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U.S. EU United To Overthrow Democracy In Ukraine
The flap about the "Fuck the EU" uttering of the U.S. assistant secretary of state Nuland is somewhat disguising the real issue.
The unencrypted cell phone call between Nuland and the U.S. ambassador in Kiev (transcript) was likely recorded by the Ukraine's security services. While the State department tried (as usual these days) to blame the Russians, the tweet of a Russian official that pointed to the call recording came a full day after someone else had tweeted the link to it. The Russian official was thereby not the original source.
The caught call reveals several issues:
1. The U.S. is undeniably trying to overthrow the democratically elected government and the elected president of Ukraine and wants to put one of its opposition puppets into the top job. Nuland herself claims (vid at 7:26) that the U.S. has since the 1990s "invested" over $5 billion for such "democratization" of Ukraine. It is likely that the U.S., as the Ukraine government claims, is paying many of the protesters in Kiev.
2. Some countries in the EU (Germany, Poland and the Baltic countries) also want to overthrow the Ukrainian government but they (especially Merkel) want another puppet, price boxer Klitschko, to become the top dog. But as the rest of the EU is not willing to pay up for buying the Ukraine government for the meager plundering of the already very poor country those EU countries that want a coup have little they can offer and no real way of threatening sanctions or other illegal means.
The "fuck the EU" remark is only about the difference in style. The U.S. wants fast sanction against the legal government and the people of Ukraine and to install its own puppet while the EU wants a different puppet and a less noisy kind of coup.
The dragging behind the scenes is also disguising another important issue. The protest in the Ukraine are led by extreme right wing movements which will not shy away from brutalities or even civil war:
[T]he physical organization of these protests, the building of barricades around squares, much of the camp construction and policing, and the pitched and sometimes deadly battles with police are almost entirely the work of the extreme right. In some of Ukraine’s smaller cities, the local protests and seizures of government buildings appear to have been entirely the work of Pravy Sektor.
…
Here in Kiev, some members of the ragtag army of pipe-wielding, helmeted marshals and guards say they are supporters of the more mainstream right-wing Ukrainian-nationalist Svoboda (Freedom) party, which won about 10 per cent of the vote in 2012 parliamentary elections and whose leader, Oleh Tyahnybok, has a history of using anti-Semitic insults.
But the people in the largest and most aggressive group, who generally refuse to speak to journalists, are members of Pravy Sektor, an umbrella group of fascist, nationalist, football-hooligan and right-wing extremist gangs – some with neo-Nazi histories – which is generally considered to the right of Svoboda and which tends to be very secretive. It has not, to this point, been a political party.
The U.S. as well as the EU seem to believe that they can keep these forces under control (do they pay them?). But just like the Jihadists in Syria are hardly controllable the fascist in Ukraine will certainly play their own game as soon as the U.S. EU pressure against the legal government gives them a chance to go for it. They even openly threaten to ignite a civil war.
By pushing for the resignation of the elected president of Ukraine the U.S. and the EU are clearly risking, for their own selfish reasons, to throw Ukraine into an internal conflict they would be unable to control.
The media uproar about the "fuck the EU" part is just hiding those lunatic aspects of these plans.
First: Good points, b.
so Ukraine has 3 choices
1)Klitschko (EU choice/perhaps Ukrainian peoples choice)
2)Yanukovich (Russias choice /also perhaps Ukrainian peoples choice)
3)Yatsenyuk technocrat party (is crook)
( US choice / and nobody else )
While at first glance it might look like that I don’t think that’s true. Actually I guess it’ll end up quite differently.
But first let’s have a necessary look at the context and some factors.
Politics is rarely surprising (well, maybe for the un- or wrongly informed people). Actually almost everything has a long pretext which themselves sometimes create telltale signs.
Also politics is rarely black and white, sharp-edged; usually it’s more like negotiating and dealing, nobody getting all but both getting something. In this regards the “american century” (of about 30-60 years, depending on ones counting) actually was a – quite possibly planned and designed – exception due to zusas blunt military based aggressive style (“Get 10 mio$ or get a bullet to your head”) working strongly in it’Äs favour. This phase, however, is quite evidently passee with a strong Russia and China.
Obviously zusas attack on Ukraine was precisely timed to fall in Russias weakest period short before the Olympic games (when Russia was basically forced to look friendly) both by zusa and zeu. zeu wanted to bluntly push through Ukraines zeu association during that time period and in the most anti-Russian version feasible. zusa again basically piggy backed on that undertaking introducing both the zamerican way (aggression) and a shift towards the zamerican candidate.
Which actually underlines what I said earlier about zusa having lost it’s superpower position since long. Just 10 years ago zusa would have been strong enough to not care about an opportune time; they’d just gone it like a tank. Nowadays, however, zusa must include a lot of factors, one of the most important ones being that they can risk to confront the Russian only at select points in time of weak moments of Russia. Even worse, they are (among others financially) so much down that they must, what a shame, leveredge zeus force and bend that a little rather than simply going it all alone.
The other IMO interesting hint is that the Krim parliament is beginning to quite openly demand Russian guarantees of protection.
Actually, this is the only, or at least the very, very strongly preferred, was for Russia to enter a confrontation, in particular when it is loaded with military potential.
Last but not least, the “fuck” leak was a brilliant move by Russia to not only hamper zusas Ukraine progress but to actually break the whole strategy and playing out some new cards for Yanukovich. Among other goodies Y. can buy quite some time now (with all the confusion, the risk of many Ukrainians who legitimately demonstrated but will definitely not support traiting their country, zusa and zeu rearranging relations bot in front and behind the curtain, i.e. towards the people and in between the politicians, etc.).
Both zusas and zeus major interest is in splitting Russia and Ukraine and in weakening and preying on an important partner of Russia. The country itself is rather uninteresting, somewhat less so for eu, who, however, simply can’t afford such a financially and economically broken new partner-country.
Which all together hints at the outcome I consider the most probable one.
I think that things will for some time get somewhat quieter in Ukraine. Both, Yanukovich and the “opposition” must rearrange – and re-assess! – their “troups”, assets, and positions. Which is just perfect for Russia and its Olympic games.
During the next weeks there will be increasing movements, demonstrations and demands of the pro-Russia part of Ukraine (basically the east and the south incl. Krim) which just happens to be the economic core of Ukraine, for more influence, possibly separation and protection from Russia. (It will of course, have many middle tones but that’s what it will come down to).
Be it formally (splitting in two countries) or be it otherwise, Ukraine will de facto be split and the pro-Russia part will demand – and get – Russian military support, most probably (and if any possible) without fighting but in the form of (temp) mil. bases, mil. cooperation, etc.
And the west, be that zeu or zusa or whoever, will get the halfway dead and worn out – ad not any more trustworthy for Russia – western part of Ukraine. Chances are that sooner or later the western part will beg to join Russia, too.
This way, zusa and zeu will get at least a (small) part of what they wanted and so will Russia, albeit a much larger, healthier and attractive – and strategically important – part.
Can and will zusa risk a war over Ukraine? No way. They can’t afford that both financially and militarily. And they need not. Their politicians can – and will – seel whatever little they get out of it as success.
What will zeu do? Quite probably they’ll take a deep breath in gratitude that they got out of their stupid adventure relatively cheaply. Can they risk a war or even just a big mouth? No way. After all the dirty things they tried to pull of in Ukraine they must be more than happy if Russia doesn’t advance right into europe. Militarilly zeu is an insignificant nobody. And financially they are in deep trouble as everyone knows.
Ceterum censeo israel americanamque delenda esse.
Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Feb 8 2014 22:27 utc | 11
Ozawa (30)
Are you assuming that ZATO’s goals aren’t to simply blow the Ukraine up? If that’s the goal, all that is needed is to keep funding radicals.
Basically yes. But then, looking closer, it’s more complex.
One issue, of course, is what Hoarsewhisperer intelligently mentioned; it’s a test, too, a test also to find out (and cheaply) how far zusa can go with the Russians.
But also zeu plays a major role. On one hand, of course, zusa can – and does, to a degree, say “fucke them”. On the other hand, though, zeu is somewhat troublesome with their euro but at the same time still accepting and even somewhat supporting the dollar as “world currency” and accepting the strictly zusa-led zato as the leading mil. alliance (and not having sth. like a zeu military), zusa needs zeu very much and can not really afford to seriously piss them off. Also, one should not forget that zeu is the only major agglomerate/”association of countries” in the world that stays quite loyal to zusa; even worse (for zusa) zeu isn’t far from double the citizens of zusa and bringing/keeping the “western block”, read, zusa and their satellites, colonies and subservient “partners”, to at least the range of the magical 1 bln. people (currently about 850 mln) that is important when talking with future super powers like China and India. Europe being europe and having all that history, there are many other factors to consider, e.g. geostrategic ones but in summary the situation is that zusa might want to see Ukraine as “destroy it and be done” but they can’t. But, of course, that’s their primary interest there.
One other point rarely mentioned and well worth mentioning is this:
While it might superficially look like zusa is all about testing, provoking and harming Russia, there is also much – well founded – fear in the game, albeit rarely seen.
Actually it stems from the cold war (or even beyond) and it goes like this:
If Russia, among other reasons in order to gain access to ice free sea routes and in particular directly to the mediterranean sea, ever attacked Europe there
a) wouldn’t be that much zusa could do being far away and having quite limited resources on the ground.
b) would be exorbitant costs and ugly logistics involved to keep their troups in europe going while Russia would fight in their near abroad.
c) would be the very much feared danger of Russia occupying Germany (actually, they might be welcome by many) Austria and Italy.
Such Russia would, and could relatively easily, divide Europe in half, basically almost automatically winning eastern Europe, too, having win access to the North Sea/Atlantic and med. sea, such creating excellent defense as well as positions for further attacks (e.g. zuk).
All in all this is THE nightmare for zusa and all their actions in Europe and against Russia have this in mind, too.
The fact that Russia gets stronger and stronger while zusa gets weaker and weaker doesn’t help neither.
Russia, on the other side, is not at all interested in territorial gains. What little it desires can be gained by peaceful cooperation, too. The problem for Russia was that they stupidly ignored rule #1 when dealing with zusa: do not trust them. zamericans are spine- culture- and honourless scum and will realiably break any contract they sign. Which zusa, of course did. And which brought Russia who basically was in a peaceful detente and build-up mode an ugly surprise; they had to quite suddenly and quickly rebuild their military way sooner and quicker than they had planned to.
My personal mid-term guess is that Russia, while not searching territorial gains, will conquer, albeit more economically and politically than militarily, major parts of europe, in particular germany which is kind of a perfect partner and also the economic and industrial core or Europe.
Simply because Russia can’t – and won’t – allow or accept the zusa thugs to continue terrorizing and harming them. Of course, memories of all the unspeakable horrors zusa created in Russia and in the world will fuel Russias readiness to kill the zamerican thugs once and for all.
One more reason to love Putin and to pray for him.
Ceterum censeo israel americanamque delenda esse.
Posted by: Mr. Pragma | Feb 9 2014 21:37 utc | 49
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