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A Syria Expert – Six Month Ago
Six month ago an often quoted academic and so called expert on Syria tweeted the following:
Aleppo falling to FSA. Rebels take al-Syrian Jadide, heart of Christian area. #syria #aleppo
4:46 AM – 25 Oct 12
al-Syiraan Adime just fell to rebel militias as well. Center of Aleppo fallen. #syria #aleppo
4:52 AM – 25 Oct 12
Syria Regime Gives up Aleppo. FSA sharpshooters on top of all buildings in a-Syrian jadide and Qadime, Christian heartland #Syria #Aleppo
4:54 AM – 25 Oct 12
Shooting has stopped totally in Aleppo. Eerie silence overtakes city as government relinquishes control and Rebels take over. #Syria #Aleppo
5:09 AM – 25 Oct 12
@FareedZakaria #syria Aleppo has fallen to rebels. Government gives up control as eerie silence decends over city.
5:12 AM – 25 Oct 12
Those hilarious illusions though, ended a few hours later:
Gov tanks descend on Faisal street – main road near al-Syriaan jadide, Rebel troops retreat into Ashrafiya. #syria #aleppo
12:33 PM – 25 Oct 12
Depending on the insurgency's propaganda for information, working with a simplistic sectarian mental model of the complex Syrian society and having zero experience in the art of war is the base of such sorry expertise.
Experience based realistic interpretation of all available facts would certainly provide for better analysis. Unfortunately there are few real practitioners of such a process in U.S. foreign policy discussions.
Ya know, while we are on the topic of moderation….
I hope b doesn’t mind this post, but I am on wits end over at Mondo. The moderation there is so sucky, so inexplicable, that Phil and Adam embarrass themselves by allowing it, or if they are, engaging in it. I only post this here because I know Annie reads this blog, and attempting to post a complaint at Mondo is an exercise in futility, as they simply don’t allow it to appear. And emailing Adam or Phil for an explanation is a fruitless endeavor as well, because they simply don’t respond. Case in point, on this particular thread…
http://mondoweiss.net/2013/04/vulnerability-americans-consider.html
….I posted the following comment, which is basking in “moderation” mode. But note the comment that appears under mine. It was submitted at a later time, yet “passed” whatever chicken shit system of “moderation” they are engaging in over there. Truth be told, it pisses me off. Particularly in light of the past sniveling I witnessed over there about how another site was biased in its moderation when banning Phil or Adam (can’t remember which one) for his comments…..
Anyway, you be the judge. Why is my post (Blank State) languishing in “moderation” when a subsequent post (Donald), saying basically the same thing, sailed right through…
Blank State says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
April 27, 2013 at 1:08 pm
Wrong.
Phil, you obviously are not hobnobbing with Joe Homeowner middle america. We are, collectively, some of the most ignorant, ill-informed, brainwashed, and opinionated creatures on God’s green earth. Just this morning, at the counter of one of the local eateries here, I listened to an extremely intelligent (seriously) townsperson wax elequent on middle eastern affairs, citing, verbatim, the worthless swill that is regurgitated daily on Fox News. We have a looooong ways to go before your optimism is even remotely founded in reality. As long as our media continues to be a spokesentity for Washington DC and its policies, rather than serving as our Fourth Estate, the idea that the general public will wake up to the very real phenomena of “blowback” is ludicrous to the extreme. Our general sources of info are corrupted beyond redemption, becoming more so with each passing day. Our ignorance is nurtured with misinformation designed to popularize policy and agenda.
Truthfully, often times I find the optimism expressed here naive to the extreme. Case in point, the recent swooning expectations many expressed about the impending confirmation of Hagel as Sec of Def. Does anyone here really believe he would have ascended to his position if he was willing to buck the status quo?
No, Phil, these events, such as the Boston bombing, are merely fodder to continue to nurture a public acceptance of middle eastern policy. Politically capitalized on, they have the exact OPPOSITE effect on the public psyche than the effect that you are so optimistic in advancing. Besides, if a localized and relatively minor “attack” such as the Boston event does not get us all back in line chanting the GWOT mantra, I have no doubt that a larger event will be concocted to do the trick. The two kids in Boston are a prime example of a neo-con’s wet dream. I imagine those such as Cheney thanked thier lucky stars when those two bombs exploded.
Donald says:
April 27, 2013 at 1:44 pm
Wishful thinking Phil. (You do that a lot–maybe it’s a necessary part of being a full-time activist, to keep your own morale up.) Mainstream America (at least what the mainstream press allows us to see) simply doesn’t do that sort of reflection. I wouldn’t choose the Boston example anyway if I wanted to make the case.
Posted by: PissedOffAmerican | Apr 27 2013 23:45 utc | 94
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