Yesterday I asked if the specter of an Islamist lead Syrian would stop wholehearted U.S. support for the insurgency.
The answer came just a bit later in an Obama press conference. To a question about Syria's alleged chemical or biological weapons, Obama answered:
“That’s an issue that doesn’t just concern Syria. It concerns our close allies in the region, including Israel. It concerns us,” said Obama. “We cannot have a situation where chemical or biological weapons are falling into the hands of the wrong people.”
He added: “We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.”
While the reporting in the U.S. interpret that as a threat of force against Syria the real meaning seems different to me.
Obama's answer is mainly a message to the Turks and to the Syrian government.
The Turkish foreign minister Davutoglu had earlier suggested that Turkey would start to support refugee camps in a safe zone within Syria should the number of refugees in Turkey exceed 100,000. Obama just let him know that the U.S. would not support such a move. His only red line are Syria's strategic weapons. And those only when "a whole bunch" of those are involved. An arbitrary number of refugees in Turkey is not a red line and Turkey would be very alone if it were to act on that:
With the reluctance of European countries and NATO to get the ball rolling, the United States has become the only power on which Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia agree to lead a potential multilateral military campaign.
At this point the unwillingness of Washington to militarily engage in Syria is the most important hurdle before the plans of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia can be realized.
The Syrian government had already pledged to not use its strategic weapons aginst the insurgency. From its view Obama's answer is a free pass to use all other powers it has against the insurgency. Even massive use of air power, a main military advantage the Syrian government has over the insurgents, is no longer a red line.
The insurgents understood that message:
Obama’s comments were greeted with derision by Syrian activists on the social-networking sites Facebook and Twitter. They accused him of threatening intervention only when Israel was at risk.
One Twitter user compared Obama to Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the Syrian regime’s few foreign allies: “Both blabber about ‘red lines,’ have kept Assad afloat in blood-soaked power.” Another tweet, from a user called SyriaTime, said the president’s warning so late in the crisis is akin to saying, “Sure, genocide is fine.”
The U.S. is for now mostly out of the game and without the threat of U.S. military involvement Syria is now free to do whatever it takes to shut down the insurgency.