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Some Links
As I am busy with a business deadline I have little time to read and post.
So just a few links:
1. Nir Rosen gave a talk the London School of Economics about his recent time in Syria. He has some interesting insights but seems to play down the jihadists problem. Nir Rosen talk – Syria: From Rebellion to Civil War (75 min)
2. Al Akhbar is publishing diplomatic papers related to Syria liberated from the Qatari government. There are several interesting points in them I expect to write about. For now just the link to the first batch.
3. Everyone should read the Leveretts at Going to Tehran. The latest: Obama and the (Mis)management of Imperial Decline
4. Cameron gives in to some wingnuts in his party and demands more special treating for Britain in the European Union. He wants Britain to hold an ‘in or out’ referendum by 2017. This is stupid on many levels. Cameron has no leverage. Should the Brexit occur about every continental European would say “good riddance”. By setting the date in 2017 Cameron guarantees that there will be no new or further international business investment in Britain until that date because the framework under which such business would run is not clear. Would that be EU rules or not? Will they have to pay custom when exporting to EU countries? There are sound reason to change many EU rules. But is obviously not the way to achieve that. The guy and his party are a real embarrassment.
5. Pretty amazing. A racist who defends his racial superiority: Jews DO control the media
And then they came to America, the one place that ever really let them have as much power as they wanted, and suddenly they’re taking over. Please don’t tell me that any other group in the world has ever done that. Only the Jews. And we’ve done it before. That’s why the Jews were enslaved in Egypt. We were too successful. Go look at the Torah — it’s right there. And we did it in Germany too.
2) A couple of interesting points from the Qatar leaks:
Memo 1 (6/12, Mursi and Qatar PM), whether Obama has made commitments to Qatar about deeper involvement in Syria:
…We are sincere to begin work and our trust increased following your speech in Tehran. Everyone praised it and, yesterday, in the Arab League meeting, positions changed.
Mursi: There is no room for the word reform. He must leave.
Hamad: We suggested to him that he leaves. Really, it was a powerful speech.
Mursi: How could the Saudi King surprise us with the initiative of dialogue between confessions, while we had agreed about the Syrian issue.
Hamad: Us too. We had met him a day earlier and nobody mentioned it.
Mursi: We want to take a serious position.
Hamad: I think everything will change after the US and German elections. If Obama returns, and it does not matter if he waits till January for his new term. He can do it automatically and he has made commitments.
Mursi: If the Iranians get involved in solving the issue in Syria, they will win and become closer to Turkey and the Gulf.
memo #2 (3/11, Davutoglu and Qatar PM), the PM represents that Clinton was very active in mustering support for a no-fly zone — and all that entailed:
Davutoğlu: The situation in the region is moving fast. We should be coordinating.
Hamad: We are trying to push the [UN] Security Council to do something.
Davutoğlu: Gaddafi must leave and he will leave. Now he is winning the battle and we are worried. We tried to pressure him to leave Syria, but he began recruiting mercenaries from Sudan and Egypt. The West has different positions. France is of one opinion, but Europe has another, also the Americans.
Hamad: The US secretary of state called me three times and might call back today. We asked the Arab League to issue a decision for a no-fly zone over Libya. Syria is against and Yemen is not decided.
Davutoğlu: Why does Syria oppose?
Hamad: I don’t know.
Davutoğlu: I was surprised when the Syrians said they did not receive a message from you [concerning Lebanon].
Hamad: This is not true. We sent three copies.
Davutoğlu: I told the Syrians, why do you ask us to travel to Lebanon, while you had already made up your minds.
Hamad: I think they will lose if they continue to lie to their friends. What is happening now in Libya cannot be accepted. The Security Council must be pressured to impose a no-fly zone.
memo #3 (10/11, Davutoglu and Qatar Crown Prince), raises a few interesting points, whether Turkey worked closely with Syria in 2006 when the Bush administration was strongly targeting it for regime change, whether Hamas was being used early on by the MB in Syria against Assad rather than maintaining the neutrality Palestinians had committed to, whether Turkey really wants NATO’s Patriots on its border and whether Al Jazeera was pressured not only about reporting negatively about Syria, but also about representing the other actors more favorably (also about whether Turkey, a democracy, is more willing for Bashar to negotiate and finish out his term in 2014 than Qatar is):
His Highness the Crown Prince: We will be sending a message to Bashar. He had said that he was going to talk to opposition. I believe that we have to send him a message that if he doesn’t continue down that road, the matter will take its course all the way to the Security Council.
His Excellency the Minister of Foreign Affairs: The killing must stop and the army must be pulled out of the cities, in addition to amending Article 8 and conducting elections after negotiating with the opposition.
His Highness the Crown Prince: He is not taking the matter seriously; he wants to destroy the whole region. Iran has changed its tone. I spoke to Burhan Ghalioun and he values Turkey’s role. I told him that our relations with Turkey are good and whatever Turkey decides, we are with them. We will let you know what happens.
The Guest: Coordination between us is important. Bashar is relying on two things and he has a lot of problems. He thinks that Russia and China are with him, and he thinks he can play the Russian and Chinese card with the West.
We are a member of NATO and we do not want foreign intervention. As Muslims, Arabs and Turks, we do not want Western intervention in Syria. We helped him break his isolation in 2006, when he was isolated by the West. We offered him a 14-point plan and we discussed everything with him. We know him and his regime very well. Our ambassador in Syria was with me, and Bouthaina Shaaban was present. He agreed to pull the army out of Hama, Homs, Daraa, and the rest of the cities, issue a new media law, allow the foreign press to enter the country, amend Article 8 of the constitution, hold elections, […] and sit down with the opposition – he agreed to all this.
And after two days he attacked the mosques, launched an offensive on Latakia, killing people […] Our plan was to back him if he implemented the plan. He pulled out of Hama as our ambassador watched on, only to return and attack it. Our ambassador notified us in a secret letter that they are in the process of destroying Hama. He was deceiving us.
When he attacked Latakia, I called him and asked him how is it that you are destroying the mosques, we will not remain quiet over it. I told him that the president must make his speech according to the agreement. But Muallem asked us to wait. I told him that his integrity was at risk. Muallem called me and told me that the president will give a speech in a week. And I said no and we clarified our position. We have not had contact with them since last August 14.
In Libya the situation was different. There, the Arab League gave Western intervention legitimacy. We in Turkey do not want Western or NATO intervention, despite the fact that we are a member of NATO. Foreign intervention in Syria will cause problems in Lebanon and Iran, and Hamas is able to act individually against him – we support the opposition and he is afraid of it. In 2006, we held joint military exercises and we supported him economically, but now he has to be isolated economically and he is bankrupt. We spoke to Iran and they told us to give him a few months time. We told them: try if you can. Salehi is a good man.
His Highness the Crown Prince: We should use that.
The Guest: We want to send a message to the Russians and the Chinese, and the Arabs must talk to the two countries to confirm to them that we do not want another Libya situation and we must convince them not to support Bashar – he cannot be given the opportunity to rule until 2014, so that he can get rid of the opposition.
His Highness the Crown Prince: He must stop the violence today before tomorrow. You have done all you can but there has to be Arab support and this has to be the Arab message to him.
The Guest: Yes, this is the right message and he cannot be given any more time. We must act now. What is the position of Algeria, are they against the revolution?
His Highness the Crown Prince: It will change its position and they will back the revolution.
The Guest: We are a member of NATO and we do not want foreign intervention. As Muslims, Arabs and Turks, we do not want Western intervention in Syria. What is the decision that will be taken if the Syrian president does not abide by the Arab initiative?
His Highness the Crown Prince: I cannot say now.
The Guest: It is easy to win the war on the ground, but the rebuilding will be difficult, so will the situation in Syria.
His Highness the Crown Prince: The Turkish vice defense minister is here.
The Guest: I will be visiting Jordan and will meet with the King tomorrow. Is Khaled Meshal in Damascus? Can he come to Doha? If such a step is sensitive for him, there is no need. There is a matter I wanted to speak to your highness about. Al-Jazeera is directing criticism against our position and this is not good.
His Highness the Crown Prince: Our relation with you is bigger than al-Jazeera and you can speak to Hamad bin Jassem, and we will talk to him about the issue.
Posted by: Rusty Pipes | Jan 25 2013 2:20 utc | 35
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