As documented yesterday the "leaked" Russian non-paper which demanded constitutional reform in the Ukraine and more autonomy for its regions was at least partially accepted by Secretary of State Kerry:
In a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, their second since unsuccessful face-to-face talks on Friday in London, Kerry urged Russia "to support efforts by Ukrainians across the spectrum to address power sharing and decentralization through a constitutional reform process that is broadly inclusive and protects the rights of minorities," the State Department said.
That Kerry "urged Russia" is just a silly diversion. The idea of such changes in the Ukrainian constitution clearly came from the Russian side and were already part of the February 21 agreement which the U.S. supported coup government broke.
The Kerry call with Lavrov was followed by one between Putin and Obama. The White House readout of that call also mentions the constitution issue.
[President Obama] noted that the Ukrainian government continues to take concrete steps that would allow for the de-escalation of the crisis, particularly as it prepares for elections this Spring and undertakes constitutional reform, …
Using that acknowledgement of the Russian plan the Kremlin increased the pressure and went public with its demands:
Moscow, meanwhile, called on Ukraine to become a federal state as a way of resolving the polarization between Ukraine's western regions — which favor closer ties with the 28-nation EU — and its eastern areas, which have long ties to Russia.
In a statement Monday, Russia's Foreign Ministry urged Ukraine's parliament to call a constitutional assembly that could draft a new constitution to make the country federal, handing more power to its regions. It also said country should adopt a "neutral political and military status," a demand reflecting Moscow's concern about the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO.
Russia is also pushing for Russian to become Ukraine's state language.
In Kiev, Ukraine's new government dismissed Russia's proposal Monday as unacceptable, saying it "looks like an ultimatum."
The Ukrainian puppet government still has to learn the business. As Kerry and Obama already conceded "constitutional reform" in the Ukraine there will be no way for the puppet government to get around this. It urgently needs money and those who could possibly pay, the IMF, the U.S. and EU, will make their demands heard.
Russia could also easily escalate and help the eastern and southern regions of the Ukraine to create their own state independent of Kiev or the seek, like the Crimea, incorporation into the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian government is right to call the Russian demand an ultimatum. It is exactly that and it will have to submit to it.
But that is not yet understood. The Ukrainian parliament, those now 300+ left from 450 original lawmakers after the others fled under threats of violence, decided to mobilize the Ukrainian military and moved a whooping 12% of its total budget into reestablishing some military force. But the Ukrainian military has been neglected for over 20 years:
“It is absolutely not a combat ready force. It’s sharply underfunded, and they don’t have any real air or surface to air or capacity compared to what Russia can deploy — even though Russia is no paragon of military readiness either,” Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told FoxNews.com.
The Ukrainian troops are still mostly conscripts and the professionals are paid only half of the average Ukrainian wage. How loyal this military will be to the coup-government is yet to be seen. I do not expect it to play any significant role.
Meanwhile the U.S. as well as the EU introduced some sanctions on some Russian and Ukrainian individuals though the White House "Fact Sheet" does not even say what those sanctions are:
In response to the Russian government’s actions contributing to the crisis in Ukraine, this new E.O. lists seven Russian government officials who are being designated for sanctions. These individuals are Vladislav Surkov, Sergey Glazyev, Leonid Slutsky, Andrei Klishas, Valentina Matviyenko, Dmitry Rogozin, and Yelena Mizulina.
There seems to be no real idea why (and with what) these individuals would be sanctioned. Does it make sense to sanction people because of their "status"?
- Valentina Matviyenko: Matviyenko is being sanctioned for her status as Head of the Federation Council
- Dmitry Rogozin: Rogozin is being sanctioned for his status as the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.
- Yelena Mizulina: Mizulina is being sanctioned for her status as a State Duma Deputy.
- …
The sanctioned Russian people are all officials who are not even allowed to hold foreign assets. What is the U.S. going to do about them?
One paragraph in the "Fact Sheet" is a threat to Russian businessman and oligarchs:
The United States also will seek to hold accountable individuals who use their resources or influence to support or act on behalf of senior Russian government officials. We recognize that the Russian leadership derives significant support from, and takes action through, individuals who do not themselves serve in any official capacity. Our current focus is to identify these individuals and target their personal assets, but not companies that they may manage on behalf of the Russian state.
Whatever. Putin has some 70% of the Russians in favor of him. He does not have to be considerate of this or that oligarch. The Russians are laughing off this wet noodle assault. None of these sanctions will influence their decision making. They will publish a retaliatory list and equally meaningless sanction some U.S. and EU officials and that will be it.
The U.S. now has the unpleasant task to silence the blowhards and fascists in the Ukrainian puppet government and to push them to accept some meaningful constitution creating process. The Russian government will keep all options open in eastern and southern Ukraine until a new acceptable Ukrainian constitution is done and in place. It can for now sit back and amuse itself about the empty blustering coming out of Brussels and Washington DC.
