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Egypt: Escalating To What?
Over night the Muslim Brotherhood continued a sit-in in front of the Republican Guard Headquarter in Cairo. It is assumed that former president Morsi is held there.
At about 4:00am local time today a shoot out occurred there in which at least 50 people were killed and over 300 were wounded.
According to the Muslim Brotherhood the sit-in was attacked by soldiers during dawn prayers. According to the army two officers died when some "armed terrorists" attacked the soldiers which then responded to the fire.
In a video, allegedly of the incident, tear gas clouds can be seen and gun shoots are heard. At that time it is still pitch dark. According to one eyewitness account tear gas volleys by the military were responded to with bird shoots by the MB protesters.
A standoff continues around the Rafba'a mosque where the MB had held rallies. Some MB followers have retreated in the mosque while the police and military is attempting to clear the side. Gunshots can be heard in the area.
A Muslim Brotherhood statement claimed a "massacre" had taken place and said "even the Jews don't do this". It called for an intifada or "uprising" against the military.
Meanwhile the political situation is unresolved. Names put forward for a prime minister by the Tahrir protesters, now allied with the military and the Salafists, were rejected by the later. The main Salafist party has for now withdrawn from any further negotiations.
It is hard to see how the situation can be resolved. The power of the military is unchecked, a political compromise is further away than ever and the economic problems are getting worse. The Russian president Putin warned that Egypt is approaching a civil war. He may well be right with that assessment.
In the current situation any party can easily stoke the fire with very little effort. A few shots into this direction, a few shots into that direction and the war is on.
Having started and trained security companies and staff and seen what can occur when security entities go rouge because of poor oversight and regulations, including the gray area(s) in how/where it operates-I have a question: The the recent shootings and deaths, main shooting cause (Media) was shotgun (Gauge?, in that, and from my experience 2 groups that tend to be armed with Shotguns are either Police but limited to need and role and the other ‘Private Security sectors’ with a very high ratio. Next it is the weapon of choice for Farm, rural settings (As it is also good for hunting and fending off Wild animals) including home protection, the latter more than likely not the case in Egypt. In the case of Egypt, long arms are prohibited, so not too sure how this works, and if that includes the PSS, in that light I have just thrown it out there. I do know an AK is about $300 on the black market in Egypt.
Like many Countries Egypt has a number of unregulated PS firms, these vary in numbers from 100 into the 1000’s, most are connected, in that’ Businessmen, politicians, Police or Ex-police and if needed are a small army. It is also big business! Statistics indicating a 300 percent increase in homicides and a 12-fold increase in armed robberies since the 2011 revolution. Private security actors — either in the form of trained guards or hired muscle — are increasingly filling this vacuum. The problem is who they are, many are radical, the vetting is abysmal, in fact you can see one security office fired from a past post for theft, threat/intimidation etc and hired within days for another security firm (Saves on training, it’s just numbers and they know he/she will take less coin). From what I heard, MB and Al-Qaida linked entities are very active in this role – It’s Business – brother, and a legit method of having a force.
Ihab Youssef, a former police officer who now heads the risk management and security group Risk Free, identifies three main problem areas in the private security sector: an absence of a government master plan, no oversight of security guards and their qualifications, and, finally, no benefits, such as social and life insurance. As a result, Youssef says, security guards have “no sense of loyalty to the job.” In short, who pays get what they want -I would say that is a very fair and basic assessment.
Egypt may well be heading the way of Iraq and other post conflict regions, estimated 2 million people employed in private security firms, so figures state at the moment its over 50% of employment (Includes cleaners, maids, caretakers under that umbrella) — more than are employed in the police force, (more than the military) — performing policing functions, most are semi literate, have little to no training – it’s a problem…
Found a few links http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/06/17/private-sector-in-postrevolution-egypt/gam5
http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and-Operations/Brochure%20Egypt%20Anglais.pdf
I myself have worked in many Countries where the PSS was used as a force, tool ‘for’ those in power and those in Business, a very real threat and an ‘Army’. In terms of DDR programmes, even National security it is an all too often overlooked risk, as many assume it ‘Security’.
Thoughts?
Posted by: kev | Jul 9 2013 2:51 utc | 86
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