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August 28, 2012
They Make Plans …

The Orwellian named United States Institute For Peace released the The Day After Project with plans for the time after the Syrian government falls.

Does anyone remember that other quite similar project? How did that turn out?

If the Syrian government falls the new plan, like that other one, will be overwhelmed by the carnage that is sure to follow and which would be bigger with even worse consequences in the region.

Posted by b on August 28, 2012 at 16:30 UTC | Permalink
Comments

[Sorry for light posting and not policing the comments. I am still on the road and busy.]

Posted by: b | Aug 28 2012 16:31 utc | 1

From The Hindu: Inside Syria’s failed rebellion

Ever since the spring uprising in Syria, the most serious challenge to the regime since it took power in 1970, commentators had been predicting that President al-Assad’s regime was on the edge of collapse. In spite of an energetic western media campaign, largely based on overblown accounts provided by exiled opposition groups, it is in fact becoming clear that the rebellion has all but collapsed: Damascus, for example, is more alive with everyday civic life than New Delhi.
But there is no disputing that Syria’s government is far from slaying the three-headed dragon which threatens its future: a threat from the West; an economic crisis engendered by neoliberal economic reform; and a mounting Islamist threat.
…

Posted by: b | Aug 28 2012 17:15 utc | 2

The United States Institute For Peace should make plans for how they are going to cope with the catastrophic weather and economic Armageddon soon to hit them. All is not rosy as the MSM is making out. Watch September.

Posted by: hans | Aug 28 2012 17:58 utc | 3

Yeah I heard RT earlier talking about this report apparently it’s being referred to as a Post-Assad “Roadmap for Syria”. Let’s also not pin the blame for this solely on the US Institute for Peace, the German Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik thinktank also collaborated on this generic wishlist. So what do these brilliant minds think should happen after Assad goes?

Syria should be a civil state in which the role of the security forces should be to protect the security and human rights of all citizens.

I wonder if it will be the Free Syrian Army or the Syrian military that will be given this role of defending human rights?

Citizenship and equality of all citizens, rather than sectarian, ethnic, or gender considerations, should be decisive in relations between individuals and the state.

There are alot of things I think will happen if Assad goes. Equality, Non-Sectarianism, and Womens Rights are not amoung what I see as a likely outcome. I wonder will it be the Jihadists or the Muslim Brotherhood who will introduce these “gender considerations” into Syrian society (already the most progressive for womens rights).
Of course then it goes into how the FSA should work with the people to “establish trust” and “ensure there compliance with human rights standards”. Of course they left out the part where everyone sits in a big circle and sings kumbaya while holding hands.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Aug 28 2012 18:08 utc | 4

The commenter at #2 spouted rubbish when he said that Syria has “an economic crisis engendered by neoliberal economic reform”.
Neoliberal economic reforms are part of the solution to Syria’s economic problems. They are not part of the problems.
Syria’s neoliberal economic reforms are politically popular. They do not in any way explain — not even in the slightest bit — why there’s a working-class rebellion going on.
Syria’s neoliberal economic reforms have been proceeding at a pace deliberately managed by the Syrian government to be gradual, to not create major adverse fallouts in the economy.
Fifty years ago the Syrian government had a very Statist attitude towards economic development. In view of the backwardness of Syria 50 years ago (I’m generalizing), the government’s Statist modernizing program was perhaps the right choice at the time. But Statist programs can only bring an economy part of the way to modernization, after which the economy has to do a difficult transition to private-sector-driven development.
Russia has successfully transitioned to a private-sector-driven economy — that is clear in year 2012. Syria has been doing a similar economic transition since the economic policy reforms under Hafez Assad in year 1992. But in the two decades since 1992 the Syrian government has been deliberately managing the pace of the transition to be evolutionary (unlike what happened in Russia in the 1990s). In Russia today, the United Russia political party is the champion of the private-sector economy and it is the overwhelmingly popular favourite political party among the Russian electorate. Analogously in the Syrian electorate, there is a general desire for more economic liberalism and there is no desire for more Statism, in general (some exceptions include Statist agricultural land irrigation projects).
Most of the Syrian dissident political factions, as well as the government’s supporters, do not advocate more Statism. The Assad government’s balance of economic policies today has mostly been decided by going with what’s popular. Hence it’s no surprise that it is in fact popular. The dissidents don’t have an alternative economic policy program on offer.
A minority of Syria’s economic policies are economically irrational, but politically popular. (Bashar Assad said on 10 Jan 2012, “If logic contradicts reality, we go with reality.”)
The Syrian government for the last one and two decades has believed that it would be economically wrong, as well as politically unpopular, to continue with a Statist emphasis in the economy. This being so, let’s ask how successful has Syria been in transitioning during the last decade. The answer is not too bad. There was a lot of private-sector job creation during the last decade. There was plenty of expansion by private initiative in the tourism, banking, and property-development industries. Plus some valuable expansion in private-sector manufacturing in a variety of manufacturing industries for local markets, even though this manufacturing output is not highly competitive on global markets. Job creation is the most important thing because of the high rate of new young entrants to the job market, due to the high birth rate. It is a big positive fact about the Syrian economy that big numbers of new jobs were created in the private sector in Syria over the past decade. The number of new jobs created did not fully absorb the flow of new entrants to the job market. The dissidents and cranks point to the Syria’s economic jar and whine that it is not full, but a more balanced attitude is (a) the jar is more than half full and (b) you can’t blame the State for the fact that the jar is not full.

Posted by: Parviziyi | Aug 28 2012 18:29 utc | 5

The U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) was created by an act of Congress in 1984. USIP was created by an act of Congress in 1984, and is funded by the US. Its purpose, according to the implementing act, is:

to conduct research and make studies, particularly of an interdisciplinary or of a multi-disciplinary nature, into the causes of war and other international conflicts and the elements of peace among the nations and peoples of the world, including peace theories, methods, techniques, programs, and systems, and into the experiences of the United States and other nations in resolving conflicts with justice and dignity and without violence as they pertain to the advancement of international peace and conflict resolution, placing particular emphasis on realistic approaches to past successes and failures in the quest for peace and arms control.

In other words, the USIP was constituted to change US policy of initiating and conducting war to a policy of seeking peace.

USIP is the independent, nonpartisan conflict management center created by Congress to prevent and mitigate international conflict without resorting to violence. USIP works to save lives, increase the government’s ability to deal with conflicts before they escalate. http://www.usip.org/about-us

So the USIP has no authority to use taxpayer funds to participate in the US government effort illegally to support violent anti-government forces in a sovereign country, overthrow its government and replace it with insurgents — “to develop a shared vision of Syria’s democratic future, define goals and principles of a transition, and to prepare a detailed yet flexible transition planning document.”

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 28 2012 18:39 utc | 6

@ Don Bacon
Agree. Also in the report it mentions this in the backgrounder.

The project has been led by a Syrian Executive Committee which has agreed to constitute itself as a non-profit organization, The Day After Project, to be registered in Belgium. Project activities have been funded by the U.S. Department of State, the Swiss Foreign Ministry, a Dutch NGO Hivos, and a Norwegian NGO Noref. In addition, the German Foreign Ministry’s support has been crucial for the project’s success.
A temporary office to be set up in Istanbul, the Syrian Transition Support Network, will oversee the implementation of recommendations made by project working groups in three key areas: security sector reform, transitional justice, and the rule of law.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Aug 28 2012 18:53 utc | 7

Blimey, Parviziyi! That’s The Hindu, b is quoting. It is an Indian daily on the planet earth where neo-liberalism has caused a major economic crisis, in which the first victims are the working class and the peasantry.
No doubt matters are different where you live.
By the way we too have a country called Syria, coincidentally, where neo-liberalism, a form of crony capitalism unrestrained by state intervention or free competition, combined with climate change, (itself not unrelated to neo-liberal economic policies, albeit on a wider scale) is a big problem.
Our Syria is quite a small country in the Levant, as we call it. But that’s off topic.

Posted by: bevin | Aug 28 2012 19:29 utc | 8

This fantastic “government in a box” idea reminds one of early 2010 in Marjah, Afghanistan. “We’ve got a government in a box, ready to roll in,” said Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top American commander at the time. It didn’t work out, of course. The man chosen by the U.S. to administer the “government in a box,” Abdul Zahir, turned out to be a convicted felon in Germany who stabbed his own son.
Telegraph, Aug 26:

Dozens of dissidents have been ferried out of Syria to be vetted for foreign backing. Recipients of the aid are given satellite communications and computers so that they can act as a local “hub” linking local activists and the outside world.
The training takes place in an Istanbul district where handsome apartment blocks line the steep slopes and rooftop terraces boast views over the Golden Horn waterway.
Behind closed doors the distractions of outdoor coffee shops and clothing boutiques gives way to power point displays charting the mayhem sweeping Syria.
“We are not ‘king-making’ in Syria. The UK and the US are moving cautiously to help what has been developing within Syria to improve the capabilities of the opposition,” said a British consultant overseeing the programme. “What’s going to come next? Who is going to control territory across Syria. We want to give civilians the skills to assert leadership.” http://tinyurl.com/8hw6lmv

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 28 2012 19:41 utc | 9

T/U, Don Bacon @ 9, for posting about the “government in a box” which worked so terribly well (/snark) in parts of Afghanistan. Saved me some googling.

Posted by: jawbone | Aug 28 2012 20:07 utc | 10

Vetting is a good idea. It will weed out most of the Assad implants.

Posted by: dh | Aug 28 2012 20:15 utc | 11

Of course a few skilled political opportunists may get through the vetting process.

Posted by: dh | Aug 28 2012 20:47 utc | 12

Why does Robert Fisk think Syrias army has only 50,000 soldiers?
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-bloody-truth-about-syrias-uncivil-war-8081386.html
“With up to 50,000 men under arms and perhaps 4,000 battle tanks, the Syrian army, per se, cannot lose. But can they win?”

Posted by: KerKaraje | Aug 28 2012 20:54 utc | 13

@ #2
Dear “b”,
are you aware that the Hindu article is from August 2011?
It´s one year old…

Posted by: KerKaraje | Aug 28 2012 20:57 utc | 14

Fragmentation….
The head of the main Syrian opposition group is criticizing U.S. officials for saying it was premature to speak about a provisional Syrian government.
Abdelbaset Sieda of the Syrian National Council says the opposition is making “serious” preparations and consultations to announce a transitional government but admits it is not imminent.
French President Francoise Hollande called on the Syrian opposition Monday to quickly form a provisional government, saying France would recognize it.
U.S. officials called it premature because the opposition is too fragmented.
http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-opposition-chief-slams-us-remarks-syria-103341197.html

Posted by: dh | Aug 28 2012 21:22 utc | 15

I agree with Parviziyi @5 that Syria has made great efforts in the last ten years to liberalise the economy.
As they say about revolutions, they only occur, not when the repression is severe, but when the repression is lightened. re the Russian Revolution.
I have no particular wish that the Salafis win in Syria. It sounds like endless years of trouble.

Posted by: alexno | Aug 28 2012 21:59 utc | 16

The Syrian National Council is out of the loop now.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 28 2012 22:11 utc | 17

The Syrian National Council is out of the loop now.

Excuse me for the ignorance, but do you mean Washington is no longer paying attention to the SNC? Where is the attention going then? Military intervention?

Posted by: alexno | Aug 28 2012 22:33 utc | 18

Parviziyi @5 is sputtering nonsense. The heart of the uprising is the countryside, where neoliberal policies have opened the markets to foreign agricultural goods, destroying markets for local peasants. Also, foreign competition has wiped out traditional Syrian manufacturing, increasing unemployment among the urban masses.
When I was in Aleppo 20 months ago, there was nothing but boxes marked “Made in China” flooding into the bazaar at dusk, when the old city restocked it stalls. In the Christian Quarter, there was a brand new Monoprix waiting to open its doors and undercut the prices of hundreds of merchants in the surrounding commercial area.
At the time, I asked myself, “I wonder how this is going to turn out.” Now I know.
Globalization was also instrumental in fomenting high unemployment and discontent in Tunisia and Egypt before their uprisings.
Of course, there are other factors at play as well, such as a high birth rate, a thuggish regime, foreign instigation, and drought and climate change, which Parviziyi probably denies as well.

Posted by: JohnH | Aug 28 2012 23:16 utc | 19

The Berlin Group

VOA: The 45 Syrians – mostly exiled politicians and some activists fresh off the streets of their nation’s 18-month uprising – have been meeting quietly in Berlin to recommend how a transitional government could rebuild government institutions and establish democratic practices unseen in the country for more than four decades.
The results of their work are contained in The Day After: Supporting a Democratic Transition in Syria, a 120-page document that was released to the public today in Berlin.
Rafif Jouejati, a spokesperson for the Berlin group, is emphatic that its recommendations are not the product of the United States or of any other foreign power. “I would like to state very clearly that this is a Syrian document,” Jouejati said. “It was written by Syrians, and it is owned by Syrians.”
The “Day After” group’s document addresses what members believe are six areas of needed political and governmental reform: the constitution, the judicial system, popular elections, internal security, rule of law and economic and social policy.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 28 2012 23:51 utc | 20

So it seems that the terrorist-runners are operating in Istanbul and the Deep Thinkers in Berlin.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 29 2012 0:06 utc | 21

Where does Ms. Nuland fit in?

Posted by: dh | Aug 29 2012 0:11 utc | 22

And of course, the MSN talks about the “popular” uprising in Syria….

Posted by: georgeg | Aug 29 2012 0:40 utc | 23

“The Day After” sounds like “After the Rapture,” when all the true believers go directly to heaven. And Jews will see the error of their ways!
A joke sums all this up aptly: “you better behave, or America will introduce democracy!” And what a heavenly democracy it will be–like Iraq, or Haiti, or Honduras…

Posted by: JohnH | Aug 29 2012 1:12 utc | 24

At least they didn’t call it The Morning After, which would imply they’d been …..
Now comes the hand-off from The Berlin Group to the Istanbul Syrian Transition Support Network?
This is new-style Imperialism.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 29 2012 1:56 utc | 25

21, Don Bacon, I guess it is Germany’s usual compromise with the vile practises of their allies – to participate by offering cleaning up services. That is the maximum that can be sold to the German public which still – after three generations – knows what war means.
In other knews part of Munich citizens living in the center of the city had to evacuate their flats (everybody in a distance of a mile) for a day because a World War II bomb found in a building site.

Posted by: somebody | Aug 29 2012 6:33 utc | 26

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