Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 6, 2014
Syria: Jabhat al-Nusra, Not The FSA, Fighting With ISIS

The infighting between several foreign sponsored jihadist insurgency groups in northern and eastern Syria is sold by some as a fight of the “moderate” Free Syrian Army against the al-Qaeda affiliate ISIS. But this does not seem to be the reality. While there is some showing of the FSA flag over conquered ISIS territory this is likely just a fake to hide the real group behind the fighting, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhad al Nusra and a new, probably fictitious, Army of the Mujahideen.

A similar fake was reported from southern Syria where Jabhat al-Nusra successes get sold to “western” supporters as sole FSA operations:

“The FSA and Al Nusra join together for operations but they have an agreement to let the FSA lead for public reasons, because they don’t want to frighten Jordan or the West,” said an activist who works with opposition groups in Deraa.

“Operations that were really carried out by Al Nusra are publicly presented by the FSA as their own,” he said.

A leading FSA commander involved in operations in Deraa said Al Nusra had strengthened FSA units and played a decisive role in key rebel victories in the south.

“The face of Al Nusra cannot be to the front. It must be behind the FSA, for the sake of Jordan and the international community,” he said.

Whether this infighting between the two al-Qaeda affiliates Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS is about, money or other issues, is not yet clear. ISIS seems not be putting up a real fight but is mostly just retreating when challenged. Something is fishy in this. Whatever it may be it is for now good news for the Syrian government. It may even open a chance to kick those fake “revolutionaries” out of Aleppo.

Comments

100) Somebody, no. One could go around criticizing A thru Z as bad, and wanting. Question is do you have time for all that?
The leader of the Islamic revolution, aka the supreme leader, according to the constitution must be a Shiite cleric.
I’m not being factious when I remind you that also the pope must be a Catholic. Iran is a Shiite country ruled by Shiites for Shiites, and apparently most Iranians living in Iran are OK with that.

Posted by: BiBiJon | Jan 8 2014 16:38 utc | 101

If you tried to impose Catholic-approved law on Italy, you would be foolhardy indeed, and I think your life expectancy would be limited.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 8 2014 17:43 utc | 102

Pope rules the Vatican.

Posted by: BiBiJon | Jan 8 2014 18:35 utc | 103

Well then, let the Ayatollahs rule Qom, and let the rest of Iran go its own merry way. That would be analogous. But I don’t deny that the Italians needed quite a messy series of civil wars and revolutions to get to where they are now. I don’t doubt most of them would like to abolish the state within a state which is the Vatican. There is of course an aspect of social class to this. The Vatican is an asset to the landowning aristocracies and haute bourgeoisies of not a few countries around the world, since Catholicism, like all established religions, sanctifies private property.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 8 2014 18:57 utc | 104

So Westerners would go fight djihad in Syria because they are attracted by a 2000 dollars salary, no matter what they risk if they don’t go to friday prayer?
http://youtu.be/GiHP9miJoNA

Posted by: Mina | Jan 8 2014 19:25 utc | 105

103) :-)9 which is not really a country.

Iran is a Shiite country ruled by Shiites for Shiites, and apparently most Iranians living in Iran are OK with that.

We do not know that, do we?

Posted by: somebody | Jan 8 2014 19:40 utc | 106

@Rowan 104
That’s an issue for the Iranians. And as I said before their majority accept the legitimacy of the Iranian political system. They also think, unlike most westerners, that their system can be reformed if needed.

Posted by: ATH | Jan 8 2014 20:09 utc | 107

@somebody
We know that the only way it can be known in modern politics: There has been more than 32 elections at the national level in Iran during the last 35 years and they have all been deemed fair and equitable. You might not like the Shia religious hierarchy but they look like the most reasonable people in the area, and beyond, right now.

Posted by: ATH | Jan 8 2014 20:11 utc | 108

104) Rowan,
If the discussion is about legitimacy of a political order, then, while I understand why you might need to “impose” certain western social/philosophical/historical concepts/criteria on the trajectory of the 1979 revolution, ultimately those alien concepts may distort the reality which should be viewed in its own terms.
Take a look at pictures/footage of Ay. Khomeini’s arrival in Tehran being greeted by throngs of people; a welcome unprecedented in size, and intensity of emotion anywhere on the planet; and then tell me you could constrain such authority to the walls of Qum.
The centrality of Passion of Christ may have become obscure in Christendom. That does not appear to be the case with the Passion of Hussein with Shiites of Iran.
“Ruled by Shiites for the Shiites,” as simple a construct as it is, is closer to the core of what obtains in Iran, which has operated for 34 years irrespective of how much/little western intellectuals respect it, or even want to understand it. That ‘passion’ can engender immense capacity for sacrifices for peace, as it is an endless supply of grist for the mill of battle.
Not because this reality is appealing to a western mindset, but because it is likely to be enduring, I suggest a little less self-reference might help peaceful coexistence.

Posted by: BiBiJon | Jan 8 2014 20:41 utc | 109

Who is suddenly and successfully fighting ISIS in Syria?
Eye-opener (though most people are already well informed):
http://radioyaran.com/2014/01/08/who-is-suddenly-and-successfully-fighting-isis-in-syria/

Posted by: KerKaraje | Jan 8 2014 20:58 utc | 110

108) I think you are rewriting history. A referendum for an Islamic Republic where 98% of votes are yes would be deemed fake not just by any political scientist but by any person with common sense.
For some strange reason after that unanimous referendum a lot of Iranians somehow got killed.
109) Actually, Khomeini’s theocracy is not necessarily the majority opinion of the Shiite clergy.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 8 2014 22:23 utc | 111

There is no common sense reason (nor any reason) to think the Iran 1979 referendum result was fake or fraudulent.

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 8 2014 23:02 utc | 112

@ KerKaraje #110: I think the article that you linked to is mainly arguing against a “straw man” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man ) and apart from that it doesn’t deliver a clear answer for what’s actually going on. It seems to be that ISIS has gotten some resentment and pushback in some places (only some) and ISIS has accepted this by backing down. ISIS does not want to exacerbate divisions within the rebels. The other main rebel groups do not want to exacerbate divisions either, and they’ve made statements in the past few days re-affirming the nobility and virtuousness of the foreign-born rebel fighters (ISIS is mostly foreigners). So I expect this tempest will soon pass.
KerKaraje, do you have anything to say yourself about Syria nowadays that you think is under-appreciated or under-reported and significant?

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 8 2014 23:37 utc | 113

“Because z lives in a country with flaws he/she should shut up about other countries and bring their house in order first?”
YES.
Holy shit, the silence in the US would be deafening.

Posted by: guest77 | Jan 9 2014 1:26 utc | 114

@somebody
you don’t KNOW what you are talking about. Even the ultra-bourgeois went voting for the referendum on the constitution. Your hatred of the religious hierarchy in Iran is making you a bedfellow with the kind of McCane.

Posted by: ATH | Jan 9 2014 3:19 utc | 115

~109: It’s a waste of time trying to impose your inverted cultural snobbery on me, BibiJon. Despite the perpetual sniping of the one called bevin, I continue to regard myself as a marxist, not some sort of western ethnocrat, and if you now proceed to tell me that marxism itself is just another form of western cultural imperialism, you will only succeed in making yourself look silly. I’ve heard it all before.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 9 2014 3:23 utc | 116

Ex-#ISIS detainees tell horror stories of captivity http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jan-09/243522-ex-isis-detainees-tell-horror-stories-of-captivity.ashx#axzz2pmJLaymq
“We’d pray 4 planes 2 hit us, 2 release us from this torture”

Posted by: brian | Jan 9 2014 3:49 utc | 117

Syricide ‏@Syricide 3h
Am I the only one that sees the fatuous, ironic, conflicting, construct of this protest? ..
#Syria #LetsShowMoreRage pic.twitter.com/4IK2FfJwz2
its more of the NO to FSA NO to Assad….and is a clear fraud of the colour revolution variety

Posted by: brian | Jan 9 2014 3:57 utc | 118

115) Not really. The Reagan administration tried to assassinate this enlightened Shiite cleric by a terrorist attack killing more than 80 civilians in the process. He did not agree with the Iranian political system.
You have to wonder about the choice of targets.
98% results are a give-away. You do not get that in any election.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 9 2014 6:30 utc | 119

add to 119) Iraqi Shiite clerics also disagree

Posted by: somebody | Jan 9 2014 6:40 utc | 120

@somebody | 119
I usually skip your posts because of obvious… affiliation (so whats new on zionists agenda these days?), but noticed this little gem:
“98% results are a give-away. You do not get that in any election.”
Yep, and when in US they voted 100% for Washington it was fake all the way, right? :)) Funny how it works, if its done in US or by its alies (plenty of similar results throughout the history), then its legit, but God forbid Iranians do it, then its automatically fake, without providing any evidence.

Posted by: Harry | Jan 9 2014 15:27 utc | 121

120 :-))
from Wikipedia

Incumbent President George Washington was re-elected to a second term by a unanimous vote in the electoral college As in the first presidential election, Washington is considered to have run unopposed….

Only 13,332 popular votes were cast for presidential electors, a record low turnout for a United States presidential election…

However, the Democratic-Republicans and the Federalists contested the vice-presidency, with incumbent John Adams as the Federalist nominee and George Clinton as the Democratic-Republican nominee. With some Democratic-Republican electors voting against their nominee George Clinton – voting instead for Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr – Adams easily secured re-election.

So John Adams only got 77 of 132 votes …
To sum it up – it was a vote by electoral college i.e. nobody would chose to abstain and there was no other candidate to vote for. A lot of people had abstained in the popular vote for whatever reason …
The Iranian constitution states …

Article 1 states that the form of Government in Iran is that of an Islamic Republic. It explains this form is due to the referendum passed by 98% of the eligible voters of Iran and gives credit to Imam Khomeini for the victorious revolution.

This here is a German take of the referendum – by the German embassy

„Am 1.4. mittags, einen Tag nach dem Referendum und noch bevor die Stimmen vollzählig ausgezählt waren, hat Khomeini von seiner Residenz in Qom aus die ‘Islamische Republik’ ausgerufen. Das Innenministerium gibt heute als vorläufiges Wahlergebnis bekannt: Wahlberechtigte 18 Mio., Wahlbeteiligung 98 Prozent, davon Ja-Stimmen 97 Proz. Alle drei Zahlen sind mit Sicherheit falsch.“

translation – Khomeini declared the Islamic Republic from his residence in Quom before votes had been completely counted and announced the preliminary results, 18 million people with the right to vote, participation of 98 percent, of those yes vote 97 percent. All three numbers are sure to be wrong.
I repeat: No political scientist would find the quoted numbers of the Iranian referendum credible, no common sense person either.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 9 2014 16:53 utc | 122

@somebody / 121
Again, regardless what you may think, its not uncommon for highly unifying polls to reach 90-100%, like just in 2011 Southern Sudan had UN supervised independence vote, and they also had ~99% voting “yes”, Iran is no exception there. Look it up, it happens more often than you admit, and its definitely not always fake. But then again due to your absolute prejudice, nothing will convince you otherwise, so why bother?

Posted by: Harry | Jan 9 2014 18:00 utc | 123

P.S. Also its not wise to quote German politicians about Iran’s voting, they were enemies. Germany fully supported war against Iran, and also were supplying chemical weapons of mass destruction to use against Iranians. You might as well pick Nazis opinions against soviets or jews, should have been very reliable source 🙂

Posted by: Harry | Jan 9 2014 18:05 utc | 124

124 :-)) you missed – German chancellor was Helmut Schmidt in 1979. Definitively no war monger.
This is a Helmut Schmidt quote from 2006

Teherans Pläne sind keine Bedrohung”
Interview: Ex-Kanzler Helmut Schmidt mahnt im Atomstreit zu besonnener Politik. Die weltweite Anzahl der Nuklearmächte wird in den nächsten Jahren zunehmen, sagt Schmidt. Der Westen müsse das leider hinnehmen

translation – Tehran’s plans are no threat, Helmut Schmidt says. The number of nuclear powers world wide will grow within the next few years, unfortunately the West will have to live with it.
123) South Sudan independence vote – you are joking – right?

On 7 February 2011, the referendum commission published the final results, with 98.83% voting in favour of independence.[5] While the ballots were suspended in 10 of the 79 counties for exceeding 100% of the voter turnout, the number of votes were still well over the requirement of 60% turnout, and the majority vote for secession is not in question.

So 10 of 79 counties were to stupid to handle it but the rest is ok, because not too obviously fake :-))
And then there is this news a few years later – Was South Sudan a mistake?

With the world’s newest country on the brink of collapse, the wisdom of separating north and south Sudan is in question

What did you just say?

its not uncommon for highly unifying polls to reach 90-100%

Come on, you need some better example to bolster your argument.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 9 2014 18:37 utc | 125

@somebody | 125
“German chancellor was Helmut Schmidt in 1979. Definitively no war monger.”
Germany was in undeclared war against Iran back then (including mass crimes against humanity, and Iranians in particular), and all you can say “but Schmidt was no war monger”? 🙂
“So 10 of 79 counties were to stupid to handle it but the rest is ok, because not too obviously fake :-))”
Every single voting has some infractions, should we reject them all then? Surely Sudanians were overeager to vote for independence, and those counties with double votes or whatever were excluded.
So as long as UN, EU and other observers signed on their voting legitimacy, your opinion means nothing compared to this. Plus other Western independent pre-vote polls confirmed 90-100% Sudanians will vote for independence.
You may reject all the votes you dont like, thats your personal problem, I quoted UN approved 99% voting example and you may cry in the corner or whatever you zionists like to do. I’m done here, and unless you come up with actual evidence on the contrary, again – your personal opinion means nothing, and opinion by the enemies of countries mentioned, also means very little.

Posted by: Harry | Jan 9 2014 18:59 utc | 126

I repeat, I cannot think of a common sense reason to believe the Iran 1979 referendum result was fraudulent. At the time, 1979, there was pro-revolutionary and pro-Khomeini fervour throughout Iran. The great masses of people wanted the change. Among the minority who saw a downside to rule by ayatollahs, most were nevertheless inclined, in year 1979, to give the upcoming new regime some slack, some benefit of doubt. The Communist Party in Iran, which was very secularist, endorsed a YES vote for an Islamic State in the 1979 referendum. The Communist Party was illegal under the Shah’s regime and in 1979 the Communist Party had the earnest but mistaken view that a Khomeini regime would be more liberal. The ayatollah’s party began to suppress the Communist Party in 1982 (or 1981), but was cordial toward the Communists in 1979. It was crystal clear in 1979 before the referendum occurred that the referendum was going to pass by a very large majority. It’s hard to credit that the turnout number was as high as reported, but there was no common sense motive for tyring to make the number a fraud, and there was no common sense way to subvert the supervision of the vote, and there was no respectble actual evidence to my knowledge that the true turnout was lower than reported. In year 2009 in real time I saw bogus and fraudulent allegations of vote-counting fraud in the 2009 elections in Iran. There was a motive for losing dissidents to say the vote-counting was a fraud and it was easy for them to make allegations without actual evidence. In contrast to the ease with which any flakey dissident can make allegations of fraud without decent evidence, it is actually difficult to corrupt vote-counting at thousands of separately supervised vote-counting locations nationwide and it is actually difficult to publish an overall nationwide result that is not backed up by the results at the localities.

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 9 2014 19:09 utc | 127

126)

Germany was in undeclared war against Iran back then (including mass crimes against humanity, and Iranians in particular), and all you can say “but Schmidt was no war monger”?

I would not call it undeclared war, and Helmut Schmidt was definitively no war monger. But yes, West German firms were in the business of building Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons program, and the “international community” was completely useless, mainly supporting Iraq but sometimes both sides.
But how did that Iran-Iraq war come about? It was not an international plot.

Tensions between Iraq and Iran were fueled by Iran’s Islamic revolution and its appearance of being a Pan-Islamic force, in contrast to Iraq’s Arab nationalism. Despite Iraq’s goals of regaining the Shatt al-Arab,[note 1] the Iraqi government seemed to initially welcome Iran’s Revolution, which overthrew Iran’s Shah, who was seen as a common enemy.[45][51] It is difficult to pinpoint when tensions began to build, but there were some cross border skirmishes, including when Iraqi aircraft bombed an Iranian village that anti-Iraqi Kurds allegedly hid in on June 1979.[52]
After this incident, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini called on Iraqis to overthrow the Ba’ath government, and it was received with considerable anger in Baghdad.[45] On 17 July 1979, despite Khomeini’s call, Saddam gave a speech praising the Iranian Revolution and called for an Iraqi-Iranian friendship based on non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.[45] When Khomeini rejected Saddam’s overture by calling for Islamic revolution [37] in Iraq, Saddam was alarmed.[45] Iran’s new Islamic administration was regarded in Baghdad as an irrational, existential threat to the Ba’ath government, especially because the Ba’ath party, having a secular nature, discriminated and posed a threat to the Shia movement in Iraq, whose clerics were Iran’s allies within Iraq and whom Khomeini saw as oppressed.[45] Some scholars have argued that Iranian-backed attacks and cross-border raids on Iraqi territory compelled Iraq to launch a preemptive invasion.[53]
However, Iraq’s regime was very politically secure, and in little danger of being overthrown by alleged plots of revolution-wracked Iran.[37] According to some sources, Khomeini’s hostility towards Saddam was actually milder than his Arab neighbors hostility towards Saddam.[54] Saddam’s primary interest in war stemmed from his desire to right the supposed “wrong” of the Algiers Agreement, in addition to finally achieving his desire of annexing Khuzestan and becoming the regional superpower.[37] Saddam’s goal was to replace Egypt as the “leader of the Arab world” and to achieve hegemony over the Persian Gulf.[55] He saw Iran’s increased weakness due to revolution, sanctions, and international isolation.[47] Saddam had heavily invested in Iraq’s military since his defeat against Iran in 1975, buying large amounts of weaponry from the Soviet Union and France. By 1980, Iraq possessed 200,000 soldiers, 2,000 tanks and 450 aircraft.[51]:1 Watching the powerful Iranian army that frustrated him in 1974–1975 disintegrate, he saw an opportunity to attack, using the threat of Islamic Revolution as a pretext.[51][56]
A successful invasion of Iran would enlarge Iraq’s petroleum reserves and make Iraq the region’s dominant power. With Iran engulfed in chaos, an opportunity for Iraq to annex the oil-rich Khuzestan Province materialized.[50]:261 In addition, Khuzestan’s large ethnic Arab population would allow Saddam to pose as a liberator for Arabs from Persian rule.[50]:260 Fellow Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (despite being hostile to Iraq) encouraged Iraq to attack, as they feared that an Islamic revolution would take place within their own borders. Certain Iranian exiles also helped convince Saddam that if he invaded, the fledgling Islamic republic would quickly collapse.[37]
In 1979–80, Iraq was the beneficiary of an oil boom that saw it take in US$33 billion, which allowed Iraq’s government to go on a spending spree on both civilian and military projects.[45] On several occasions, Saddam alluded to the Islamic conquest of Iran in promoting his position against Iran. For example, on 2 April 1980, half a year before the war’s outbreak, in a visit to Baghdad’s ‪al-Mustansiriya University‬, he drew parallels to Persia’s defeat at the 7th century Battle of al-Qādisiyyah:
In your name, brothers, and on behalf of the Iraqis and Arabs everywhere we tell those Persian cowards and dwarfs who try to avenge al-Qadisiyah that the spirit of al-Qadisiyah as well as the blood and honor of the people of al-Qadisiyah who carried the message on their spearheads are greater than their attempts.[57]
[58][59]
In 1979–1980, anti-Ba’ath riots arose in the Iraq’s Shia areas by groups who were workings toward an Islamic revolution in their country.[45] Saddam and his deputies believed that the riots had been inspired by the Iranian Revolution and instigated by Iran’s government.[37] On 10 March 1980, when Iraq declared Iran’s ambassador persona non-grata, and demanded his withdrawal from Iraq by 15 March,[60] Iran replied by downgrading its diplomatic ties to the charge d’affaires level, and demanded that Iraq withdraw their ambassador from Iran. In April 1980, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr and his sister Amina Haydar (better known as Bint al-Huda) were hanged as part of a crackdown to restore Saddam’s control. The execution of Iraq’s most senior Ayatollah caused outrage throughout the Islamic world, especially among Shias.[45]
Iraq soon after expropriated the properties of 70,000 civilians believed to be of Iranian origin and expelled them from its territory.[54] Many, if not most, of those expelled were in fact Arabic-speaking Iraqi Shias who had little to no family ties with Iran.[61] This caused tensions between the two nations to increase further.[54]
Map of Baathist Iraq’s hegemonic, ideological and territorial ambitions. Saddam Hussein wanted Iraq to be the leader of the Arab World and the Persian Gulf
In April 1980, Shia militants assassinated 20 Ba’ath officials, and Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz was almost assassinated on 1 April;[45] Aziz survived, but 11 students were killed in the attack.[37] Three days later, the funeral procession being held to bury the students was bombed.[62] Iraqi Information Minister Latif Nusseif al-Jasim also barely survived assassination by Shia militants.[45] The Shias’ repeated calls for the overthrow of the Ba’ath party and the support they allegedly received from Iran’s new government led Saddam to increasingly perceive Iran as a threat that, if ignored, might one day overthrow him;[45] he thus used the attacks as pretext for attacking Iran later that September,[62] though skirmishes along the Iran–Iraq border had already become a daily event by May that year.[45]
Iraq also helped to instigate riots among Iranian Arabs in Khuzestan province,[51] supporting them in their labor disputes,[51] and turning uprisings into armed battles between Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and militants, killing over 100 on both sides.[clarification needed] At times, Iraq also supported armed rebellion by the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran in Kurdistan.[63][64] The most notable of such events was the Iranian Embassy siege in London, in which six armed Khuzestani Arab insurgents took the Iranian Embassy’s staff as hostages,[65][66] resulting in an armed siege that was finally ended by Britain’s Special Air Service.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 9 2014 20:24 utc | 128

Somebody;
Despite disagreeing with you on occasions, I respect both your honesty and your diligence in trying to search for the truth. So I hope you don’t mind my brief interjection here to perhaps clarify the issue regarding the 1979 referendum in Iran.
Quite understandably you are suspicious of the result of a referendum which has resulted in a 98-99% against 1-2%. However you have to realize certain things about the reality of Iran at the time:
1)At the time Mr. Khomeini was being revered by the vast majority of Iranians at the time. So much so that if he were to order people to commit mass suicide, Iran’s population would most likely have been decimated. I know it is hard to believe for a westerner, but that is the truth. You could see that in the demonstrations during the revolution which would bring the majority of Tehran’s population (in the order of a few million when Tehran was a city of ~5 million) Was everyone blindly following Mr. Khomeini’s lead? Definitely not. but first of all the vast majority did, secondly even those who did not necessarily follow his commands blindly did admire and respect him greatly. In the 1979 referendum the question was about a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the Islamic Republic, but in reality it was a question of “do you support the revolution or do you prefer the Shah’s regime?” Many people at the time objected to the question which was being asked in the referendum, a first name which comes to my mind is Mr. Bazargan who suggested to at least make it a referendum about the “Democratic Islamic Republic” but Mr. Khomeini said a simple: “‘Islamic Republic’ not a word less and not a word more” and that was the end of it. Everyone knew that to go against Mr. Khomeini would mean to alienate the vast majority of the Iranians because he was revered.
So in the end a lot of revolutionaries who did not necessarily want “Islamic Republic not a word more or less” went along because many were thinking that “Islamic Republic” (whatever that meant, because there was no definition of it given at the time) is by far better than the alternative: Shah!
You have to realize that Shah had gone only for a few months, and he had escaped the country before that too, only to return with a CIA orchestrated military coup. So everyone was wary of the possibility of another coup and his coming back.
To the mind of the more educated Iranians the most imminent danger was not Islamic fanaticism but rather the return of Shah.
If I remember it correctly, even the Kurdish separatists supported the revolution because they thought they had a much better chance of getting something from Mr. Khomeini than to get anything from a CIA puppet like Shah (at the time USA was very sensitive to any change in the established borders in the middle East, because they feared a further expansion of the USSR to the south).
So that 98% vs 2% was more about “Shah” or “Anything else” rather than “Islamic Republic, yes or no?”. Yes the vast majority devoutly believed in “Islamic Republic” (just because Mr. Khomeini had explicitly wanted it) but that majority was not exactly a 98%.
2) A mass fraud (and a massive fraud is what is needed to distort the results to the extent that you are thinking about) requires a unity of fraud organizers all around the country and a dominance over all election apparatus, a unity and a dominance which the religious fanatics did not have at the time. Iran was going through its most politically open period since 1953. If anyone tried to temper with votes on a massive scale it would have been discovered FOR SURE. You have to realize that the religious fundamentalists were not dominant in most of the post-revolutionary institutes at the time; and liberals, secular movements and even radical leftists were all over the institutes from Radio/TV to news papers and the bodies in charge of elections.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 9 2014 20:28 utc | 129

@ Pirouz_2 #129: You’re saying what I was trying to say at #127 but you’ve said it much better than I did.
@ Pirouz_2 #65: I’ll argue you’ve got a mistake in what you said at #65 and #53. Here again is what you said at #65:

“The main argument I am trying to make is that there is no substantial difference in the essence of the Western system and the Iranian one. The difference is not in the essence of the systems but rather in the fact that radical dissent in Iran is much more substantial (and by the way radical dissent does not necessarily mean progressive dissent) than it is in the West. If we see a much smaller proportion of Western intelligentsia being prosecuted, jailed, harassed, or murdered compared to Iran, that is NOT because the Western system is more civilized or that it is based on “freedom of dissent”, FAR from it. The reason for the difference is the fact that in countries such as Iran radical dissent has a much broader social basis and therefore poses a far greater threat to the stability of the system than it does in the West.”

I must restrict myself to the US and UK, and not include the whole of the West. That’s because, e.g., in Germany the Communist Party is banned, and in Germany and France it’s illegal to deny that the Nazis slaughtered Jews during World War II.
The USA and UK cultures have got deep toleration for radical dissent, provided the radical dissent is peaceful. In the USA especially there is really deep freedom of speech today. Whereas in Iran radical dissenters are not allowed to run for election to parliament. The US and UK have got various cultural oppressions — e.g. heroin lovers and amphetamine lovers are severely oppressed minorities. But it is legal for anyone to run for parliament advocating for the repeal of the anti-drug laws, or for any other political policy change you can think of. You know that. As I interpret what you say above, you’re saying that in the USA and the UK, in hypothetical case where a body of radical dissent became big enough and rivalrous enough to the Mainstream Ascendancy, then the Mainstream Ascendancy would outlaw it; you’re saying the mainstream ascendancy wouldn’t allow freedom of speech in a situation where it was having to contend with a strong challenge from a radical rival. I reply you’re mistaken, because the principle of freedom of speech is now too deeply established among the USA and UK people; I say the mainstream ascendancy would vigorously fight its rival at the Number One place where the mainstream ascendancy is gets its power from, free and fair democratic election contests. And if it lost in those contests, it would accept its defeat.
That’s substantially different from the situation in today’s Iran. The situation in Iran is comparable to the UK in the 18th century when Roman Catholics were not allowed to be candidates for election to parliament. As I see USA and UK political culture, the USA and UK are never going to return to anything like that ever again, for any kind of dissenters. By the way, as a different point, as I see Iranian culture, the Iranian liberals are analogous to the 18th century Catholics in that they don’t pose a real threat to the mainstream ascendancy in Iran.

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 9 2014 22:30 utc | 130

When I said “Iranian liberals” at #130 I meant to say more specifically “Iranian secularists”, I mean those who’d like to de-Islamize the institutions of State — and it is obvious they’re without a broad social basis, and hence they don’t pose a threat of winning power in parliament, and hence banning them is needless intolerance.
Here’s a quote from Grand Ayatollah Khamenei dated 21 March 2013:

Elections are the manifestation of political valor, the manifestation of the power of the Islamic Republic, the manifestation of the pride and credibility of the Islamic system…. Elections are the manifestation of our national willpower, the manifestation of Islamic democracy…. Islamic democracy as opposed to western liberal democracy. And the manifestation of Islamic democracy is the presence of the people in elections…. Most important is massive presence of the people in the elections…. All political orientations and currents that have faith in the Islamic Republic should take part in the elections. This is both a right and a responsibility that lies on the shoulders of everybody. Elections do not belong to a particular political orientation or a particular intellectual and political current. All those who believe in the Islamic Republic and in the independence of the country, all those who care about the future of the country, all those who care about our national interests should take part in the elections. Turning away from the elections is appropriate for those who are opposed to the Islamic Republic. http://english.khamenei.ir/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1760

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 9 2014 23:36 utc | 131

I think all of the above is nonsense, sociologically. To claim that the entire Iranian population is composed of religious zealots is just absurd. Religious politics is an unnatural distortion of popular political dynamics in any country. People do not turn to political processes in order to impose their own religious views on others unless they are indoctrinated into doing so, but if they are, they immediately find it easy to tap into the moralisms of the less-educated. There is also an easily manipulated resentment of the intelligentsia, which in any Asian country can be mobilised by saying that the intelligentsia are the suspected supporters either of western-imposed dictators or of Russian imperialism. But absent this force, people turn to political processes in order to address concrete issues directly, on what they would call a common-sense’ level, not to get entangled in moralisms of any sort. ‘Common-sense’ is often dismissed as herd thinking, but in this respect it means exactly what it says: don’t listen to ideologists, stick to the concrete issues, such as employment, taxes and services, housing, schools, transport to work, and local pollution. It is my personal regret that Marxism, instead of being presented as a ‘common-sense’ explanation of events, is presented as a bundle of sectarian hocus-pocus buttressed by incomprehensible mathematical formulae (this is why I concentrate on explaining the falling rate of profit in non-numerical terms, as far as possible in words of one syllable). But religious politics is in every case, precisely, a bundle of sectarian hocus-pocus, and unless they are intimidated by organised squads of bullies, people everywhere can and will recognise it as such and reject it if they have the choice.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 10 2014 3:24 utc | 132

129) I know. I am pretty sure within that framework they got a majority. Most people would not have read the constitution they were voting on but were trusting to do the right thing. And most importantly – Khomeinists had not yet started to eliminate rivals. They thought they were safe. There was no use in publicly doubting numbers when it was clear that Khomeini’s Islamic Republic had won.
Also, I hear, it was a public vote.
Just that close to hundred percent in participation and in yes is virtually impossible, though. People got stuff to do apart from politics. Women find it hard to leave the house. People feel ill, are old, you name the reason.
I find it interesting that Khomeini found it necessary to create that myth by a) exaggerating consent to this degree, b) put that number in the written constitution.
I conclude that he could not feel safe about the legitimacy of his system. Iranian theocracy always needed (and got) an external enemy to survive.
An US/Iranian official agreement might be the end of Iranian theocracy. Let’s see if it happens.
Though the Iranian “Islamic” revolution declared the US a political enemy that was not true in the context of the cold war. Covert US action in Afghanistan started in 1979.

Q: When the Soviets justified their intervention by asserting that they intended to fight against a secret involvement of the United States in Afghanistan, people didn’t believe them. However, there was a basis of truth. You don’t regret anything today?
Brzezinski: Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter: We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam war. Indeed, for almost 10 years, Moscow had to carry on a war unsupportable by the government, a conflict that brought about the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet empire.
Q: And neither do you regret having supported the Islamic [integrisme], having given arms and advice to future terrorists?
Brzezinski: What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?
Q: Some stirred-up Moslems? But it has been said and repeated: Islamic fundamentalism represents a world menace today.
Brzezinski: Nonsense! It is said that the West had a global policy in regard to Islam. That is stupid. There isn’t a global Islam. Look at Islam in a rational manner and without demagoguery or emotion. It is the leading religion of the world with 1.5 billion followers. But what is there in common among Saudi Arabian fundamentalism, moderate Morocco, Pakistan militarism, Egyptian pro-Western or Central Asian secularism? Nothing more than what unites the Christian countries.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 10 2014 7:42 utc | 133

There is another aspect of this history of doubtful alliances: The Shah refused to lower oil prices in the 1970’s and was undercut by Saudi Arabia, triggering economic crises in Iran and all countries the Shah had supported including Afghanistan.
Guess who is effectively lowering oil prices now.
No, I am not a monarchist.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 10 2014 12:11 utc | 134

    “Guess who is effectively lowering oil prices now.”

The US, by demanding that Iran do so in the first place.
Next Question!

Posted by: stfu | Jan 10 2014 12:50 utc | 135

Somebody;

“There was no use in publicly doubting numbers when it was clear that Khomeini’s Islamic Republic had won.
Also, I hear, it was a public vote.”

It was not only Khomeinists who had won, it was pretty much all opposition to Shah which had won.
Prior to any referrendum, each and every political party declares its position vis-a-vis the referendum: Either they promote a ‘yes’, a ‘no’ or a ‘boycott’.
In 1979, the only people who were in favour of ‘no/boycott’ were the monarchists, and I am not 100% sure about the Marxist left. Parts of the Marxist left may (or may not) have supported a ‘no’, but even Marxists did not favor a boycott (everyone knew perfectly well that cheating was out of question).
So the question should be was the sum of at most parts of the Marxist left and all of the monarchists not more than a meager 2%?
The answer is ‘No’.
Religious right plus MEK (YES MEK WAS IN FAVOR OF IR TOO!) plus liberal (both secular and religious) groups such as National Front, freedom movement, Mr. Forouhar’s party, etc etc. plus Kurdish separatist parties, plus every other political party except monarchists did account for 98% of the population.
Besides it was mostly people from freedom movement (the party of Mr. Bazargan which was supported by Ay. Taleghani as well) and national front who had the official posts. Mr. Bazargan was the prime minister, Karim sanjabi was his minister of foreign affairs and Ahmad Sadr Haj Seyyed Javadi was his minister of interior. Are these the guys who are supposed to have tempered with the votes?

“Just that close to hundred percent in participation and in yes is virtually impossible, though. People got stuff to do apart from politics. Women find it hard to leave the house. People feel ill, are old, you name the reason.”

No not really. Pretty much everyone from bakers and street cleaners/garbage collectors, to university students and intellectuals down to even primary school children were talking PASSIONATELY about politics. And it was the most politically open time in Iran from 1953 up to even present.
But I can understand that Westerners who have never lived through a popular revolution may have a hard time in imagining such a consensus.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 10 2014 23:07 utc | 136

In Iran, looking at the large voter turnout for presidential and parliamentary elections over the past decade or two decades, and looking at who the voters voted for, it is clear to me that an Islamic State has a huge political base and is politically secure in Iran. I cannot imagine a realistic way to change the minds of these real, proven masses of Iranians who support the Islamic State. Similary, in every country worldwide where a big majority of the masses of the population have made up their minds, and have adopted the same opinion about something, and have voted for political candidates with the same opinion, and have voted again and again, then there’s no realistic way to change their minds, when the issue is one that would be a matter of radical change and one that has already been a subject of widespread public discussion. Perhaps the Iranians in the long longterm might come to a mindset of moving away from an Islamic State — but that’d be longterm on the order of centuries, not decades. If Iran’s election laws were liberalized during the next few decades to allow secularists and other radical dissenters to compete for votes, the secularists and radical dissenters would all get trounced bigly by the Islamic State candidates. Similary, I am able to confidently predict that in whatever democratic country you know best, going out many many decades into the future, there’s going to be no way to change the minds of the electorate on radical proposals that were rejected bigly by the electorate during the past decades.

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 10 2014 23:15 utc | 137

136)
This group here boycotted the referendum
and if this is true

Matin-Daftari’s party was launched in early March 1979 at a meeting attended by around one million people.

the 98% of 20 million are fiction.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 10 2014 23:55 utc | 138

#138;
No not really. Matin-Dafteri was very closely associated with National Front. The vast majority of groups related to National Front campaigned for a ‘yes’. I would argue that most people among that ‘1 million’ would side by the opinion of the vast majority of the National Front, rather than Mr. Matin Daftari.
Incidentally, somebody, do you know any political character of 1979 (except perhaps monarchists) who would argue that the result of the referendum was not true?

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 11 2014 0:37 utc | 139

139) Dr. Mohamed Maleki seems to.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 11 2014 6:53 utc | 140

note that Dr Mohammad Maleki just happens to be the first name the idiot found after a quick google – it’s not like he actually knows anything about this, he just relys on google
for example “Matin-Dafteri was very closely associated with National Front. The vast majority of groups related to National Front campaigned for a ‘yes'”
the idiot would know that if he actually knew something about the subject rather that just c&p the first thing he found on google

Posted by: stfu | Jan 11 2014 8:10 utc | 141

Somebody;
Do you know Persian or do you rely on someone translating that article for you? Because I am sorry it is pretty much complete BS. The man is trying to discredit the validity of 2009 results and he has resorted to starting to discredit the first elections.
An occasional shenanigan by this or that person happens in every election, even irregularities happen in all elections, if we go by that there are NO valid election in the entire world.
Mt. Maleki is providing zero evidence and funny enough he admits that he himself has voted “YES” and at the time he had not doubted the result of the referendum, but rather he doubts it now.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 11 2014 16:29 utc | 142

Honestly I thought that the amount of subjective nonsense coming out of IR opposition had gone to its maximum at the time of 2009 elections. I must congratulate Mr. Maleki as he has gone beyond that.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 11 2014 16:35 utc | 143

You note that the media have taken a new twist (en masse) in this shenanigan and are reporting the mess in Syria as though the SAA are no longer defending their homeland anymore. The SOHR even went further yesterday as to put out a quote from the moderate cannibals that they were doing all they could to protect the Syrian people fom the bad cannibals.
I found this article interesting yesterday regarding the relationship between Al-Nusra and ISIS which touches on the same subject:
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/al-qaeda-leaks-baghdadi-and-golani-fight-over-levant-emirate
Pleb

Posted by: A Concerned Pleb | Jan 11 2014 21:34 utc | 144

Disguting Le Monde has a romantic story of a Tunisian commander met by his wife on the Turkish side of the border and skipping Friday prayer for a walk with her, impatient to go back to his country.
http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2014/01/11/pourchasses-par-les-rebelles-syriens-les-djihadistes-se-refugient-en-turquie_4346431_3210.html
(“chased by the Syrian rebels, the djihadists withdraw to Turkey”… but they weren’t when chased by the SAA?)

Posted by: Mina | Jan 11 2014 21:51 utc | 145

143) He seems to know what he is talking about

„Ich war bei der Volksabstimmung am 30.03.1979 der Zuständige für die Abstimmung im Wahllokal des Märtyrer-Krankenhauses im Stadtteil Tadschrisch in Teheran. Gegen Mittag kam ein Bekannter eilig vorbei, um seine Stimme abzugeben; er wohnte in unserem Viertel und war ein entfernter Verwandter, der auch ein Akademiker war und in einer Schule in Schemiran [ein Bezirk in der Hauptstadt Teheran] lehrte. Wir verlangten seinen Ausweis. Er lachte und sagte: „Ach was! Bis jetzt habe ich in mehr als einem Dutzend Wahllokalen gewählt“!! Ich und meine Frau und einige andere Zuständige des Wahllokals waren darüber schockiert. Wahrlich, sollten wir eigentlich nicht als Beschützer der Wahlstimmen des Volkes, nach dem Wissen über solche Wahlbetrüge, reagieren? Was war unsere Reaktion? Keine! Wir wollten um jeden Preis die Islamische Republik etablieren, aber den Preis dafür bezahlt jetzt die dritte Generation noch mit ihrem Blut

Summary in English: I was responsible for the referendum vote on March 30 1979 in a part of Tehran. An acquaintance, a distant relative came to vote. We asked for his identification. He said what for, I already voted in more than a dozen polling stations. Me, my wife and several others were shocked. How did we react? Not at all. We wanted to establish the Islamic Republic for any price, but the price is still being paid by the third generation now with their blood.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 11 2014 22:01 utc | 146

@somebody;
Yes I have read it in Persian when you sent the link at the beginning. It is pure BS. Personal misconducts happen in all elections. The important thing is whether the irregularities and cheatings were done on a systematic basis or not. Just for your information monarchists were a hell of a lot more inclined to make such cheatings as Maleki attributes to his own relative. This was an election which was conducted when there was not a stable government in place. With very few exceptions, all Iranian political groups which had any major follower promoted a ‘YES’ campaign. Mr. Maleki did not make the tiniest of objections at the time, in 2009 when he wanted to tarnish Ahmadinejad’s fair and square election victory (and in so doing betray his own nation’s majority vote) he all of a sudden went back to 1979 (of all of the elections!!) to speak nonsense.
We have talked enough on this issue and I have told all I had to tell. If you wish -and only if you wish- I can go into the details of Mr. Maleki’s article and refute the nonsense he has said. Incidentally, despite article’s conclusions being pure nonsense, some of his “quotations” from those day’s officials were really interesting and if you really go through the quotations that he has made from the time’s officials you will see that the referendum results were not really fixed.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 12 2014 2:32 utc | 147

Pirouz, just out of curiosity, I should be interested to know whether you can think of a single other country, anywhere in the world, where the population has consistently voted for religious government.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 12 2014 3:13 utc | 148

147) They were not fixed in the sense that the referendum would have won anyway – in a public green yes and a red no, no campaign for the no amd the only opposition saying “abstain”, the yes had to win.
Just this 98% participation with 98% yes is completely impossible, especially with like you say

This was an election which was conducted when there was not a stable government in place

and it is interesting that Khomeinists felt it necessary to enshrine this myth in the constitution.
Either, they did this to make the opposition that was to be eliminated after the referendum to disappear from the books completely. Or it was to silence any doubts on the validity of the constitution.
The office of the supreme leader took any future power from secularists as well as the traditional power of the Shiite clergy, I guess. Shiism has no supreme leader.
Dr. Mohamed Maleki’s opposition predates 2009 for many years. He did not emigrate. He paid for it dearly. It seems in what he does and says, he acts out of conscience.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2014 6:22 utc | 149

Manuel Ochsenreiter is a journalist who has visited Syria a number of times over the past few years. His output has been linked to on this board in times past. He has just returned from another visit to Syria and is interviewed by RT for three or four minutes with date 9 Jan 2014. He doesn’t have new news, but he helps to reconfirm and reaffirm other reports. http://rt.com/op-edge/moderate-syrian-oppostion-phantoms-346/ .
By the way, Manuel Ochsenreiter last September had a comment about democracy in Germany that’s relevant to the question of the nature of the Western governance system. He says about the large victory for the Christian Democrats and Angela Merkel in Germany’s elections in 2013: “Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats do not stand for any idea or ideology, except that of collecting votes…. It has now become the party where you find the old, stubborn traditional catholic alongside the gay rights activist, and the pro-life activist sharing space with the feminist. Above all, Angela Merkel and her team are completely “liberated” from any ideological foundation. The Christian Democrat party is everything and nothing at the same time: Social Democratic, ecologist, liberal, sometimes Christian…. It is all about collecting votes, nothing else.” (Ref). The same is true of the winning parties in all other Western democracies today. In marketing parlance, they are “market-driven” above all else. The way they win is to listen to the customers, and to give the customers whatever the customers say they want, and to live by the attitude that the customer is always right, and supplementarily to find a way to attractively differentiate the party’s products from the competitors’ products in the market.

Posted by: Parviziyi | Jan 12 2014 17:40 utc | 150

Somebody;
Apparently the participation was more like 92%. This was explained very clearly by the prime minister of the time (Bazargan) when he was giving the final result to the media. It is in the quotation that Mr. Maleki has made in his own article. Go back and read the thing and you will see.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 12 2014 17:50 utc | 151

151) Seems to me the calculation is 33 Million Iranians according to census at the time minus 15 million Iranians under 16 minus 4 million Iranians living high in inaccessible mountains minus one million over 70 too old to make it equals 13 million taking part in the vote maximum. Compare to 20,440,108 official votes.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 12 2014 19:29 utc | 152

Somebody;
Go for census data, and you can also refer to the quotation from Mr. Amir Entezam (Deputy prime minister of the time) which Mr. Maleki gives in his own article. Based on census data of 1976, over 16 Iranians number has been given by Mr. Amir entezam, (population growth of Iran between 1976 and 86 was 3.9% annually) over 16 population of Iran in 1979 could be roughly *estimated* to be more than 21 million.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 12 2014 20:09 utc | 153

153)3 years population growth would have added infants who could not vote. The number of 12-15 year old teenagers coming of age in 1978 would have had to be over 7 million more than people died in those three years to make the official vote possible. 7 million would be something like 30 percent in three years.
Population growth in Iran from 1990 to 2008 was 17.6 million(i.e. in 18 years) from a starting point of 50 million.
Population growth cannot explain those referendum numbers.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 13 2014 0:46 utc | 154

Somebody;
The assumption that I made was based on accepting the same age profile for the years 1976 to 1979. Do you have any reason to believe that the age profile of Iranian population should change significantly in 3 years?
According to 1976 census data -quoted by Mr. Amir Entezam- 18798200 in Iran were 16 or over, that makes 18798200/33708744= 55.7% (in 1976)
The population growth in Iran between 1976 and 1986 was on average 3.9% per year.
Assuming *roughly* the same age profile for both 1976 and 1979, the population of people of 16 or older in 1979 would become:
0.557*(33708744)*[(1.039)^3] = 0.557 * (33708744) * 1.121622319 =
21059323
According to the following paper my assumption on the more or less constancy of the population age profile between 1976 and 1979 is not far from the truth:

“The share of children aged 0-14 enumerated in
1986 (45.5%) is only slightly higher than that of 1976 (44.5%)”

If the percentage of people of 15 and over has not changed much from 1976 to 1986, it becomes plausible that it has also stayed pretty much the same between 1976 and 1979.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Jan 13 2014 1:38 utc | 155

Bizarre Anne Barnard effort in NYT relying on anonymous NYT employee in Aleppo (note that – not just anonymous sources, but an actual employee, unnamed for his or her own protection, which is a giant step into the black art of unaccountable journalism), relaying the Nusra propaganda meme that ISIS is in cahoots with Assad: here.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 13 2014 4:35 utc | 156

155) population growth means that the population gets younger on average …

Posted by: somebody | Jan 13 2014 6:11 utc | 157

@155 stupidity and dishonesty meen that 157 will NEVER admit to being wrong and is not smart enough to quit when hes wrong

Posted by: stfu | Jan 13 2014 6:28 utc | 158

158/155
It seemly means that the absolute number of 12 to 15 year old Iranians that existed in 1976 and would be able to vote in 1979 had no way to grow ….

Posted by: somebody | Jan 13 2014 6:47 utc | 159

So you have to start to calculate from a 1966 population of 25,785,210 and a population growth of ca. 500.000 per year which would add 1.5 million to the 18.798.200 to the population that could have voted in theory.
We still have the issue of the highland people living in cut off regions and the people too frail to vote.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 13 2014 7:08 utc | 160

b: Whether this infighting between the two al-Qaeda affiliates Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS is about, money or other issues, is not yet clear. ISIS seems not be putting up a real fight but is mostly just retreating when challenged. Something is fishy in this.
The infighting was most probably instigated by the western sponsors of the insurgents. Probable main motive of the western sponsors: Too many news in the MM about western support for al.Qaeda in Syria, The infighting gave the western sponsors the opportunity to create the appearance of them supporting groups which are fighting al-Qaeda.
How did the western sponsors start the infighting?
It was probably them who ordered ISIS to relocate to Anbar. As justification for such an order they would have used the argument that supply of the insurgents through Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel is becoming more difficult:
– because of the strength of the position of the SAA in the south,
– because of mounting internal opposition against the such transits in the first three countries mentioned and
– because of the possibility that continuing supplies and reinforcements through these countries might, after Geneva 2, not any longer possible.
Some of the sponsors, like SA and Israel, are hoping to continue the fighting in Syria, even after Geneva 2, with supplies coming from SA through Anbar.
The sponsors must have counted with the probability that ISIS will not relinquish its positions in Syria without fighting as they are certainly making quite some money by taxes and extortion in the areas they control.
Why did the sponsors choose ISIS to fight ?
ISIS is said to be close to Turkey. In Turkey we are witnessing western services undermining the Erdogan position using the US-based Gulen. Fighting ISIS might well be a part of this action.

Posted by: alpino | Jan 15 2014 11:48 utc | 161

It’s a setup between ISIS & Nusra, I suspect. Nusra is two-faced, whereas ISIS is like AQ on steroids, if that’s possible. Maybe Nusra will act as a funnel to filter people from ISIS back into the so-called moderate Islamist wing, i.e. launder them.

Posted by: Rowan Berkeley | Jan 15 2014 12:40 utc | 162