For lack of time just a link to a good writeup of the greater picture in the Middle East. Recommended reading (h/t Sophia): Musa al-Gharbi: Al-Qaeda's renaissance
However, so long as the protests remained peaceful, al-Qaeda
was, in a sense, sidelined. Ironically, the Western
interventions/escalations in Libya and Syria gave them an “in” and
subsequently al-Qaeda has played a decisive and growing role in those
theaters.Contrary to Western assumptions (fueled by media disinformation), the Libyans did not rise up in great numbers
to overthrow Gaddhafi, and there were few military and government
defections. Accordingly, the colonel continued to advance on Benghazi
despite the NATO-imposed no-fly zone. Foreign fighters from AQIM rushed in to compensate for the lack of indigenous resistance—but even then the local population refused to provide the rebels with provisions or support, forcing NATO allies to overstep their mandate in UNSCR 1973 (just as they did in UNSCR 1441), likely in violation of international law.
…
Al-Qaeda was quick to endorse the Syrian "uprising;" they began by bombing targets in Damascus and quickly stepped up their involvement from there. The late Abu Yaya al-Libi called for a “violent jihad”
in Syria without compromise or “illusions of peacefulness” until
President al-Asad is overthrown. The al-Qaeda affiliated al-Nusra Front
was primarily responsible for the rebel gains in Aleppo, which marked a turning point in the rebellion—they have since become the most effective and influential fighting force in the Syrian theater.
…
In Libya and Syria, the U.S. and its allies essentially ceded the
narrative to al-Qaeda, agreeing that there can be no talk of democratic
reforms while "dictators" remain in power. This message is further underscored by the recent military coup in Egypt, and subsequent persecution of the Muslim Brotherhood;
to many Sunni Islamists, these developments serve as definitive proof
that oppressive regimes cannot be purged through a peaceful political
process as they (and their international supporters) have no respect for
the popular will, and they are too corrupt to be reformed.