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Turkish Army Off Its Tracks
The Turkish army is training near the Syrian border for a second day. From the picture in the report its is evident that it needs more training, especially in tank maintenance and driving.
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That old M-60A3 tank has thrown off its right track. That happens when the tank commander and driver are inexperienced, do not perform regular maintenance or misjudge the terrain. If the tension of the track is not well adjusted, turning too fast on uneven ground tends to throw the track off. It will take at least half a day and another tank to get this one back on its tracks.
Twenty percent of all Turkish generals are currently in jail for allegedly preparing a coup. Those 68 prisoners, three times as many as allegedly defected from the Syrian forces, are some of the most experienced Turkish soldiers. They should be publicly listened to before Erdogan sends the Turkish army into Syria and thereby off its tracks.
@B#1 – I don’t know where your going with this – Have you seen the Turkish military capability? Turkey’s military is far more positioned, equipped and trained than Syria, even stronger than Iran, not just in manpower, and that is more than double, but modern weaponry. Turkey without external assistance could win over Syria; it has over 1900+ aircraft, double of Syria. Turkeys Naval force is pretty epic, where Syria has near nothing. Syria if it does intend to posture can’t afford to engage with Turkey. It has a much larger financial capability. Then we have Israel, much smaller, but again It cant engage, that engagement would cause US air-power to cripple Syria. Assad is in a no-go position, and loosing financial ability, this is devastating and he is out of options. The only weak door is Jordan, but this is knocking on Nato again, so no-go.
Think on the logic here, a small force has disrupted the Syrian Army, this force is tiny, with little resources in a true fighting force and the Syrian Army is struggling; how do you think it would handle an invasion of 200,000 skilled, equipped and experienced combatants with Sea and Air support? It would be a white wash, and part of history.
@Par#5 Assad has no funding, the equipment is antiquated, spares are limited, he may have 6 months to fund the army, but with being active i.e. deploying out to cover all, he will have 1-2 months, it’s a ticking clock. The small group hit an run tactics wear down such a large force, if this can be spread into many sub groups, Assad will need to fuel, feed, transport, plan and manage at least 2/3 of his forces, 200,000, no one is putting up the million’s a day to achieve this. The small arms groups can operate on SME budgets and have external funding.
The idea in not to kill Assad, that would have been done, it would just take a .50 cal or other (Heart and Minds), it’s 1. Make him leave via political will (even if it’s far greater than that), or 2. Make them make him leave – The rest rest is irrelevant, it’s domino’s and the statement.
Propaganda or not, the outcome is more than obvious – the US does not want a drawn-out battle (Elections), but does want to be active (It’s in it’s nature)and assert its supremacy as the world’s Superpower. The flack and geopolitical issues are negotiation, and that is working, the stepping down of Annan is a clear signal,”Peace has failed” So it’s intervention time – deals have been made, the mechanisms are in place and now it’s crossing the ‘T’s and dotting the ‘i’s…
Posted by: ArtofWar | Aug 2 2012 19:16 utc | 18
@Zico#21 – The point is Turkeys’ army is greater and it is piggy in the middle, both side don and wont engage, it’s self defeating either way -Yes Turkey is reliant on Iran and Russia (Oil and Gas) including tourism and its manufacturing industry, and needs it’s export market and it is a sizable chunk of the GDP – War will not help at all – in fact the whole Arab spring have for a better word F****d-up a huge tourist and manufacturing industry and that ripple effect is worldwide; globally SME’s in the industry have suffered and will do for years to come – a friend of mine, provided diving tours, shut up shop, went bankrupt solely on Egypt, he has no recourse, and basically eats from tin cans and is living in ‘Spam city’…
The issue on sanctions has been ongoing, and your right, the scramble on energy has been a battle, and we have all felt the impact. Sanctions are utter failures in terms of humanity and civil society, as it breaks the economic capability; it kills the population, the civilians that are essentially nothing to do with the issues, and is the cause of black markets and the illicit trade, not by choice, but by survival, the most ineffective and problem causing tact ever created, but they still do it!
Agree Turkey has been in conflict and some are still ongoing, then again the whole region and most of the World has its battles, some are not years or decades, some for hundreds of years, many stemming from colonialism and beyond and its ‘divided’ solutions, we like to divide, take Israel and today still ongoing, Sudan and Mali for example.
Weak or strong alliances, it is all part of the picture, we the West or the East do our geopolitics with many variable in mind, all have merits and downsides, and we all hold Ace cards of sorts. As for Assad, he has none in tangible terms, he thought he had allies, but they can all be bought and have been bought in some form or manner.
Zico -Your point on Afghan, it’s about the mineral resources, the men that stare at goats and the men in flying machines are all a part of the décor, they leave once the land is raped or put in those to do the on-going raping, it’s Business. Unfortunately the solider is sometimes fodder, irrelevant of side, this is the thing that grips my shit about politics, it plays with life as a figure/cost in relation to the return, soldiers are inherently expendables, like tents, goats, RME’s, but also useful to aid Nationalism and support, more so with a missing leg and running in Nike gear stating how much he or she owes to the service and is a patriot – I don’t know who is the more stupid?
@Nemo#22 – Smoking that crack . Geezer – Turkey’s Mil is ranked 6th in the World, Syria 35 or 36th. It ranks 3rd in NATO in terms of Air-fleet size 755 aircraft, 270 are F-16C/D’s it just added 30 F-16s and associated equipment to cover attrition and a stop-gap measure untill the arrival of the F-35. The Block 50 with the APG-68(V5) radar, radar warning receivers, and carry the AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missile. The introduction of the Block 50 gives the THK F-16 force true SEAD capabilities, the weapon systems for its F-16s, including AGM-65A/B Maverick TV-guided missiles and AIM-120 AMRAAM, 138 AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), 120 LAU-129A/A launchers and recently purchased POPEYE attack missiles from Israel to be used by both the F-16s and F-4E’s upgraded by Israel. In 2005, a number of new weapon systems are to be installed on the Turkish vipers, including AGM-84H (SLAM-ER), AIM-120C, AGM-154A/B, AIM-9X and CBU-103/105.
It’s Marine fleet includes Submarines, and covert missile launches, and it can use high altitude bombing. Turkey spent another two billion upgrading their outdated tanks, and just shed $4 billion to select the country’s first long-range anti-air and anti-missile defense systems. the Syrian Air defense can be broken, and has been. Turkey also operate drones, one was taken down recently. Syria’s SAM network is very robust on paper, and would appear to offer a significant degree of protection at first glance. Against a limited incursion, the Syrian air defense network remains capable, despite the reliance on aging Soviet-era systems. This is one likely factor which drove the Israeli Air Force to circumvent SAM-defended areas when striking the Dayr az Zawr suspect nuclear facility in 2007. Since the whole defense has been mapped and the Iraqi side low altitude is open.
In regard to 10% of its forces, what the other 90% doing? Are they on Holiday, taking a break; they are still employed, the assumed 10% would be infantry and more than likely most of it. The point is cost and how long he can pay to operate, it’s all a question of ‘If’ and ‘when’. Once the funding is gone, the Boy Scouts could walk in, and through! Even the banking system is damaged, that caused further damage to the economy , all from the fighting – now we see signs of hyperinflation, the plunge of the currency – this will trigger full-fledged bank runs, expectations for uncontrolled depreciation of the pound could prompt mass flight from bank deposits denominated in the local currency thus causing banks to go bust or the government to close them – This is Russian money for the most part! What good is a tank if you can’t afford the fuel or power to operate it, this also goes for Coastal, Arial and land defense systems, more so the operators, they will just down tools or defect if no pay is putting bread on the table.
Nikon#23 – Scud’s! Bugger me backwards, what a pile of dog-poo, they would be taken out before they could be deployed. That is so 80’s, and Scud have proved very ineffective, as in Iraq, the same will be for Syria.
Most everything has been marked/tagged, the place has been mapped, not one asset has been overlooked. The observer mission has more than likely been used to send live tracking and left vehicles that the Syrian Army are now using, nice donation. Most check points and security post were more than likely give watches as gifts, or funky phones, all tracking devices and all monitored.
I understand and see all of your collective pro-stance, but realistically this is virtually impossible and it’s not just Turkey, that is just one wall/ blockage, while being a gateway for entry, moreover one must not forget Turkey is also Nato!
R/
Posted by: ArtofWar | Aug 3 2012 0:21 utc | 36
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