The fight over Aleppo is waging on with advantages on the Syrian government side. The Syrian army launched its ground offense in Aleppo and killed the leader of the insurgency there. The insurgents are in tactical retreat from their Aleppo stronghold of Salaheddin. It will take some time to mop them up.
When politics failed to give Washington what it wanted it decided to increase the violence in Syria by promoting Al Qaeda to fill the void the Annan mission left:
The US’s estimation is that the agenda of ‘regime change’ in Syria is getting stuck in mud. The Syrian regime is intact.
Therefore, what is needed is a military push. The name of the game is to achieve a ’soft landing’ in Damascus without spilling American blood – as WaPo says. Now that the US and its allies have got rid of the nuisance of Kofi Annan, the path ahead is clear.
The only way forward for both sides of the proxy war in Syria is the military option:
Until either Assad or his armed opponents achieve a major military victory that translates into immediate political gains, thus forcing the external players to negotiate, there will be no alternative to continued military operations and further fighting.
The armed opposition – with all its diverse factions comprising Syrian, Arab and foreign fighters and Salafi and other ideologies – has become better organized and equipped to wage a long war. It is receiving larger amounts and more sophisticated military equipment by the day. The regime, too, has adjusted for a protracted battle, in which no holds are barred, and in which it feels justified in unleashing all the firepower at its disposal.
Both sides are equally convinced that to achieve a big military triumph, such as controlling Aleppo, maximum force must be used, in order to push the crisis toward a resolution – though not necessarily to a political settlement anytime soon.
The U.S. and its allies are sending more weapons and radicals into Syria. But the public mood in the west about this conflict is changing. Even the German public TV, which is full of anti-Assad propaganda, is now warning about the Salafi insurgents. There is also some trouble between the Syrian fanatics and their foreign jihadi guests:
"Let me be clear. I am an Islamist, my fighters are Islamists. But there is more than one type of Islamist," he told Reuters. "These men coming fought in insurgencies like Iraq. They are too extreme, they want to blow up any symbol of the state, even schools."
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One of the most effective and elusive groups in Aleppo now sending reinforcements into Damascus is called Ahrar al-Sham, "The Free Men of Syria." Its fighters accept the bulk of jihadist foreign fighters in Idlib and Aleppo, rebels say."They're extremely effective and secretive. They coordinate with us to attack the regime but they don't take orders from anyone. They get weapons and explosives smuggled from abroad that are much better," said a rebel in Aleppo called Anwar.
In view of these radical insurgents' atrocities many Syrians critical of their government are increasing the support for their government:
The video released last week in Aleppo that appeared to show FSA fighters executing more than a dozen accused regime thugs, called shabiha, and Aawayini, meaning collaborators, at a school will not help to win the trust of those Syrians skeptical of the insurgents' motives. It may also help push some opposition supporters away who are disgusted by the FSA’s real or rumored use of violence.
“They talk about wanting democracy, but I am now too scared to even voice my opinion in public for fear I’ll be called a collaborator and be killed,” a 60-year old retired schoolteacher, named Obeyda, told me over a coffee in her living room in Muhajirin in late July. She used to be very critical of the regime but now she’s more critical of the FSA.
For those who followed the conflict the existence of radical foreign fighters in Syria is of course nothing new. New is only the publicity that these people are getting. The Hindu compares the situation in Syria to the war in Kashmir where foreign supported radical were also the ones who started the violent insurgency:
Young people in particular chafed under the Ba’ath party’s rule in Syria exactly as they chafed against “Delhi’s rule” in Kashmir. But while nearly everyone wanted a change, almost no one wanted it at the cost of a violent disruption of their lives. In neither case, therefore, was the state the first to resort to violence: On the contrary, both insurgencies had to be stoked, so the first to pick up the gun were the insurgents. In Syria this was done by Salafi/Takfiri Islamists who crossed the border from Jordan in March 2011 and holed up in the Omari mosque in Dera’a before launching targeted provocations, and attacks on police stations and government offices.
With the Turkish, Saudi and Qatari involvement now very visible and the kidnapping and killing Iranian pilgrims some of whom are retired revolutionary guards Iran officially declared itself to be part of the fight:
"What is happening in Syria is not an internal Syrian issue but a conflict between the axis of the resistance and its enemies in the region and the world," Mr. Jalili said in comments reported on Syrian state television. He added: "Iran will not tolerate, in any form, the breaking of the axis of the resistance, of which Syria is an intrinsic part."
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"Iran is saying: 'We are involved. We are inside the battle,' " said Talal Atrissi, a Lebanese political analyst and an expert on Iran. He added, "It means this is now a more international war."
It will soon be payback time for Turkey and those Gulf countries that support the insurgency.
Somewhat comically Hillary Clinton warns against the sectarian turmoil in Syria which is a direct consequence of her policy:
"Those who are attempting to exploit the situation by sending in proxies or terrorist fighters must realize that will not be tolerated, first and foremost by the Syrian people," she added.
Clinton of course does not mean the Salafists she and her allies are sending to wage a sectarian civil war in Syria. This warning is meant for Iran which might think of sending some of its own forces, one way or another, into the fight.
Washington plans to increase the effectiveness of the insurgency. On Monday the twitter account THE_47th correctly announced the desertion of the former Syrian prime minister before it was confirmed by anyone else. Yesterday it tweeted this stream:
- Big meetings in Turkey nxt week betwn newly defected Gens & reps from all FSA factions, incl loose ones in Jebel Azzawiya & Deir Ezzor.
- Part of Hilary Clinton's visit to Turkey next week is to be briefed on success of this meeting & to make sure the objectives are met.
- During the meetings, chains of command will further be implimented, inluding factions that are earlier have been fighting on their own.
- Again, most FSA is somehow linked, and coordinated, except in some areas of the Governorate of Homs, Jabal Azzawya & Deir Ezzor.
- Objectives: – Introducing the brigades that have been training on heat seeking missiles, assigning them to official brigades.
- Objectives: – Possibly renaming the Free Syrian Army to the National Free Syrian Army – Joining small brigades into big ones
- Last point eludes to joining small brigades into bigger ones, just like the Tawheed Brigade (Unity Brigade)
- Objectives: – Training on Geneva Human Rights Conventions – Overhaul of structure of the command – Intel meetings
- Manaf Tlass will also be present in next weeks meetings, including the defected officers & unnamed Brig Officers from the Republican Guard.
- This major initiative comes after Turkey warned Syrian oppo forces that the West is growing wary of Islamist elements, incohesion & HR.
- Turkey is leading the effort in advising the FSA, training, setting up, supporting & arming the FSA.
- There's a major campaign to put these "Abdulhameed bla bla Akbar brigade" into legit national units.
- Now the mtng takes place nxt week, but implimentation will take wks.
- Good news is: training FSA elements on heat seeking missiles & other SAMs has been done and we shall see it on the ground as of nxt week.
- anf FYI: most of these SAMs are from Libya for some reason.
- After successfuly limiting Assad's grnd movement (thanks to IEDs, defections & other anti tank weapons), the battle is now heading skywards.
We do not know if what The_47th says is correct or how much of it is disinformation. But as a medium range plan this reorganization of the insurgency surely makes sense. Parts of that announcement are certainly true. New pictures show insurgents with recoilless anti-tank rifles and man portable surface to air missiles. The playboy general Manaf Tlass seems to be Washington's choice as its front man for a new proxy state in Syria. But many in the opposition do not want him.
But with or without Tlass further the organizing and weaponizing of the radical foreign fighters is unlikely to be enough to bring the Syrian government down. Washington will need more tools and proxies and the most convenient way forward is to bring the Turkish army into the fight.
So when Hillary Clinton travels to Turkey next week this may be what will she will talk about:
[T]he subject she will be discussing in Ankara will not be a pleasing one at all. It is a nasty issue. She will either discuss, as it appears, the creation of a buffer zone in Syria along the Turkish border or Turkey’s striking of selective targets in Syria to speed up the collapse of the Basher al-Assad regime. Regardless, she will be discussing here how Turkey will be pulled into the Syrian mess as if it was not already in that mess up to its nose through legitimate refugee-sheltering programs, supporting and abetting Syrian rebel forces, as well as engaging in alleged clandestine terrorist-brewing efforts in secret camps.
But Turkey is also the weak point in this game. The Turkish foreign policy is in trouble for the support gives to the insurgency in Syria:
Turkey's worst nightmares are beginning to come true in Syria – a protracted sectarian civil war on its long southern border with the emergence of a de facto Kurdish-controlled region friendly to its main domestic foe.
The Syrian conflict is also poisoning Ankara's sensitive relations with Iran, Syria's vital regional ally, and Iraq and complicating ties with Russia, undermining a declared policy of "zero problems" with the neighbours.
Should the attempt to destroy Syria fail the Turkish foreign minister Davutoglu who is leading the project is likely to fall:
[T]he political future of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu very much depends on the fate of Syria. If the Assad regime falls, then Davutoglu may very well become prime minister. But if the regime survives, Turkey’s top diplomat will be scapegoated and possibly sacked.
The man who came up with a foreign policy of "zero problems towards neighbors" managed to create trouble with each of them.
Despite the looming trouble there are other hints that Turkey may indeed be gearing up for even more involvement. The Turkish prime minister Erdogan is rather suddenly making nice with the Turkish military which long opposed his islamization agenda. This lets one commentator ask:
There must a reason for this change in our esteemed prime minister, who has asserted a strong political will behind the coup-planning cases from the very beginning. Is there a possibility of a war? What can the reason for this change be?
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Terrorism in our backyard has been whipped up, countries that we knew as friends now have a hand in creating serious worries for Turkey. Let us leave these arguments over coups in the past and focus on our noble responsibilities.
Making nice with the army while his government holds 68 of its generals in jail will not be easy. I find it unlikely that the Turkish military really wants to fight Washington's proxy war in Syria for Erdogan's gain. Should Erdogan give his army the order to invade Syria the regime change operation against the Syrian government may end up changing his regime.