Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 12, 2012
Egypt: A Presidential Coup Or A Backdoor Deal?

Playing Calvinball the players make up the rules while the game is ongoing. The Egyptian revolution confirms again that it is olayed under such rules.

Egyptian President Mursi just send Defense Minister Tantawi and the Chief-of-Staff Sami Annan into retirement. He also canceled the June 17 addendum to the constitution which gave the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces special powers while it limited his own powers as president.

Mursi appointed General Abdellatif Sisi, a former head of military intelligence, to command the military and the former judge Mekky as vice-president. Mursi had once promised to have a Christian and a woman as vice-presidents. Mahmoud Mekky is neither.

The move comes after some incidents in the Sinai where some shady groups of alleged radicals launched attacks on the armed forces. While big successful counterattacks were reported in the Egyptian state media, local reporting did not confirm those at all. No wounded were found in the hospitals and no fresh graves in the cemeteries. This media manipulation may be one of the reasons for Mursi's surprising move today.

One wonders what the Egyptian military is going to do about this. Will it really give up the powers it held over the last 50 or so years? Doing so would endanger its wide economic interests that guarantees its officer class' standard of living. That is one reason to expect a reaction by some officer group.

But there also might be a backdoor deal between the new head of the military and Mursi. Not everyone in the army was happy with Tantawi at the head of the SCAF. A deal might give both sides some guarantees and incentives to not allow any counter-move.

Egypt just received a $2 billion loan from Qatar. This after a request for further loans from Saudi Arabia was rejected. The loan again shows the preference of the Qatari ruler for the Muslim Brotherhood of which Mursi was a leading member. The money may have been instrumental to allow for today's steps.

During the last year the Muslim Brotherhood had already taken several steps in different directions than promised. These were seen by large parts of the populations as power grab and overreach. Many saw the Supreme Command and its special powers as the only balance against the Islamist power play. If Mursi does not have the backing of the public at large for the steps to dictatorial power he took today, which I find likely, we can expect a renewed crisis in Egypt and another military coup.

Comments

Egypt military is a business community so who pays gets represented ….
More interesting would be how much influence the US really has on the policies of Saudi Arabia and Quatar, and if they are looking for additonal patrons …

Posted by: somebody | Aug 12 2012 16:09 utc | 1

I’m sure that Mursi appointing a former head of military intelligence to command the military was not a problem for the CIA, particularly if Sisi is still on the company payroll. Or soon will be again.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 12 2012 16:44 utc | 2

As a general rule I think anything that weakens the corrupt military leadership will strenghten the revolution. Don’t fully trust the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood but they won the election and so should be given a shot at ruling. However I know for certain that the SCAF cannot be trusted given their 40 history.
Another gauge is to look at how Saudi Arabia has reacted. The Saudi’s fought to keep Mubarack in power. After his removal they fought to elect Salafists over Muslim Brotherhood. After the MB landslide they fought to keep the SCAF in charge of military and foreign affairs.
Generally anything that makes Saudi Arabia this scared cannot be bad.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Aug 12 2012 17:00 utc | 3

I fear Morsi will be assassinated..This doesn’t look good for Riyadh, Tel Aviv and maybe Washington..Qatar just donated $2 Billion dollars to Egypt to help their ailing economy.
Unless there’s somewhat a deal one can never know for sure..Things will have to play out in the next couple of months.
Something odd happening the Sinai..The Israelis are testing Morsi with their latest staged insecurity in the Sinai..Hamas has again, ended up the biggest looser in all this. Gazan are now suffering for the stupidity and opportunism of Hamas.

Posted by: Zico | Aug 12 2012 17:07 utc | 4

“head of military intelligence” is the guy who is supposed to make sure officers do not putsch? If so Mursi is safe.
I am sure Rafah will be reopened soon. The interesting thing is what will happen to the tunnels.

Posted by: somebody | Aug 12 2012 18:04 utc | 5

You can’t make this up –
-headline on the Pentagon website http://www.defense.gov/
“New DIA Director Expects Intensified Demands for Intelligence”

Posted by: Don Bacon | Aug 12 2012 21:17 utc | 6

During the period of Mubarak’s fall from power it seemed fairly clear that there were some serious splits in the military. It was never clear who the players were that were supporting the people in Tahrih Square but it seemed it was coming from the junior officer corp. The corruption among the senior officers must have caused much resentment. It seems reasonable that Mursi has made some contacts with those forces and must feel he has some support at that level. Nothing is clear at this point and it is obvious very few either in the West or in Egypt were in a position to predict this latest coup. I notice that even AbuKhalil has not posted anything on this yet. He usually has pretty good contacts in many Arab nations but so far they have been caught flat footed on this development. Juan Cole is also totally puzzled by this action though he does say it is a major story and where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

Posted by: ToivoS | Aug 13 2012 1:26 utc | 7

TheArabist (www.arabist.net, sorry, don’t know how to do a link here) has a post up with more details and preliminary opinion …
“This continuity suggests to me that we are dealing with a reconfigured SCAF that is nonetheless a powerful entity that still has powers parallel to the presidency and other civilian institutions. It is not, as the initial reaction to today’s news largely was, a victory by Morsi over the military. Rather, it is a reconfiguration of the relationship.
Even so, it does appear the presidency comes out reinforced.”

Posted by: oboblomov | Aug 13 2012 2:43 utc | 8

Colm O’Toole,
I would agree with you. I find it a little strange that the same people who stridently criticize some rulers (eg, Assad) for not holding genuine elections, ignore the fact that Mursi was elected in a free election. Not liking the result is not a valid reason for denying his status.
A clear division is now appearing in the ME between the MB and the Salafis, with Qatar backing the former and the Saudis the latter. Both are Islamists, but the MB (and similar parties) are political Islamists while the Salafis etc are religious Islamists.
It is in the longer term interests of the West (and of Muslims in general) for the religious Islamists to be defeated in this competition. That is why, like you, I am pleased that the Saudis are running scared.

Posted by: FB Ali | Aug 13 2012 2:59 utc | 9

According to German InfoRadio, Tantawi and Annan are going to work as military advisors to Mursi.

Posted by: m_s | Aug 13 2012 4:24 utc | 10

owever this thing shakes out and imo the most likely outcome is a shift in the balance of power away from the military towards the MB, ordinary egyptians are giving every sign of having reached the same conclusion as other populations which fell for the ceral box card cliches about ‘democracy’ for many years before experiencing its reality have; that is the hoary old saw that “it doesn’t matter who you vote for, politicians always win”.
I doubt Egyptians have another ‘popular revolution’ left in them. During the run up to the elections it became apparant that the continuously shifting goal posts were gonna deliver a new boss not unlike the old boss, by that stage many egyptians were expressing more sorrow about the death of a dream than anger n determination to make the revolution work.
Of course a lot of egyptians will try to keep fighting the good fight but you know how humans are, many of them will be sick at what has happened, sick and tired of the endless bickering between factions of what not so long ago had seemed like a united opposition to the old regime, and sick to their stomachs at having been scammed yet again.
The foreign media coverage of egypt what little there is treats the remaining demonstrators as unrealistic holdhouts and talks of them in the same terms as Bumble the Beadle did of Oliver Twist when he asked for more gruel.
That sort of reportage means that both domestic and foreign outrage will be pretty muted when the determined egyptians are murdered, assaulted, and imprisoned after the MB and the military have settled on a number.
I wish it wasn’t so but I can’t see any other outcome likely.
The positive to be taken from egypt is that televising a revolution might create momentum but it is impossible to make the wholesale changes to power and wealth structures a revolution requires, and still retain support from mainstream talking heads n their audiences.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Aug 13 2012 9:58 utc | 11

turkey’s debt bubble
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3265/turkey-foreign-borrowing-bubble

Posted by: nikon | Aug 13 2012 13:07 utc | 12

It does make you wonder if the powers-that-be have quietly arranged a generational coup. Mubarak, Suleiman, and Tantawi were all on their last legs. The new, improved SCAF has leaders aged mostly in their fifties, ideal for securing Egypt for the “international community” for a generation.
If this is the case, Hillary the Horrible must be quietly smiling.

Posted by: JohnH | Aug 13 2012 14:58 utc | 13

In a democracy,I thought that civilians control the military,or am I mistaken?Hamas opportunists?Oh,yeah opportunity knocks for the maligned freedom movement blasphemed throughout the western idiot world,just like Hezbollah,those other opportunists.
And the real Zionist opportunists chuckle at the gullibility of American sheeple.
This alleged attack by extremists?on The guards reeks of misinformation and military collusion by Egypts paid off American Ziowhores to further isolate Gaza.Maybe Morsi is showing solidarity with the Palestinian victims of neolibcon destruction?

Posted by: dahoit | Aug 13 2012 15:02 utc | 14

Nikon @12: Great catch. It begs the question of where Turkey would find the money to occupy Syria. Certainly not China. I suppose Erdogan could sell his soul to the Gulf Oil Sheikhs, but I doubt that even they have enough to finance such an adventure.
And we thought the Iranian economy was sucking wind!!!

Posted by: JohnH | Aug 13 2012 15:09 utc | 15

Seems the No-fly will be looming – US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are discussing implementing the no-fly zones for Syria after holding Saturday talks in Istanbul.
Just watched the video appeared on YouTube. The footage displays a crowd of people throwing the bodies of slain postal workers from a post office rooftop. Even the crowd are sick (Locals), male and female running in to take a picture and film it all very happy at the event-WTF!

Posted by: Kevin | Aug 13 2012 18:16 utc | 16

@ 8: Here’s the link…
http://www.arabist.net/

Posted by: ben | Aug 14 2012 5:07 utc | 17

john H @ 13;
“If this is the case, Hillary the Horrible must be quietly smiling.”
Smiling over the probable deal struck with Turkey over the banking trouble. “no fly zone” for money?

Posted by: ben | Aug 14 2012 5:21 utc | 18

Mabey Morsi’s power grab with Qatari financial support has alarmed Saudis enough that they are now holding direct talk with Iran, Sauid media is even saying that “there is no way Saudi Arabia will allow Israel to use its airspace in an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities”

Posted by: nikon | Aug 14 2012 8:27 utc | 19

Morsi met with Iranian vice president in Cairo
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/08/world/la-fg-egypt-iran-20120809

Posted by: nikon | Aug 14 2012 8:35 utc | 20

Nikon @12: Great catch. It begs the question of where Turkey would find the money to occupy Syria. Certainly not China. I suppose Erdogan could sell his soul to the Gulf Oil Sheikhs, but I doubt that even they have enough to finance such an adventure.

Turkey was promised $100B by the GCC to help make it the Green Banking (Islamic) financial center (Google is your friend). In return Turkey was to provide military cover to the rats and bigots trying to overthrow the legitimate government of Syria. Why Syria was choosen, because Syria is at the cross roads of the desert religions (Islam, Christianity, Judaism) who ever controls Syria controls these religions for the 21 century. As in stereotype of Arabs looks like Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been double crossing each other. Iran cannot allow Syria to fall, that will mean the end of it’s revered Shia sites.

Posted by: hans | Aug 14 2012 10:15 utc | 21

yeah, meet the new boss, same as the old boss. (see DID)
Those who held the power were forced to share with those who held some chunk of people power.
The MB were, are, the only organization that had a country-wide network of a kind, consequential popular support, moreover an org. historically suppressed, then tolerated but illegal, or possibly with permission to be elected, as independents, in an up and down jagged time line…etc.
Still always ostensibly in opposition to the incumbents or ruling elite. With religious values of caring, spirituality, sharing, equality, anti-corruption, etc. to boot?
One can guess that MB was allowed in some measure to keep ppl quiet and provide an outlet, particularly to get them to focus on personal values, morality/life, religion, face-to-face encounters (as opposed to a faceless administration), sympathy, shared beliefs. Which keeps them from considering the role/need for a military, union demands, work place contracts, agricultural policy, the organization of the media, national debt, foreign investment, income from tourism, health care, climate change, and so on. Sounds familiar?
So now, in Egypt at least, it has come time to share that power.

Posted by: Noirette | Aug 14 2012 12:36 utc | 22

The more I think about it, the more skeptical I am. Tantawi and Annan have been designated advisors to Mursi. This could be a hint that the military has become more powerful, not less so.

Posted by: m_s | Aug 14 2012 18:09 utc | 23

It looks like the MB and the army got a new arrangement going and as a bonus the old army pals of Mubarak were conveniently ‘retired’ (presidential advisors with no executive powers look just like honorific positions without any real backing power).
But even if it was an agreement, or a little generational or face cleaning coup inside the army, Morsi now got back nominally some real executive powers.
So my guess is that the MB is consolidating, the army is receding (but to remain in the background as the ‘hidden’ power) and we will have to wait to see how President Morsi uses his presidential powers in the next months.

Posted by: ThePaper | Aug 14 2012 19:25 utc | 24

@ThePaper:
Dennis Ross, Elliott Abrams, Douglas Feith — all were advisors.

Posted by: m_s | Aug 14 2012 20:31 utc | 25

The situations are not comparable. The US figurehead president (even more with some presidents like ‘Junior’) and the large influence of different ‘lobbies’ in US policies can’t be compared to a Egypt that is used to a real dictator president. All those are supposed to set policies for the US government.
Also I doubt the MB, with Morsi as their top representative in the Egyptian government, is going to be listening to some old SCAF ex-leaders as policy makers. Advisors, sure, they will site there and may talk (some are pretty old so they may actually retire … or just die) and they will be politely listened to. But the MB policies are going to be set somewhere else, and the external influences will come with people with real power like current army leaders (who can actually order troops to act), the US, the Qatar emir, …

Posted by: ThePaper | Aug 14 2012 21:00 utc | 26

Egypt military
You may be interested in reading what is in this post regarding Egypts military and Morsi’s ‘power’

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Posted by: Katherine | Aug 30 2012 23:34 utc | 28