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Syria: Erdogan’s False Flag Invasion Plans Reveled
Updated below.
An March 23 the AlQaeda affiliated groups Jabhat al Nusra and Ahrar al-Shams consiting of foreign men crossed the border from Turkey and attacked the western Syrian province of Latakia. The seized the Kasab border crossing and the Armenian town Kessab. People there fled as the Jihadist removed the crosses from the Armenian churches and replaced them with their black flag. The Jihadist groups were given artillery support and anti-air cover from Turkey. A Syrian jet on a bombing run against the Jihadists was shot down by the Turkish air-force.
The Jihadist managed to capture several hill sides before being stopped by reinforcing Syrian forces. After the plane was shot down Syrian anti-air radars painted any Turkish flight coming near its border ready to shot them down. Heavy artillery is used against the intruders and they are said to have high casualties. Their wounded get transported to the Turkish border and find help in Turkish hospitals. The Jihadist campaign is clearly in trouble and it may only take a few days until they will have to give up and retreat.
The Turkish prime minister Erdogan and his foreign minister Davutoglu have further plans. They allege that the Tomb of Süleyman Shah, a small place in Syria 25 kilometer from the Turkish border but under Turkish sovereignty, is threatened by Jihadist group Islamic State (ISIS). They say that Turkish troops are ready to go to protect it. This clearly is a threat of invasion under some attack on radio Gleiwitz reasoning. Today leaked tape recordings of two tapes of a conference (in Turkish, UPDATE: English transcript of first part) between Davutoglu, the chief of the Turkish intelligence MIT Hakan Fidan and others, seem to confirm that this is indeed the plot. According to a preliminary translations by Firat Gunay (for which I can not vouch):
- Fidan offers Davutoglu to send men into Syria to fire missiles on Turkey.
- After Davutoglu rejects that, Fidan offers to bomb the tomb of Süleyman Shah.
- Talk about the needs of the Jihadists which is more about ammunition than guns.
- Fidan states that they have delivered 2,000 truckloads of weapons to the insurgents.
- Davutoglu says Kerry had asked if the Turks would invade Syria and had pressed for it to do so.
- Davutoglu also says they have plans for a no-fly zone over Syria and have delivered such plans to NATO.
- Davutoglu assures Fidan that Erdogan has agreed to all the plans.
- Fidan says things do not go well for the insurgents and that Turkey has send a general to help them.
Shortly after the calls were leaked on Youtube Turkey blocked local Internet access to Youtube. It is now also available on Vimeo and elsewhere. The tape release, only the latest in a larger series, came after Turkish police raided a holding company related to the religious Gülen movement, an earlier ally of Erdogan which has become his fiercest enemy. A TV station related to Gülen was also taken down.
There are local elections on March 30 and Erdogan's AK Party may lose the mayor seats in Istanbul and/or Ankara. Erdogan seems to have not only his voice but also his mind. He is using a strategy of demonetization against everything – Twitter, Gülen, Israel, Syria, whatever – to play to his large base. This base though may no longer be big enough for electoral victories.
The Obama administration is also planting stories of new "worries" about Jihadists attacks on "western" interests from north or east Syria. Such an "attack" could easily be orchestrated and then used to "justify" "western" intervention and a renewed perspective of a no-fly zone over Syria.
The northern attack on Syria comes at a time where a long announced attack in the south fails to materialize. There have been sightings of new Chines anti-tank weapons in the south but there is no sign of a coordinated campaign. Indeed there are doubts that the announced Southern Front exists at all. The talk about it may have been a diversion for the attack in the north.
Turkey and the United States should be careful with their dreams of invading Syria. Two can play such games and there are Russian troops ready on the eastern Ukrainian border. A move in one place could result in a counter move elsewhere.
UPDATE: A link to the complete taped conference with English text. A link to the complete English text. (Again: I yet can not vouch for their correctness.)
Since I don’t speak Turkish, I am not sure what the second of the leaked phone calls mentioned by b is all about, but it could refer to this story.
PM Erdoğan plotted sex tape to topple opposition leader, audio leak reveals
A leaked voice recording purportedly of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan organizing the dissemination of video footage of former main opposition Republic People’s Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal’s adultery has provoked widespread criticism, including from Baykal, who made a statement on Wednesday calling on “Erdoğan and the state to provide an explanation” concerning the leaked audio. […]
The leak was uploaded onto YouTube under an account named “DLMHACK,” ostensibly belonging to a leftist group as the logo has a hammer and a sickle in place of the letter D of its name. The YouTube user claimed that they seized the recording from the email account of Erdoğan’s adviser Mustafa Varank, hinting that the recording was carried out by the prime minister’s own associate in the first place.
In the recording, which seems to be a collage of different speeches, the voice attributed to Erdoğan instructs his men to capture Baykal in flagrante delicto and spread the footage through the media and Internet.
“Unfortunately, there are very indecent and immoral things. There has to be an intervention here. The CHP has gone completely off the rails,” Erdoğan is allegedly heard telling the people in the room.
“We have such things in our hands, a document to be published. If I give it to you, how would you do it? … Are you passing them to websites?” says the voice, and after a pause, possibly a point at which parts of the original recording were edited out, he goes on: “All right, let’s do it like this, then. Let me first save it to a hard disk. But the recording is very bad. Can’t he [Baykal] say they are fake and this and that?” […]
Looks like Erdogan is going all in. If these tapes are indeed all genuine, he is burning some important bridges in the process, retreat from his position will be almost impossible. The number of enemies he has to watch out for and include in his calculations is increasing every day, with every new leak. And its not groups like the Turkish breastfeeding association, but forces capable of arranging for his funeral to be held.
He has fired thousands of police officers, judges and other government officials, had protesters dying and is shutting down social media, waging war against the Kurds and the Syrian people, battling Gulen and his followers – the deadly arrow could come from any direction. His bodyguards and secret service must be working overtime.
The continued surfacing of damaging leaks is a massive problem for him. He can’t trust no one and has to watch every word he says, even in private. Not easy organizing a political strategy under such circumstances, nor an election campaign for that matter.
Its not just Erdogan who has that problem, as the highly embarrassing examples in the US/EU Ukraine coup have shown, almost everybody in government or diplomatic circles should now expect their emails and phone calls to be on record and potentially being made public.
So in times like these, he needs some friends with influence. And who better to have in your camp than the country which 3 years ago killed nine Turkish nationals trying to deliver aid to their brothers in Gaza.
Considering Turkey and USsrael’s joined operation against Syria for the past three years, this surely is merely a formality:
Report: Turkey and Israel to reopen embassies
By JPOST.COM STAFF, HERB KEINON
03/27/2014 13:07
Alleged move to normalize relations comes days before critical elections in Turkey; Jerusalem denies report.
The Israeli and Turkish embassies in both nations will reopen, according to a report in the Turkish newspaper Today’s Zaman on Thursday.
The report followed a meeting between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s personal representative on energy and security issues, David Meidan, and Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) chief, Hakan Fidan, in Ankara earlier this week, during which the move to normalize relations was allegedly discussed. […]
One of the major issues Erdogan is struggling with in the upcoming election is the economy. He and the AKP still have substantial support amongst the conservative population, the elections on Sunday will give a pretty good indication for where the mood is at and loyalties lie.
But should the economic trends keep pointing down and his supporter base increasingly notice the negative effects on their bank balances the political instability Erdogan’s bone headed policies are causing, then he is bound to lose crucial votes. Keeping the economic ship from keeling over until after the August presidential elections is paramount for his fate at the polls.
And its not looking too good. The Turkish lira has fallen by 30% in the past three years (although in recent months has slightly recovered from its low point), which means their imports get more expensive and export products cheaper. You’d think this effect would lead to a reduction in their current account deficit, but it isn’t, quite the opposite.
[…] Turkey’s current-account deficit more than doubled to $8.3 billion in December from a month earlier, taking last year’s tally to $65 billion, equivalent to about 7.9 percent of GDP, based on government estimates of the size of the economy. The ratio was 6.1 percent in 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Its third-quarter reading of 7.2 percent compares with a 9 percent deficit in Ukraine, a 6.4 percent gap in South Africa and 3.6 percent in Brazil, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China has a surplus of 2 percent while Russia’s is 1.8 percent. […]
Inflation at 8%, unemployment on the rise again from 7.8% two years ago to 9.1% expected by mid 2014, pretty cloudy in Erdoland.
Posted by: Juan Moment | Mar 27 2014 18:30 utc | 27
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