We do not yet know the whole story behind this but it seems that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon suddenly grew a pair and that the U.S. is now trying to again cut them off.
Ban Ki-Moon invited, seemingly against U.S. will, Iran to the Geneva II talks about Syria.
I have decided to issue some additional invitations to the one-day gathering in Montreux. They are: Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Greece, the Holy See, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea, and Iran. I believe the expanded international presence on that day will be an important and useful show of solidarity in advance of the hard work that the Syrian Government and opposition delegations will begin two days later in Geneva.
As I have said repeatedly, I believe strongly that Iran needs to be part of the solution to the Syrian crisis.
I have spoken at length in recent days with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr. Javad Zarif. He has assured me that, like all the other countries invited to the opening day discussions in Montreux, Iran understands that the basis of the talks is the full implementation of the 30 June 2012 Geneva Communique, including the Action Plan.
Foreign Minister Zarif and I agree that the goal of the negotiations is to establish, by mutual consent, a transitional governing body with full executive powers. It was on that basis that Foreign Minister Zarif pledged that Iran would play a positive and constructive role in Montreux.
Therefore, as convenor and host of the conference, I have decided to issue an invitation to Iran to participate.
There is little one could say against Iran taking part in the conference. If even Mexico and Luxemburg are invited (what for?) Iran, much more involved in the conflict, surely deserves a place at the table. This is even necessary as any agreement coming out of Geneva II does need Iran's acceptance as it would otherwise likely attempt to sabotage it.
But the U.S. State Department would rather blow up the conference in which it has little to win and set conditions that Ban Ki-Moon with his careful words had tried to push aside:
The United States views the UN Secretary General’s invitation to Iran to attend the upcoming Geneva conference as conditioned on Iran’s explicit and public support for the full implementation of the Geneva communique including the establishment of a transitional governing body by mutual consent with full executive authorities. This is something Iran has never done publicly and something we have long made clear is required.
The Iranian foreign ministry replied: As Iran has not taken part in the Geneva I conference it can not be held to or be expected to accept all its results.
Under heavy U.S. pressure the foreign sponsored exile opposition to Syria's government had agreed, with less than half of its membership voting yes, to come to Geneva. It now found a reason to draw back and set an ultimatum for Ban Ki-Moon to withdraw the invitation to Iran or the opposition would withdraw. Ban Ki-Moon is too exposed. He can not let a bunch of nobodies dictate UN policy. He will ignore them. It is up to the U.S. to get the opposition to Geneva.
While the Syrian government has long agreed to come to Geneva President Assad, in an interview published today, made clear that he will not step down or let the foreign sponsored hotel opposition take over the country:
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad said there is a "significant" chance he will seek a new term and ruled out sharing power with the opposition seeking his ouster, in an exclusive interview with AFP before the Geneva II peace talks.
Speaking on Sunday at his presidential palace in Damascus, Assad said he expected Syria's war to grind on.
And he called for the talks scheduled to begin on Wednesday in Montreux in Switzerland to focus on what he termed his "war against terrorism".
Focusing on terrorism is by now also the objective of the "western" governments which tried to ouster Assad. Syria is training ground for their own misfits who will eventually come home and make trouble. Even the U.S. needs Assad to stay. Two car bombs exploded today at a Turkish Syrian border post, the last official one not directly controlled by al-Qaeda affiliate ISIS. They remind the Turks that they also have a huge problem. Another exposure of the weapons smuggling by Turkish intelligence officials to Jihadists increases pressure on Erdogan to look for a faster way out the situation. So everyone, except maybe Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is now looking for a way to keep Assad in, at least for a while, and to throw the terrorists out of Syria.
But the U.S. blowing up the Geneva conference over Iran's participation will make it harder for outsiders to influence that.
The recent infighting between the various extremists group on the ground in Syria has allowed the Syrian government to make significant progress on the ground in Damascus governate as well as around Aleppo. If Geneva II does not take place or fails the one loosing the least will likely be the Syrian government.