Look who blinks:

Syria's opposition chief Moaz al-Khatib said on Wednesday he is ready for dialogue with officials of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, subject to conditions including that some 160,000 detainees are released.

"I announce I am ready for direct discussions with representatives of the Syrian regime in Cairo, Tunis or Istanbul," Mr Khatib said via his Facebook page, citing as another condition that passports for exiled citizens be renewed in embassies abroad.

Missing is the condition that many "western" governments and their puppet Syrian opposition had earlier set for talks. There is no longer the demand that Bashar al-Assad has to leave before any negotiations can take place.

It is likely that many of the exile Syrian opposition will reject these negotiations and further split their coalition.

I expect that the Syrian government will take up this offer but it will take time for the process to start. There obviously will be no release of opposition fighters from prison before negotiations start. When they start al-Khatib and his bosses in Washington will have little to offer. The fighters on the ground are not under the command of the exile opposition. They will care little about what he negotiates.

Still this offer will have effects. On the ground it will diminish the motivation of some of the fighters. It will also have effects on those that finance and support the opposition fighters. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will have to treat more carefully now as al-Khatib negotiation offer implies that Washington wants the conflict to end. Whoever stands in the way will have to watch out.

Chuck Spinney is spot on here. U.S. foreign policy always flows from domestic policies which again are determined by bribes and some cultural quirks. Nothing good can come from such a construct:

American politics continues to repeat the practice of buying domestic power by inflicting misery and destruction on third world nations. In my view, Obama’s own contribution to statecraft in this regard has been his ability to lobotomize almost the entire Democratic base. The same people who were screaming about Bush’s illegal wars, unconstitutional surveillance, lack of due process, etc., are now silent or singing Obama’s greatness.

…
The Republican party, with a few exceptions, is so visibly crazy that they have become an indispensable foil that permits Obama to govern as he does. The conventional wisdom of liberals is that Obama’s heart is in the right place, but he is conflict averse and therefore must govern as a centrist (really a center-rightist), because the GOP is crazy and intransigent. But in reality, Obama actually is a center-rightist who uses his image as a diffident compromiser as a cloak to hide his pro-corporatocracy given aways. And because most people prefer center-right governance to out-and-out fascism, the GOP plays an essential role as a “bad cop” to the center-right “good cop,” which is why Democrats went along with Obama’s plan to enshrine the Bush tax cuts for the bottom 99.3%, and a huge giveaway on the estate tax, in perpetuity. My fear is that, in the same way, Democrats will go along with Obama’s inflated defense budgets and his permanent conflict foreign policy.

I recommend the whole piece: The Afghan Endgame…and Where It Will Lead

The "nuclear Iran" scare is being laid to rest for now.

Israel: Iran slowing nuclear program, won’t have bomb before 2015

Intelligence briefings given to McClatchy over the last two months have confirmed that various officials across Israel’s military and political echelons now think it’s unrealistic that Iran could develop a nuclear weapons arsenal before 2015. Others pushed the date back even further, to the winter of 2016.

…
"We can’t attribute the delays in Iran’s nuclear program to accidents and sabotage alone," he said. "There has not been the run towards a nuclear bomb that some people feared. There is a deliberate slowing on their end."

There is only a "slowing" of Iran's nuclear program if one had assumed that Iran was going for a bomb. It wasn't and isn't.

Moving the date Iran could have a bomb has been done since about 1982. It will continue to be done for years to come.

And while the "nuclear Iran" scare is for now buried it will certainly be revived when there is again need to divert attention from Israel's misdeeds.

A question to David D. Kirkpatrick and his editors at the New York Times.

You write:

It was unclear how the clashes began, but the police were soon firing heavy volleys of tear gas into the funeral march. The gas attacks caused the pallbearers to drop coffins, many witnesses said, and the bodies spilled into the streets, a serious indignity here.

In which country is it not considered an indignity when, during a funeral, coffins get dropped and the dead bodies spilled into the street? The United States?

The current clashes in Egypt may lead to the reintroduction of emergency rules. The Muslim Brotherhood might be tempted to use these rules not only to against the protests from the left but also to act against its Salafi competition to the right. That again may well lead to an armed Jihadist insurgency which the Egyptian state would have trouble to suppress.

On January 25 the second anniversary of the begin of the unfinished Egyptian revolution was celebrated with renewed clashes at Cairo's Tahrir square. Various groups were involved with all of them seemingly opposed to the ruling Muslim Brotherhood. A "black block" appeared, a previously unknown phenomenon in Egypt. It is not known who is behind these people, who their leaders are and what the block's purpose is supposed to be. Usually such blocks, by attacking state organs, manage to delegitimatize any civil demonstration they join.

Another block involved in the protest were the rather radical supporters, the Ultras, of Cairo's soccer club al-Ahly. These never want to miss a fight with supporters of a competing club or the police.

Likely to stave off further fights with the al-Ahly supporters a court in Cairo yesterday announced a ruling in the case of a riot and panic in the Port Said football stadium on February 1 2012. In that riot followers of the Port Said team attacked players and fans of the al-Ahly team. The police did not intervene. A panic occurred and many al-Ahly fans got killed while trying to leave the locked stands. A total of 79 people died. CNN reported at that time:

Cont. reading: Egypt: Emergency Rule Might Start A Salafist Revolution

There seems to be some recognition that the attack on Syria is failing:

France said on Thursday there were no signs that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is about to be overthrown, something Paris has been saying for months was just over the horizon.
…
Fabius told RFI radio in December "the end is nearing" for Assad. But on Thursday, he said international mediation and discussions about the crisis that began in March 2011 were not getting anywhere. "There are no recent positive signs," he said.

This is definitely a change in the French governments mind. The attack on Mali may be the reason for that. The public can hardly be deceived about the fact that the Jihadists France is trying to fight in Mali are the same ilk that Bashar Assad is fighting against. There is only so much hypocrisy that can be covered up.

Peter Lee believes that the Saudis are the ones that are still lobbying against a negotiated solution:

The United States and its European allies, it appears, would welcome some kind of negotiated settlement as long as Western face is saved by Assad stepping down. Turkey, which is facing a growing Kurdish calamity and has probably had a bellyful of its Syrian adventurism, would probably agree. And, as noted above, Qatar has a post-Assad electoral agenda based on its M[uslim] B[rotherhood] assets.

However, Prince Saud has drawn the line in the sand, indicating that Saudi Arabia is optimistic about a scenario of total regime collapse—and a subsequent political endgame in which Saudi allies occupy a privileged and protected position in the new power structure instead of getting massacred by a tag team of threatened Sunni citizens and the newly “democratic” Syrian army.

I have a different read of the Saudi position.

Cont. reading: Position Changes On Syria

As I am busy with a business deadline I have little time to read and post.

So just a few links:

1. Nir Rosen gave a talk the London School of Economics about his recent time in Syria. He has some interesting insights but seems to play down the jihadists problem. Nir Rosen talk – Syria: From Rebellion to Civil War (75 min)

2. Al Akhbar is publishing diplomatic papers related to Syria liberated from the Qatari government. There are several interesting points in them I expect to write about. For now just the link to the first batch.

3. Everyone should read the Leveretts at Going to Tehran. The latest: Obama and the (Mis)management of Imperial Decline

4. Cameron gives in to some wingnuts in his party and demands more special treating for Britain in the European Union. He wants Britain to hold an ‘in or out’ referendum by 2017. This is stupid on many levels. Cameron has no leverage. Should the Brexit occur about every continental European would say “good riddance”. By setting the date in 2017 Cameron guarantees that there will be no new or further international business investment in Britain until that date because the framework under which such business would run is not clear. Would that be EU rules or not? Will they have to pay custom when exporting to EU countries? There are sound reason to change many EU rules. But is obviously not the way to achieve that. The guy and his party are a real embarrassment.

5. Pretty amazing. A racist who defends his racial superiority: Jews DO control the media

And then they came to America, the one place that ever really let them have as much power as they wanted, and suddenly they’re taking over. Please don’t tell me that any other group in the world has ever done that. Only the Jews. And we’ve done it before. That’s why the Jews were enslaved in Egypt. We were too successful. Go look at the Torah — it’s right there. And we did it in Germany too.

To pick out just one of them:

Jan 21- President Barack Obama's 2013 inaugural address

A decade of war is now ending.

Jan 21 – US Drone Strike In Yemen Kills 2 Alleged Al Qaeda Militants, Wounds Others

Jan 20 – U.S. drone strike kills four Qaeda militants in Yemen: sources

Jan 19 –
Yemen Drone Strikes: Suspected U.S. Attack Kills At Least 8

The "opposition" in Syria is in a bit of difficulty:

Syrian Kurds urged the opposition on Saturday to halt a siege against them by Islamist rebels, as the UN condemned the killing of dozens of children across the country over the past week.

The Kurdish National Council, a pro-opposition umbrella group of Syrian Kurdish parties, condemned what it said was an ongoing assault "against unarmed civilians" by jihadist insurgents on the northern town of Ras al-Ain.

It said the rebels, who came across the border from Turkey, were shelling the town indiscriminately, and called on the main opposition National Coalition and the Free Syrian Army to "pressure these militants to stop this criminal war which is detrimental to the Syrian revolution."

From an earlier report:

Fighters from radical groups Al-Nusra Front and Ghuraba al-Sham battled Kurdish militiamen a day after launching a new assault on the border town. A Kurdish resident of Ras al-Ain, who said he opposed al-Assad’s regime, said the jihadists crossed the Turkish border with three tanks into Ras al-Ain on Jan. 17.

This is not a small gang infiltrating over the green border but a larger infantry formations accompanied by tanks passing at the normal border crosspoint. It is impossible that the Turkish guards at that border crossing missed these.

Turkey is now obviously using the jihadist Nusra Front to fight Kurds in Syria, even those Kurds that are tied to the Syrian opposition. On three days last week it was also bombing Kurds in Iraq.

Do the Kurds that live in Turkey really still believe that they can make peace with the Erdogan government while that kills their brethren in Iraq and Syria? I do expect renewed Kurdish attacks in Turkey as soon as the snow melts in the south eastern Anatolian highlands.

What country is the actual target of the French intervention in Mali? There isn't much to win in that country. While their might be some oil and Uranium somewhere in the ground nothing is yet developed. Next door though there is much more to win like fully developed gas and oil fields.

The people in Algeria seem to think it is their country that is the target and they are fuming that their government allowed French overflights. This press review quotes several opinions, written befor the current hostage crisis, that express these concerns. One Laid Seraghni opines:

The author argues that the intervention will ‘affect and destablise all the countries in the Sahel region, including Algeria, whose borders are so great that the state can not counter the infiltration of terrorist groups’. ‘According to him,’ Le Temps writes, ‘this intervention ‘would force Algeria to consider the military option to protect its borders and the Algerian population in the region of Kidal (Mali). The Algerian army will face the rebels of Ansar Eddine, AQIM and MUJAO’. Additionally, the intervention will leave Algeria ‘surrounded by the French army operating Libya, Ivory Coast, Niger, Mauritania, Chad and Mali’. The article argues that Algeria is being ‘targeted by France,’ using Seraghni’s piece as backup: ‘Since colonization, Algeria has always claimed its independence and sovereignty. The Algerian revolution of 1957, derailed the plan to create an independent Tuareg state controlled by the colonial power. Algeria refuses to admit French bases on its territory, whose primary mission is to monitor and pressure the Algerian state’. Seraghni argues that ‘Anyone who follows relations between Algeria and France knows that it is not Mali which raises the attention of French power, but Algeria.’ The author accuses French elites of having ‘never forgiven the independence of Algeria, which paved the way for the decolonization of Africa’ concluding by reminding readers to recall ‘the phrase of Charles de Gaulle who declared that ‘France has no friends, she has only interests.’

Political science professor Ahmed Adimi has similar concerns and this theory:

It was France that was behind the creation of the movement for the Azawad and I speak of course of the political organization and not of the people of Azawad who have rights as a community. The French knew that their intervention in Libya would lead to a return of the pro-Qaddafi military Tuareg to Mali. They also planned the release of Libyan arms stockpiles across the Sahel band. The project is to transform the region into a new Afghanistan, the result of long term planning.’

I admit that I have still much to learn about the extremely complicate relations (a long and recommended read) between governments, security forces, smugglers, jihadis and the various tribal and ethnic  populations in the dirt poor area. But there are indeed some signs that outer forces, mostly the U.S. and the French, have – sometimes competing – designs for the wider area of which the rather rich Algeria is a part.

The Pentagon is pushing for more war and is sending troops to "train" those African countries that are supposed to invade Mali. As South America and other regions can tell U.S. trained troops often turn out to be especially brutal and often independent of civilian control. Some of the Malian troops the U.S. trained ended up changing sides. One officer, trained in the U.S. on at least four occasions, overthrew his government.

Algeria has been very reluctant, despite several high visits from Secretary of State Clinton, to cooperate and to take up any role in the fight.

The hostage takers that attacked an oil installation in Algeria came from Libya, not from Mali. Could they, just like the Libyan gangs in Syria who were supported by 25 CIA officers in Benghazi, be operating on some special outside support and advice? Maybe in the hope that Algeria would cry uncle and scream for outside help?

If so it did not work out as planned. The Algerians, as usual, took on the issue themselves and made clear that negotiations with the hostage takers were out of question. They solved the situation by force.

The U.S. and others are miffed about that:

Algeria’s unilateral decision to attack kidnappers at a natural gas plant — while shunning outside help, imposing a virtual information blackout and disregarding international pleas for caution — has dampened hopes that it might cooperate militarily in Mali, U.S. officials said. The crisis has strained ties between Algiers and Washington and increased doubts about whether Algeria can be relied upon to work regionally to dismantle al-Qaeda’s franchise in North Africa.

Isn't the same said about Pakistan? Doesn't that sounds like a threat?

I would not be surprised when, within a few month, we see France and the U.S. cheer leading those who are now Al-Qaeda in Mali as freedom fighters against a "brutal Algerian regime."

Reuters: Massacre of over 100 reported in Syria’s Homs

More than 100 people were shot, stabbed or possibly burned to death by government forces in the Syrian city of Homs, a monitoring group said on Thursday, and fierce fighting raged across the country.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said women and children were among the 106 people killed by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad forces who stormed Basatin al-Hasawiya, a poor district on the edge of Homs, on Tuesday.

…
Reuters cannot independently confirm reports due to reporting restrictions in Syria.

That last sentence is nonsense and is Reuters’ poor self-serving excuse for lazyness and to publish propaganda.

Bill Neely (@billneelyitv) is international editor for ITV News. He is currently in Syria on a legit government visa and reports from Homs. Here are his recent tweets:

9:08 AM – 17 Jan 13

It is clear many people died in the poor farming community at the edge of #Homs. The regime & opposition both say dozens wr killed.

9:10 AM – 17 Jan 13

Local men I talked to put the number of those killed in #Huwaisa at around 30,including women & at least five children.I saw blood & remains

9:25 AM – 17 Jan 13

There has clearly been mass killing in #Huwaisa.It’s NOT clear who did this-opposition blames regime frces,local civs blame Jabhat al Nusra

9:35 AM – 17 Jan 13

Local men in #Huwaisa described rebels who came 2 area 2 attack army;some in “black uniforms”,some wearing headbands with Jihadi slogans

9:36 AM – 17 Jan 13

Many local men in #Huwaisa cried as they met e’other-1 lost 2 brothers,another his wife & sister.They said rebels wr different-not FSA

Who will know better who killed the people in Huwaisa? The local people on the ground or Reuters propaganda source which sits somewhere in Britain?

As the last one is full …

(… and as I have no idea what to write about)

News & views …

France says Mali victory 'will be swift'

France strongly defended its military intervention in northern Mali yesterday, dismissing any suggestion of a long-term commitment comparable to the West's operation in Afghanistan launched in response to the attacks of September 11, 2001.

…
[France's foreign minister, Laurent Fabius,] said French strikes in Mali had succeeded in halting the insurgents' progress towards the south of the country but that the operation was designed to last only for a few weeks. "Later on, we can come as backup but we have no intention of staying forever," he said.

The "few weeks" term was also used by the Malian foreign minister:

The France-led military intervention in Mali to oust Islamist rebels from the west African country may last a few weeks, Malian Foreign Affairs Minister Tieman Hubert Coulibali said on Tuesday.

But now we get a different mission and a very undefined time table from the French president Hollande:

"As soon as there is an African force, in the coming days or weeks, that is backed by the international community and by Europe, France will not have a reason to stay in Mali," he told a news conference during a visit to the United Arab Emirates.

"We have one goal, however. To ensure that when we leave, when we end our intervention, Mali is safe, has legitimate authorities, an electoral process and there are no more terrorists threatening its territory," Hollande said.

Ten years later …

There is very little chance that Mali, in its current configuration where a restive Tuareg/Berber north has for decades tried to separate from the south, will ever be safe, have legitimate authorities, an electoral process and no "terrorists".

By announcing these new nation building aims and by increasing the troop strength to, for now, 2,500, Hollande in effect announced a never ending occupation. It is highly unlikely that the locals will put up with that.

Reuters (slightly modified): Germany could reach key point for nuclear bomb by mid-2014: U.S. experts

Germany could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for one or more nuclear bombs by mid-2014, and the United States and its allies should intensify sanctions on Berlin before that point is reached, a report by a group of U.S. nonproliferation experts said.

President Barack Obama should also clearly state that the United States will take military action to prevent Germany from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the report said.

…
The 154-page report, “U.S. Nonproliferation Strategy for the Changing World,” produced by five nonproliferation experts, was expected to be released on Monday.

“Based on the current trajectory of Germany’s nuclear program, we estimate that Germany could reach critical capability in mid-2014,” the report said.

It defined “critical capability” as the point when Germany would be able to produce enough weapon-grade uranium for one or more bombs without detection by the West.

By mid-2014, Germany would have enough time to build a secret uranium-enrichment site or significantly increase the number of centrifuges for its nuclear program, said David Albright, one of the project’s co-chairs and president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

“We don’t think there is any secret enrichment plant making significant secret uranium enrichment right now,” he told Reuters. But there is “real worry” that Germany would build such a plant, he said.

The report recommends that the United States and its allies intensify sanctions pressure on Germany prior to that point because once Berlin acquires enough weapon-grade enriched uranium it would be “far more difficult to stop the program militarily.”

…
In addition to Albright, the other project co-chairs were Mark Dubowitz, executive director of The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and others.

I agree with the report’s point that Germany could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for one or more nuclear bombs by mid-2014 if it would build a secret uranium-enrichment site.

Alas, there is no sign that Germany, or any other country, is doing such.

There are also many stupid or even criminal things David Albright could do if David Albright would. But should David Albright, or anyone else, be punished for action he could take if he would take it? Really? Where could or would this end?

With this utterly stupid report David Albright has finally laid off his “neutral” cover masks and shown his real face. Co-chairing over such nonsense with the ultra-neocon warmongers of the FDD disqualifies him from any further neutral discussion of non-proliferation issues.

In retrospect his obsession with pink tarps and tree cutting proliferation can now be seen as serious sign of a developing paranoid personality disorder. Albright is now afraid of the obvious, that someone could secretly do something nefarious if s/he would secretly do something nefarious. Albright demands that, because of the obvious “could if would”, someone should therefor be punished. If this is not a serious paranoia based on a bipolar disorder what is?

The foreign policy of France's president Hollande is confusing. First France supported Islamist in Libya to overthrow the Libyan government. These Islamist then ethnically cleanse the Tuaregs, which had worked for the Libyan army, and pushed them back into their homelands. Those Tuaregs took the Libyan army's weapons and went down to northern Mali to claim their own state.

The government of Mali could not prevent that as its army lacked equipment and support. One army officer, well trained by the United States, overthrew the government but didn't had any good idea of what to do after that had happened. Meanwhile some Algerian Islamists saw a good chance to move their operations away from Algeria where the Algerian military was quite successful in hunting them down. They moved into northern Mali to first support the Tuareg revolt but then to took over themselves.

After having helped the Libyan Islamist to overthrow the Libyan government France went on actively to support Syrian Islamist who try to overthrow the Syrian government.

But then the Islamist in northern Mali decided to take another small town and to thereby converge further south. Now suddenly such Islamist were bad and and had to be pushed back. France decided to send its military to kill these "terrorists".

But there was another problem that had to be cleared up first. Some Islamists in Somalia held a French hostage, an agent of the French secret service DGSE. An attack on Islamists in Mali would probably have had bad consequences for that officer so a urgent rescue operation was planned and executed. As usual for such French rescue missions in Africa that operation was a big failure:

Cont. reading: Hollande’s Africa Adventures

Four different stories involving Iran in some nefarious affairs were published last week. They have all one thing in common. There is actually no proof that Iran was or is involved in any of these.

On Tuesday the Financial Times ran a story about alleged Uranium in Syria which was then speculated about as having been moved to Iran. But the big issue here is that no one has ever seen the alleged 50 tons of Uranium metal Syria is said to have had and there is absolutely no proof that it ever existed. But the well known expert David Albright of the the Institute for Scary Iran Stories (formerly Institute for Scary Iraq Stories) looked at satellite pictures of some place where that Uranium was allegedly stored and found that some trees had been cut in the area. As Mark Hibbs asks:

The FT account this morning appeared to insinuate that the “gradual removal of a large orchard for no apparent reason” near Marj as-Sultan constituted suspicious behavior. Tree-cutting as a signature for nefarious nuclear activity?

Surely it must be. David Albright says so. But funny how he didn't mention that the place he suspects is, since late November, in the hand of the insurgents.

Also on Tuesday the New York Times ran a story that blames Iran for Denial of Service attacks on computer systems of several U.S. banks:

Cont. reading: It’s Blame Iran Week

… is the U.S. Navy.

Jan 10, 2013 – Navy Sub Goes Bump in the Night and Loses Its Periscope

The U. S. Navy's nuclear submarine USS Jacksonville was damaged early Thursday in the Persian Gulf when one of its two periscopes was struck by an unidentified vessel.

No one was hurt in the early morning incident and the submarine's nuclear reactor did not suffer any damage.

According to a statement from U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, the Los Angeles-class submarine "struck a vessel while operating in the Persian Gulf Jan. 10 at approximately 5 a.m. local time."

The submarine "then surfaced from periscope depth to ascertain if there was any damage to the unidentified vessel. …"

Aug 12 2012 – US Navy ship collides with oil tanker in Gulf

Cont. reading: The Real Danger In The Strait Of Hormuz …

Sep 28, 2012: There are Countries who Do Not Want to See an End to PKK Terror

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said there were countries which did not want to see an end to PKK terror.

Speaking live on private NTV and Star TV channels, Erdogan stressed that Western countries did not want to solve the problem of PKK terror.

"Germany does not want a solution. France does not want a solution," Erdogan underlined.

"These countries do not help us. Instead, they let terrorist heads live on their territory," Erdogan emphasized.

Someone decided to change that.

Jan 9, 2013: 3 Kurdish women political activists shot dead in Paris

Three Kurdish women political activists were found dead with gunshots to the head early Thursday, police in Paris said, in an unexplained act of violence that has shocked the Kurdish community.

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls told reporters in Paris the three women had been "without doubt executed" and described the killings as "totally unacceptable."

The bodies were found about 2 a.m. in the Information Center for Kurdistan in Paris, in a central district of the capital, a police representative said.

Who?

A pizza with the radius "z" and the height "a" has a volume of:

Pi_*z_*z_*a

(I am busy at work and had no time to read and write. Use as open thread.)

The Syrian president Bashar Assad held a great speech today. He talked for about one our in front of a full opera house in Damascus. The speech was interrupted by several standing ovations. At its end, when the president tried to leave the stage, he was practically mobbed by supporters trying to shake his hands.

Assad acknowledging the trouble his country is going through and renewed his offer for national reconciliation, including a new constitutional process, a referendum, new elections and a general amnesty. Meanwhile the fight against terrorism would continue.

He rejected any outer interference in Syria’s political process. Foreign help was only needed to stop the weapons and fighters coming in from the outside.

He thanked and saluted the soldiers of the Syrian army for their sacrifice. He rallied the fence sitters:

Since the attack is launched against the homeland with all its human and material components, the mindful citizen has certainly known that passivity, waiting for time or others to solve the problem is a sort of pushing the country towards abyss, and not participating in solutions is a kind of taking the homeland backwards with no progress towards overcoming what the home is going through.

In what will irk the supporters of the insurgency against Syria, Assad renewed the commitment to resistance and the Palestinian cause:

Those who placed their bets on weakening Syria to forget Golan and its occupied lands are mistaken…Golan is ours and Palestine is our cause that we won’t give up on…We will remain the supporters of resistance against the one enemy. Resistance is a culture, not individuals.

The “west” did not welcome this defiant speech and renewed calls for Assad to step down. But why should he? Military the conflict is at a stalemate but, in recent weeks, with slight and growing advantages for the Syrian army. All cities are still in the Syrian governments hands and the state institutions are still working.

The biggest problem now is the systematic looting by the foreign supported FSA of food and other necessities. The enemies of Syria have mostly given up on their aim to change its government and are instead, as first explained in September, trying to dismantle the country:

Destruction of the infrastructure, economy and social fabric of Syria is the [insurgents] and their supporters aim.

But there are also signs of an even further retreat from the original war aims. The neo-ottomans in Turkey are slowly changing their tact and the stream of weapons and money to the insurgency has somewhat deminished.

For now the most ardent supporters of a continued insurgency (last graph) and arguing against any negotiations are the “western” Zionists. But as they have little influence on the ground their support for the terrorism campaign against Syria might not matter. There is not a chance of a further “western intervention”.

They key are still the Turks without who’s support the insurgency would soon suffocate and die away. As more they become convinced that Assad will stay as sooner will they be willing to file for peace. Assad’s speech today certainly helped in that regard.

As more trouble is coming back to Turkey from the trouble it is organizing in Syria as sooner will the Turks be pressed to withdraw their support for the terrorist. Here is where some renewed initiative, be it by the Russians, Iranians or Syrians, can achieve the most.