Pat Lang, the former head honcho of U.S. Defense Intelligence in the Middle East, commented at his blog that an attack of Turkey on Syria could lead to a "Guns of August" like process. The book "The Guns of August" describes the political and military maneuvering that eventual led to the, then rather unintended, start of the first world war.

Is Lang's comparison exaggerated? I don't think so. There is a lot of brush in the area and a small flame could easily become a big fire. One area where an open war over Syria could escalate is to the east of Turkey. That and a Turkish Armenian skirmish today is reason enough to take a deeper look into the various issues there.

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About 150,000 Armenians are living in Syria. These Armenians are partly descendents of those who were ethnically cleansed by the Ottomans from Armenian parts of east Turkey. They are followers of the Armenian Apostolic Church, which itself is part of the Orthodox Church. Armenians anywhere do not think favorably about the Salafi fighters Turkey is supporting against the secular Syrian government.

Since the demise of the Soviet Union the powerful Russian Orthodox Church regained its enormous influence within Russian politics. This is one reason why Russia supports Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan over the quasi independent Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR), an Armenian region within Azerbaijan that gained quasi independence and some land in a war during the early 1990s.

The conflict over the region has not ended. The Armenians are opening new airports in Nagorno-Karabakh, further integrating it into their country. The Azerbaijanis do not like this:

Step towards the commissioning of Khojaly airport in Nagorno-Karabakh is dangerous, violates international law and harms the peaceful settlement of the conflict, Foreign Ministry spokesman Elman Abdullayev said at the press conference.

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Earlier, Armenian media reported about the commissioning of the airport in Khankendi.

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Azerbaijan has banned the use of the airspace of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenia, as no one can guarantee flight safety in the area, the head of the Azerbaijani Civil Aviation Administration, Arif Mammadov said.

He said Armenia's steps directed to the operation of the airport in Khankendi are attempts to violate international legal norms. This air space belongs to Azerbaijan, so its use by Armenia is impossible.

Not really impossible. In recent years Russia sold some highly sophisticated air defense weapons to Armenia (Khojaly is right next to Stepanakert, the capitiol of the region):

Deployment of the mobile S-300PS batteries in Syunik province places the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region under the protection of Armenia’s air defense network. Furthermore, the S-300PS enjoys mobility that the S-300PT does not, enabling rapid relocation when required. As such, either S-300PS complex represents a possible occupant for the S-300P complex constructed near Stepanakert in Nagorno-Karabakh, supplementing or replacing extant 2K11 or S-125 batteries in the region. The siting of the S-300PS batteries permits target track assignment from either the Yerevan-based 64N6 battle management radar or a Nagorno-Karabakh-based 36D6 EW radar. Furthermore, the current siting of the S-300PS batteries closes a pre-existing air defense gap, allowing Armenia to deny air travel into the Azeri province of Nakhchivan.

Following his strategy to piss off every neighbor the Turkish foreign minister Davutoğlu today threw himself into the issue. First an Armenian civil airplane that carried humanitarian relief to Aleppo was told to land in Turkey for an inspection of its load. After a few hours it was allowed to continue its flight. Then Davatoglu let off a totally hypocritical missive about the Khojaly airport:

Armenia’s step was not friendly, Davutoğlu said, adding that Turkey had been in solidarity with Azerbaijan on the question of the airport as well as other issues.

Turkey was ready to do everything to establish peace and stability in the south Caucasus, the foreign minister said.

“Everyone should respect all countries’ borders to maintain peace,” Davutoğlu was quoted as saying.

Turkey wants the problem of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity to be solved, Davutoğlu said.

Russia has some 5,000 soldiers permanently stationed in Armenia. This summer it announced to double that presence. Russia has no over land access to Armenia. It is believed that it has plans to create, if needed, an access route through Georgia to Armenia to supply its troops there. Its recent Caucasus 2012 maneuver seemed to be designed to train for such an event:

As part of the exercise, the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla were given objectives to ensure a favorable operating environment for naval operations, security, and joint actions with land units during a special anti-terrorist operation.

The maneuvers involved the missile cruiser Moskva, several large assault ships, two small anti-submarine ships, four sea-going trawlers, two small missile ships, missile and assault launches, and also contingents of marines. Both marine forces achieved their objectives.

Airborne Forces also took an active part in the “Caucasus 2012” exercise. Colonel-General Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the airborne forces, said: “Units of the 7th (Alpine) Air Assault Division were landed on the Kapustin Yar training area during the exercise. The 247th Air Assault Regiment, which is part of this unit, took part in a bilateral tactical exercise with the 5th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade in the Ashuluk training area. At the same time, units of the division fulfilled a number of objectives in the Rayevskoye training area in cooperation with the Black Sea Fleet.”

As Saakashvili's lost 2008 war over border provinces amply proved that the Georgian military would be unable to hold off such a force.

Like Georgia the oil rich Azerbaijan, under the dictatorship of president Aliyev, has friendly relation with "western" countries. There is speculation that Azerbaijani airfields could be used during an Israeli attack on Iran:

[D]espite official denials by Azerbaijan and Israel, two Azeri former military officers with links to serving personnel and two Russian intelligence sources all told Reuters that Azerbaijan and Israel have been looking at how Azeri bases and intelligence could serve in a possible strike on Iran.

"Where planes would fly from – from here, from there, to where? – that's what's being planned now," a security consultant with contacts at Azeri defense headquarters in Baku said. "The Israelis … would like to gain access to bases in Azerbaijan."

That Aliyev, an autocratic ally of Western governments and oil firms, has become a rare Muslim friend of the Jewish state – and an object of scorn in Tehran – is no secret; a $1.6-billion arms deal involving dozens of Israeli drones, and Israel's thirst for Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea crude, are well documented.

Joby Warwick, who has written several, anti-Iran propaganda pieces in the Washington Post adds another one today favorable comparing the mafia dictatorship of Azerbaijan with Iran because, ya know, some Azerbaijanis like Jennifer Lopez.

Also today the NATO propaganda shop Atlantic Council called for the deployment of NATO assets to Turkey:

It is time for NATO to send proportional support to Turkey during its hour of need. Reinforcing this embattled ally with a small number of AWACS radar aircraft and/or units from the NATO rapid reaction force will strengthen Ankara militarily and politically.

It will also send a powerful message to the Assad regime in Syria and its allies to prevent any further attacks against Turkey. By acting now, NATO can help de-escalate the confrontation along the Turkish-Syrian border and decrease the possibility of Turkey intervening unilaterally in Syria.

Propaganda and the buildup and positioning of military forces for "de-escalation" was one of the policies described in the book "The Guns of August" that eventually led to World War I.

Not only Syria but also the Kurdish areas of Turkey and north Iraq and further east the Caucasus area are tinderboxes that could easily go up in flames. Any military move against Syria, which has a military alliance with Iran, could easily extend into the wider area.

The situation is of increasing complexity. An all out accidental war involving the whole area, including war between NATO and Russia's CSTO, is no longer unthinkable.