The situation and protests in Turkey have calmed down for now. While Erdogan managed to stay on, the damages to him and his future plans are done. The protesters have won on their initial issue. Gezi park is likely to stay as a park. Even new trees get planted there now. The mayor of Istanbul promised to consult with the public before any major new project is considered:
“I have expressed to my colleagues that we should be an example municipality in sharing projects with the public,” Topbaş said.
He also said that seven municipal employees who were involved in a police raid on Gezi Park in the first days of the protests had been suspended. They are accused of burning the tents of a small group of protesters on May 30, before the street action spread to many provinces across the country.
Erdogan's central government has yet to see such light and continues with its authoritarian and repressive ways. Some 94 people, mostly from leftist organizations, were imprisoned and later released for allegedly instigating the protests. These were just the "usual suspects". The police ordered new riot control gas cartridges after some 130,000(!) were used during 20 days of protests. The powers of the police are now to be expanded. A new law to "regulate" social media is being introduced which will likely take away any online anonymity. Several media organizations have been fined for broadcasting pictures from the protests and riots and one non-AKP TV station has been ordered off the air over quite flimsy "license issues". The Gülen paper Today Zaman was threatened by the government and AKP officials after it published a poll that showed a harsh drop in support for Erdogan:
The poll also seemed to suggest that the public's support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has come down some 11 percent in June 2013 compared to the same month a year ago, while the popularity of Erdoğan took a blow with a 7 percent drop in his popularity in just a month. Most people see Erdoğan's tone as harsh and confrontational. The government's Syrian policy remains unpopular as well.
Additional damage due to Erdogan was done in the foreign policy field and the economy.
The EU delays a decision for the opening of the next negotiation chapters with Turkey. That has not immediately to do with the protest but with general public opinion in certain European countries that do not want an authoritarian Turkey to become a dominating force in the Union. The Erdogan government threatened to cut off all relations with the EU should the opening of the new chapter not pass. The EU is unlikely to like being threatened. Until recently Erdogan and his sidekick Davutoğlu had counted their steps towards EU membership as major successes.
Not directly caused by the protests but exacerbated by them is the recent downturn of Turkey's economy:
The lira depreciated for a fourth day, weakening as much as 1.5 percent to a record 1.9315 before the central bank held two currency auctions to support it. The lira was at 1.9192 a dollar at 2:34 p.m. in Istanbul, taking its drop this month to 2.3 percent. The yield on two-year benchmark bonds surged 71 basis points to 7.52 percent, the highest since October, while the 10-year yield advanced 67 basis points to 8.06 percent.
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The benchmark Borsa Istanbul National 100 (XU100) equity index slumped 4.5 percent to 75,252.11 points, the biggest decliner today among 94 gauges tracked by Bloomberg. Volume climbed to 22 percent above the 30-day average for that time of the day, data compiled by Bloomberg show.The measure has decreased more than 12 percent since May 31, when an environmentalist sit-in against the redevelopment of a public park in Turkey’s biggest city snowballed into nationwide protests against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government.
Throughout the last years Turkey's economic boom depended on foreign investment, hot money that can leave overnight, and an increase in consumer debt. With the Lira falling, credit tightening and interests increasing the Erdogan boom will become a bust.
Erdogan will of cause blame the "interest lobby" which he also blamed for instigating the protests. The "interest lobby" is a dog whistle sound for his arch supporters who hear it as meaning "the Jews". For them Erdogan's economic policies, which depended on unsustainable current account deficits, are not yet to blame. That may well change though should the drop in growth directly hurt their income.
Erdogan's plans to change the constitution and to then become an all-mighty president are in taters. A majority of Turks is now against these plans and the continuing fall-out from the recent affairs will solidify that opinion. Due to extreme weaknesses in the organized opposition Erdogan would today likely still win in elections. But the trends are now against him and his political future looks quite bleak.