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Ukraine: Is The Crimea Referendum A Judoka’s Ruse?
Yesterday I wrote:
Without any fulfillment of the Feb 21 deal the Crimea will soon be part of the Russian Federation. […] Take THIS deal or the Crimea is gone. If you can't take THIS deal, well, then the Crimea is gone.
Thinking through that again it turns out that I may well have been wrong.
Putin has a black belt in judo and in several other martial arts. His demand for the "February 21 deal or the Crimea goes to Russia" may have been a ruse to set up the enemy for his winning throw.
Ukraine currently has a majority of Russian speakers. Without the Crimea they would likely be a minority. As Crimea is quite dry and poor the Ukraine subsidizes it with allegedly some $1 billion per year by delivering water, electricity and heavily subsidized gas. Whatever the exact sum it is certainly more than the $90 million Russia currently pays for the use of its Crimean bases. Getting the Crimea would cost Russia quite a chunk of money. Would it really be better for Russia to have the Crimea in its federation than to have it close by but as an autonomous area within the Ukraine?
Christopher Westdal, a former Canadian ambassador to the Ukraine and to Russia, argues that it would be better for Russia to let the Crimea in Ukraine as a "hook" to keep the Ukraine in its political realm:
Apart from the lease-secured Sevastopol base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Crimea would be quite a mixed blessing [for Russia] to receive. Sixty per cent of its people love Mother Russia, more or less – but forty per cent don’t, some decidedly, particularly the long-suffering Tatars, whom Stalin, recall, expelled and tormented. As well, it would cost a fortune to relieve the poor, arid peninsula’s natural dependence on the Ukrainian mainland for water, power and communications.
Why not instead, I’d ask the [Russian] president, keep uncontested control and the Fleet’s base, but let Kiev keep Crimea officially, in name alone – a chronic migraine for a weak neighbour?
Conversely Westdal argues that it would be better for the Ukraine and coup government in Kiev to let the Crimea go:
On the other hand, were I Ukrainian, advising President Arseniy Yatseniuk, I think I’d make the case that the country would be better off without Crimea, better off without its problems – and without its heavy hook. Ukraine without Crimea would still border Russia, of course, and would still have to eschew NATO, lest Moscow make use of its just-proven capacity to destabilize eastern regions and to make the economic and political life of the whole country miserable. Without Crimea, though, Ukrainians, protected by neutrality, would be freer to find their own way, to master more of their fate, to get on with their neighbours and their lives, to make them better, at last.
This makes a lot of sense to me. Russia would indeed be better off by letting the Crimea stay within Ukraine. The Ukraine would indeed be better off by letting the Crimea go.
But the Ukrainian government no longer has that choice. The coup prime minister and Victoria "fuck the EU" Nuland darling Arseniy Yatsenyuk has set the mark:
“This is our land,” Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a crowd gathered at the Kyiv statue to writer and nationalist Taras Shevchenko. “Our fathers and grandfathers have spilled their blood for this land. And we won’t budge a single centimetre from Ukrainian land. Let Russia and its president know this.”
Earlier Yatsenyuk had already conceded that the Crimea should get more autonomy:
Yatsenyuk said Crimea must remain part of Ukraine, but may be granted more local powers. He said was in favor of establishing a special task force "to consider what kind of additional autonomy the Crimean Republic could get."
The White House and its "western" allies have also insisted that Crimea stays with Ukraine. There is no way now that the puppet Yatsenyuk and his puppeteers can take that back. If they want Crimea why not make them take it (while adding some hefty conditions to it)?
And here comes the trick in the Russian plan. This is what voters in Crimea must decide on this Sunday:
The questions on the ballot, as released by the Crimean parliament on its website, will be: “Do you support reuniting Crimea with Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation?” and “Do you support restoring the Crimean Republic’s 1992 Constitution and status within Ukraine?” The second option refers to a law that gives the region the right to determine how much authority to delegate to Kiev.
Those binary questions were certainly agreed upon in Moscow. What happens if the majority (as counted :-)) goes for option two: "Restoring the Crimean Republic’s 1992 Constitution and status within Ukraine". This would, if strongly negotiated with Kiev, give the Crimea back all the strong autonomy that was unilaterally taken away by Kiev during several constitutional revisions since 1992. What can the U.S., always preaching "democracy", say against a highly visible free vote if the result looks, on a cursory view, like its preferred outcome? Would it then call the vote illegitimate or illegal?
Such a Crimea, with additional autonomy that the puppet already somewhat conceded, could likely be able block a NATO membership for Ukraine. It could probably block the EU association agreement. It could hinder many overt moves the government in Kiev could otherwise take against Russian interests. Crimea could make, autonomously, a new agreement for the Russian military bases and Russia would keep its troops on the ground.
For other issues, like influence over a new Ukrainian government, Russia has still many other cards to play – from gas (non-)deliveries and prices to a possible intervention to "save Russian compatriots" in eastern Ukraine.
So is the whole bluster about the Crimea from the Russian side the judoka's ruse to further, and for the longterm, bind the Ukraine to Russia via the even deeper hook that a more autonomous Crimea within Ukraine would be?
Ukraine currently has a majority of Russian speakers.
This is incorrect, as all my previous referenced posts showed.
In any case as most are bilingual or even tri-lingual (regional dialect, German, Polish, English..), it makes no sense to talk in these terms.
What is the case though, is that many if not all identity issues and political allegiances and attitudes, historical roots, in the Ukr. have been collapsed onto language issues.
Vs. geographical belonging – Lviv, brown “fascist” bastion vs. Domesk for ex.; not race or in this case ‘ethnic origin’, not religion, and above all not class – income. All of which topics need to be avoided, for national unity, covering up, and PC reasons.
So, whatever nos. one looks at in the MSM or the like, they are most often skewed by bad survey questions, political agendas, etc.
One map for ex. shows 98 plus % of Ukrainian speakers, that can be accomplished easily, and be ‘correct’ simply by taking certain no. into account.
The result is of course totally misleading. I’ll link it below, it is rubbish. (The 50% mirage: e.g. in one county, you have 49 % who prefer vanilla, 51 % who prefer chocolate, so that is a chocolate Oblast. Heh!) .. An effort to show that Ukranian is really the supremo majority language.
For Russian speakers, that can’t be done, because they are in fact in a minority. Even if the trend in the past 10 years has been towards Russification, that is another topic, which I also posted briefly about.
Afaik, which is not much, that Crimea is subsidised as you say b, is right. It is an important point which has been neglected. It is one reason, unstated, for Crimea and others to embrace Mother Russia, but one might make that argument about all Ukranians: they seek some kind of external support from one of the two super powers.. Ukranians have been coerced, and manipulated into that stance. I doubt many Ukranians are happy with that.. Ukranians can’t even be considered as ppl who could run their own country, they are broke, they need to embrace Mother Russia, or submit to EU freedoms, i.e. rules and strictures…
There are no alternative ‘opposition’ parties in the Ukr. at all, they have been knocked away. (The Union types – workers – or leftists with a red flag were immediately run out of Maidan by everyone else. Beaten badly, expelled. And they were not communists, imho, but anarchists. Not sure?)
> based on the question “native language?” whatever that means, 2001 : http://tinyurl.com/q6rrjjw
Posted by: Noirette | Mar 10 2014 19:26 utc | 14
WAIT FOR A VISIT ! Or methods to combat misinformation maydanovskoy in Donetsk
March 10 , 20:05 image_print
Dear friends and colleagues ! We all see what is happening in the information field : there we just lose. We live in the information age of the absurd. In the era of worship “celestial hundred “, when mentioning that a normal person has a feeling that can be described as a symbiosis of disgust , indignation and the gag reflex . At a time when real heroes trampled modern Ukraine , the men of the Internal Troops and special forces Berkut . We live in an era where everything is turned upside down and presented as it should be. We are in an information blockade ! Our thousands of meetings , but it is presented in such a way that it’s a few hundred people. Crimes committed against us , but we also expose and aggressors. We are not in favor, because we resist . Our opponents do not like the fact that we are self-sufficient that we know its value, we will not give up without a fight. In a move against us dirtiest tricks psevdozhurnalistiki registered . No wonder that journalists called the fourth branch of government . But we struggle with the information blockade . We , if you think there are forces and means . And how will my story below, you are capable of much .
I want to tell you today , by the pro-Russian activists Donetsk protest movement, was uncovered and foiled psevdozhurnalista disinformation activities that distort reality.
As you know, in Donetsk 09.03.2014 , hosted the most massive rally in the history of the country’s independence . The meeting gathered and consolidated about 50 thousand inhabitants of Donetsk . Everything was very well organized . Gathered on Lenin Square people held a rally expressed their views on the current and orderly psevdovlasti proceeded to the place where he was scheduled to speak with a German boy fighting a residence and presidential ambitions Vitali Klitschko . As it turned out , Vitaly refused to meet with voters . As was announced in the crowd of protesters come Vitaly prevented objective reasons , particularly convulsive contraction of the sphincter and the lack of nearby U.S. military base . Someone even said he saw Vitaly riding a bicycle in the direction of … No, not in the direction that you are mentally uttered , and towards out of town . Thunderous applause activists for conspiracy Vitali was renamed. From now decided to call it a pedal . “For” votes to 120 people , 400 in the minutes made by analogy with the current Verkhovna Rada. All legal. Reforms priynyato !
Provide all possible assistance to our project!
And now, amid all the idyll and the rule of law in a closed radio channel there was information that one of the journalists rally and removes hidden video series goes directly to the live broadcast on the Internet and one of the canals . Shooting was with this perspective that was not visible mass . But is not it even . All this was accompanied by pouring mud protesters using such epithets as separatists , uneducated rednecks , hangers Moscow , and others. Well and accordingly provocation and fights everywhere. Judging by the video dubbing , the rally gathered steam thousands of alcoholics for the money, of which more than half is specially brought people from Russia . For those who do not know , the Russians are not allowed on the territory of Ukraine . Wrapped at the border.
But the journalist did not realize one thing: we are activists , we understand that information warfare is conducted . And we are prepared. The crowd worked our people who were attached to the crew and made sure that there was no distortion of information. But our reporter was not just those who work in the crowd. He shot on a smartphone and immediately broadcast material strimingovyh channel with its voice acting. In real time. Locate it was hard, but we deal with it ! Thanks to information from activists who monitored the channels broadcasted our rally . These activists radio supervised search misinformers and it was eventually found. He did take off all your cell phone, went and commented on all in their own way . He was very surprised when he was approached by a couple of strong guys simple and asked about his health than he has been here all if he had not been waiting for good and whether its customers the dill . The answer was that he was a Russian journalist and even demonstrated the identity that is confirmed .
1 file
Donetsk businessman hiding behind parliamentary powers , putting pressure on the newspaper
But crepes guys lusted contemplate passport Russians . Had to submit . It turned out that Ukrainian passport and … misinformers our countryman … Donetsk . Shatohin name Pavel , born in 1984 .
3 file
file 2
Provide all possible assistance to our project!
Deny it no longer make sense. Provocateur – misinformers head bowed asked only one thing: that they did not take the phone . He received the answer that he was confused , this is not the maidan and anyone not interested in his phone . Overall physical coercion decided not to take , so he looked very sorry , and somehow disgusting . He filmed for Channel spilno.tv, one of the channels , which cynically savored in Heroes of the Golden Eagle flying bottles, as the latter-day Ukrainian fascists worked chaos and lawlessness . People who work with these channels even touch the hands is not desirable , not wash off .
Strong guys otfotografirovali his passport and identity and released. Liar retired to the laughter of the crowd, clutching a telephone, as a believer icon. Finally he was told to be tried at home because many as possible will want to come to visit him a courtesy visit . Politeness is a sign of Russian man , as we know. Provocateur glanced at the camera that took it off and place of registration documents and understood … silence …
And silence is assent. Therefore , dear countrymen , who wants to pay a visit of courtesy this hero – he agrees ! Tell him heartfelt greetings from cattle herds and Russian .
Kharkiv militia calls on citizens to go to the general gathering Mirror jet
For letters of courtesy ( and Russian people are polite , as we remember ) give the address and details for connection with the hero :
Shatohin Pavel
Str. Savchenko Building 16 , Apt. 11
Donetsk.
Phone: +38 050 327 23 96
Mail : pr@plum.dn.ua
Will be in those places , do not hesitate to go . Though the window tap . You do not have hard, but Paul SHATOKHINA will be pleased . Uvazhte so he deserved .
In general, if it is serious, the soul disgusting.
Provide all possible assistance to our project!
I am glad that people like that one.
Behind the curtain want to give advice to the leadership of the anti-fascist movement of the Southeast .
Friends , highlight a couple of dozen people who would during mass events observed the work crews and to identify such operators and hidden provocations and suppress the spread of misinformation. We can not afford to demonize !
Source – the online edition of ” verb ” : http://glagol.in.ua/2014/03/10/zhdite-v-gosti-ili-metodyi-borbyi-s-maydanovskoy-dezinformatsiey-po-donetski/#ixzz2vbl0QGLY
Posted by: brian | Mar 11 2014 0:06 utc | 46
Sorry, b,
But my impression is that this time you got it really all fucked up wrong. Maybe canadian ambassadors (or should I say “Ex-canadian” beause nowdays that once proud country is but a lousy zusa/izrael colony?) aren’t the best source to build ones opinion.
His view is completely biased and zio-based and full of bullshit.
Of course, Crimea is *way more* than a navy base and some chunk of land needing water and support.
I’m sometimes wondering whether all western countries, in particular zusa colonies, have lost any and all culture and human decency.
ukraine is, from what I know, *not* with any majority Russian-speaking; Crimea and some regions are, but so what. There are, for example, *many* mixed families, so that language line is anyway not to be drawn as easily – and bluntly – as some would like.
Maybe, even probably, zusa/zeu/zatos interest is mainly in cost/profit, zato bases, a quick meal (e.g. shale gas) – but that does *NOT* mean that Russia thinks and sees things in a similar way. Neither does it mean that the weztern perspective is the relevant one.
One point many just don’t seem capable of getting is that Russia has no lack of territory whatsoever. Nor a lack of resources. Nor a lack of power. And on top of it Russia has a rather healthy population of human beings with healthy core values and healthy cores; family, religion, education.
OF COURSE that strongly influences thoughts and behaviour. *Of course* such a country with such people approaches issues and behaves *very differently* from rotten countries with rotten media, rotten economy, rotten leaders, rotten system, and citizens who are told democracy fairy tales but actually are ignored system slaves being fed their daily dose of propaganda since kindergarden.
obama was elected in the ridiculous zamerican “democracy” systen, merkel heads a government (of a non-souvereign occupation zone, one should remind) that was built by bluntly ignoring what people had voted for and, no matter anyway, because both, obama and merkel lie every day, ignore their people every day, and make their secret dealings behind closed doors every day.
This is, kindly get it finally, no base whatsoever for understanding or making educated guesses about Russias or Putins policy, desires, or no-goes.
Russia understands the eastern and southern regions as “Russian” or “ethnic Russian” because many, maybe not a majority but a large group anyway, ethnic Russians live there, because a very large number of family relations (with Russians) live there, because those region deal and work with Russians and Russian businesses, because those regions *rightfully* were part of Sovjet Russia (unlike western parts of ukraine), and because Russa has had – rightfully – fucking damn enough of the weztern crime mob doing whatever they please.
Not any more! Now it’s Russia to do whatever they fucking please. And don’t you worry, after all, Russia is a civilized country with an intelligent president acting rationally.
So, Russia will neither annect ukraine nor will it let go Crimea or other eastern/southern regions into the hands of the weztern crime mob. There will either be a complete ukraine with strong assurances, possibly in the constitution, for the eastern/southern regions and Crimea – or – there will be 2 ukraines, a western one that will be sucked dry by weztern vampires and raped and then thrown away, and an eastern one that will within some years reach Russian level and work out nicely as a close partner of Russia but a souverein state and, quite possibly, as a member of eurasian (economy) union and possibly SCO or in some other way protected by Russia.
Any yes, there will quite probably be a war. I doubt, though, that it will be in or about ukraine. One reason being that zeu has a large snout but no muscles – nor the desire to be a theater for zusa operations.
And again, this might not be visible right now but there will be *major* consequences for zeu, in particular Germany. Which btw. might even end with Germans shouting “Thank you, president Putin, for liberating us from the mob scum!”
Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 11 2014 0:55 utc | 48
HnH (90)
Russian military tech is, judging from publicly available sources, also superior in air defense systems, torpedoes and has much more modern nuclear weapons.
You forgot all kinds of jet airplanes, judging based on what’s actually available and usable today. Which is funny because zusas mil. strategy is very much based on air superiority.
Also, one can say with very high confidence that Russia generally has *way* better missiles, no matter the category.
The US has, on the other hand, a technological edge in shipbuilding, submarines, communications, situational awareness and systems integration.
shipbuilding maybe; that’s an area that is hard to judge, in part because the doctrines are very different. zusas navy is centered around the idea of global dominance while Russias is largely centered around zusa ships.
As for submarines, no. In that regard the two are about on par in the best case (for zusa).
For the last part that is, communications, situational awareness and systems integration, you are quite right (although Russia is working hard in that area). I say “quite” (and not “completely”) because Russia *does* have some quite advanced capabilities in those fields, too.
Actually I see this two-sided. On the one hand, yes, Russia is less advanced in those fields due,also to, to be perfectly honest, Russia certainly suffering from having basically no modern processor technology. Actually I consider this one of Russias major weak spots, although for the moment the close partnership with China eases that somewhat.
On the other hand I’m not sure that the level zusa has reached in those fields are only advantagous. Killing some (relatively few) satellites basically would halt zusa machinery. I hope that Russia on one hand shortens the distance to zusa but also finds a better compromise that zusa did.
What that means is that the US would highly likely win against Russia in a non-nuclear conflict, if that conflict occurs somewhere outside the Russian borders.
There I strongly object. For one, such a statement needs way more differentiation. If “outside” Russia means, to use a realistic example, Venezuela you are almost certainly right. If it means Africa the chances are shifted but I tend to agree with you. If it means the near and mid abroad (up to 3.000 km from Russias border and somewhat depending on the location) you are almost certainly wrong.
You also must not ignore the fact, that a war with Russia would incur a very high risk of having China as an opponent too. A risk that would certainly very strongly contribute to zusa being broken.
However, that point is moot because everybody interested in military and geopolitical affairs and their dog knows that, so the Russians would go nuclear pretty quickly. That would very likely mean the end of all of us.
Here I strongly disagree. Because Russia is a very civilized country and values human life highly. And this is not theory; there have been situation where (albeit Sovjet-)Russia gave in and even accepted some shame (and zusa ridicule) so as to avoid a nuclear war.
And I object again concerning “end of all of us”. Russias nuclear cap. is considerably higher than zusas. It’s delivery vehicles are way more advanced and so is it’s chance of delivery and reaching target. At the same time Russia has excellent air defense capabilities that would be used against aged and comparatively primitive zusa delivery vehicles. In summary a nuclear war would *completely and utterly* annihilate zusa while leaving at least major parts of (double the size) Russia habitable.
That is moot you are right in that, but for other reasons, the major ones being that zusa won’t dare to cross the nuclear border and that Russia would probably even rather take some nun-nuclear hits unpunished than going nuclear and annihilating zusa.
Nevertheless, Mr. Pragma makes a very pertinent point. There is very little the US would or could do militarily against Russia, except if it feels its own security vitally threatened. The same goes for Russia, by the way. That’s why they would never attack Poland, a member of NATO.
And again I object. For one zusa has no reason whatsoever to feel threatened by Russia. Russia hasn’t done so much as one single thing that might give reason to feel threated for zusa.
Secondly, Russia wouldn’t attack poland because poland is military like in every other regard completely insignificant. Also it wouldn’t attack poland because Russia generally does not attack any country unless its vital national interests are threatened and serious warnings are ignored.
The reason you mentioned, however, would be among the few reasons to attack poland, if only to see – or, more precisely to demonstrate – what then happens; nothing but some squeaking. Whatever Russian leaders may say for reasons of diplomatic calcule or politeness – they don’t care batshit about zato.
To provide another hint: zusa just declared that the military exercises with Bulgaria and Romania (and one(!) zusa destroyer) are postponed *due to bad weather(!!!!)*
I said it before and I’ll repeat it: zusas current game is “Dear president Putin, we just *must* at least say some threatening angry things and look a little dangerous but please, pretty please, do not take this in any way whatsoever as a sign of even the slightest intention to threaten Russia, Sir, thank you Sir”.
Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 11 2014 14:21 utc | 96
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