Apparently not wanting to rape Megan Thee-Brenan exhibits a celibate streak. How else can one explain her choice of words in this opening graph:

Americans are exhibiting an isolationist streak, with majorities across party lines decidedly opposed to American intervention in North Korea or Syria right now as economic concerns continue to dwarf all other issues, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Is it certainly not isolationist to not wanting to wage another useless war. There surely are other means to interact with other countries.

But one wonders how Megan Thee-Brenan's sex-life is going along. With violence apparently being the only acceptable communication to her, she might have trouble to find some caring partner.

The New York Times reports on increasing water problems at the nuclear reactors that melted down at Fukushima Daiichi:

Flow of Tainted Water Is Latest Crisis at Japan Nuclear Plant

Two years after a triple meltdown that grew into the world’s second worst nuclear disaster, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is faced with a new crisis: a flood of highly radioactive wastewater that workers are struggling to contain.

…
“The water keeps increasing every minute, no matter whether we eat, sleep or work,” said Masayuki Ono, a general manager with Tepco who acts as a company spokesman. “It feels like we are constantly being chased, but we are doing our best to stay a step in front.”

While the company has managed to stay ahead, the constant threat of running out of storage space has turned into what Tepco itself called an emergency, with the sheer volume of water raising fears of future leaks at the seaside plant that could reach the Pacific Ocean.

…
“We were so focused on the fuel rods and melted reactor cores that we underestimated the water problem,” said Tatsujiro Suzuki, vice chairman of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, a government body that helped draw up Tepco’s original cleanup plan. “Someone from outside the industry might have foreseen the water problem.”

“Might have foreseen” the water problem?

No. Not “might have”. We did foresee this problem two years ago and we even suggested a solution:

While TEPCO is saying little about what it is doing at Daiichi it seems that their plan is to continue this “feed and bleed” cooling for the several month the nuclear fuel will need to cool below boiling temperature.

I believe that this is not sustainable. So far more than 60,000 tons of water were fed into the complex, got highly radiated and flowed out uncontrolled through various leaks. The turbine buildings with needed equipment are flooded. Some highly radiated water did flow into the sea. The measures to stop leaking to the sea are unconvincing. Groundwater radiation at the site has increased tenfold which suggests other additional leaks.

…
Feeding, contaminating and leaking additional hundreds of tons of water per day over several month is not a viable plan. TEPCO urgently needs to come up with a different cooling strategy. I stand by my suggestion to push a slurry of sand/boron/lead into the reactors which eventually will dry and form a solid mass preventing further leakage. Cooling would then take place through convection just like in Chernobyl.

While this would certainly make future disassembling more difficult, it would also prevent further leakage and radiation releases.

It is sad to see that the Japanese regulators and professional nuclear engineers could not see the problem, and a solution to it, when an amateur like me clearly could. It is still not too late to try a more permanent solution at Fukushima Daiichi. But with the incest between Japanese nuclear industry, politics and bureaucracy elites the more likely solution will be to pump the radioactive water into the sea. Have fun eating those glowing fish …

Dear Washington Post,

is the Jordan king Abdullah asking for a diplomatic solution in Syria or for military intervention?

On April 26 you reported:
Jordan’s Abdullah urges diplomatic action to end Syrian conflict

Jordan is urging the Obama administration to intensify efforts to find a political settlement to the Syrian conflict, …

…
Despite the failure of previous initiatives, the king urged a renewed attempt at a negotiated settlement as the only realistic path toward ending the conflict without splintering the country or condemning it to endless bloodshed.

On April 29 your news report claims:

The Obama administration worked Monday to preserve thinning hopes for a political deal that could end the Syrian civil war and to hold off rising pressure from lawmakers and Syria’s Arab neighbors for more direct U.S. involvement.

…
Several of Syria’s Arab neighbors, led by close U.S. ally Jordan, are lobbying for a more forceful U.S. role in Syria. There is no consensus about what the United States should do, however. Options include giving heavier gear to the rebels, providing protection for refugees or rebel fighters with missile batteries or aircraft, or authorizing precision airstrikes to destroy chemical weapons stockpiles or key air defenses.

So now you claim that "several of Syria’s Arab neighbors" want a U.S. war on Syria. Only Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan are Arab countries which share borders with Syria. None of then, according to your own reporting, has indeed asked for a military intervention. So how come you are now lying to your readers with such nonsensical claims?

Under the headline Hezbollah will ‘wipe out’ Israel in war, Iran says one Aaron Kalman writes for the Times of Israel:

The semi-official FARS news agency quoted Sepehr as
saying that Hezbollah’s sizable stockpile of rockets can overcome
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, and if Israel and Hezbollah
engage in war, “the resistance front will wipe out Israel.”

full screenshot

The link in that ToI paragraph goes to a Fars News Agency piece headlined IRGC Official Warns Israel against Invasion of Lebanon. That piece includes this paragraph:

He warned Israel of the heavy costs of any possible aggression against Lebanon, and stated, "If a (similar) 33-day war (against Lebanon) happens again, Hezbollah and the resistance front will wipe off Israel."

full screenshot

It would be wrong to wipe out hasbara liars like Mr. Aaron Kalman. But they should be wiped off the pages of the Internet.

(h/t Nima Shirazi)

After more than two years of obfuscating the obvious the New York Times finally decided to write something truthful about the Syrian insurgency:

Nowhere in rebel-controlled Syria is there a secular fighting force to speak of.

…
The Islamist character of the opposition reflects the main constituency of the rebellion, which has been led since its start by Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority, mostly in conservative, marginalized areas.

From the very start in Daraa the violent protests started at mosques. In late March 2011 a weapon cache was found inside the Omari mosque in Daraa. All of the "battalions" founded by the various insurgent groups were named after venerated Sunni figures or themes. It was therefore absolutely clear that this was a sectarian insurgency, with foreign support, from the very beginning.

The U.S., as the NYT, so far promoted this sectarian monster as some kind of civil rights movement. As the NYT now removed that mask (likely due to some White House proding), how long will it take until it helps to kill it off?

Cont. reading: Syria: NYT Starts Telling The Truth About Syria

As I wrote a few days ago:

Due to considerable progress by the Syrian government against the foreign sponsored, jihadist insurgency new allegations have to be found to justify additional foreign intervention.

Mahir Zenalov, who writes for the Turkish paper Today Zaman, concludes the same. The "chemical weapons" scam is just an excuse to justify a wider use of force against the Syria.

Zenalov points out that other "western" interventions, in Bosnia and in Libya, came when the "western" proxy forces were in serious difficulties and the anti-"western" government forces on the cusps of winning. The state in Syria is just that. The opposition is on the run and  the government troops are progressing.

Zenalov writes:

Successful military gains of the Syrian regime forces over the past few weeks have pushed the US and its allies to reconsider intervening in Syria.

…
In the past few weeks, government forces have launched major offensives in Homs, Idlib, Kurdish-populated areas and in and around Aleppo and the capital Damascus. It is evidently clear that the military balance on the ground is tilting back toward government forces again after a counteroffensive.

This change in the military balance made the case for intervention much stronger in Washington and other European capitals. Along with Obama, UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Ankara also voiced concerns over the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Other nations will follow suit in the days to come.

On Saturday, Turkish EU Minister Egemen Bağış acknowledged that Washington is preparing to intervene in Syria and that the possible use of chemical weapons are not the main drive.

Washington says the evidence of chemical weapons use is only “preliminary.” The evidence will get “rock solid” if Damascus wins major battles against the opposition next week. In previous months, there had also been reports of alleged chemical use by the Syrian army. True or not, there is no reason why Assad’s regime would use chemical weapons if it knows that that means inviting Washington to intervene.

Mahir Zenalov thinks that the Syrian government knows that winning too much would only invite immediate intervention. He suggest that Damascus will therefor, after cleaning up around Damascus and along the major road arteries, stop the current offensive and, again, offer negotiations:

Damascus faces a major dilemma: If it continues with its so far successful offensive, it will make the case bolder for intervention. Western powers don’t want Assad to win and they were expecting opposition forces to finish the fight. If the opposition fails to make any further gains, the West will come to its aid.

If Damascus is smart enough, it will strengthen its bases in and around the capital to have an upper hand in possible negotiations and offer dialogue to solve the crisis.

That may be an option. But I will not bet on it. The intervention is certainly not a done deal. The recent drone intrusion from Lebanon into Israel was a serious warning. If Syria is attacked Israel will get hit – no matter what. There is no way to avoid that. This fact alone is a serious impediment for any "western" move. There is also a Russian fleet underway which will reach the Mediterranean in mid May and will stay there permanently. It is a wild card in any air attack or submarine launched cruise missile raid on Syria. A ground attack is even less likely. Neither Britain nor any other country is willing to send ground troops.

Aside from those military problems the public in all concerned countries seems to be against any intervention. Judging from the comments at various news sides the chemical attack scam convinced no one.

That is why I disagree with Mahir Zenalov conclusion. The current threat of intervention is not credible.

The Syrian government will therefor not stop its offensive for fear of an intervention. It will not start to negotiate. With whom should it do so anyway? If its current offensive is successful it will continue to build on it and will pursue the enemy as much as it can.

Six month ago an often quoted academic and so called expert on Syria tweeted the following:

Aleppo falling to FSA. Rebels take al-Syrian Jadide, heart of Christian area. #syria #aleppo
4:46 AM – 25 Oct 12

al-Syiraan Adime just fell to rebel militias as well. Center of Aleppo fallen. #syria #aleppo
4:52 AM – 25 Oct 12

Syria Regime Gives up Aleppo. FSA sharpshooters on top of all buildings in a-Syrian jadide and Qadime, Christian heartland #Syria #Aleppo
4:54 AM – 25 Oct 12

Shooting has stopped totally in Aleppo. Eerie silence overtakes city as government relinquishes control and Rebels take over. #Syria #Aleppo
5:09 AM – 25 Oct 12

@FareedZakaria #syria Aleppo has fallen to rebels. Government gives up control as eerie silence decends over city.
5:12 AM – 25 Oct 12

Those hilarious illusions though, ended a few hours later:

Gov tanks descend on Faisal street – main road near al-Syriaan jadide, Rebel troops retreat into Ashrafiya. #syria #aleppo
12:33 PM – 25 Oct 12

Depending on the insurgency's propaganda for information, working with a simplistic sectarian mental model of the complex Syrian society and having zero experience in the art of war is the base of such sorry expertise.

Experience based realistic interpretation of all available facts would certainly provide for better analysis. Unfortunately there are few real practitioners of such a process in U.S. foreign policy discussions.

Due to considerable progress by the Syrian government against the foreign sponsored, jihadist insurgency new allegations have to be found to justify additional foreign intervention.

These now come in the form of alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government:

"Shrunken pupils, foaming at the mouth and other signs indicate, in our view, that lethal chemical weapons were used."

The U.S. government does not support these unsubstantiated allegations.
While "foaming at the mouth" can be a sign of chemical weapon exposure other possible causes for apparent "foaming at the mouth" do exist.

A man "foaming at the mouth"

One therefore should be cautious about the "proof" under the Telegraph's headline Syria doctor's Facebook video proof that Assad used chemicals in Aleppo:

Syria's regime dropped chemical weapons from a plane on a district of Aleppo earlier this month, killing two infants and a woman, experts said after a doctor in Aleppo posted a video of apparent victims to his Facebook page.

…
Niazi Habash, a British-trained doctor who treated the Aleppo victims, said they showed symptoms of exposure to chemicals, including breathing difficulties, foaming at the mouth and pinprick pupils.

The short video posted at the Telegraph site shows three persons laying on hospital stretchers. All three persons have some white foam around their mouths. None of them shows any acute breathing problem. All three seem rather relaxed. Here are three screenshots from the doctor's video showing each of the three "victims". You may judge yourself what kind of "chemical weapon" might have produced their "foaming at the mouth" symptom.

A man "foaming at the mouth"

Cont. reading: Syria: Shaving Cream As Chemical Weapon

Three nations led the attack against Libya's leader Gaddhafi. They supported the jihadist inspired insurgency against the Libyan government by bombing any Libyan military target they could find.

Britain and France trained for this intervention in the Southern Mistral 2011 maneuver which was eventually merged into the real war on Libya. The U.S. joined in on the campaign by providing the "break in" capability that defeated the Libyan air defense network.

The hope of all three nations was to increase their diplomatic leverage and economic advantages by installing a friendly puppet government in Libya.

Since then all three nations had to learn that there diplomats are not welcome in Libya.

On July 11 2012 the British ambassador convoy was attacked in Benghazi. The ambassador escaped the assassination attempt but two man of his protection detail were wounded.

On September 11 an attack on a U.S. "consulate" that was a cover for a large CIA station killed the U.S. ambassador to Libya.

Today a car bomb exploded in front of the French embassy in Tripoli and wounded two of the embassy security detail as well as a Libyan civilian.

The three nations that intevened all had their diplomats attacked by very same jihadist insurgents they "helped" to take over the country.

One would hope that politicians would learn a bit or two from such blowbacks. Unfortunately that is not the case. The same three key countries are now supporting the jihadist insurgency against the Syrian government. The only thing that will prevent similar blowbacks is a victory of the Syrian government over the insurgency, something that still looks likely.

This is currently "news":

A senior Israeli military intelligence official said on Tuesday that Syrian President Bashar Assad used chemical weapons last month in his battle against insurgent groups.
…
In his assessment, Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, the head of research and analysis in Israeli military intelligence, told a security conference in Tel Aviv that Assad has used chemical weapons multiple times. Among the incidents were attacks documented by the French and British near Damascus last month.

"To the best of our professional understanding, the regime used lethal chemical weapons against the militants in a series of incidents over the past months, including the relatively famous incident of March 19," he said.

But what, if any, is the evidence the Israelis have?

"Shrunken pupils, foaming at the mouth and other signs indicate, in our view, that lethal chemical weapons were used."

These are only visual signs. Instead of doing a chemical analysis that would be required to find chemical weapons the Israelis seem to have simply been looking at videos provided by the insurgents in Syria.

"Shrunken pupils, foaming at the mouth and other signs" in videos, if genuine at all, could have come from a variety of causes. These symptoms could be a sign for heroin and other drug use. Medical issues like seizure could also explain these symptoms. Sarin exposure though leads to lots of additional symptoms and would likely also effect those giving first aid to, or is making a video of, anyone who was seriously exposed to that stuff.

In the "famous incident of March 19" there were no chemical weapons but chlorine that, according to a Reuters reporter, was used against a government held barrier. Several Syrian army soldiers died. The attack came after insurgents had captured a factory east of Aleppo that produced chlorine for disinfecting drinking water.

So lets call the Israeli claim what it is: Factless propaganda.

After big participations in earlier “Friends of Syria” meetings the number of countries involved in these has shrunk to less than a dozen.

The “Friends of Syria Group”:

The Group of Friends of the Syrian People (sometimes: Friends of Syria Group or Friends of the Syrian People Group or Friends of Democratic Syria or simply Friends of Syria) is an international diplomatic collective of countries and bodies convening periodically on the topic of Syria outside the U.N. Security Council. The collective was created in response to a Russian and Chinese veto on a Security Council resolution condemning Syria; American president Barack Obama has stated that it was organized by the United States.

The group met for the first time on February 24 2012 in Tunisia:

Representatives of more than 70 nations have gathered for a “Friends of Syria” conference in the Tunisian capital aimed at finding ways to end bloodshed in Syria’s increasingly violent uprising.

The group met for the second time on April 1 2012 in Istanbul:

Representatives of the 70-plus nations comprising the group decided to recognize the Syrian National Council, the largest opposition body, as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people and the opposition as a whole.

The group met for the third time on July 6 2012 in Paris:

Over 100 countries have sent delegations to the third meeting of “Friends of Syria” held in Paris, where foreign ministers and senior diplomats were expected to further back Syrian opposition by equipping them with communication tools to improve their organisation.

The group met for the fourth time on December 12 2012 in Marrakech:

The 114 states attending the conference as well as 15 NGOs, meanwhile, expressed their serious concern regarding the dire situation of the internally displaced people and those who seek refugee outside Syria due to the domestic violence.

The group met for the fifth time on February 28 2013 in Rome:

The new US Secretary of State John Kerry met for about an hour with opposition leader Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib before the 11-nation Friends of Syria meeting kicked off at the 16th-century Villa Madama on a hilltop above Rome.

The group met for the sixth time on April 20 2013 in Istanbul:

In a joint statement by the 11 countries attending the Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul, extreme concern was expressed over the Syria conflict and condemnation for the brutal campaign of the Syrian regime.

From 114 down to 11 participants seems to express diminished support for the ever complaining Syrian opposition:

These 11 countries besides Turkey are the United States, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Italy, Germany and France.

A Syrian opposition figure, who asked to remain anonymous, told Al-Monitor that the main challenge in the meeting was “for a millionth time to persuade the Westerners to agree to provide arms to the opposition, but they still have reservations because of the radical elements.” One senior opposition figure also told Reuters: “The world must know if they don’t agree on our right to receive weapons this will be the last meeting the opposition attend. We will not attend any meetings after this.”

Yesterday’s inconclusive meeting may well have been the last occurrence of the “Friends of Syria”. Meanwhile the head of the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) Moaz al-Khatib resigned again.

Around Damascus the Syrian army seems to make more progress in wrestling down the Jihadist insurgency. The Free Syrian Army spoke of “tactical withdrawal” and, as usual in its forced retreats, alleged that the Syrian Army committed a “massacre”. Translation: “The Syrian army beat the shit out of us.”

The Russian government induces some smart propaganda by buying advertisement space in U.S. media. This to make the connection between the Boston marathon bomber, Chechen insurgents and U.S. sponsored terrorism in Syria.

The right advertisement column of the Washington Post homepage is currently filled with links to Russia Beyond The Headlines, a multi-language site run by a Russian government paper.

bigger

The current top story at the RBTH site is Suspected Boston bombers linked to Russia’s Caucasus but the top story featured in the RBTH advertisement at WashingtonPost.com is Chechen ‘Jihadist International’ emerges in Syria.

It is a prominent reminder for U.S. citizens that their government is promoting the same terrorism is Syria that hit them in Boston. Well done Mr. Putin.

Meanwhile the insurgency in Chechnya, the Command of the Mujahideen Vilayat Dagestan IR, just released their own statement (in Russian) about the Boston incidents. Points gleaned from the auto-translated text:

• Any relation of the Boston event with our fight is just speculative
• We don't fight the United States. We are at war with Russia for its occupation of the Caucasus and for its "heinous crimes against Muslims"
• We do not strike civilian targets
• The media should stop their speculations and the repetition of Russian propaganda.

The last paragraph is the most interesting as it introduces a conspiracy theory that could gain some grounds with neoconned, rightwing Russia bashers like the Washington Post editors:

If the U.S. government is really interested in establishing the true organizers of explosions in Boston, and are not complicit in Russian play, then they should focus on involvement in the events occurring Russian security services.

The theory of Russian security services involvement in the Boston event does not make much sense. Why did those services alarm the FBI about Tamerlan Tsarnaev back in 2011 if he was, knowingly or unknowingly, one of their agents?

Aside from that plausibility the Chechen insurgents, like their neocon friends, do not have a good record on truth. Their assertions not to strike at civilians runs counter to the record. The Russian propaganda is more believable.

One might guess that the Russians told the FBI to come clean on this issue "or else …"

FBI Press release: 2011 Request for Information on Tamerlan Tsarnaev from Foreign Government

Once the FBI learned the identities of the two brothers today, the FBI reviewed its records and determined that in early 2011, a foreign government asked the FBI for information about Tamerlan Tsarnaev. The request stated that it was based on information that he was a follower of radical Islam and a strong believer, and that he had changed drastically since 2010 as he prepared to leave the United States for travel to the country’s region to join unspecified underground groups.

In response to this 2011 request, the FBI checked U.S. government databases and other information to look for such things as derogatory telephone communications, possible use of online sites associated with the promotion of radical activity, associations with other persons of interest, travel history and plans, and education history. The FBI also interviewed Tamerlan Tsarnaev and family members. The FBI did not find any terrorism activity, domestic or foreign, and those results were provided to the foreign government in the summer of 2011. The FBI requested but did not receive more specific or additional information from the foreign government.

Some points and questions:

• The Russians knew for years that the elder brother was radicalizing.
• They told the FBI.
• The FBI investigated him. It talked with the family and the person. (This confirms what the mother and the father said.)
• Did the FBI try to "turn" or entrap him like it did with so many other nuts?
• If not why not?
• If they did turn him did he do their bidding or was he running as a double agent (compare David Headely)?
• The man was in Russia January to July 2012.
• Why wasn't he (or was he?) under observation at that time?
• Did the brothers really do the marathon bombing or were they, like their parents assume, set up as culprids?

The early FBI involvement with the brothers leads to many interesting questions. We can think of a dozen possible conspiracies here. It is unlikely though that we will ever find out which of them is the real one.

Updates below (last 2:00pm)

It is pretty amazing that I can follow the bomber hunt in Boston from Germany minute by minute through live TV, live Boston police scanner and via several twitter streams. There is even a Google map to follow the various incidents.

According to AP the two suspects of the marathon bombing are Chechen brothers from Russia's Daghestan. The area like Chechnya has been a hotbed that has exported Jihadists to allegedly Afghanistan, Syria and now probably the U.S. too. There is no need for Obama to bomb that country though. These brothers have been living in the U.S. for several years plus Putin already did that.

It seems they robbed a 7/11 at around 10:30pm local time somewhere near Cambridge.

Next an MIT police officer gets killed in his car with several shots.

The two suspects then highjack a Mercedes SUV and its driver. After 30 minutes the car driver is led out at a gas station.

Police pursue the Mercedes SUV to Watertown. The car rams a police car and a violent shoot out develops through which the suspects throw some grenades at the police. One of the suspects gets shot multiple times and also receives shrapnel from the explosives. One policemen is also shot. The wounded suspects dies on the way to the hospital. The officer is seriously wounded. There is some video and a photo of the intense shoot out.

The second suspect flees in the car.

Police puts Watertown under lockdown and started searching houses in the area. Public transport in Boston is shut down.

At 6:30am some black sedan is stopped by police at Charles Circle in Boston. Lots of police is send there though it is unclear what happened.

The fleeing suspect is now identified as Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev (this Djohar Tsarnaev?), aged 19, who has been living with his brother and sister in Cambridge, Mass. for several years. His dead brother Tamerlan Tsarnaev had a youtube channel. The last channel he subscribed to is titled "Allah is the One". He also links to several AQ or Jihadist videos. That does not mean that we know why these folks did what they did.

Update 8:00am

All of Boston is now ordered under lockdown. People are supposed to stay home. All public traffic, including taxis, has been shut down.

Tamerlan Tasarnaev, photographed as Will Box For Passport, has been in the U.S. for at least 5 years. On one of the photos caption he is quoted: "I don't have a single American friend, I don't understand them." He wanted to learn how to fake IDs.

In 2011 Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev received a Cambridge city scholarship.

Police radio traffic just warning extreme caution when approaching subject. Possible "suicide vest".

Update 8:55am

SWAT teams are currently surrounding a few houses in Watertown.

Update 2:00 pm

Search in Watertown ongoing but the guy probably got away.

The WSJ has a pretty good fact collection about the brothers.

There is still no proof that these guys were the marathon bombers. It seems likely but not more.

There is still no known motive, just speculations about motives.

Everyone who knew the brothers thinks it is impossible for them to do such a thing.

What is the religion of the owner of the neglected fertilizer factory that blew up in Texas?

According to CNN the U.S. is sending headquarter elements of the 1st Armored Division to Jordan. These could become the first elements of a full taskforce.

For now those are only 200 soldiers. But unlike the Special Forces the U.S. already deployed to Jordon to train Syrian insurgents these are not for immediate operations. A headquarter element of a division is for planing the eventual deployment of bigger parts of that division. The 1st Armored has four fighting plus one aviation brigade. Altogether more than 15,000 soldiers.

For now I believe this to be a precautionary measure as well as a part of psychological warfare. I do not expect further troops to deploy. The situation on the ground is extremely complex and should the U.S. venture into Syria it surely would be in for another Iraq like quagmire.

Obama is unlikely to want to have such a quagmire as his legacy.

In 2002 the Bush administration orchestered a coup against the Venezuelan president Chavez. After the coup failed the U.S. embassy in Caracas continued to plot against the Venezuelan government. A cable sent by the U.S. ambassador was published by Wikileaks:

Dispatched in November of 2006 by Brownfield — now an Assistant Secretary of State — the document outlined his embassy’s five core objectives in Venezuela since 2004, which included: “penetrating Chavez’ political base,” “dividing Chavismo,” “protecting vital US business” and “isolating Chavez internationally.”

Chavez did win the 2012 election but died soon afterwards. Last weekend his successor Nicolas Maduro was elected as new president though with much less an advantage than polls had predicted. There are some genuine reasons for the relative tight result, won by some 250,000 votes, but there is no sound reason to suspect fraud.

But fraud is what the losing U.S. supported candidate for president Henrique Capriles Radonski alleges and he send his followers into the the street to demand a recount. This, predictably, led to riots with now at least seven people killed.

Doubting election results without evidence of fraud, demanding recounts, riots in the street are all signs of a typical “color revolution” like attempt to overthrow a legal government. As the U.S. has in the past actively supported a coup against Chavez and, even after that failed, worked hard to create an anti-Chavismo “civil society” with the aim to overthrow Chavez, we can assume that similar schemes are behind the current disturbances.

The U.S. is, predictably, intervening, and supports the oppositions demand:

“Given the tightness of the result – around 1 percent of the votes cast separate the candidates – the opposition candidate and at least one member of the electoral council have called for a 100 percent audit of the results,” White House spokesman Jay Carney told a news briefing.

According to the lasted results with 99% of the votes counted the candidates are separated by 1.77%, not 1% as the White House claims. By demanding a “100% audit” of the results the U.S. just makes sure that this demand will never be fulfilled and creates a new propaganda claim of “fraudulent elections” for which there is zero evidence.

Nicolas Maduro has won and he and his followers will now have to work hard to not fall in this coup attempt. As the legal winner he can and should use the force of the government to defend the result. At the same time he will have to recognize that the aims of Chavez’s revolution have not yet been achieved and that there is still much work to do to get the economy back on a sound footing and to win back those voters that Chavez could count on but Maduro failed to win.

A massive earthquake with an 8.0 7.8 magnitude hit Iran near the border to Pakistan. The tremor was felt from Dubai to Delhi. Reports show the quake at 15.2 kilometers (9.2 miles) depth 86km (53mi) east south east of Khash (population  57,000), Iran. The U.S. geographic service has changed the deapth estimate to 82.0km (51.0mi) which is likely less damaging.

In 1978 a similar strong quake in the general area killed about 15,000 people. The current impact estimate predicts "severe exposure" with "moderate/heavy damage" for over 340,000 people. The impact estimate was lowered, probably because of the new depth estimate. The immediate area is sparsely populated with mostly nomads living in tents. Iranian officials expect "hundreds of dead". Phonelines between Tehran, where the quake was not felt, and Zahedan, a 550,000  people city about 150 km from the quake center, are down.

AlJazeerah reports 1,000 buildings in Pakistan (often mudstructures) were destroyed by the quake.

According to Russia Today no damage was done to the Busher nuclear reactor which is operated by a Russian and Iranian crew.

The damage and loss of live now seem to be much less than was feared in the first hour after the quake occured.

Last Update (11:00am): Iranian authorities now says "Zero death, only a few wounded". That is amazing for a quake of this size. It will be interesting to read how geologists will explain this event.

Not really in the news:

At least 75 Iraqis were killed and 356 more were wounded
in a series of attacks across the country. Only the far south and Iraqi Kurdistan
were spared. Many of the attacks were
apparently coordinated
and occurred at about the same time this morning. They also came a few days ahead of local elections in most provinces.
Nineva and Anbar province, both heavily Sunni, had their elections postponed
by the Shi’ite-led government.

In Baghdad, the bombings left 30
dead and 92 wounded. Among them, a blast in the Kamaliya
neighborhood left four
dead and 13 injured; security forces then fired
into the air to disperse crowds. Near the airport a pair of bombs killed
three people and wounded 16 more. Four
people were killed and 15 more were wounded in a bombing at a market and
bus station in Umm al-Maalif. In
Karrada, another bomb left two
dead and 15 injured. A car bomb in Shurta killed
two people and wounded nine more. A roadside bomb wounded
five policemen in Baladiyat. Two
people were killed and nine more were wounded in a blast in Habibiya.

In Kirkuk, at least nine
people were killed and 79 more were wounded in a string of six car
bombings. The downtown bombs exploded
in three different ethnic neighborhoods, suggesting that no particular group
was targeted. Those explosions took place in Arab, Kurdish, and Turkmen
neighborhoods. The other three blasts hit neighborhoods outside of the city.
One bombing targeted
the home of a Shi’ite politician. Also, gunmen wounded
a doctor last night.

Explosions in Tuz Khormato left six
dead and 67 wounded.

In Mosul, gunmen killed
a civilian. Two
people were wounded in roadside bombings. Gunmen killed a
married couple. Security forces killed a
bomber. Another blast left no
casualties. A soldier
was killed in a clash. Three
policemen were wounded in a bomb blast.

In Falluja, a suicide
car bomber killed two policemen and wounded six more at a checkpoint. A civilian
was shot dead. A sticky bomb killed
two civilians. Another bomb south of the city left no
casualties.

A car bomb in Mussayab killed
four people and wounded 13 more.

Four
people were killed and three more were wounded in a Tikrit bombing
at political office. Another bombing left 13
policemen wounded.

In Nasariya, a car bomb killed
two people and wounded 14 more.

A policeman
was killed in Buhriz when a sticky bomb exploded.

Near Ramadi, a bomb targeting a Sunni cleric and
leader of anti-government protests killed
two bodyguards and wounded
at least one more. His
cousin was killed in a sticky bomb blast in Falluja.

A policeman
was shot dead in Tarmiya.

A bomb in Khalis killed
one child and wounded eight more.

Nineteen
people were wounded in bombings in Babil province.

In Dowr, 13
people were wounded in a blast there.

Bombs wounded
seven people at a political candidate’s home in Salah ad Din province.

In Muqdadiya, a car bomb wounded
seven people.

In Tal Abta, a blast killed
a policeman and wounded two more.

In Baquba, two policemen were wounded during a
bombing. Three
people were wounded in a blast.

Gunmen in Sabeen killed a
captain and wounded two soldiers.

A young
man was gunned down in Shirqat.

On a rural road in Bani Saad, a bomb wounded
a civilian.

News:

Two explosions in Boston killed three and wounded at least 144.

May all the dead rest in peace and best wishes to all the wounded.

The current offense of the Syrian army produced another success:

Syrian government troops have broken through a six-month opposition blockade in northern Syria and are now fighting to recapture a vital highway, opposition and state media said on Monday.

…
[Rami Abdelrahman, head of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights,] counted more than 50 fighters dead or missing from the battle on Sunday. The army advance was not yet a decisive victory but could reopen battlefields in the north where opposition fighters had the advantage, he said.

“We will see now what happens but if the opposition can push back the regime, they can avoid a major setback. If the regime is able to hold this opening it could take back the whole road and that will have major strategic consequences,” he said.

This comes on top of other successes in the southern suburbs of Damascus and near the Jordan border.

The foreign supported insurgents have stretched their forces. They have tried to occupy too many areas and places. They also had heavy losses. That leaves them vulnerable to concentrated actions by Syrian government troops.

Meanwhile the U.S. tries to put the Jihadis genie back into the bottle. It will find that only the Syrian government is able to do that:

Turkey, which has been focused on seeing Assad’s downfall, allegedly is of the opinion that al-Nusra is an effective fighter against Assad and that Ankara can control this radical Islamic group.

“Any means necessary for Assad to go, even if it means through al-Nusra, appears to be valid for Turkey. But this is a very short-sighted view,” the Western intelligence sources believe.

In his third visit to Turkey in two months due to take place on April 20, US Secretary of State Kerry will try to convince both Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu that allowing al-Nusra to gain a lead position in Syria is unwise.

It will need real heavy pressure from Kerry to achieve a change in the Turkish support for the Jihadis. Erdogan, and especially Davutoglu, have bet too much on an Assad fall. I doubt that the U.S. is yet willing to press enough to achieve a change in the Turkish position. But that time will come. It is harder and harder to explain to the public why the “west” is supporting the Jihadists in Syria when it is fighting them in other countries.

Jabhat al-Nusra’s recent open pledge of allegiance to Al Qaida was a win for the Syrian government. It will hinder some material support for the opposition. It is also a moral boost for its own troops. They know they are justified in their fight. Together with building military success such a moral boost can be decisive.

While the context of this statement is about “human rights” in Africa, it rings true as a general description of general U.S. foreign policy:

“The countries that cooperate with us get at least a free pass,” acknowledged a senior U.S. official who specializes in Africa but spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid retribution. “Whereas other countries that don’t cooperate, we ream them as best we can.”

Not remarkable in itself, but remarkable that someone admits it.