Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 01, 2014

The Crimean Anti-Coup Move

The U.S. and EU sponsored coup against the elected government and president of the Ukraine had several strategic implications and aims. One of them is the Black Sea base of the Russian Navy which is used to supply and defend Syria. A takeover of the government in Kiev was necessary but not sufficient to neutralize the base as a strategic Russian asset. To do that a takeover of the local government of the Crimea and all its powers would also have to take place. The Crimea is historically Russian and most of it inhabitants are Russians. There is also a rather small minority of Tatars of Muslim heritage.

There seem to have been plans in place to use that minority to help with a takeover of the Crimean government by the "western" sponsored coup-government in Kiev.

In mid December 2013(!) the Turkish website Aydinlik Daily reported:

According to news appearing in the French, Ukrainian and Russian press, Turkish Intelligence has a finger in the ongoing pro-EU protests in Ukraine. News stories from these three nations have claimed that the governmental intelligence organization of Turkey, the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) organized the transfer of separatist, jihadist Tatars trained in Turkey to the Ukraine. According to French news site Egalite et Réconciliation, dozens of Crimean Tatar Jihadists were extracted from Syria by the MİT and transferred to Ukraine via Turkey on an İstanbul-Sevastopol flight of Turkish Airlines on the 22 November. According to information based on sources from the Security Service of Ukraine, (SBU), Crimean Tatars who attended the protests in Ukraine's capital Kiev on November 21 were charged with establishing the security of the square. The Crimean security staff who obtained the support of separatist "Azatlık" movement operating in Russian city of Kazan received political support from Nail Nabiullin, the current president of Tatar Youth League in Azatlık.

An February 26, shortly after the Kiev coup-government was installed, Tataric groups rioted in the Crimean capital:

In Crimea, fistfights broke out between rival demonstrators in the regional capital of Simferopol when some 20,000 Muslim Tatars rallying in support of Ukraine's interim leaders clashed with a smaller pro-Russian rally.

The protesters shouted and attacked each other with stones, bottles and punches, as police and leaders of both rallies struggled to keep the two groups apart.

One health official said at least 20 people were injured, while the local health ministry said one person died from an apparent heart attack. Tatar leaders said there was a second fatality when a woman was trampled to death by the crowd. Authorities did not confirm that.

Voice of Russia reports about an alleged Anonymous hack of emails between the coup plotters in Kiev and a Tatar leader:

[H]ackers posted a quote from one of the emails:

"Everything is going according to the plan. We are ready to proceed with the second part of the play. As agreed earlier last week, my guys together with people from the "Karpatskaya Sech" and UNA-UNSO will arrive wherever is needed and with the necessary weapons. You only need to let us know the addresses of the warehouses in Simferopol, Sevastopol, Kerch, Feodosia and Yalta, and the time of the meeting...Don't worry about the money, everything will be fine, just a little bit later. In the end, you know that if we succeed, you will get a lot more."

According to the text, the neo-Nazi organization "Trizub imeni Stepan Bandera" along with "Karpatskaya Sech " and UNA-UNSO are ready to fulfill all the dirty work: to kill, burn and banish all the opponents of Maidan from Crimea. Crimean Tatars should "only" provide them with "instruments", ie weapons and store them in the most important cities of the Crimea.

A lot of people might consider that the Ukrainian nationalists and Crimean Tatars pursue different goals, and their union at first glance looks quite unnatural. However, they have one aim in common, which is to eliminate the Russian-speaking population from the Crimean region and for that their «union» is neccessary in pursuing the common strategic objective.

It is also important to note that Aslan Omer Kyrymly is the founder of several companies and president of the board of the Crimean International Business Association (CIBA). He controls serious financial flows associated with various business projects, both in Ukraine and abroad. It is believed that Aslan Omer Kyrymly is a true leader of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars.

Anonymous (or Russian intelligence) earlier published emails between coup-plotter Klitschko and the Lithuanian government.

On February 27 Russian forces stationed in the Crimea and supported by allegedly local paramilitary took over security at two airports and of some government buildings in Crimean cities. A Turkish flight to Simferopol airport was called back and further Turkish fights to Crimea were canceled. The Turkish foreign minister Davutoglu announced that he would today visit the coup-government in Kiev:

"Crimea is important in Ukraine due to its strategic location, multi-ethnic and multi-faith formation. It is difficult to maintain peace in Eurasia unless it is secured in Ukraine. Likewise, maintaining peace in the Black Sea is difficult unless it is secured in Crimea," [Davutoglu] added.
The status of Crimea amid the Ukraine crisis cannot be determined without Turkey playing a role, a deputy from Turkey’s ruling AK Party said Friday.

"Turkish Foreign Minister [Ahmet] Davutoglu's visit to Ukraine is an indication of Turkey's intention to be proactive in developments in Crimea," Samil Tayyar told the Anadolu Agency.
Two Turkish Airlines flights from Istanbul to the Crimean capital of Simferopol on Friday night have been canceled amid escalating tension on the peninsula.
Early Friday, another Turkish airline, Atlasjet, cancelled a flight to Simferopol after media reports that Simferopol International Airport had been seized by armed groups.

An alleged attempt by coup forces to seize the interior ministry of the Crimea tonight was repelled. In Kiev anti-Russian Tatars call for more trouble:

Meanwhile, Tatar lawmaker Mustafa Dzhemilev of Batkivshchyna has asked acting President Oleksandr Turchynov to deploy the entire Ukrainian army to Crimea.

“I spoke with Turchynov that all of our military might should be deployed to Crimea. There are no threats in other oblasts yet. Call a state of emergency and take control,” said Dzhemilev cited by RBK-Ukraine.

The picture emerging from the above seems to show that:

  • Turkish intelligence helped with training Tatars in support of a local Crimea anti-Russian coup
  • Russian intelligence has thoroughly penetrated the coup-plotters communications (see Nuland tape) and knew what was coming
  • Russian aligned forces secured the Crimea and prevented infiltration of more Tataric units from Turkey
  • On the Crimea, as well as in other Russian aligned areas in east Ukraine (Donetsk, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk), counter coups are establishing separate regions which will ask for Russian support and eventual incorporation into the Russian Federation
  • If all this goes well for the Russians the "western" coup in Kiev will have resulted in the "west" acquiring a bankrupt, dirt poor west Ukraine while Russia will acquire the industry and resource rich east Ukraine and will keep the Crimea as its strategic asset
  • In the context of the war of Syria the coup in the Ukraine was a countermeasure to Russian support for Syria. Unless the Crimea falls to coup forces that countermeasure will have failed.

There is little the U.S. can say against Russian troops in Crimea. According to the status of force agreement Russia can post up to 30,000 soldiers there. The normal size of its forces there is just half of that. If Russia wants to reinforce those it can do so without breaking any national or international agreement.

Today the government of Crimea brought forward a referendum on the region's status to March 30 and called for Russian help. What is the "west" going to say against that? If self-determination applies to Kosovo it surely also applies to the Crimea as well as to other east Ukrainian areas.

Posted by b on March 1, 2014 at 12:35 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »

"92) I know about the video, but how do you know who the sniper is?

Posted by: somebody | Mar 1, 2014 4:48:03 PM | 93"

No not personally.

were you really expecting me to know his name?

But anyway the Ukrainian Member of Parliament stated that NATO snipers appear to have shot at both sides during the recent events in Ukraine.

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 21:57 utc | 101

98) Yes, this here is the BBC reporting on a protester firing from the media hotel
You cannot know who these people are, though, which side, which secret service.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 1 2014 22:03 utc | 102

looks like I misread :)
"92) I know about the video, but how do you know who the sniper is?

Posted by: somebody | Mar 1, 2014 4:48:03 PM | 93"

The same way you apparently "know" that "Russia will know where they came from" - remember you yourself stated "Russia will know where they came from" - the Russians probably told that Ukrainian Parliamentarian

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 22:04 utc | 103

I guess Crimea name itself is of Russian origin!?

Honestly I've no clue where the name Crimea is from. I've always been more interested in the Middle East than Eastern Europe/Caucus. My knowledge of Ukraine extends about as far as Wikipedia, the Vinyard of Saker blog (who I consider the resident Russia expert of foreign policy blogs) and here.

But from what I know on the Middle East and from following Syria, anyone with two eyes can see that the same game is being played. The same model is being followed. Hell even mostly the same International Players taking the same sides.

Since you, Neretva seem to be from the region and passionate about what's going on. What's your thoughts/theories on Ukraine?

Posted by: Colm O' Toole | Mar 1 2014 22:04 utc | 104

You cannot know who these people are, though, which side, which secret service.

I never said I knew -

You said "Russia will know where they came from" -

How do you "know" that "Russia will know where they came from"?

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 22:06 utc | 105

So if you are sure that "Russia will know where they came from", then probably the Russians told that Ukrainian Member of Parliament so that he could then go on TV and tell the rest of us that NATO snipers appear to have shot at both sides during the recent events in Ukraine.

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 22:09 utc | 106

Possibly interesting paragraph in a 2007 NYT profile of current scion of the infamous Rothschild Clan, Nathaniel Rothschild:

Rothschild plays behind the scenes in Ukraine

........In five short years, the man in line to be the fifth Baron Rothschild is close to becoming a billionaire through a web of private equity investments in Ukraine, Eastern Europe and most significant, his partnership stake in Atticus Capital, the fast-growing $14 billion hedge fund..........

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 22:18 utc | 107

100) Yep, you hear so much rumour.

Anyway, Putin overstepped it now:

The Russian President underlined that there are real threats to the life and health of Russian citizens and compatriots on Ukrainian territory. Vladimir Putin stressed that if violence spread further in the eastern regions of Ukraine and in Crimea, Russia reserves the right to protect its interests and those of Russian speakers living there.

This here is the list of countries with Russian speakers

He also seems to have forgot that his empire houses speakers of other languages he does not recognize.

neretva'43 #87 I am with you now. This is the road to nationalist desaster.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 1 2014 22:28 utc | 108

Israel's Role in Ukraine

On 16 December 2013 Jerusalem Post reported that

"some young Jews working for international organizations such as JDC, Hillel and Limmud
have taken to the barricades [in Ukraine, and they were] 'really
active' in offering support as well as 'organizing the barricades'."

One may well be tempted to view these young Jews as useful idiots, but it is far more plausible that they were in fact provocateurs with a political agenda of their own. Ukraine is not just a safe haven for oligarchs on the run from Putin; it is also a country in which Israel exerts a high degree of political influence.

What should be troubling to Russia is the extent of the cooperation between Ukraine and Israel in the fields of military and intelligence. During the European Championship in football in 2012, which was held in Poland and Ukraine,
Mossad was partly in charge of security. And the cooperation went much farther than the overseeing of sports events:

(i) Exchange of security information between the two countries; such an exchange is most likely skewed in Israel's favour.

(ii) Cooperation in the field of counter-terrorism.

Israel is granted wellnigh unlimited access to Ukrainian databases; this facilitates the halting of the influx of undesired elements into Israel as well as the apprehension of potential or imagined terrorists.

Indeed,the cooperation between Israel and Ukraine in the field of intelligence is so extensive that Israel saw it fit to appoint Reuven Dinel, a former Mossad agent, as ambassador to Ukraine. It is worth noting that Dinel was caught spying in Russia during the 90s and was subsequently declared persona non grata. So tarnished was Dinel's reputation that Turkmenistan refused to grant diplomatic status to this enemy of Russia. Ukraine had no such qualms.

Ukraine is today a veritable den of russophobic Israelis. On the one hand, Israel's interests coincide with those of the West in the sense that they both wish to limit the Russian sphere of influence, whereas on the other Israel is advocating the agenda of oligarchs with dual or multiple citizenships jealously clinging on to assets stolen from the people of Russia.

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 22:31 utc | 109

Anyway, Putin overstepped it now:
"The Russian President underlined that there are real threats to the life and health of Russian citizens and compatriots on Ukrainian territory. Vladimir Putin stressed that if violence spread further in the eastern regions of Ukraine and in Crimea, Russia reserves the right to protect its interests and those of Russian speakers living there. . . ."

Posted by: somebody | Mar 1, 2014 5:28:42 PM | 105

It's not clear what you are referring to here with "overstepped"

"Overstepped" what exactly?

Posted by: brb | Mar 1 2014 22:34 utc | 110


Overstepped? Turn of the german tv man.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 1 2014 22:37 utc | 111

how can ukraine call for nato when they arent part of it?!

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 1 2014 22:44 utc | 112

I don't know, b. Isn't this all a bit contrived? Interesting, for sure, but a Turkish instigated Tartar uprising? For what purpose? To undermine Russia's support for Assad?

Perhaps having seen a pro-Russian crowd in Crimea being overwhelmed by a group of Tartar's, who represent a far smaller proportion of Crimean's than ethnic Russians, the Kremlin got spooked.

The crowds of thousands of pro-Russian demonstrators popping up all over Russian populated areas have been conspicuous by their absence. If a group of a few thousand determined rioters in Kiev could bring down unopposed a President elected by 12 million, why couldn't a Tartar minority replicate this feat in Crimea? What of the will of the silent majority? Where are those prepared to fight back?

Perhaps the Kremlin has decided to lead this fight; hoping the stir the masses, but fearing they do not care and that Ukraine has been lost.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Mar 1 2014 22:57 utc | 113

Those here pushing the bbc/cnn propaganda meme that Putin/Russia "overstepped" have no clue as to what's going on. A legitimate government have been toppled by the "democratic" EU/US. Upon stealing power, these coup leaders immediately declares all Russian speaking Ukrainians as illegal etc etc.

My question is, did the EU think they "overstpped" (whatever that means), when they pushed through with this stupid regime change through color revolution scheme? By history, Ukraine's always been a Russian enclave.

This anti-Slavic hatred, disguised as anti-Putinism is just silly. It's the same as anti-Shiite racism always disguise as anti-Assad. Basically, anybody can do/say anything they want as long as they're not Russians or in Syria's case, Alawite or Shiite.

It's a simple deal, Russia's protecting Russians living in a place called Ukraine from fascist, neo-Nazi thugs sponsored by "democratic" EU who have vowed to fight all Russians and Jews (Not Zionists). You can't make this up!

Posted by: Zico | Mar 1 2014 23:10 utc | 114

"Interesting, for sure, but a Turkish instigated Tartar uprising? For what purpose?" For the same purpose they supported the extremists in Chechnya. "Brotherhood" and NATO enticement.

We probably shouldn't dismiss the fact that Erdogan is probably looking for anything to take people's minds off of his corrupt government.

And anyway, do you think that these well funded intelligence organizations and militaries need much "purpose" for any of their antics? It's kinda like asking why dogs hump.

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 1 2014 23:31 utc | 115

And anyway, do you think that these well funded intelligence organizations and militaries need much "purpose" for any of their antics? It's kinda like asking why dogs hump.

:). Indeed! Should never credit these cretins with too much thinking. We all tend to over-analyse the lizard-brain.

Posted by: DM | Mar 2 2014 0:15 utc | 116

Bear with me …

Confirmed: Omidyar's NGOs Clearly Partner in Regime Change

Unwittingly, the saga of the faked black-ops sniper video published by RFERL on 20 February 2014, is connected with the publication by Mark Ames and response of Marcy Wheeler to the NGOs and media outlets under responsiblility of billionaire Omidyar. My previous diary …

Who Were Snipers In Kiev Massacre - A CIA-Svoboda False Flag Op?

Posted by: Oui | Mar 2 2014 0:27 utc | 117

The Empire and its' minions are lusting for global hegemony, the record is clear. Destabilize and control. From Central America, to South America, the Middle East and beyond. These people want it all. Unfettered access for their corporate interests around the world, installing the new Global Plantation.

Putin/Russia have the right, even the duty, to protect their national interests on their borders. Is some nation really standing up to the Empire? I, for one, certainly hope so.

If someone was enabling violent change in Mexico or Canada, does anyone believe the US would not take military action?

Posted by: ben | Mar 2 2014 1:11 utc | 118

@114 It's really irritating to see Greenwald calling his critics "dumb" and Wheeler coming up with goofball lines like "Cue the Hollywood villain music again. Bum bum bum! Women in leadership?" to go after hers.

I mean, at some point these folks are going to have to face their critics like adults, and not like third graders. Can they not just answer accusations reasonably?

Also, Wheeler absolutely contradicts herself here. She begins by fingering Yanukovych as the bad actor whose violent crackdown lead to the fascists taking power:

Back before February 4, weeks before the most violent crackdown that killed protestors that led to Viktor Yanukovych’s ouster

And ends with admitting that really it was the fact that the fascists were there that caused the violence that lead to his ouster.

That is, on Monday, the “smiley-face neoliberal politicians” couldn’t rally support like they used to be able to, which made the neo-fascists the vanguard in the movement, which in turn contributed to the violence that led to Yanukovych’s ouster

You can't have it both ways. Either the fascists provoked the violence, or Yanukovych unleashed it unprovoked. And if the fascists provoked it, it is hardly a "crackdown" - especially when it leads to your being kicked out of the country.

But ah, these are the little qualifications, the little intellectual zigs and zags, the little submissions to the elite line that come from trying to be one of the "respectable" journalists with a "travel budget" and, by definition a billionaire for a boss.

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 2 2014 1:13 utc | 119

Damn! Let's try that again...

@114 It's really irritating to see Greenwald calling his critics "dumb" and Wheeler coming up with goofball lines like "Cue the Hollywood villain music again. Bum bum bum! Women in leadership?" to go after hers.

I mean, at some point these folks are going to have to face their critics like adults, and not like third graders. Can they not just answer reasonable accusations reasonably?

Also, Wheeler absolutely contradicts herself here. She begins by fingering Yanukovych as the bad actor whose violent crackdown lead to the fascists taking power:

Back before February 4, weeks before the most violent crackdown that killed protestors that led to Viktor Yanukovych’s ouster

And ends with admitting that really it was the fact that the fascists were there that caused the violence that lead to his ouster.

That is, on Monday, the “smiley-face neoliberal politicians” couldn’t rally support like they used to be able to, which made the neo-fascists the vanguard in the movement, which in turn contributed to the violence that led to Yanukovych’s ouster

You can't have it both ways. Either the fascists provoked the violence, or Yanukovych unleashed it unprovoked. And if the fascists provoked it, it is hardly a "crackdown" - especially when it leads to your being kicked bodily out of the country.

But ah, these are the little qualifications, the little intellectual zigs and zags, the little submissions to the elite line that come from trying to be one of the "respectable" journalists with a "travel budget" and, by definition, a billionaire for a boss.

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 2 2014 1:15 utc | 120

Oh shit, I thought we were on the other thread. Okay, I'm done...

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 2 2014 1:30 utc | 121

@guest77 Yes, I was very disappointed in her too. I thought she was better than that but maybe success has gone to her head. Greenwald's insufferable, but he was Snowden's choice so we're stuck -- however, you have to admit it was a brilliant idea to have Omidyar hire them. And pretty stupid of them not to have checked him out. They may not lose, but We The People sure will.

Posted by: Nora | Mar 2 2014 1:38 utc | 122

Canada recalls its ambassador.

We join our allies in condemning in the strongest terms President Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine. (not Russia, Putin!!!)

We call on President Putin to immediately withdraw his forces to their bases and refrain from further provocative and dangerous actions. (Putin again!!!)

Canada has suspended its engagement in preparations for the G-8 Summit, currently planned for Sochi, and the Canadian Ambassador in Moscow is being recalled for consultations. (going further than the Yanks!)

We will continue to cooperate closely with our G-7 partners and other allies. (G-7, not G-8; Russia will be ousted from that group, I'm sure)

Posted by: gregg | Mar 2 2014 2:21 utc | 123

canada - israel controlled country.. what boneheads we have for leaders.. if you are looking for stupidity - look no further then in the control of the canuck gov't under harper.. a true idiot..

Posted by: james | Mar 2 2014 2:40 utc | 124

BERKUT - Ukraine
Message from the people of Sevastopol to Maidan - Обращение Севастопольца к Майдану

Translation (English CC available)

They tell us lies about you and they tell you lies about us. We the people of Sevastopol would like to explain. We are only interested in three things.

We want to speak our native language. You have been trying to make Ukranians out of us for the past twenty years, but I will never be a Ukranian, I will always be Russian, but I am a Ukranian citizen.

Secondly, we have our own history and we are proud of it. The government must stop insulting it and attempting to re-write it. What are we to do? Take down all these monuments? Destroy our city? No, we will never allow this! We do not go to Lvov and tell you who to worship, we respect your way of life.

And lastly, we have suffered from discrimination, we have never been able to elect our own government. Our mayor has always been forced upon us. We want and demand that our mayor be one of us. We are here to support our people and our city. We call for unity, so that the politicians can't turn us against each other. We are just ordinary people like those who stood on the Maidan in Kiev, we are not here to support any government.

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 2:46 utc | 125

Well ... some first statements.

There are some few potentially highly relevant facts as far as the military side is concerned.

- Zusa sent two ships to the western coast, namely 1 frigate, 30 years old, low threat, 76mm cannon and some low end missiles, and 1 command ship mainly for amphibian ops, 40 yrs old, next to no weapons (1 20 mm Phalanx system which is a worthless show-off "high-tech bla bla system, most well known for attacking friendly targets) but some limited "espionage" equipment and a not too lousy significance by being the 6th. fleet commanders ship.

Militarily speaking, one ship is basically worthless and the other one has about the value of a coast guard ship. In short, nothing that even a quite small Russian vessel couldn't easily and comfortably handle with any risk exceeding that of my neighbour cooking one of his stranger dishes.

A useful question comes to mind, though: Officially these ships came in order to support Russia in case of a terror situation. One has to ask what these ships were meant to do in such a case? For the command ship one might think about rescuing zamerican citizens (the ship has quite a few landing boats on board) but for the frigate one can't help but to see that its purpose must have been something else.
While both ships are not what any commander might ask for to be involved in an operation that has e very high risk of provoking Russia, they are definitely better suited for some - probably intentional - low level first hours support in a scenario like that in ukraine.
All in all I'm strongly led to think that zusa had planned the ukraine project long before the Olympics which were never anything but an excuse to get the ship into the region.

- Bosporus

No matter what and how, the zamericans will need more ships incl. some carriers for any more than making a little trouble intervention in the ukraine. And those ships have to pass through Bosporus; this and particularly the fact that any and all carriers are by international treaty unconditionally verboten to pass Bosporus will put turkey under the duress of taking a position either way. In case they let the zusa fleet pass, they will violate international law and actively take part in a war, which will put them directly against Russia.

Secondly, the ukrainian flagship which switched sides and goes with Russia now, also has to - rightfully - through Bosporus. It will be interesting to see turkeys position and, in case of trouble, Russias answer.

- ukraine forces

As I have said earlier, ukraine forces will not be a tool for the "new government".

Basically the forces can be divided into 3 factions.
- the - supposedly large - part that will rather be pro Russia
- the - supposedly large - part that will strongly like to stay neutral and not involved at all
- the - supposedly smal and volatile - part that will side with the "new government".

With a strong trend from the latter to the former after Russia taking a clear position.

This creates an ugly situation for both the kiev regime and zusa/zato/zeu. Because basically they have no military forces, at least none they could reasonably rely on. Add to this the fact that ukraines forces have that reputation, to put it diplomatically, neither are they seeking fights nor do they excel in fights ...

What's not yet finally clear is whether zusa is brain dead enough to really engage Russia or whether it's still basically about keeping the fire going and brawling around in a calculated and limited way.
What *is* clear, however, is that zusa planned this for a long time and that one of the major pillars of their strategy is to open multiple fronts and potential fronts with Russia, namely ukraine, turkey, syria. Partly to enhance price and risk for Russia and partly to wear Russia out.

I'm quite certain they are badly mistaken.
First, the same strategy can easily be used by Russia - and on a far grander and more costly scale.

For one, expect China to brawl or to rightout attack japan or taiwan. This would at once immensively and excessively increase cost and risk but also spread of zusa resources. I predict that zusa is not up to such a challenge. They'd brake and go broke.

Furthermore, Syria is easy; all Russia needs to do is to fly in some Iskanders and S-300 and Syria is taken care of for quite a while. Optionally Russia might bring in some limited amount of powerful troups "to protect their base".
ukraine is, if push comes to shovel, a fairly easy target, no matter what zusa brings to bear.

And, possibly the most interesting part, turkey is not an easy but an immensely valuable target for Russia. And while it's a difficult target to completely conquer, it's quite easy a target to subdue in a first strike. After all, in and around Istanbul there is the core of turkey; more than 10 mio people, and all major arteries (e.g. traffic) pass through that region-
Sure enough it would fit Russias character to lightheartedly kill millions of people, but it needn't; it's sufficient to basically take them hostage.
So, practically speaking, very few attacks on some few strategically vital targets like Bosporus bridges, would severly cripple turkey and create immense financial damage. At the same time it would quite certainly create very major riots against the government that created this unfortunate situation without any need.
In the next and last step all Russia needed to do was to have a (not too) small fleet blocking/controlling Bosporus and comfortably sink any zusa ships trying to come through.

It should also not be forgotten that the turkish government decimated the officer corps and seriously pissed of the military - the very resource they'd need in that situation. Calling them in would necessarily cost major compromises (read: "eternally" and irrevocably increased power of the military up to the point of giving them veto power in pretty everything, such making the government a farce) and by no means guarantee any success whatsoever.
Funnily about the only weapons that turkey has which are not quite useless against Russia would be some few Chinese weapons; a point that will doubtlessly make the turkish military reconsider the value of zusa weapons and being strongly bound, even subdued, to the zusa military ...

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 2:59 utc | 126

Earlier today a group of the fascists most of whom were not from Kharkov managed to get inside the building of the regional government. Soon after they were stormed, captured, and brought out on the main square of the city. Hopefully, they got some further intel info from them. Kharkov is the most important city in eastern Ukraine.
Fascists tried to seize and occupy the building of the regional government in Kharkov. The whole city has risen against them. Here is a video from the conclusion of the standoff. Fascists working for NATO ... a surprise?

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 3:00 utc | 127

Xinjiang separatists carried out deadliest attack in china

Posted by: maimar | Mar 2 2014 3:08 utc | 128

interesting bit here...

Posted by: skuppers | Mar 2 2014 3:19 utc | 129

About 5 minutes ago, Rebel Radio (BBC) concluded a report on a recent UNSC meeting to discuss the Ukraine situation with the words "Russia seems to be thumbing its nose at the White House."

The reporter was somewhat bemused by the fact that the first two hours of the meeting were spent arguing about protocols and "Ukraine" wasn't mentioned at all during that time.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Mar 2 2014 3:20 utc | 130

Vladimir Suchan via BERKUT - Ukraine
A German investigative blogger shows pictures and information that documents previous training of the Ukrainian neo-fascists, who spearheaded the Euromaindan protests in Kiev at a NATO base in Estonia. His report begins at 1:24 (and is in German, but otherwise still quite understandable for the photos speak much for themselves). The beginning of the video is an RT material from the Maidan which shows similar fascist troops training their fight against the police.

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 3:24 utc | 131

Direct war between china and japan is unlikely, but a proxy war with japan arming Xinjiang separatists seem possible.

Posted by: maimar | Mar 2 2014 3:26 utc | 132

Whatever else Crimea may be it is certainly not part of Ukraine, either ethnically, historically or geographically. Given its importance as the Russian Black sea base there can be no doubt that Russia must and will insulate it from the fascist led risings in the Ukraine.
As to the eastern Ukraine it is hard to believe that the Galician fascists, avowed lineal descendants of the very worst elements of the Nazi collaborators, would dare attempt to return without the accompaniment of the Wehrmacht who protected them the last time they came there to wreak havoc.
The link rememberingiap left yesterday is worth reading: the thirty page section, basically chapters 9&10, on fascism, are particularly relevant.
Here's the link again

Posted by: bevin | Mar 2 2014 3:34 utc | 133

@18 forces could come thru west of ukraine..but NORTH is Belarus and Russia...east is russia...south is the sea

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 3:46 utc | 134

'Your article is piece of shit'

Posted by: neretva '43 | Mar 1, 2014 1:20:13 PM | 58

an unhappy troll

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 3:57 utc | 135

It is extremely difficult to summarize the volatile situation in Ukraine. It is the classic problem that we only have about half of the information we need and half of the information that we do have is wrong. With that caveat it does look like the Russian provinces in the Ukraine are in the process of separating themselves from the central government. If Putin is given enough time it seems more and more Russian speaking Ukrainians will give up on the fantasy that they can be equal citizens in that country. Once a critical mass of people is reached all of the Russian majority provinces can peacefully secede from the Ukraine (and who knows, maybe some of the Russian minority provinces will agree to leave if the current crop of incompetents in Kiev continue to mismanage the country).

Outside intervention might force Putin to send in troops before that point. That would be unfortunate but it would not change the final result. But the process could be very violent. There is no chance that European nations or the US will be willing to challenge Russia militarily in the Ukraine. However, overt military operations by Russia could spoil economic relations with the West for decades.

Posted by: ToivoS | Mar 2 2014 4:06 utc | 136


Fascists tried to seize and occupy the building of the regional government in Kharkov. The whole city has risen against them. Here is a video from the conclusion of the standoff. Fascists working for NATO ... a surprise?

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 4:06 utc | 137

'This is pretty far down the thread, but I wanted to add something about Putin I was in Moscow last year for a conference (I was introduced to Medvedev as part of it) and I had occasion to talk with some academics about Putin's election, which they regarded as somewhat though not totally fixed. I was interested in what they thought he wanted, and the answer was that they believed Putin thought he was Russia's saviour, which to them and to me at the time seemed a bit exaggerated. Looking over what has happened in the past six to eight months, one might suppose he saw or knew what was coming. He is clearly the man for the situation--at least this one. He is going to go down in history as one of the great Russian Tsars.

As to the US role in all this, the real question is who's running the show? It is certainly not Obama, who seems to be out of the loop.

Posted by: Knut | Mar 1, 2014 4:10:18 PM | 85'

bizarre...if its fixed elections your looking for:

Putin is no tsar/czar nor a megalomaniac....he is what no US or EU 'democracticaly elected' leaders are...honest capable shrewd independent

he is the man of the moment:

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 4:14 utc | 138

Posted by: neretva'43 | Mar 1, 2014 4:18:36 PM | 87

if you go back far enough, there were no people in western europe at all

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 4:16 utc | 139

Posted by: somebody | Mar 1, 2014 5:03:08 PM | 99

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 4:16 utc | 140

107) It is simple.

Putin could have said, he is supporting the will of the people as Crimeans (and other regions) have a right on a referendum on independence. This would have been in the boundaries of international law and would have paralleled Kosovo. It would have paralleled the Sottish move for independence.

He did not as this argument would have opened up the Russian Federation to all kinds of mischief which the US is clearly supporting by cultivating "threatened" minorities.

He could have said that chaos and right wing take over, intimidation prevented the Ukrainian people from being free in Ukraine and he was safeguarding people's life (like France in Mali).

He could have done that and looked good, like France in Mali.

But according to his own "Voice of Russia" he said

Putin said to President Obama that in case if the violence in Ukraine and Crimea spreads, the Russian Federation reserves the right to protect its interests and the interests of the Russian-speaking citizens.

If this is a policy it is a Russian ethnic nationalist policy which is by definition fascist and lets this conflict go down the way of Ex-Yugoslavia.

It disawows the rights of the speakers of other languages in the Russian Federation and has the potential for nationalist wars in the huge ex Soviet Union - there are ethnic Russians everywhere.

I agree that he was provoked by fascists poking historical fascist national Ukrainian flags into the bear's eye, and that he is not the only one playing the nationalist fascist card in this conflict. But there is no mistake, he is playing a nationalist fascist card now and it is nasty in its consequence.

As is, the language policy of the Soviet Union was much more advanced than the language policy of the Russian Federation. Maybe they should go back to the Soviet heritage.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 4:35 utc | 141

After both reading all posts here (incl. insane n'43 bullshit) and updating myself to the newest available status ...

Front up: Thanks once more to b for very insightful articles and analysis.

There is only one point I disagree with. Again, Sevastopol is *not* important, and even less vital, for Russia militarily. That does, however, not mean it's unimportant or Russia would give it up easily.
First, Sevastopol, and generally Crimea, has high historic and emotional value for Russia. More importantly though, both are vital links as well as symbols of Russias close links to Crimea and ukraine. Giving up Sevastopol would feel like, and mean, that Russia shamefully gave in and was to weak to hold on to very old traditionally Russian territories.

Leaving aside of all the (mainly western) noise and political farting the reality on the ground looks like this to me:

- Russia has strongly enhanced their position in Crimea as well as generally in the ukrainian conflict.
- Russia has now - finally * sigh - given up its reluctance to be seen as even vaguely not peaceful and nice and has strongly and on different levels formalized and officialized both its position and its unconditional readiness to no matter how far is needed and to not be easily pushed into giving in to completely treacherous and senseless "dialogues".
- kyiv has also shown it face - and a very ugly face - more openly by demonstrating the power in the hands of nazis, by the complete insignificance of the official "new government", by the open call on chechen terrorist "help", and other signals of abomination and - in effect - complete helplessness.
- Russia meanwhile has strongly extended its (political) position throughout major parts of the russian speaking eastern and southern regions.
- the terrorist kyiv regime as well as their criminal supporters zusa have, relatively smartly, recognized, and acted upon, although weakly, that Odessa is about the only major region that isn't yet bound to be lost. And they are right insofar as the eastern region will almost definitely fall to the Russian side and will also strongly fight against kyiv and zusa; going there would be both suicidal and senseless. Additionally Odessa has high strategic value; holding or taking it would mean having or loosing access of the complete norther black sea cost.

I think that Russia will not start an open war with zusa but they are definitely ready and well prepared to respond immediately to any aggressive open step zusa might take. It seems clear to me that there is already a (probably rather small) Russian submarine not far away from the zusa navy ships, ready to destroy and sink them on short notice.
In that context, while of course potentially treacherous (as *everything* zamericans do or say), zusa for the moment chose to describe their presence at the ukrainian cost as "humanitarian" and supportive only. Frankly, looking at those two ships, it could hardly be more done by them, if that; Their potential is basically merely political (a good reason to sink them anyway).

I'm expecting zusa staying - officially - on a very low level; Quite probably they will send in some more troups, disguised of course, but they won't do much more than creating a little havoc here and there. While not very probable they might try another spec. ops attack on some Crimean infrastructure but I don't doubt that they would be caught or shot. If the high risk is worth a small gain to zusa will be seen.

One of major Russian worries is almost certainly the criminal regime. Not in terms of danger (Russia doesn't fear them or anything they might do not more than a single mosquito) but in terms of them fleeing in time and destroying valuable evidence of their crimes and zusas and others involvement.
I therefore expect quite a few secretive Russian spec. forces group to roam and recon the kiev structures, buildings, and persons in charge, ready and preparing for a quick and hard hit at the right moment. It seems reasonable to assume that such an action, the "finale" will come rather soon, and that official Russian military contingents would surprise enter kiev, quite probably by air (a typical job for the 76th air assault group, which, btw. is *not* called nor is it actually (used as) "shock troups". I don't know where this bullshit came from), under the pretext, which would be true for the largest part, of protecting the governments major installations so as to allow yanukovich, after all still the legitimate president, to reinstall due and proper democratic governmental institutions. Of, course this Russian step would be fully covered by a signed request of yanukovich. And indeed those Russian troups would certainly not do anything but protecting the government and building, as rude as necessary but as quiet and peaceful as any possible. One exception: They will also get hold of the terrorists and deliver them to a highly secure prison under strong control of Russian forces and later of loyal but ukrainian Berkut.

If yanukovich has any brains and pieces of a spine left, he will use the situation to also either clean out or at least send a very strong signal to the oligarchs that ukraine just *has* to become more democratic and act more legitimately than before.

It goes without saying that ukraine as a whole will have learned a lot and that both zusa and zeu will be not welcome (to avoid saying "hated") in any role whatsoever.

As far as I'm concerned it also goes without saying that, once the situation is settled and under full control of legitimate ukrainian authorities, Russia will quickly, discretely, and fully withdraw and again respect the souvereignty of ukraina, albeit with doubtlessly stronger and considerably more autonomous eastern and southern regions.

There is also, I have to "confess", one point where I erred before, thinking that Russia might go for the pro-russian part only and let zusa/zeu have the worthless rest. Evidently Russia now goes for zusa and zeu *completely* and for a long time losing the whole of ukraine.

I'm also expecting that Russia will send a discrete but *very strong* message to never again dare to fuck around with Russias interests or else ...

Last but not least I'm expecting this whole thing to have seemingly small but very dire consequences for zusa and zeu. zusa will suffer an *immense* loss of respect globally and increasingly many will consider zusa a toothless bigmouth (and certainly not a protector, even less one that can be trusted). This might all in all well be the very stone over which zusa falls in their asian attempts and it will certainly also a) embolden other countries (like Iran) and b) convince Russia that zusa scum only understands heavy blows right in their visage.
Quite possibly - not only - China will take this situation also as a further factor for considering the us$ as again less attractive and for getting rid of it even faster.

As for zeu I expect (among others) merkel to very considerably lose weight (and possibly experiencing unpleasant consequences in her own germany). In the long run I understand the ukrainian affair to show itself to be a major hurdle and possibly one that will speed up the breaking of at least zeuro and possibly zeu.

Concerning turkey I'd order popcorn. You might need it watching what will happen there.

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 4:49 utc | 142

That's it, Canada is going to war, not with Russia, but with Putin. We are doomed:

Canada recalls its ambassador

Posted by: Paul | Mar 2 2014 4:54 utc | 143

I'm also expecting that Russia will send a discrete but *very strong* message to never again dare to fuck around with Russias interests or else ...

Correction: I'm also expecting that Russia will send a discrete but *very strong* message to poland and the baltic statest (among others) to never again dare to fuck around with Russias interests or else ...

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 5:02 utc | 144

Obama has done it again. He hangs his ass on the line by making threats about consequences for some other country not behaving as he would like. Hasn't he fired the advisors who got him to do this the two or three previous times? The neo-con courtiers con him into making public threats to maneuver him into pursuing their aggressive policies against their enemies not b/c it's good policy but now b/c his personal pride as a man is at stake.

But what's he going to do? Sanction Russia? Deny economic freedom to more American business men who have should have a right to do business with whatever countries they like? Screw up the US economy more? Bomb somebody?

Russia will use this as an chance to reclaim Crimea and maybe more of Ukraine and can't say I blame them. Should we feel bad for the Ukrainians and Tatars? Prob not as long as some of Ukraine they can call home persists. Ukraine's borders seem to have been pretty amorphous even recently (historically). The Tatars shouldn't be any worse off under the Russians than under the Ukrainians, should they?

This whole thing might end in Russia doing an about-face and abandoning any cooperation on Iran's nuclear program. That would be serious. I want this to happen b/c I oppose the way Iran is being strangled and threatened. But I worry that if Russia begins assisting Iran against Israel/US coercion it may make a negotiated settlement less likely and therefore a Golem-State USA war with Iran may become unavoidable. And that would be bad. The dominoes are falling...

Posted by: J. Bradley | Mar 2 2014 5:34 utc | 145

Looks like this is going to fall right onto the lap of General Demsey .. Hopefully he can wake the administraion up....

On the republican sides of the issue, if Admirals McCain were both alive I think Jr....would be having his hinney handed to him... Lindsey Graham? Henfits the bill for that ... special kind of stupid... category....

Posted by: Hillbilly | Mar 2 2014 5:43 utc | 146

Three pre-Iraq war wishes of the sorceress Condoleeza Rice that still hold true: we shall punish France, ignore Germany and forgive Rrrrrussia!!
So France is sentenced with two sequential cretins in the Palais Elysees with no reprieve in sight.
Angela Merkel is ignored/overlooked as some hausfrau who juggles EU household finances but must be spied upon so that she doesn’t try to cheat.
And Russia, sorceress, demanded her Smeagol-looking apprentice Nuland? What can we do, laments Condi, but forgive Russia again and again? More power to Putin!
After the Sochi meeting between the Russian and Chinese leaders, a joint statement denounced and called for an end to foreign meddling in Ukraine; subtext of which Russia was also not going to stick a finger into the Ukrainian pie.
But talking reason with Western ideologues is like offering Oreos to the Cookie Monster; the nature of the beast means that it is never enough.
Ukraine is their new cake to bake. Assorted fruits, nuts and neo-cons threw themselves into the mix and turned the heat up.
But looks like baking class got the recipe wrong. Soon to get cake all over their faces from Mr Putin.
Memo to Nuland, Cameron and gang: ``You can’t take the heat, stay the f**k outta my Ukrainian kitchen.’’
Smile, guys, and forgive Russia. Again.
China will support Russia diplomatically and –if necessary, in case of real hot war - financially. The stakes are very high. Ukraine is just a little cupcake to the West. They can’t wait to get a bite of the mother of all cakes: Russia and then China.

Posted by: nakedtothebone | Mar 2 2014 5:47 utc | 147

Forget zusa.

zusa can't and won't do anything but possibly some small "face keeping" troublemaking attempts.

I have no problem to publicly state with high confidence that zusa will, in fact, even try to avoid any trouble to escalate into a military dimension.

The reasons are simple: Any war zusa - Russia would basically be similar to a war Iraq - zusa. Their soldiers are worthless and so are their weapon systems.

zusa is like a youngster of whom everyone believes that he has a black belt in Teak Won Do and therefor is afraid. zusa lives by pretending and others believing it to be and to be able what it isn't and can't.

Fact is that Russia has brought in thousands of troups and zusa is even accusing Russia of wanting to start or even alreading fighting a war - and yet, they do basically nothing other than sending a worthless and powerless token in the form of two ships. And if that wasn't clear enough they on top of it declare those ships to conduct merely a humanitarian and supportive mission.

They might as well say "Dear president Putin, you see, we just must do something, anything to avoid looking like complete toothless idiots. But please, pretty please, so by no means consider this as the smallest of threats!"

So, if zusa is such a superpower and if Russia is an evil aggressor who spoils important and holy democratic developments, why on earth don't do the zamericans more than fart self-importantly?

Where are the hundreds of transport airplanes bringing in zusa troups and material? Where are the big fleets heading for Bosporus to show Russia its place? Where is even just a clear and open military threat?

Russia will pull this off any way they fucking please. And the only reason Putin doesn't simply take the whole of ukraine is that Russia is a civilized country that, unlike zusa, doesnt conduct illegal mass murder missions and that doesn't *want* ukraine.

Quite probably zusa major concern right now is how to not look as weak, insignificant, stupid, and completely unimportant as it actually is. And klitchkos, timochenkos and the other terrorists, traitors, and criminals major real concern is packing their things and finding the best country to flee to quite soon.

Now, feel free to go ahead and bother me with the next "statement" of some insignificant zamerican farting puppet.

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 6:08 utc | 148

Good work, Mr Pragma, b, and many others. MoA has for many years now, proven to be a very significant source of information and informed analysis.

Posted by: DM | Mar 2 2014 6:37 utc | 149

My predictions from yesterday. (1.3.2014)

Arseniy Yatsenyuk ("Yats") will be the first one to flee Kiev. He will be rewarded with a nice teaching job at the Harvard University, the home of the Holodomor hoax.

Both Dmitro Yarosh and Andriy Parubiy will have their brains blasted out with head shots.

Dmitro Yarosh will be eliminated by Russian Spetsnaz with a Dragunov sniper rifle from 900 meters.

Andriy Parubiy will be executed for treason by a fellow Nazi. The weapon of choice will be a Luger P08 pistol from the 1942 production run.

Oleh Tyahnybok will get the Ambassadorial Benghazi treatment – butt-raped by an angry mob. He might survive.

Yulia Tymoshenko will become president of Rumpistan. She will try to promote good economic relations with Russia.

Vitali Klitschko will become best friends with Nikolai Valuev. They will go on a World Tour together, promoting peace, boxing, and friendship between nations.

Novorossiya will become a part of the Eurasian Union. Initially it will call itself “Ukraine” and claim legal succession from the failed state by the same name. It will take responsibility for Ukraine's debt to Russia. The capital city will be moved to Kharkov.

Transnistria will become a part of Novorossiya.

The Crimea will become an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation.

Zakarpattia Oblast in the west will become an integral part of the Russian Federation, ruled directly from Moscow. It will however not join the Russian economic area or customs union, but receive a special status in the European Economic Area, with free movement of people and capital. It will most likely adopt the Euro.

Sumy Oblast may join Russia directly.

Rumpistan will have to clean up its own mess, with or without its Nazis. In the end, no one may want Banderastan. The US may adopt is as an al-Qaeda training base.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Mar 2 2014 7:20 utc | 150

Iran deputy FM in Moscow

Posted by: Paul | Mar 2 2014 7:30 utc | 151

151) from your link

Amir-Abdollahian and Bogdanov are also going to exchange ideas on how to find a diplomatic solution for the Syrian crisis, and the various dimensions of the Ukraine crisis.

Russian language in Azerbajan

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 7:44 utc | 152

Russian language in Georgia

We are back to 19th/20th century ethnic language wars.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 7:51 utc | 153

Ever since the ill faded first orange revolution 9 years ago, Russia knew which strategy USrael/EU would be using to bring Ukraine finally under their banner. Any Russian government not anticipating and hence preparing for the West's second attempt at the Ukraine would have been highly negligent - I am convinced Putin and his team have for years been working on a counter strategy.

Russia won't have to send troops, its forces have been in place since long before the putsch, waiting for the day. Weapons and lists of local Ukrainians willing to act as militias defending their regions against the putschists have quietly been assembled for some time, giving the armed response to the Western coup attempt a distinct Ukrainian look and feel.

The West, so predictable in its relentless pursuit of hegemony, fell into a trap. The Russians monitored the Maidan movement all along, hoping the West will pull through with it. They knew it was planned for the Olympics but held their nerves and played it cool, acting all surprised.

As a matter of fact, it was perfect timing for Putin. The Olympics were a great pretext to appear as sitting on the sidelines and seemingly hamstrung by hosting the winter games unable to stop the events in Kiev unfolding.

What we are seeing now is a shrewd strategy being enacted as planned. It was clear as day to Putin that sooner or later the West Ukrainians would want to drag the country towards the EU and NATO. Short of a military invasion there is little he could do about it.

But hey, good riddance, let those farmers become EU slaves and have the EU pay for their upkeep and deal with the ultra right wing tendencies amongst its population.

Important to Putin is that the Eastern parts of Ukraine were brought back into the Russian sphere, essentially expanding Russian territory towards the West. And that is pretty much what is happening now.

Not just the Crimea will secede from Ukraine, the way the numbers are stacked I expect other regions also to hold referendums and with a majority decision to join their Russian neighbors. The snakes in Brussels and Washington will learn that democracy cuts both ways.

Since none of the important players involved in operation Ukraine wants a war, I predict that there won't be one. All Putin has to do is ensure that referendums will be held in those regions where a majority of the population are known to rather be Russian than being part of a fascist Ukraine. And how is the West, the much belabored champion of democracy, going to stop those elections from happening without loosing credibility? Snookered.

And the Merkels, Camerons and Nulands of this world can't do anything but frustrated by events overtaking them swivel in their chairs and wail about the lost opportunity.

Posted by: Juan Moment | Mar 2 2014 8:16 utc | 154

Official statement Russian Embassy in Britain

The numerous calls by the Russian authorities aimed at de-escalating the situation have been futile. Instead of addressing the situation through structures such as the OSCE and the Council of Europe that have a solid expertise in the field of human rights, including minority rights, and constitutional law, we have seen the Ukraine situation discussed by NATO, which certainly sent the wrong message. President Obama, rather than calling upon the ostensibly pro-Western "authorities" in Kiev to de-escalate tensions, has accused Russia of preparing an intervention and threatened with "costs".

Given the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of Russian nationals and our compatriots, as well as the Black Sea Fleet personnel, President Vladimir Putin has been compelled to use his constitutional powers and to seek approval of the Upper Chamber of Parliament, the Federation Council, for use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the territory of Ukraine pending normalisation of public order and political situation in that country. That request has been granted, although that doesn’t mean that the President will use his powers immediately.

Russia remains open to cooperation with all partners in order to seek a political solution to the crisis. What is needed is a clear understanding that this cooperation is honest and based not simply on the ability to hold fruitful negotiations but also on the ability to comply with agreements that take account of the interests of the entire Ukrainian people and all partners of Ukraine.

They are correct US/EU were acting confrontational. Let's see if they will be able to talk now.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 8:17 utc | 155

Just a small but possibly interesting detail.

You wouldn't (want to) try killing someone from 900m with a Dragunov "sniper rifle". Because it's sometimes called a sniper rifle but isn't and never was meant to be. It was meant to be what nowadays would be called a longrange infantry rifle and, thanks to its (relative) precision, it has become something akin to a designated marksman rifle. For that it's actually supposedly superior to most western analogs.

And I'm btw. not expecting Russia to kill anyone, not even the terrorists, unless they have to do so in defense. What they'll do is to make sure that the terrorists and traitors will be brought to justice in ukraine. And they need not be worried about ukraine handing out too lenient sentences once a proper government is reinstalled.

I personally would make one exception though, timochenko. This snake should be shot so as to make sure that this was her last perfidious attack. If she wishes to do so her good friend merkel may stand next to her at the wall. But don't hold your breath; friendships between politicians are of limited quality.

Ceterum censeo israel americanamque vehementer delenda esse.

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 8:20 utc | 156

And of course there are still Russian speakers in Tajikistan

The US is leaving Afghanistan for good. What will Russia do there?

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 8:46 utc | 157

Interesting comments here
to the stupid interview of an adviser of the new authorities in Kiev who states that "all the local elites in Eastern Ukraine have expressed their loyalty to Kiev" !!
Same as with Syria... finding the guys who provide the official line and spread it in MSM/Twitter/FB as nauseam.

Apart from a preparation for a conflict in the Middle East, I can't see what EU/USA think they are planning. After all they have no B plan for the Syrians, the Palestinians, and still nothing more than 'strong condemnations' against the Israeli bulldozers and new colonies (and bringing in another few planes of refugees from Ukraine always help construction business there).

Posted by: Mina | Mar 2 2014 9:13 utc | 158

158) Yep, what do they intend to do now?

Isolate Russia, China, Iran ? Stop banking? Freeze their assets?

Good luck.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 9:19 utc | 159

Looks like we are back to the future. The more things change the more they stay the same. I guess that the struggle between the US and Soviet Union was not about capitalism after all. There was more, much more to it. All the Russians have to lose now is their existence. The Cossacks of Ukraine, Don and Azov will break on the side of Russia, as they always have. It is not the native Russians who protest in the East. It is the Ukrainian descendants of the Cossacks who do. I pointed out before that the Cossacks live on both sides of the East Ukrainian border.

I read that the Rusyns are attempting to start conscription in Ukraine:

I did a brief search of the internet on Rusyn oppression under Poland and instead found this on a white power site:

The central and east Cossacks will not fight against Russians for the Rusyns and their Polish and EU friends full stop.
The Rusyns had been oppressed under the Polish. It is actually amazing that they are friends with Poland.

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 9:20 utc | 160


"Russia is a civilized country that, unlike zusa, doesnt conduct illegal mass murder missions"


so you're a comedian as well

Posted by: Another Jeff | Mar 2 2014 9:25 utc | 161

Care to name one....

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 9:36 utc | 162

By one I mean an illegal mass murder mission...

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 9:41 utc | 163

BBC breaking news: "Breaking News: Ukraine is to call up all its military reservists, the government has announced. "

If they need to count how many are really supporting them, wasn't it easier to organise a referendum?

Posted by: Mina | Mar 2 2014 10:02 utc | 164

What is really scary if they open the arsenals and provide heavy weapons to their neo-nazi 'reservists' like they started doing in the east before the putsch. And meanwhile our fascist western leaders cheering and talking about 'democracy'.

What are the Ukrainian officers in charge of army bases and weapon storages going to do?

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 2 2014 10:05 utc | 165

Supporters of the Euromaidan thrown out of Kharkiv... pictures, can see swatika:

The opponents of the illegal government/US Imperial Stooges threw out the Rusyns NAZI/US stooges from a government building. THis is described in WP:

The story is about who these Rusyn NAZI are... basically teenagers required for promise to make some cash. When the crowd began an advance on the NAZIs, the NAZI leaders tossed the boys in the crowd to be beaten, while themselves retreated through back doors. Similar teenagers were sent to Crimia...

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 10:06 utc | 166

The call up of military reserves will be partial... probably meaning mostly in the West

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 10:08 utc | 167

165) That sounds like they plan to go the civil war route.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 10:09 utc | 168

Canadian and US ambassadors left Moscow....

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 10:11 utc | 169

169) The US ambassador was home "for family reasons" well before this happened. No replacement.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 10:33 utc | 170

That's right, I missed that...

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 10:40 utc | 171

I'd expect every kind of preparation for referenda in the eastern part of Ukraine, I see no other way for the regional powers and russia to go. It would best if these referenda took place in a somewhat quick and (then still) peaceful and quiet way. The only countermeasure that the west can take is creating as much noise and chaos as possible, so, if preparations for independence are made, we'll probably see more tangible right-sector terrorism...
NATO will never agree to a seperation or split. Maybe if it's only Crimea, but Russia on the other hand will never let the whole of Ukraine slip away and only "keep" Crimea (if at all).
And we all know how little NATO cares about bloody conflicts without or even with NATO troops.

Posted by: peter radiator | Mar 2 2014 10:45 utc | 172

Crimea’s Deputy PM: Temirgaliev " Ukrainian military have all but surrendered active units remain in the Crimea"
Ukrainian armed forces dispatched to Crimea have started resigning on a massive scale, Russia news agencies reported.

Facts you need to know about Crimea and why it is in turmoil

Living quarters, weapons and ammunition have all been left under the protection of the so-called ‘self-defense forces.’

Letters of resignation have been coming in since early morning, as the self-defense forces continue to preserve order on the streets of Simferopol, RIA Novosti said citing own reporters on the ground.

Since Thursday, the city’s Supreme Council and a number of other buildings have been occupied and guarded by the self-defense forces run by the local population.

Crimea’s deputy prime minister, Rustam Temirgaliev, announced earlier that the Ukrainian armed forces have all but surrendered their military capabilities and that no active units remain in the Crimea.

"The entire Ukrainian armed forces stationed on the Crimean territory have been blocked – a number have been disarmed, while another big portion is switching to the Crimean side," Interfax reported him as saying.

"The self-defense forces have taken control of the landing strips of all the Crimean airports and airfields," Temirgaliev added.

The deputy PM said that that the region’s security services and emergency services now report to the local government, while self-defense forces control all the runways at Crimea’s airports and airfields.

The local government, Temirgaliev went on, will promise the ethnic Crimean Tatar minority a place in Crimea’s Supreme Council, adding that funding for programs of resettlement and reintegration of those deported during the Stalin era will be plentiful. The Crimean Tatars have been supporting the self-proclaimed authorities in Kiev.

Crimeans began protesting after the new self-imposed government in Kiev introduced a law abolishing the use of other languages for official documents in Ukraine. More than half the Crimean population are Russian and use only this language for their communication. The residents have announced they are going to hold a referendum on March 30 to determine the fate of the Ukrainian autonomous region.

Posted by: brian | Mar 2 2014 10:46 utc | 173

@ 163

an illegal one?

so, legal ones are ok????

how about I pick something out of Chechnya? Novye Aldi? not sure if this one was "legal" or "illegal"

Posted by: Another Jeff | Mar 2 2014 10:53 utc | 174

The legislature passed an appeal to the countries guarantors of Ukraine security under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Basically they want "observers" to learn about the situation in Ukraine and 2, they want help to secure nuclear installations.

Signatories of the memorandum are US, UK, France, China and Russia

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 11:00 utc | 175

175) As a matter of fact, signators are US, UK, Russia.

They are completely out of their debt. They have not thought through any of this, neither do they control any security forces - I think they got rid of most of them.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 11:10 utc | 176

176/ that was depth, but debt applies also.

They have not called for a no fly zone yet.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 11:17 utc | 177

177) I forgot, they are the government. They ordered a no fly zone themselves now.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 11:23 utc | 178

The word "legal" is not mine, but the original poster's with whom you seemed to disagree. So, you have to define the terms.

If you remember in the Aldi, regular Russian troops did not harm the villagers and explicitly warned them about the contract mercenaries that followed them. As far as I understand, it was a bunch of drunken scum that shot people for money and valuables. The killings were NOT ordered or condoned in any fashion by the Russian military. The military obviously failed to control the mercenaries or to properly investigate and punish them. On other hand, the contract killers were probably some sort of mob members from the beginning, and so even in the case of one of them who was charged, he simply disappeared into the underworld.

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 11:31 utc | 179

11:17: "We are on the brink of disaster," Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is quoted as saying by the AFP news agency.

What's the problem, dud? The plan is just getting on perfectly as expected. You feel the glue stinks or what?

Posted by: Mina | Mar 2 2014 11:32 utc | 180

NATO will never agree to a seperation or split.

They need not because Russia is not seeking to split ukraine.

But, just for the sake of completeness: Nor did my neighbours wife. And now they are divorced.

Or, in other words: So what? zatos desires and dislikes are irrelevant. Anyway zato just means "zusa and izrael and their colonies minions and slaves".

This weekend will be remembered as the weekend the zusa wannabe-empire began to fall.

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 11:33 utc | 181

Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.

I suppose the democrats thugs in Kiev will be conscripting an all volunteer army to fight the Russians under leadership of Aleksandr Musytschko. Who in Kyiv made the call for 'friend' Usmarov to act against Russia? [Propaganda alert!]

Posted by: Oui | Mar 2 2014 11:36 utc | 182

This here is an interesting take.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine push the west into an economic war?

Few people betrayed any grasp of the odds that they were living through the last days of globalisation and multilateral order – but they are high ...

It is an interesting take but just not possible, I think.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 2 2014 11:38 utc | 183

Yes, but France and China made "individual statements". It is not clear what the Chinese actually promised. The new regime considers them to be signatories or close to it, while others contend that the Chinese merely promised not to nuke them...

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 11:39 utc | 184

"Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad."

As things stand, Russia's only just waiting for the crazies in Kiev to fire the first shot - yep, you can count on them for them.

They've escalated things to a point where they can't back down..I expect a large portion of the troops in the West to defect. Nobody in their right mind will spill blood for those Maidan clowns. it ain't worth it.

The boxer better get his visas and passport ready...

Fun times :)

Posted by: Zico | Mar 2 2014 11:42 utc | 185

somebody (183)

Well, while I wouldn't bet my cat on it, I actually think that such a prognosis might not be that far off. Just some short thoughts:

merkel/Germany is the core and major part of zeus austerity block. And she isn't exactly loved for that by another increasingly powerful group, the anti-austerity block, basically the southern countries and, to a degree, France.

Having a severly damaged reputation due to her support for klitschko and his terrorist and nazi friends in ukraine, it might well turn out that now the anti-austerity block gains the upper hand and a weakened merkel can't dictate any longer major lines of zeus fiscal regime.

At the same time, zeus "friends" (and dictators), zusa, will doubtlessly experience serious financial and economic blows as a consequence for their failed badly criminal attempt in ukraine.

Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Mar 2 2014 11:53 utc | 186

The West will fight. They have been wanting to since 1939. It has been their - grandfathers', their sons' and grandsons' - dream to die while killing as many Russians as possible. They are fully mad and won't listen to reason. I don't fully understand where it comes from, because as I noted the West Ukraine had been oppressed by the Polish for centuries. The reason they are so poor is because the Poles would not invest in their land and endlessly extract wealth from them. It is a kind weird Stockholm syndrome on an ethnic level.

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 11:54 utc | 187

Bahaha the stupid barack obama say Russia is violating international law,
the man that are all over the world with its army!

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 2 2014 11:55 utc | 188


If you were Obama, would you risk your good life for a worst case scenario a nuclear collapse or in a mild case a collapse of the stock market tomorrow. Life is good in hedge-kistan. It would not be like attacking a much depleted powerless schmuk that you yourself installed and supported for decades. The end of free-trade and loss of manufacturing base in Asia would be one consequence. And who knows how the world would look at the other end of the calamity...

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 12:10 utc | 189

More on the Omidyar 'intervention'. The Intercept (Omidyar's media venture), has piece by Glenn Greenwald. Here's part of what he has to say:

(1) The Pando article adopts the tone of bold investigative journalism that intrepidly dug deep into secret materials and uncovered a “shocking” bombshell (“Step out of the shadows…. Pierre Omidyar”). But as I just discovered with literally 5 minutes of Googling, the Omidyar Network’s support for the Ukrainian group in question, Centre UA, has long been publicly known: because the Omidyar Network announced the investment at the time in a press release and then explained it on its website.

In a September 15, 2011 press release, the Omidyar Network “announced today its intent to grant up to $3M to six leading organizations focused on advancing government transparency and accountability” including “Centre UA (Ukraine)”. The Network then devoted an entire page of its website (entitled “New Citizen (Centre UA)”) to touting the investment and explaining its rationale and purpose (the group, claims the Network, “seeks to enable citizen participation in national and regional politics by amplifying the voices of Ukrainian citizens and promoting open and accountable government”).

The upshot is that Greenwald doesn't seem to have a problem with a billionaire funding anti-government ngos (even if they do talk about 'transparency' etc, being their objective).

(3) Despite its being publicly disclosed, I was not previously aware that the Omidyar Network donated to this Ukrainian group. That’s because, prior to creating The Intercept with Laura Poitras and Jeremy Scahill, I did not research Omidyar’s political views or donations. That’s because his political views and donations are of no special interest to me – any more than I cared about the political views of the family that owns and funds Salon (about which I know literally nothing, despite having worked there for almost 6 years), or any more than I cared about the political views of those who control the Guardian Trust.

I love it, "Omidyar's political views are of no special interest to me". Well jolly good for him. More liberal bullshit.

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 2 2014 12:11 utc | 190

Gleenwald cant longer be taken serious if he defend this "omidyar".

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 2 2014 12:20 utc | 191

@187: Simply put, a very long history dating back to the Kingdom of Galicia. However, Stalin's oppression would leave scars lasting generations. The collaboration with Nazi Germany and the deaths of 1.5 million Ukrainian Jews grew the fascism seen today in the West. Very similar to all of Central Europe from Berlin eastward.

Ukraine's Holodomor of 1933 and the Maidan Revolution

Posted by: Oui | Mar 2 2014 12:34 utc | 192

@William Bowles: My research and rebuttal here - Confirmed: Omidyar's NGOs Clearly Partner in Regime Change.

Unwittingly, the saga of the faked black-ops sniper video published by RFERL on 20 February 2014, is connected with the publication by Mark Ames and response of Marcy Wheeler to the NGOs and media outlets under responsiblility of billionaire Omidyar.

Posted by: Oui | Mar 2 2014 12:37 utc | 193

I have a difficulty seeing what you are trying to say. Galicia did not join the rest of Ukraine until 1939, see map at 73. Look at this map of Holodomor ( Galicia is NOT on this map!! And large chunks of Russia were also under Holodomor not less severe than the Cossack Ukraine.

When the Poland was split between the nazis and the soviets, the Poles decided to fight against the Germans, while the Rusyns collaborated with the NAZI. There is now a revision of the latter fact for the purposes to conceal it. They entered into Ukrainische Hilfspolizei, which perpetrated many killing of the Jewish people. Members of the Ukrainische Hilfspolizei composed a Rusyn NAZI organization called Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists. They did not like to be called Rusyn because ironically Rusyn means little or puny Russian. OUN then became a basis for the Bataillon Ukrainische Gruppe Nachtigall and Battalion Ukrainische Gruppe Roland.

Stepan Bandera, the spiritual leader of the West, organized the battalions. It was bad that they were essentially skinheads, they were also stupid somehow ignoring the fact that the NAZI considered them Untermensch. Read this Wiki entry The NAZIs did not recognize Ukrainians, they only saw Rusyns and Russians.

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 13:20 utc | 194

Rusyns unfortunately don't have a history to be especially proud of, and so they stole a lot of things from the East. The Maidan mutineers are organized into sotni. Sotni is a Cossack unit of organization. They talk about Holodomor as if they had been actually affected.

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 13:22 utc | 195


Oui, has this info been communicated to GG? Reading through his piece on The Intercept once more, I get the feeling that GG was caught hopping on this one and totally out of the loop, what with all the guff about 'not knowing about it' and having to 'catch up' with news on Omidyar's funding of subversive organisations. If not, then he is an amoral bastard, especially if the claims on your page are correct (about PANDO etc). I can't believe that GG would get in bed with a billionaire without doing some kind of background check on him, if only to protect his own arse.

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 2 2014 13:44 utc | 196

Should add a couple of explanations to my 194. Holodomor happened in 1932-33, Rusyn Galicia ended up a part of the Soviet Union after Hitler and Stalin split Poland. Before that it had been from the time immemorable a part of Poland or one or another kingdom.

Bataillon Ukrainische Gruppe Nachtigall and Battalion Ukrainische Gruppe Roland were German military units composed of Rusyns with participation of Stepan Bandera.

I should also mention 14th SS-Volunteer Division Galician. Note, this was an Schutzstaffel - SS unit. This unit was formed by the nazi themselves later in the war. By 1945, it became part of the army of the Ukrainian Nationalist. In 1949, there was still fighting between the Soviet army and the Rusyn Nazis in the Carpathian. Then they went into hiding to re-emerge in Kiev on the Maydan some 60+ years later...

Posted by: CC | Mar 2 2014 13:49 utc | 197

Re Bandera et al. As it happens, my maternal grandfather came from what was then the Ukraine and possibly now is part of Belarus or maybe Poland, or even the Ukraine. Who knows?

My mother, back in the 80s managed to track down, one, yes the one surviving relative of the Nazi occupation who wasn't exterminated, an uncle of hers who was a professor of history at Kiev uni. There is no record of what happened to them. My grandfather came to the UK sometime in the 1890s to escape from the Cossack pogroms. He died in Manchester shortly after Hitler invaded the SU in 41.

I think we simply do not comprehend what WWII means to the Russian people, who lost anywhere between 20 and 30 million people. There is no way in hell that Russia will permit the remnants of the Nazi onslaught to govern in the Ukraine. Period.

At the same time, it's indicative of the total failure of the Soviet Union to deal with the legacy off WWII that's come back to haunt us, and it seems, right across Europe. It's also the total failure of the Western left, such as it is, to offer a viable alternative to the current barbarism.

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 2 2014 13:58 utc | 198

If the fact that he, as holder of the Snowden Secrets, has a boss that works for or with the CIA doesn't bother Glenn or any of his followers then you'd really have to question their grip on reality

So far honest ethical Glenn has completely dismissed as "not important to me", evidence of:

  • Omidyar's use of so-called "Micro-Finance Initiaves" to screw some of the poorest people in the world,
  • Omidyar's allowing PayPal to launch a financial attack on Wikileaks
  • and now Omidyar's working relationship with/for the CIA

Just where would Glenn and his dedicated band of followers draw a line?

Do they even have such a concept as "a line" where hero Glenn is concerned?

It certainly doesn't look like it

Posted by: brb | Mar 2 2014 13:58 utc | 199

You should check this!, it would show you more facts..,-Ruling-AKP-Provokes-Ukraine-2442

Posted by: Bulent Demirel | Mar 2 2014 14:20 utc | 200

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