From the Washington Post report on the U.S. drone that Iranian jets chased away with some warning shots:

The MQ-1 Predator drone returned to its base unscathed, even as the Iranian aircraft chased it away from the Islamic Republic’s borders, Pentagon spokesman George Little said Thursday, disclosing details of an incident that the Obama administration chose to keep quiet during the final stretch of the presidential campaign.

…
An Iranian Su-25 fighter jet pursued the U.S. drone as it retreated from Iranian airspace, the spokesman said.

I find it somewhat relieving that the Pentagon actually admits that its drone violated Iranian airspace. It is somewhat disturbing though that other reports do not mention this. They indeed say the opposite:

“Our aircraft was never in Iranian airspace,” Mr. Little said. “It was always flying in international airspace.”

In the DoD news briefing Little repeated that line at least four times.

So I wonder where the WaPo writer, Ernesto Londoño, picked up the "retreated from Iranian airspace" detail.

It may well be that Londoño is correct. The international borders in the area east of Kuwait are not well defined, neither on land nor at sea. The three countries have never agreed on any of them. Cyrus Safardi reminds us of an incident in 2007 when Iranians plucked a British patrol from the sea:

At the time the UK govt claimed repeatedly that the Marines had been captured inside Iraqi waters. The London Times reported, a year after the event, that the Brits had simply decided to draw their own boundary lines, without telling anyone else.

The Pentagon may be doing the same here. If the ownership of various islands and the borders between Iraq, Kuwait and Iran, especially at sea, are disputed how then can the Pentagon claim that the drone was exactly 16 miles away from Iranian territory and 4 miles away from Iran's sovereign 12 mile zone?

Iran has confirmed the incident but did not say anything about where it happened.

Some tweets I collected during the day.

Sam Dagher Wall Street Journal

#Syria opposition leader tells @malas_n US diplomats told him: Forget no-fly zone, forget mil intervention, forget US will provide u w/ arms

Andrew Hammond Reuters

#Qatar PM, #turkey FM appealed in closed sessions for #syria opposition to unite but seems only a fig-leaf 'agreement' will emerge at most

Basma Al Jazeera English

The Turkish foreigh minister just walked out of the meeting in Doha and refused to give any statement

Shadi Hammid Brookings Doha

Just bumped into someone who just left the Doha #Syria talks. He had a look of resignation. "Its a mess," he said.

Blake Hounshell Foreign Policy

It's almost like the Obama administration deliberately sabotaged its own initiative #Syria

Could that indeed be intended?

No, Hounshell gets that wrong.

Yes, the U.S. does want to kill the SNC. But that is necessary to create a viable Syrian opposition that allows for a political solution for the situation in Syria. Largely because of Libya the aim and plan of the U.S. has changed from regime change in Syria to regime-led change.

Cont. reading: Syria: From Regime Change To Regime-Led Change

Three month ago I wrote:

The U.S. public is against an open war on Syria. That is the likely reason why the Obama administration is holding back. But that reasoning may well change when the U.S. presidential election is over.

Just a few minutes after the election results were known pressure started to escalate the war on Syria:

Britain and the United States should make finding a way to solve the Syrian crisis a priority following the re-election of President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday.

“Right here in Jordan I’m hearing appalling stories of what is happening inside Syria,” Cameron told journalists at a camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan.

“…One of the first things I want to talk to Barack about is how we must do more to try and solve this crisis.”

Britain will now open direct talks with the armed insurgent groups.

Meanwhile the Russian foreign minister Lavrov claimed that the insurgents use U.S. made Stinger missiles, not Soviet era SA-7s from Libya, to down Syrian aircraft:

“We have verified information that there are more than 50 stingers in Syria now,” Lavrov told a press conference in Amman, Jordan, referring to a type of surface-to-air missile. The conference followed talks with the minister’s Jordanian counterpart, Nasser Judeh.

Lavrov reminded the press that leaders of the Free Syrian Army had many times said that it considered civilian aircraft to be legitimate targets.

Shunted by the U.S., the Syrian National Council is now trying to change its feathers:

Syria’s main opposition bloc, under US pressure to reshape into a widely representative government-in-exile, agreed on Monday to broaden its structure to accommodate 13 other groups, a spokesman said.
…
Participants “have agreed a restructuring plan and to reduce the number of (current) members of the general secretariat to accommodate 200 new members representing 13 political groups and independents,” said SNC spokesman Ahmad Kamel.

Kamel said the existing membership would be reduced from 313 to 220 to pave the way for the additional 200 members. The general secretariat will convene in its revamped form on Tuesday, he added.

The meeting is also expected to discuss an initiative by leading dissident Riad Seif, which seems to enjoy US support but has encountered reservations from some SNC members, to unite all Syrian groups opposed to Assad.

Instead of some 300 quarreling members there will now be 400 with even more diverse interests and opinions.

But there is a prize dangling in front of all these people. As Al Jazeerah correspondent Hashem Ahelbarra notes:

Riad Seif told SNC French President Francois Hollande promised him weapons if the Syrian opposition would reunite

Over the last months the insurgents have made zero military advances. They now use more and more bomb explosions and assassinations against those Syrians, likely a majority, who are not with them:

“We are planning to escalate our attacks on the areas of the government thugs,” said one member of the Jundullah Battalion, a unit of the Free Syrian Army full of Sunni Muslim fundamentalists.

The Brits are “talking” to the armed opposition, the French are promising more weapons and U.S. made Stingers are floating around. There are talks between Turkey and the U.S. to deploy Patriot missiles near the Syrian Turkish border. These could create a no-fly zone in northern Syria. All signs are still pointing to a further escalation of the war on Syria. We can expect Obama to join in that.

There is of course an alternative. Obama could tell Hollande and Cameron to stand down. He could tell Erdogan to shut down the weapon and fighter traffic between Turkey and Syria. He could read the riot act to the Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Without outside resources the insurgency in Syria would soon die down. Anyone really interested in stopping the fighting in Syria would chose this path.

There is even a convenient and real excuse to stop the intervention in Syria. The insurgents the U.S. and others supported in Libya took at least part in the killing of ambassador Stevens. But instead of using that to stop the catastrophe Obama will likely escalate in Syria which then might well end up in a Somalia and Libya like anarchy.

I am told a rather rightwing warmongerer just won the U.S. elections. Sad.

Today some of my readers will be able to vote for or against a change in the shit chain. Whatever the outcome of the election may be the taste of the end product is unlikely to change.

Let's hope that this sad and rather undemocratic show will end soon and without months of stupid legal hassle.

Yesterday the NYT reported on a preview of an Israeli TV cast:

An Israeli news channel reported Sunday night that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak asked the Israeli military in 2010 to prepare for an imminent attack on the Iranian nuclear program, but that their efforts were blocked by concerns over whether the military could do so and whether the men had the authority to give such an order.

Further down in the piece we find that the whole discussion that report is about was irrelevant:

“Eventually, at the moment of truth, the answer that was given was that, in fact, the ability did not exist,” Mr. Barak said in the clip that was shown on Sunday.

Israel simply does not have the means (nor the will) to attack Iran.

But despite reporting that fact only yesterday we today find a report by the same author, Jodi Rudoren, on the whole TV cast that is again full of "Israel will bomb Iran" scare lines.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday reiterated his willingness to attack the Iranian nuclear program without support from Washington or the world, returning to an aggressive posture that he had largely abandoned since his United Nations speech in September.

How can that be an "aggressive posture" when it is clear that it is obviously a bluff. Netanyahoo may "reiterated his willingness" to conquer Moscow but that neither gives him the ability nor is it a serious aggressive posture. The whole "Israel will bomb Iran" scare is simply a stupid stunt.

Willingness is irrelevant when one lacks the capability.

What else, but that they all happened within the last 24 hours, is common with these events?

Bombings Hit Bahrain After Government Bans Protests

A series of five bombs went off in the capital of Bahrain on Monday morning, killing two people and reminding the world that the tiny nation's quiet revolt against its royal family is far from over.

Gunshots heard at Turkish Prime Ministry

Gunshots have been heard at the Turkish Prime Ministry building in Ankara during a Cabinet meeting headed by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, daily Hürriyet reported Nov. 5.

Weapons found in biscuit boxes in Yemen: ministry

A cargo of weapons originating in Turkey was seized by Yemeni authorities on Saturday in the southern port of Aden, the defence ministry Internet website 26sep.net reported.

Saudi Arabia: al-Qaida shoots 2 guards on Yemen border; 11 militants captured

Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry says a group of 11 al-Qaida fighters has killed two border guards while trying to cross into Yemen before they themselves were captured.

Tear gas fired to disperse Kuwait protesters

Kuwaiti security forces fired tear gas to disperse a protest on Sunday by thousands of opposition supporters.

Sinai security chief sacked

Egypt’s interior minister on Sunday sacked the head of security in North Sinai, a day after an attack that killed three policeman in the restive peninsula sparked protests by their colleagues.

Militias battle in Tripoli

Fighting between two militias erupted at the building that previously housed Libya's intelligence agency in central Tripoli early Sunday, sources said.

Whatever …

For some weird reason the Guardian is selling Hillary Clinton's plans for a new Syrian group that will act as U.S.-proxy in Syria as a Qatari initiative. Clinton's plan include the scraping of the Syrian National Council (SNC) and installing a new wider based entity, the Syrian National Initiative (SNI) led by one Riad Seif. The Guardian is also claiming that this group is supposed to hold peace talks with the Syrian government. I have serious doubts that these claims are true.

West backs Qatari plan to unify Syrian opposition

Britain, the US and other western powers are backing a new attempt to create a single coherent Syrian opposition that could take part in peace talks with President Bashar al-Assad's regime or, if talks fail, provide a channel for greater military support to the rebels.

…
The Doha initiative has been organised by the Qatari government and has drawn support from the US, Britain and France. Russia, however, opposes the plan, arguing it reneges on an earlier international agreement to pursue the formation of a new government by "mutual consent" of the parties to the conflict. The leadership of the main exile opposition group, the Syrian National Council (SNC), has also criticised the plan, in which its influence will be diluted, and it is not yet clear which of the divided rebel forces inside Syria will turn up on Thursday, or whether they will agree on the common platform once they arrive in Doha.

Qatar has been the strongest supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya, Egypt and in Syria. The Syrian National Council is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. Why then would Qatar have changed those plans and create a new group with a more sidelined brotherhood? That does not sound believable to me. Indeed it was Hillary Clinton who was the first to publish that plan and she also seemed to take credit for it:

I have been constantly involved with my counterparts, both in the EU and in the Arab League, in particular with the hosts of the meeting next week in Qatar. We have recommended names and organizations that we believe should be included in any leadership structure. We’ve made it clear that the SNC can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition. They can be part of a larger opposition, but that opposition must include people from inside Syria and others who have a legitimate voice that needs to be heard.

The Guardian's claim is also contradicted by this McClatchy report from Istanbul:

Cont. reading: Confusion About The New War-On-Syria Plans

These two tweets from two policial journalists about the just released employment report  came in at the same time. These people look at the same data at the same time and come to opposite conclusions. This, I think, tells a lot about pundit discussions about various "boost" facters in the U.S. election.

They are useless.

The U.S. government seems to renew its attempt to overthrow the Syrian government by force. This will, as I wrote, likely intensify as soon as the election in the U.S. is over.

The U.S. has so far used two proxy forces to run the conflict. One is the military force in form of the so called Free Syrian Army provided via Turkey with money and weapons from Libya, Qatar and Saudi Arabia while the U.S. provides it with operational intelligence, the communication infrastructure and the media campaign. While the FSA had some success on the ground, especially in reducing Syria's air-defense, it is by now more famous for its Salafist radicalism and for mass killing its prisoners (video). It is not the force the U.S. would like to lead Syria.

The second proxy force the U.S. has been using is supposed to play the political role and to replace the Syrian government. The Syrian National Council, a hodgepodge of Syrian exiles, was thought to take this role and to develop into some exile government that could then be recognized by other states. But it turned that the SNC was neither inclusive nor united enough to put forward the political cover for the U.S. overtaking of Syria.

The U.S. has therefore now decided to throw the SNC out of the window and to create a new political proxy force that can be used instead of the SNC:

Cont. reading: Syria: U.S. Installs New Political Proxy Opposition