When the Syrian air defense shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet, according to Pentagon officials within Syrian airspace, the Turkish prime minister Erdogan claimed the jet was downed in international air space and issued a threat:
"The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a televised speech. "Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria and poses a security risk and danger will be regarded as a threat and treated as a military target."
This led me to ask Is This Erdogan's Backdoor For Implementing Safe Zones?
What is the distance that is described with "approaches the Turkish boarder from Syria"? Is this a fifty meter no-go zone or a 100 miles deep buffer zone within which Turkey will go after any Syrian troop movement?
The answer is in:
Two F-16s took off from İncirlik air base in the southern province of Adana at 9:12 a.m. as a Syrian MI-17 approached Turkish airspace from the south of Hatay.
Another alert was given at 3:05 p.m. when a Syrian MI-8 helicopter again approached Hatay and got as close as four miles. Two F-16 from the "scramble wing" took off from İncirlik air base and patrolled the border area.
The final scramble order was given at 6:05 p.m. as an MI-8 helicopter approached the border near the southeastern Mardin province. Two F-16s immediately took off from an airbase in Batman in southeastern Turkey.
No air space violations occurred in the incidents, the General Staff said.
As the Turkish journalist Mahi Zeynalov commented:
The incident shows Turkey won't allow any Syrian aircraft to approach closer than 4 miles to Turkish border, creating de facto buffer zone.
Yesterdays Syrian "action group" meeting in Geneva ended with Russia winning. None of the points Clinton would have liked in the closing document survived the negotiations. Russia again made it clear that it will not push for Assad to leave as this would likely lead to a destruction of the Syrian state as well as other severe consequences. Without Russia the UN and even NATO will not take further steps and Assad will now have lots of time to fight the insurgency down.
The one person that possibly could, and maybe still wants, to escalate is Erdogan. He certainly could provoke another incident like the jet shoot down and then declare war on Syria. But NATO is not with him and the leak by the U.S. government to the Wall Street Journal and earlier to the NYT about the correct location of the shoot down destroys Erdogan's credibility and thereby his ability to get foreign backup for further steps. The Russians added to that by offering radar data that would make Erdogan's position even more uncomfortable:
Russia possesses “objective observation data” concerning the downing of a Turkish jet off the Syrian coast one week ago and is prepared to present it, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference in Geneva on Saturday.
“We have our objective observation data and we are prepared to present it,” Lavrov said.
That was certainly meant as a Russian threat towards Erdogan and it can be added to the dicey issue of Turkish energy security which depends on natural gas delivery from Iran and Russia. Meanwhile Erdogan's political opposition is slowly waking up and infighting in Turkey about the current policies towards Syria has started.
The four mile buffer zone does matter much at the current state of the conflict in Syria. It will be again of interest once the insurgency is driven back to only hold that zone.
By then further pressure will have build up against Erdogan. His stance is already opposed by the Turkish public. His political opposition woke up. The U.S., which wants Assad weakened but not out, as well as Russia will continue their threats to uncover his claims about the jet downing as lies. As time passes his buffer zone threat will diminish.
It is always difficult to predict what Erdogan might do next. He seems to react rather spontaneously to events and then to hyperventilate over the issue. That could lead to this or that boarder clash with Syria. But for now I do not expect him, or anyone else, to launch a full blown external war.
Syria is now safe from external military intervention. If it sustains the capability to win the difficult fight against the foreign sponsored insurgency, which I think is likely, a few month from now this crisis will be over.