As I wrote four days ago:
The insurgents have now brought the war to Aleppo. Today several tweets from the insurgent side pointed to videos that claim to show insurgent reinforcement going to Aleppo. The Syrian government was also said to have reinforcement coming in and there is now unconfirmed reporting of its use of air force assets against the insurgency. That might all be the fog of this war or it might be the buildup to the Clausewitzian Schwerpunkt of this conflict. The place where both sides concentrate their forces for a decisive battle.
It seems that I was right with the prediction in that paragraph. The Schwerpunkt is Aleppo. Tony Karon compares the situation with the Ted offensive in Vietnam. There the North Vietnamese made a surprise attack on U.S. positions in all South Vietnamese cities and were beaten back. Militarily it was a near catastrophic loss for the North Vietnamese. But politically it was a great victory. The attack convinced the U.S. people that the fight was lost and it quickened the U.S. withdrawal.
What the Syrian insurgents are trying now looks quite similar. Militarily they are likely to loose big time. But they can not achieve a political victory against the Syrian government. The Syrian army has nowhere to withdraw to. The only political victory a battle around Aleppo could bring would be more active support from the outside like with a no-fly zone or something similar.
But that is not going to happen. The U.S. government and the Turkish government tell the insurgents that they are on their own:
Ms. Nuland[, a State Department spokeswoman,] also indicated that the United States was not reconsidering its stance against military intervention, saying, “We do not think pouring more fuel onto the fire is going to save lives.” And she drew a sharp distinction between Aleppo and the Libyan city of Benghazi, where fears of a slaughter by government troops led to a NATO bombing campaign that proved decisive in toppling Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi last year.
“The kind of groundswell call for external support that we’ve seen elsewhere is not there,” Ms. Nuland said.
and
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said he hopes the “real sons of Syria” will respond to an armed assault the Syrian regime is getting ready to launch in Aleppo.
“The regime is preparing for an attack with tanks and helicopters in the city center of Aleppo. It’s not clear what’s going to happen today. The foreign minister and I have been following the developments. I hope that the regime gets the answer it deserves from Syria’s own sons,” Erdoğan said in response to questions from reporters on Friday in London.
"From Syria’s own sons" and no one else. The Syrian government will not mind that at all.
The insurgents made a mistake in now concentrating the fight on Aleppo. While the news is not really clear it seems that only some western and eastern suburbs, less than 20% of the city, have some insurgency presence. The population in Aleppo is not with the insurgency. Videos of two demonstrations in Aleppo today showed only some 300 participant each. Thin local support will make the logistics for the insurgency quite difficult. They will have to bring in whatever they need. If the Syrian army is able to cut the insurgents supply lines into Aleppo it only has to fix them on the ground to slowly fight them down. With the world news diverted to the Olympics the timing of a fight about Aleppo could not be better for the Syrian government.
But that view may be too optimistic. I am not yet sure that the U.S. and Turkey have really given up their intervention drive. This or that trick to justify more steps against Syria may still be in the offering.
There have been pictures circulating today showing insurgents with gas mask which they claimed to have taken from the Syrian army. A UN resolution that the Saudi government wants to bring to the UN General Assembly on Monday ominously includes a paragraph about chemical weapons. After days of rumors about possible false flag attacks with chemical weapons the Syrian government had publicly promised to not use any such weapons against the insurgency. Why then is that paragraph in the Saudi draft needed?
— Bonus: Robert Fisk (for once sober) in an interview on Aleppo.