On yesterday Israel's attack on Syria Al Akhbar writes:
The Israelis were also betting that Syria will not respond, as was the case with previous attacks, like the one against a “nuclear” facility in Deir Ezzor in 2007.
But the circumstances are different this time on a number of levels. At present, a lack of response on the part of Syria means that it is accepting Israel’s terms, something that Damascus may view as intolerable in the current situation.
If there is no response from Damascus Israel will have set an example for Turkey and others that they can directly the Syrian government without fear of reprisal.
I don't think that Syria can let that happen. There is too much at risk. It will have to respond to Israel's attack. It may be willing to do so. Unlike 2007 when Syria did not acknowledge the Israeli attack it now immediately published it and has thereby giving itself some right to respond.
But how?
This raises a number of questions as to how Syria will respond: Will it fire back openly, or will it carry out some sort of covert operation? Will it target the Zionist state directly or attack its interests abroad? And will it be done in such a way as to make an Israeli response inevitable, thus sparking a regional war?
My best guesses:
- The response will be a covert operation,
- it will target Israel directly and most likely strike at a military or political target,
- the level of retaliation will be more or less proportional to the attack and without leaving a calling card thereby avoiding an Israeli response.
But can Syria really conduct such an operation on its own or will it need help from others?