Seriously, I hope NO ONE is even slightly countenancing the assertions that the US intelligence agencies could NOT possibly know what the hell Putin's response would be.

It's such utter laughable effing bullshit a 4 year old would be sent to his room for making such claims.

The US intelligence agencies are obviously run by murderous war criminals who can be counted on to make sure the agencies they head will fall into line and say whatever TPTB need to be said - cf. Iraq's WMD, 9/11 fairy tale, etc - at any given time.

However, that doesn't mean intelligent people should entertain childish notions that they don't have more information than a bunch of people casually browsing the Internet.

Yeah, they just had no freaking idea what Putin would think about their little adventure? GMAFB

Hey, war criminals, at least quit insulting our intelligence while you continue on your murderous campaign, mkay?

Posted by: JSorrentine | Mar 9 2014 13:32 utc | 101

The financial sector and the commodities traders - world - want, in this situation, as little disturbance as possible, and for some ‘deal’ (Save Ukraine! - the whole of it of course) to be worked out. This is evident even in certain factions in the US. Cool heads want their hot-money flow. However, they have limited power, imho, partly because for now they prefer not to use it.

Saving the Ukr. would be an IMF deal, the usual, familiar.

Though this time in cahoots with the EU in some kind of ‘partnership’ thingie, or that was, still is?, the plan that was shaping up imho. Recall, the EU is financially and militarily weak to non existent, because divided, dependent on its member states, not organized, etc. The IMF is a separate body, controlled, officially, by the US. (Which is why it always has a poodle EU head.)

Yats is 100% on board and announced that straight-forwardly as soon as he opened his mouth. Beyond his personal ideology, it is absolutely clear that the pain of austerity following a possible ‘bail out’ to be imposed could only be so by OK I’ll use the term a ‘fascist’ Gvmt., aka varied forms of jackboot legislation and action on the ground.

Therefore the alliance with, blanket term, the rabid right.

Once entered into, that choice flowers with a force of its own, and various actors enter the breach.

Svoboda is an established political party, one may not like, the Right Sektor is a motley collective of informal groups, mostly para-military.

News_ Yarosh (Right Sektor) will be candidate for Pres:

http://tinyurl.com/lhg7bnt

See this interview of Yarosh, at Sean’s Russian Blog, 4 Feb. 2014. (Eng.) for more info:

http://tinyurl.com/pkenama

Backstory.

Yuschenko and Yulia of the Braids had a deal with the IMF, and they ‘stole’ the money. Oops, after 60% was spent, and no IMF conditions were applied, the IMF withheld the last tranche. (From Swiss press, who knows. As Yuschenko gingerly sported a Western-ally hat this, if true, is not bruited about.)

So Yanukovitch faced stiff conditions and impossible guarantees and demands from the IMF, and then the EU offered a dastardly proposition. Which, imho, they stupidly expected him to accept, or at least pretended such. Squeezed into a corner. He could not agree, just like his predecessors, the pain / deals / strictures etc. imposed would have seen him out in the dark. And he could not steal, that was done with.

Was all this designed to spark the crisis? Maybe. Or just hapless stupid meddling and lame power-point strategies and dumb discussions over drinks?

Posted by: Noirette | Mar 9 2014 13:40 utc | 102

It is as if in Greece, the IMF, the EU bondholders and banksters, the globalized financial sector, Goldman Sachs etc., the Greek shipping magnates, the Orthodox Church, corrupt pols not just on the take but as stakeholders and manipulators in both private and public enterprise, in bed with Corporations of all kinds, and Golden Dawn got together to govern the country. In Greece, that hasn’t been entirely successful.

Maybe better luck in Ukraine?

Posted by: Noirette | Mar 9 2014 13:55 utc | 103

The financial sector and the commodities traders - world - want, in this situation, as little disturbance as possible, and for some ‘deal’ (Save Ukraine! - the whole of it of course) to be worked out. This is evident even in certain factions in the US. Cool heads want their hot-money flow. However, they have limited power, imho, partly because for now they prefer not to use it.

I'm no expert but in my opinion commodities brokers especially, but also Financial Traders, can make a hell of a lot of money on the back of "disturbances" like this.

"Disturbance" can create shortages or, even better, the impression of potential shortages in the future - that's where the big money is to be made

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 13:57 utc | 104

98) Share prices are too damn high, just now Noirette, better a crash, then you can buy again.

Overheard a trader about a year ago in Frankfurt, "now comes the stupid money"

Posted by: somebody | Mar 9 2014 14:07 utc | 105

98) the role of right wing movements / criminal networks is quite intriguing, as intriguing as the role of Jihadis.

I guess anything goes. They know they cannot dislodge power elites with "peaceful movements".

Posted by: somebody | Mar 9 2014 14:12 utc | 106

> brb at 100.

Yes they can make money, of course, on up and down swings and the like, and do. Typically for stocks, shares, etc.

But don’t forget if there are even any minor shut downs of ‘real world’ production (gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel...) they will suffer in the long run because trade is stalled, halted, or collapses, their skim is decimated.

For ex. the oil for food program (Iraq) pissed them off, and sanctions on Iran selling its energy were circumvented.

And war is anathema to them. They need smooth banking exchange facilities, smooth cooperation, international agreements respected, the free flow of capital and workers, and so on.

Posted by: Noirette | Mar 9 2014 14:19 utc | 107

But don’t forget if there are even any minor shut downs of ‘real world’ production (gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel...) they will suffer in the long run because trade is stalled, halted, or collapses, their skim is decimated.

Wait a minute, I'm not sure whose "gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel" you are referring to here

Are we talking about Ukrainian gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel resources?

OR are we talking about gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel resources that trace back to Western Gangsters?

"gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel" resources that trace back to Western Gangsters will probably become more valuable if supply of Ukrainian "gas, oil, coal, timber, wheat, corn, copper, industrial metals, cement, steel" resources are disrupted.

this simple economic formula applies both in the short-term and the long-term..

But of course several Ukrainian Oligarchs appear to be in cahoots with the Western Gangsters, (for the moment anyway) - what can we conclude from that?

It seems likely to me that they collude with Western Gangsters because they hope to gain even more local (and regional, and maybe eventually global too) political control than they have already, once the dust settles.

That certainly would be worth some short- or medium-term financial losses, if in the future by taking a hit now they can acquire even more political power for themselves.

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 14:45 utc | 108

Media Pick of Oligarchs in Ukraine

Business tycoons are just cameleons, some jumped in an early stage on the EU bandwagon.

Media Grab In Ukraine

(Kyiv Post) June 27, 2013 - United Media Holdings (UMH) is believed to have been sold for an estimated $400-$500 million to Serhiy Kurchenko, whose meteoric rise to prominence started in 2012 when Forbes Ukraine – part of UMH – published a detailed investigation into the previously unknown businessman.

Now he owns it, including the nation’s most read news magazine, Korrespondent, as well as four other publications, five radio networks, a cooking TV channel, and a retail chain for print media.

UMH says that combined, it leads the print business segment, and accounts for 27 percent of Ukraine’s readership and leads on the advertising market. Online, the media group boasts 6 million monthly web visitors as the nation’s leader with more than 45 percent of the audience and 29 percent of the advertising market.

Only billionaire oligarch Viktor Pinchuk’s StarLightMedia Group, which owns ICTV, STB, Noviy Kanal, among others, is larger, according to Russian market researcher RBC.

Prior to the sale, UMH was the only media group whose owner was not an oligarch with interests outside the media market.

Note:The Kyiv Post is an opposition newspaper owned by oligarch Mohammad Zahoor.

○ Factional struggle intensifies between Ukraine’s oligarchs – Dec. 2013

Posted by: Oui | Mar 9 2014 15:03 utc | 109

Libya is a good example - Libyan crude is some of the best that there is.

The Libyan fiasco caused prices to rise, because supplies of Libyan crude were disrupted, making alternative sources of supply more valuable for whom ever it is that controls those alternative sources.

Now, in 2010 (or possibly earlier) the US Military was apparently publicly warning of "major oil shortages in the near-term." This was taken by some as confirmation that the US Mil accepts and prepares for Peak Oil.

In that Guardian article the US Military seems to claim that production will fall between 2011 and 2015

it's two main points seemed to be

• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day
  
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

Gazing into it's crystal ball, the US Mil apparently decided to prepare for these "future shocks" by buying up plentiful supplies of Oil at a relatively low price, compared to Post-ZATO-attack prices, before the predicted shortages occurred.

Funnily enough, within approx 12 months of that article the US military was involved in bombing the shit out of Libya, which as I said earlier, is/was a producer of some of the highest grade, and most sought after, crude in the world

I presume that you are as impressed as I myself am, at the US military's almost miraculous, nay superhuman, prophetic ability when it comes to subjects such as the likely short-term future price of oil? :)

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 15:03 utc | 110

Found some links of foreign mercenaries operating in the Ukraine

Popular uprising looming in eastern Ukraine

(RT) - But even the appearance of mercenaries in the center of Donetsk did not stop the citizens from protesting against self-proclaimed government in Kiev.

Early Thursday morning [06.03.2014] a special group of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) that arrived from Kiev conducted a hit-and-run operation and arrested Pavel Gubarev on charges of an attempt of power seizure, an exactly the same accusation used by the opposition leader against the self-proclaimed government in Kiev.

According to the ‘National levy’ webpage on Facebook, Gubarev was convoyed to the capital Kiev. Police also put under arrest several dozens of activists. []

The same day, Governor Serhij Taruta arrived to Donetsk and held a meeting with region’s new police chief also appointed by Kiev. [Taruta is part-owner of the Industrial Union of Donbas (ISD) – re: assassinations of leadership]

Yet late at night citizens of Donetsk attempted to storm local headquarters of SSU, demanding to release their leader. They also managed to stop and topple prison truck carrying unknown number of arrested activists.

More to follow …

Posted by: Oui | Mar 9 2014 15:09 utc | 111

[UN]biased Reporting over Envoy Robert Serry

I listened to Dutch radio interview with envoy Serry on the day of the incident. An experienced diplomat, he took the intimidation in stride and never felt to be in physical danger. He sought safety in a cafe and made some calls to the UN HQ. In the meantime a 'spontaneous' demonstration gathered outside the cafe to satisfy the foreign reporters. At the airport, he was kept inside the car for some time until safety was guaranteed by MPs from the Crimean parliament.

○ The Guardian: UN envoy to Crimea quits post after anger of pro-Moscow demonstrators
○ TRNS - UN Envoy Threatened In Crimea, Agrees To End Visit
○ InterFax-Ukraine: UN envoy held hostage in Simferopol
○ DSG Eliasson's telephone press conference from Kyiv, Ukraine
○ UN News: Armed men in Crimea threaten UN envoy; Ban dispatches HR official Šimonovic

Yesterday, in the Crimea pro- and anti-Russia demonstrators avoided physical clashes. The minority groups in the Crimea felt emboldoned by this and will continue to voice their opinion to stay with a united Ukraine. A century of history filled with grievances are playing out in today's threshold for a choice between East and West.

On the contrary, in the city of Donetsk, fascist thugs were transported to a pro-Russia demonstration and beat-up Ukrainians. Didn't see the incident covered in Western media. A sampling of opinion in the Washington Post.

○ US Embassy to Kyiv, Ukraine: Truth [Правда in Soviet rhetoric]

Posted by: Oui | Mar 9 2014 15:11 utc | 112

Wow, lots to ponder and really it all comes down to 3 words - Control thru Debt.

Posted by: TikTok | Mar 9 2014 15:39 utc | 113

Putin took Krim to stop flooting Ukraine with zusa weapons. Without selling weapons Ukraine war makes no sense.
Kiews faschist have no acess to Black See.

Posted by: ZX | Mar 9 2014 15:44 utc | 114

....
The US intelligence agencies are obviously run by murderous war criminals who can be counted on to make sure the agencies they head will fall into line and say whatever TPTB need to be said - cf. Iraq's WMD, 9/11 fairy tale, etc - at any given time.
....
Posted by: JSorrentine | Mar 9, 2014 9:32:10 AM | 97

That's more or less true. The crux of the trick is that intel agencies are gagged by convention and don't have a public profile i.e. they report to their bosses - not to the public. So if the intel is inconvenient, TPTB just ignores the intel, makes up its own intel and ATTRIBUTES the fake intel to "our intel agencies".
Rumsfeld's Office Of Special Plans and Colon Powell's intel nonsense, pre-Iraq, being classic examples.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 9 2014 15:56 utc | 115

Re: What did the US/NATO intel communities expect Putin to do? A couple of points.

1) Intel people and politicians are not exactly the same. Intel might have warned Obama an co of some of Putin's counter moves, who might have thought they were over-cautious, covering their asses or too timid.

2) They may have expected a different reaction...maybe they thought and hoped Putin would launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine in which they could paint him as a war monger and then draw him into a draining Vietnam style war. For a couple of days it seemed like Putin might actually do that.

3) Or maybe they thought he would just back down and swallow it as he did in 2004-5 after the Orange 'revolution.' After all, they have gotten used to total media control and thus control of the narrative. That is no longer as true as it was, but large bureaucracies are slow to adjust to new realities. And perhaps they thought they could whip up the US/EU public into a nationalistic fervor. Watching the media, you would get the impression they succeeded. But judging by day to day conversations, it seems they have only gotten that small part of the population that still thinks the Iraq war was a good idea.

4) I guess they may have thought Putin would be able to incite secession in Crimea and perhaps some other eastern provinces without firing a shot, and at the same time assert his own narrative about what is happening. If so, its hard to see what they are gaining. A new cold war for arms industry? Possible, but it seems the public is not at all motivated to have another cold war. Getting Europe to fear Russia and thus run into NATO's hands? Maybe, but it's hard to see how the former East block states could have been any more submissive to the US than they were already.

Whatever they are getting, take a look at what they are losing: They are being publicly bested by another power. They are losing the impression that they are the law in this world. They are loosing enormous leverage in their negotiations with Iran. They are losing their ability to intimidate weaker countries who might think they can gain protection from Russia/China.

Those loses are seriously important to the US/NATO. That is why they are finding it hard to back down. And yet, if they don't it will only get worse for them. They are like a bad poker player with a weak hand who insists on putting more money in the pot, certain that he can bluff a player with a straight flush.

Posted by: Lysander | Mar 9 2014 16:06 utc | 116

gemini333 @92

I really do believe they were caught by surprise (and also don't particularly care, bc "American Exceptionalism" = we're terrific and will "win" no matter what). First off, it's Amateur Hour at the top (Obama? Samantha Powers? Give me a break.) Secondly, our whole system is really not unlike Ukraine with all the Oligarchs, including those funding the (always rightwing) think tanks with their rent-a-scholar propagandists. It's just more complex bc there are so many layers of bureaucrats, contractors and NGOs, all beholden to moneyed interests.

And finally, there's the stupid factor: you don't rise in a bureaucracy -- and the military/security complex certainly qualifies here -- by being smart, you rise by toeing "the company line". So, for example, the NSA can collect anything they wish on anyone anywhere, but have yet to come up with anything meaningful except material for blackmail and control, because what few analysts remain know nothing about the rest of the world and are too stupid to analyze anything anyhow.

Posted by: Nora | Mar 9 2014 16:11 utc | 117

bevin @95

Your last two paragraphs really, really nail it. Thank you.

Posted by: Nora | Mar 9 2014 16:13 utc | 118

Again, this whole "US intel not knowing" fatuous canard is just that: effing bullsh!te.

Besides lending further credence to the nonsense narrative that America is REACTING not causing the events in Ukraine the "stupid intel" narrative also starts up the whole "plausible deniability" narrative so that the war criminals - i.e., politicians et al - can continue to shield themselves against any embarrassment - that does imply them experiencing the emotion of shame, however - or future culpability in regards to the present crimes which they are committing - i.e., fomenting civil unrest in a sovereign nation, overthrowing another elected government, bringing into power neo-Nazi fascists, etc.

To reiterate, the American war criminals may be f*cking insane and their larger goals of total world domination may be f*cking stupid but that should not be interpreted as them NOT being masterfully devious and clever especially as they have nearly unlimited budgets and the massive MSM propaganda machine fully behind them.

John Wayne Gacy and other serial killers were very insane yet very clever in their day to day avoidance of getting caught.

The same principle should be applied to the US war criminals or we start playing THEIR game which is to begin to let them off the hook for being completely and totally responsible for this latest round of needless suffering.

Posted by: JSorrentine | Mar 9 2014 16:26 utc | 119

@93

Relatedly, there is little evidence that a clear majority of Ukrainians support integration into the European Union — despite the fact that the turn away from the European Union sparked the initial protests. While different polls show varying levels of support for European integration (e.g. this recent one from SOCIS), most show around 40-45 percent support for European integration as compared to about 30 to 40 percent support for the Customs Union – a plurality for Europe but hardly a clear mandate.

Who are the protesters in Ukraine?

Posted by: tgs | Mar 9 2014 16:27 utc | 120

Again:

Adding, there hasn't been a crisis big enough yet to give the US criminal elite pause in their evil-doing: Iraq War, GWOT, Syria, Financial Crisis, BP Oil Spill, NOTHING has made them be more cautious.

They just break shit and know that they'll have the resources and time to bend things their way in the end.

Posted by: JSorrentine | Mar 9 2014 16:36 utc | 121

JSorrentine @ 116 The problem is, they don't care. Who, exactly, can bell the cat? No one, right now.

Bullies don't have to be smart or careful, they just have to watch out for bigger bullies -- and that is precisely what they're trying to prevent.

Posted by: Nora | Mar 9 2014 16:42 utc | 122

@112 brilliant breakdown of Putin's options.

It is interesting to ponder why Russia did not also move into the Donbas region, and the answers are likely what you stated. Porous borders would allow any and all troublemakers to get in and fight Russian troops and pro-Russian militia. And such a war would be difficult to keep up, horrible for the locals, and ultimately offer only, if victory could be had, only a Pyrrhic victory to the Russians. This would only be done, I presume, if the Russian population came under threat and Russia could make a clear claim to being a peacekeeper. But the threat of doing so should remain, and this is very important. The Russians, I'm sure, are supporting local forces in the Donbas, and should be ready to strike and quickly pull out if necessary.

It was positively vital that the Russians invest the Crimea. It allows an excellent defensive position against the war-fighting the west uses today - namely, violent insurgency. It would both have been the worst place to allow to be invested by the ultra-Nationalists, not just because they would have surely tried to eject the Russians from Sevastopol, but because they would be able to control access and bring all sorts of weaponry to intimidate the population. Now, this is absolutely impossible. There is no possibility of any great amount of weapons or explosives being got to the Crimea by the ultra-nationalists or their Tartar allies. The Russians government has the support of the great majority of the local populace - and not just the Russians there, but anyone interested in peace there.

One thing is clear, the Ukrainian ultra-nationalists are waging a war inside Ukraine with all the viciousness of the drug war gangsters of Mexico or the fanatics in Syria. Burnings alive, torture and summary executions over political and ethnic motives are reported.

But what else should we expect from allies of the CIA?

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 9 2014 16:45 utc | 123

Excerpt from Factional struggle intensifies between Ukraine’s oligarchs posted earlier by "Oui | Mar 9, 2014 11:03:16 AM | 105"

Business and official public life in Ukraine are all determined by a handful of immensely rich oligarchs. While some of them, such as the mining barons in the Donets Basin and the energy-dependent chemical concerns have historically oriented to Moscow, the employers in western Ukraine are closer to the EU. But for the oligarchs, what is more important than the question of orientation to the West or East is increasing their wealth and influence.

Many regard cooperation with the EU as a better means to further their riches, leading to tensions in the governing party last month, when Yanukovych announced Ukraine would not be approving the Association Pact with the EU.

Rinat Achmetov is the country's richest man and rules over an empire built on coal and steel. According to Forbes, he possesses a fortune of $15.4 billion, and heads the so-called “Donets Clan”, which includes President Yanukovych.

The “Donets-ites” also include Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and the chief of the national security and defence council, Andriy Klyuyev.

The multibillionaire Achmetov lives mainly in London, at his residence "Hyde Park Number One", from which he manages not only his industrial and financial enterprises, but also controls some 50 parliamentary deputies in the Kiev parliament.

A second group of oligarchs in the presidential camp is directed by Dmytro Firtash, a multimillionaire (with an estimated fortune of $700 million), who is a close ally of the chief of staff Sergei Lyovochkin. This group has its base in the chemical industry and in the trade in gas. Its television and radio broadcast group Inter, the country's largest, supports the opposition around Vitali Klitschko, much to the anger of the "Donets-ites", and thereby exerts pressure on Yanukovych.

Both groups have been fighting for months, the conservative German daily FAZ reports, under the headline "Viktor Yanukovych in the hands of the oligarchs". Each group accuses the other of behaving like Moscow's puppets, and each presents itself as made up of glowing Europeans.

Representatives of the "Donets-ites" point to the fact that the "Firtash Group" receives cheap natural gas from Russia for their "Eastchem" chemical concern, and ask tellingly what Moscow is expecting in return. Firtash supporters, like the deputy Inna Bohoslovska, whose resignation seemed to some to herald an uprising against the president, have turned the tables and claim that key figures in the Donets Clan are Moscow's puppets.

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 16:46 utc | 124

A second group of oligarchs in the presidential camp is directed by Dmytro Firtash, a multimillionaire (with an estimated fortune of $700 million), who is a close ally of the chief of staff Sergei Lyovochkin. This group has its base in the chemical industry and in the trade in gas. Its television and radio broadcast group Inter, the country's largest, supports the opposition around Vitali Klitschko, much to the anger of the "Donets-ites", and thereby exerts pressure on Yanukovych.

Interesting that the group of Oligarchs which "trade in gas" and also own much Media in Ukraine, allied themselves to the ZATO Gangster side.

Seems to me that these Gas traders stand to profit a great deal should Russia hit back by playing with Gas Supplies/Prices in Ukraine

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 16:56 utc | 125

Libya authorizes use of force against North Korean-flagged tanker

Excerpt
"Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said on Saturday the military would bomb the 37,000-tonne Morning Glory if it tried to leave the port, one of Libya's biggest oil terminals . . . . .

. . . . In January, the Libyan navy fired on a Maltese-flagged tanker that it said had tried to load oil from the protesters in Es Sider, successfully chasing it away.

It is very unusual for an oil tanker flagged in secretive North Korea to operate in the Mediterranean, shipping sources said. NOC says the tanker is owned by a Saudi company.

It has changed ownership in the past few weeks and had previously been called Gulf Glory, according to a shipping source."

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 17:02 utc | 126

Libya's government has tried to end a wave of protests at oil ports and fields that have slashed oil output to 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd in July.

Posted by: brb | Mar 9 2014 17:03 utc | 127

The oil shipment has nothing at all to do with North Korea, except for the flag. It is a red herring being pushed by the western media. There is no telling where the ship is bound for - Libya has been murdered, and all the vultures are landing to feed on the carcass.

But such craven murder and theft leaves our resident dogshit troll brb/foff/stfu/hmm "impressed...by the superhuman ability" of such thieves (@106), right?

"Analysts have said it is unlikely the ship is owned or controlled by Pyongyang."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26495625

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 9 2014 17:53 utc | 128

The massaging of truth never stops and yet it seems so desperate.

Just turned on CNN to get the latest MSM and C. Bernstein was on with two comments in the space of less than one minute - Putin seems to be winging it in his escalation of events and then Putin used Sochi as cover for his nefarious Ukraine activities - a suggestion of forethought?

Here's a question re the US Military - knowing Crimea was such a red line for Russia (as discussed above) and exports of NG from USA ultimately not going to happen(peak oil and shale limits aware guy here) would the real ambition be military security for future trade routes and moar budget money?

Posted by: sam s | Mar 9 2014 21:35 utc | 129

brb125, the gas traders will lose their ass if they have no gas from Russia to 'trade' unless they have a pipeline to fracked gas from US. Aligning with Europe right now makes them pretty vulnerable, should the coup govt in Kiev sign the Association agreement with EU, Russia will certainly do something with supply/price of gas. And certainly try to cut out the gas trader middlemen. My guess is the gas traders are trying to play both ends, now they've seen Putin's resolve on Crimea.

Posted by: okie farmer | Mar 9 2014 21:36 utc | 130

@100 Thanks, brb. While I was reading that excerpt, I didn't even have to look at the link to know where it came from. I'm familiar with that source because I used to be a regular reader of her work. Unfortunately, I no longer do. Anyone familiar with Edmonds will know why. Still, there's some useful information in that screed/attack. I'll continue to follow the work of TheRealNews as long as I feel they are putting out good information from sources who are otherwise absent from mainstream news in the US. I have no dog in this fight, no attachment or connection to them, so if they seem too slanted or compromised, I'll drop them from my reading/watching list, just as I did BoilingFrogsPost.

When I said "independent" I meant politically independent, not financially, because there is probably no such thing in news organizations. Another source that I highly recommend is DemocracyNow and they might have similar "family foundations" in who support them. I'm not all that concerned about it. It's a fact of life in journalism. I'm most interested in the work they do. I'll disclaim that by saying there might be cases where the funding sources or foundations are so offensive to me that I won't read/watch a media organization or for other reasons related to their funding. But I'm not convinced by what I've read above to ditch them.

Posted by: gemini333 | Mar 9 2014 22:10 utc | 131

@129 Chevron is way ahead of you okie. They've got a deal for fracking in Ukraine.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/06/ukraine-crisis-great-power-oil-gas-rivals-pipelines

Posted by: dh | Mar 9 2014 22:34 utc | 132

@131 I should say Chevron THINK they have a deal. Anybody's guess what they have now.

Posted by: dh | Mar 9 2014 22:47 utc | 133

I have to adapt/extend my interpretation of the ukraine events and the situation there.

Again: In the Dnieper-Donets basin there is one of Europes largest shale gas deposits.

Now, I know next to nothing about oil and gas exploration but from what I've heard and read, fracking/shale gas is a rather short lived thing; typically, I'm told, it's a matter of 8 or 10 years and then a badly disturbed lands is left.

This finally explains zusas/zeus motivation but also means that the weztern countries haven undertaken and tried a direct and clear attack against Russias national security interests.

The logic behind it is roughly the following:

By getting all or at least a large part of the gas they need from ukraine zeu can - for some time - be not or way less dependent on Russian gas and also play a very hard round of negotiations.
Of course this is meant to very significantly damage Russias economic core and to very significantly weaken Russia and her position. (Ab)using that zeu plans to blackmail Russia to either bow to zeus dictum or to face a situation where weztern corporation take over core Russian businesses for pennies on the dollar.
Which, of course, very nicely coincides with zusas interest.

The point is not whether that plan can work - it can't - but that zusa/zeu had and clearly demonstrate the will to very seriously harm Russia through a criminal attack.

I therefore adapt my interpretation.

- Russia will - in one way or another - make sure that eastern ukraine either gets way more autonomy and is controlled by ethnic Russians.
- Possibly Russia will enter into, stay in and defend all eastern and southern ukrainian regions incl. Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy. This step, of course would be welcome by large parts of the polpulation and would almost certainly be based on request for help by yanukovich and such perfectly legal.
Quite certainly any pro-kiev protesters would be taken care of by the population at an early stage.
- I assume that slightly earlier "ukrainian" Berkut and other forces would quietly enter kiev and cut the head of the "new government" off, i.e. arrest or shoot the top layer of traitors in government, agencies, and institutions.
While it would be rather insignificant per se for Russia, Russia can not tolerate a neighbour to be run by weztern controlled traitors, criminals, and terrorists.
- I consider it very, very unlikely for Russia to simply "annect" the eastern and southern regions (although they probably desire that). It seems almost certain to me that Russia will rather advise them to and strongly support them in declaring and building a new state.
I also expect Russia to demand that that new state guarantees the will being and fair treatment of non-Russian ethnic people, possibly demanding that to be included in the constitution. Accordingly I expect some part of no-Russian ethnic citizens to leave the new state as well as some western ukrainian citizens to enter it to live there. A percentage around 5-15% in both directions seems realistic.
- Russia would again not act so much themselves but rather stay largely defensive and decidely and materially support local (ethnic Russian) militias to swiftly take over military and police.
- A quite major part of western ukraines military will stay hesitating or even turn themselves or to Russia. It seems likely that quite some units will even turn against the terrorist "government".

While I'm quite certain that zusa will not engage directly or risk a confrontation (other than making noise as usual) I expect some puppets, most probably poland to enter in one format or another into weztern ukraine to "help" them. I do not expect serious fighting, though. polands actions will be more driven by their old pipe-dream of a large(r) and influential poland and business interests.

I furthermore see a risk of higher than 50% of China provoking a conflict on their end. That risk will be roughly proportional to the zato countries hostility re. ukraine.

Looking at the military aspects, the situation hasn't changed. Russia has a very strong advantage and zato has only quite few troups of doubtful quality (polish, baltic) and force.
It seems probable that Russia will, if they choose to, enter/concentrate on three axes, rather north, Kharkiv, taking also care of Sumy and Luhansk, center, Donets and Dnipropetrovsk and finally south, Mikolajev and Odessa.

I also expect some price to pay within zeu and I see the visit of Gabriel (rather than FM Steinmeier or merkel) at Putin as an indicator of that.

Maybe I will have more later.

Ceterum censeo israel americanamque vehementer delenda esse!

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 9 2014 22:56 utc | 134

@100 brb, there might be some decent info in that excerpt but the source is one that I've lost all confidence in.

Posted by: gemini333 | Mar 10 2014 2:08 utc | 135