Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 28, 2012
Egypt: Still Time For Compromises?

Thanks for the good discussion in the previous Egypt thread. Arnold Evans, with whom I usually agree, has a different take on the situation there than I have.

When one looks at the history of this revolution it was the Brotherhood that came late to it. It was the Brotherhood that promised not to go for the Presidency and not to go for a majority of the parliament. They broke both of those and several other of their promises. They can not be trusted to do what they say.

Morsi was elected with some 51% of the 50% of the Egyptian electorate that voted. That is not what I would call a clear mandate. It is at maximum a caretaker position. But that wasn't enough for him. With the power in the parliament the MB stuffed the constitutional assembly with its own people and ignored the opposition.
Some of  yesterday's protesters had voted for Morsi but are now dissatisfied with them. I doubt that the MB and Morsi still have a majority of Egyptians behind them.

A constitution must reflect the whole of the electorate, not just the majority party. The purpose of a democratic constitution is to protect the minority from the dictatorship of the majority. But everyone but the MB and the Salafists has by now left the constitutional assembly because all their attempts for compromises and to make it inclusive were voted down.

When Morsi declared himself an incontestable pharaoh he also moved the deadline for the writing of the new constitution two month into the future. Today the MB declared that the constitution draft would be ready tonight and would be immediately put up for a vote. That is not a reasonable political process.

There were and still are much better ways to do this. After the downfall of Suharto in Indonesia the constitution was changed bit by bit in a long process. The attempt in Egypt to create a completely new one while riding on a roller coaster of political and economic upheaval is unlikely to go well.

The Egyptian president is supposed to be non-partisan. But while Morsi has officially left the Brotherhood his policies are exclusively the Brotherhood policies. Are we really to believe that this is what his voters wanted? Or did they want some figure they could trust to lead the political process to bring Egypt forward towards a stable state?

The alternative to Morsi is not the return of a dictatorial SCAF. Neither the U.S. nor the military believe that that could be done without igniting a civil war. (Thanks to Libya the Brotherhood cells are by now well armed.) The alternative to a partisan Morsi is an inclusive Morsi.

As Nathan Brown writes:

[W]hile the crisis is not fully a product of the actors’ intentions, Egyptians will not find a path forward unless their leaders find within themselves an intention to resolve their differences through compromise. The constitutional process is badly broken, but it can still be repaired.

The opposition can find a set of demands that is not predicated on denying Islamists the fruits of electoral victory or bringing the president down. The president can back down on parts of last week’s dictatorial moves.

The basic elements of compromise have not been destroyed — yet.

The Brotherhood announced a demonstration of its followers on Saturday. It plans to have this at Tahrir square where yesterday a hundred thousand protested against Morsi and where some of those protesters are still camping out. Should the two groups meet the situation could become bloody very fast. The "elements of compromise" would than likely be destroyed.

The Brotherhood should step back, avoid the danger of a blood conflict and go for a real democracy. If it is so convinced of having a majority behind it why does it want to rush a process that will define and guide Egypt through the next decades?

Morsi's priority now should be to get a new parliament elected. The constitution should be left alone until that parliament is well seated and has defined its working procedures. It could then task an inclusive group of notable people as constitutional assembly to write a new constitution in which each article is compromised on until it receives at least a two-third majority of the constitutional assembly. The constitutional draft should then be voted on by all until one is found that a super-majority of the people can agree on.

Only an inclusive solution can guarantee Egypt's stability.

Comments

100, Don Bacon – If you have a good constitution and if there is good oversight by a constitutional court you get a chance for individual justice cases that would otherwise be ignored by parliamentary legislation
So a good constitutional court based on a constitution protecting individual and minority rights (and the rights of women who are not a minority but somehow always endangered) can save minorites from hostile legislation by parliamentary majorities.
Above case is controversal in Germany as the exemption to labor law was an attempt to get older people into employment lowering the threshold for companies.
As I understand it the discussion is so heated in Egypt as minorities feel threatened by a constitution that is by a majority disregarding the minority perspective when the legal system is their only hope for protection.
As majorities can change, ie. you are in the majority today and in the minority tomorrow, and as cornered ethnic or religious minorities might turn to violent means to get respect in the worst case or leave the country depriving it of valuable expertise and diversity, a good constitution is in the interest and for the protection of everyone.
The Muslim Brotherhood do not seem to understand that.
The constitution is always the framework for what laws a parliament can pass without risking the laws being challenged. So if e.g. the Egyptian constitution contains a paragraph saying the state has to support women to balance their obligations to their families with public work it would be difficult to challenge a law stipulating that husbands have to agree when their wife takes up employment (we had that law in Germany as late as the 1960’s). If the constitution states women and men have equal rights which cannot be taken from them that law would only work if women also have to agree on their husband taking up employment.
The difference in personal law for Christians, Jews and Muslims e.g. will make cross marriage in Egypt near impossible if you do not switch your religion as there does not seem to be a provision for civil marriage but laws regulating family matters are according to Abrahamaic religion.
The programme of the Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice Party is very modern, however, there are points which are simply contradictory (like the draft constitution) which leave them open to suspicion.
Like this here

2. Guarantee non-discrimination among citizens in rights and duties on the basis of religion, sex or colour.3. Ensure women’s access to all their rights, consistent with the values of Islamic law, maintaining the balance between their duties and rights

and – most problematic – this here

The State envisaged in our program is the national constitutional Islamic modern democracy, based on Sharia (Islamic law) as a frame of reference. By its nature, Sharia nurtures aspects of faith,worship and morality, and also regulates various aspects of life for Muslims and their non-Muslim partners in the homeland. However, in some (few) cases, Sharia regulates these aspects through
definitive texts with direct relevance and significance. It can also regulate through general rules and principles, leaving details for interpretation and legislation as suits different times and environments,in the service of justice, righteousness and the interests of the homeland and citizens. This is to be entrusted to legislative councils, while the Supreme Constitutional Court is charged with monitoring the constitutionality of resulting legislation. Meanwhile, non-Muslims have the right to refer to their own rules and laws in the fields of family and religious affairs. This State is responsible for the protection of freedom of belief and worship as well as places of worship for non-Muslims just as it protects Islam, Islamic affairs and mosques.

So, lets say I am atheist, what do I do? How can I marry? Where will I be buried? Will my morality be governed by Sharia Law or would that be considered religious affairs (not likely). And Sharia Law is not clearly defined so putting it into the constitution in practice means anything even legislation regulating intimate behaviour is possible i.e. no protection at all. Worse it takes legislation from the parliament to the clergy as only they are competent.
Christians are about 15 percent of Egyptians. That is a lot of people to ignore in legislation.

Posted by: somebody | Nov 30 2012 20:43 utc | 101

Finally:
http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/egypt-s-draft-constitution-translated
I’m mostly curious about to what degree the SCAF was able to carve foreign policy away from the democratic process as they said they would around this time last year. But I think the constitution is a more important news story than Abbas’ vote in the UN. I can’t think of a more important story in the Middle East right now.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Dec 1 2012 0:15 utc | 102

Another false alarm, I put the link here before scrolling to the bottom.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Dec 1 2012 0:15 utc | 103

It looks like the National Defense Council oversees the armed forces budget and officers outnumber civilians 8 to 7:
It looks pretty bad. If I was Egyptian, I’d vote against it just on that basis. I wonder how this was put in.
http://www.righttononviolence.org/mecf/29112012-proposal-final-draft-of-the-egyptian-constitution/
(Via Google Translate of the docx file, most of the draft constitution in Arabic, on that page)

Article (197)
Arises Council for National Defense, the president will take his presidency, and its membership includes major House of Representatives and the Shura and the Prime Minister, and ministers of defense and foreign affairs, finance, interior and intelligence chief General and Chief of Staff of the armed forces and the leaders of naval and air forces and air defense and chief of operations for the armed forces and the Director of Military Intelligence and reconnaissance.
The President of the Republic to whom He calls of specialists and experts to attend meetings of the Council without having their votes counted.
And respect given in private affairs means of securing the country and integrity, and discuss the budget of the armed forces, and his opinion should be taken in the draft laws relating to the armed forces “and other law defines the terms of reference.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Dec 1 2012 16:23 utc | 104

Arnold I must commend you on your English reading abilities!! You could actually understand that text?? I know ZERO arabic but I think I prefer reading the arabic text! 🙂

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Dec 1 2012 16:52 utc | 105

@Arnold Evans 104 It looks like the National Defense Council oversees the armed forces budget and officers outnumber civilians 8 to 7
I’ll put our big-spender civilians up against military officers any day. Why should the situation be different in Egypt?
Chicago Tribune, Nov 28, 2012
Pentagon says “lot of money” still to be made in arms business

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer on Wednesday reassured industry executives and investors that there was still “a lot of money” to be made in the defense business, despite mounting budget pressures that will limit spending on new arms programs.
Frank Kendall, defense undersecretary for acquisition, technology and logistics, said the budget outlook had clearly changed after a decade of continuous increases in U.S. military spending. But he said the Pentagon’s annual budget remained quite large — and even a worst case scenario that would cut defense spending by an additional $50 billion or around 10 percent in fiscal year 2013 — was “not the end of the world.”
“We’re going to work our way through this,” Kendall told an investor conference hosted by Credit Suisse. “There’s a lot of money still to be made.”
He said the U.S. military’s new strategy which sees a pivot to the Asia-Pacific region, and calls for increased investment in cybersecurity and space, would result in new growth opportunities for defense companies.
The department was also mindful of the need to maintain critical design skills in aerospace, he said. “We’re in this together. The health of the industrial base is very important,” he said.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 1 2012 16:57 utc | 106

I do not see anybody challenging Egypt’s army. Mursi seems to have problems in his own constituency.

Posted by: somebody | Dec 2 2012 9:56 utc | 107