The United States and its appendixes seems to believe that the "isolation" of Russia with regards to Crimea is:
- feasible and
- can get Russia to withdraw from Crimea.
Both believes are obviously wrong.
It may be possible to somewhat "isolate" Iran or North Korea. But Russia is a veto wielding member of the UN Security Council and has lots of strategic nuclear weapon capabilities. The two biggest countries of the world, China as well as India, have already taken Russia's side. Economic pressure on Russia would hurt Europe and others more than it would hurt Russia.
Obama seems to see this as a personal conflict with Putin. Only an extraordinary narcissist could have such idea. It is not "Putin" who is taking back Crimea, it is Russia. No Russian president could have acted different without losing legitimacy in the eyes of his people. The White House thinking, as explained in this weeks Swoop, is therefore simply crazy:
[T]he perception is rising in the White House that, rightly or wrongly, the crisis has become a personal contest which can only be settled between Obama and President Putin. NSC officials tell us that this is both an advantage in that it lends weight to the exchanges between the two men and a drawback in that it involves Obama more intensively in the management of the crisis than he would otherwise wish.
…
As an NSC official commented to us: “Against all the odds, Obama continues to believe that he can do a deal with Putin. His telephone exchanges lead him to conclude that Putin is intent on building a position of strength from which he will then negotiate.” From talking to other high-level contacts in Washington, our sense is that Obama’s conviction that a deal is doable is not widely shared. Even in the State Department there are senior officials who are much less optimistic that Putin is interested in negotiating. The Pentagon is also skeptical …
Obama is very wrong in this.
Yes, Russia would make a deal. It has offered it several times but it seems that no one is listening. Russia wants a return to the paper signed on February 21 by Yanukovich, opposition leaders and three EU foreign ministers. That paper sets out a national unity government and a continued presidency for Yanukovich until new presidential elections this fall. Go back to that paper and Crimea may be allowed to stay as an autonomous federal entity within the Ukraine. Without any fulfillment of the Feb 21 deal the Crimea will soon be part of the Russian Federation.
Unfortunately no one has taken up Russia's offer and Obama, by threatening Russia, has already taken away his own ability to go back to that deal. The Republicans and Democratic Russiaphobes would eat him alive if he would try that now. Instead clumsy efforts are made to put "pressure" on Russia. The Kremlin will just laugh off sanctions and such. Take THIS deal or the Crimea is gone. If you can't take THIS deal, well, then the Crimea is gone.
According to this (translated from Kommersant) Putin himself had a hand in making the Feb 21 deal:
A Russian diplomatic source confirmed the statement by Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski that it was Vladimir Putin who, during a telephone conversation on February the 21st, convinced Yanukovich to make concessions to the opposition. According to this source, Vladimir Putin urged Yanukovich to abandon plans for a state of emergency and begin negotiations with the opposition to stop the bloodshed.
According to the source, President Barrack Obama and the leaders of Germany, France and Poland, requested Putin to influence Yanukovich on this matter. In return, these countries promised the Kremlin that they would ensure that the Ukrainian opposition would hold up their end of the agreement of February the 21st, which included the creation of a government of `National Unity`, constitutional reforms, early elections and surrendering the illegally acquired weapons. `Yanukovich completely fulfilled his side of the agreement but the opposition did not comply with anything`, the source said. `Now the EU and US wants us to behave like there was no agreement in the first place and `look ahead` but we will not do this.
If this is correct, and I believe it is, then the blowing up of the February 21 deal and the recognition of the coup government by the United States and the EU is another case of showing Putin and thereby Russia the dirty finger. But Russia is back. It will no longer accept such insults.
It is completely wrong by Obama to personalize the conflict. This is not about Putin or Obama at all. It is not a pissing contest and not about dick lengths. Ukraine is very near to Russia's national interest and very far away from the United States. Obama should accept that and let Russia, for once, have its interests acknowledged. Instead he is taking another step on the escalation ladder where each step up makes it much more difficult to come down again to sane grounds.