Continuing its current offensive the Syrian army took control of the rebel stronghold of Khan Sheikhoun in northern Idlib province. Throughout the last weeks the insurgents have lost ground wherever the army went. It is likely that they will now try to capture some other town and for the chase to continue for a while.
Hillary Clinton is ignoring the sorry state her mercenaries are in and tried to push the other participants of today's "enemies of Syria" conference to make Russia and China "pay a price" for not agreeing to her imperial project in Syria. Those other will nod and silently agree that to ask for 5 cents might be sufficient.
The Syrian brigade general Manaf Tlass has left the country. He has been under the Syrian governments scrutiny for some time and had lost his command in May 2011. His first cousin, Abdul Razak Tlass, is the leader of the infamous Al Farouq brigade in Rastan/Homs. As Manaf Tlass is a former regime stalwart he may not be welcomed by the exile opposition.
In other news:
The Iraqi foreign minister warned that further Al-Qaeda fighters are infiltrating into Syria.
It appears that Turkey had indeed asked for NATO to create a contingency plan for a no-fly zone over Syria after its reconnaissance jet was shot down by the Syrian air-defense. The request was turned down. This NATO smackdown news is another loss of face for Erdogan.
Bashar Assad appears self confident and straight in his interview with the Turkish daily Cumhurieyt: Part 1, 2, 3 and 4.
A new UN Secretary General report on the UN mission and the situation in Syria was published today. The observer mission is currently unable to work and is likely to be downsized. Some details from the report confirm aspects of the opposition that are missing in western reporting:
15. From 8 June, coinciding with the Free Syrian Army’s withdrawal of commitment to the six-point plan, citing lack of progress in its implementation, UNSMIS noted the intensification of armed conflict. The armed opposition and at least some elements of the political opposition, as well as the Government had, it appeared, determined to pursue a military strategy.
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The opposition escalated and intensified its attacks on Government checkpoints and positions in proximity to opposition locations, bombing of critical infrastructure, and assassinations of Government officials and senior officers.
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22. Daily shelling of Homs has continued since 25 May. The evacuation of civilians has not yet been possible, as armed opposition groups have not yet agreed to observe the necessary humanitarian pause, despite UNSMIS facilitation.
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29. UNSMIS also received reports from members of the public as well as of the Government of persons deprived of liberty by armed opposition groups. In most cases, these groups denied to UNSMIS that they had any persons in their custody. In several cases, opposition contacts confirmed to UNSMIS that such persons were in their custody. UNSMIS received reports from pro-Government individuals of demands for payment or ammunition in exchange for release of abductees held by armed opposition groups. Though not able to verify the claim, one reliable source informed UNSMIS that persons deprived of liberty by armed groups are frequently subjected to a quick “trial”, followed by arbitrary executions.
How can anyone suggest it would good for the Syrians to hand over their country to these folks?
One wonders why anyone would be astonished that Barclay and other banks fix the game to their advantage by fixing key interest rates. This has been obvious for a long time. The banks do this with the knowledge of every politician and regulator involved. They even publicly advertise it.
What might help against such overt and greedy market manipulation? Simple: put the management of any bank that breaks the rules into jail. For a long time. And throw away the keys.
The public should not work for the banks' interest but banks should work for the public interest. If they can not do that under private ownership, seize them and run them as public property.
Each time the Syrian opposition meets to show a united face it turns out to be less united than ever. Yesterday's meeting even included fist fights and flying shoes.
With each such stunts the opposition will lose outside support. That is good for Syria.
Meanwhile Bashar Assad, in an interview with the Turkish daily Cumhurieyt, started a full attack on Erdogan. In the first part of the interview he emphasized friendship with the Turkish people. In the second part he accuses Erdogan of having a "sectarian mentality" and of being merely a stooge for the United States-Israel-Gulf axis:
President al-Assad: […] Today, Erdogan is shedding the tears of hypocrites for the Syrian people. Why hasn’t he cried for those killed in some Gulf countries, although they are innocent, peaceful and unarmed? Why isn’t he speaking about democracy in some Gulf countries?
Journalist: Which country?
President al-Assad: Qatar, for instance. Why didn’t he do anything after the Marmara ship incident except shouting? Why did he challenge Israel, and then suddenly agreed to deploy the missile shield in Turkey? Did he deploy it in order to protect Turkey from the attack of a hostile country? Did America build these bases in order to protect itself against this region? Which country in the region has the capability to threaten America? No country. So, the answer is that he deployed it to protect Israel. These circumstances revealed Erdogan’s reality, no more, no less. Erdogan hasn’t changed. What has changed is the way the people of the region look at him. He has failed on the Arab arena. He no longer exists, neither him nor his credibility.
A good interview (which Erdogan tried to prevent) and recommended reading.
This, and the sorry state of the opposition, will increase the pressure on Erdogan to change course and to stop the support of the opposition. That will not happen immediately. But when the Syrian army has pushed the insurgents back into the Turkish border zone the question of further escalation or folding will have to be answered by Erdogan. My bet is that he will fold.
When the Syrian air defense shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet, according to Pentagon officials within Syrian airspace, the Turkish prime minister Erdogan claimed the jet was downed in international air space and issued a threat:
"The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a televised speech. "Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria and poses a security risk and danger will be regarded as a threat and treated as a military target."
This led me to ask Is This Erdogan's Backdoor For Implementing Safe Zones?
What is the distance that is described with "approaches the Turkish boarder from Syria"? Is this a fifty meter no-go zone or a 100 miles deep buffer zone within which Turkey will go after any Syrian troop movement?
The answer is in:
Two F-16s took off from İncirlik air base in the southern province of Adana at 9:12 a.m. as a Syrian MI-17 approached Turkish airspace from the south of Hatay.
Another alert was given at 3:05 p.m. when a Syrian MI-8 helicopter again approached Hatay and got as close as four miles. Two F-16 from the "scramble wing" took off from İncirlik air base and patrolled the border area.
The final scramble order was given at 6:05 p.m. as an MI-8 helicopter approached the border near the southeastern Mardin province. Two F-16s immediately took off from an airbase in Batman in southeastern Turkey.
No air space violations occurred in the incidents, the General Staff said.
As the Turkish journalist Mahi Zeynalov commented:
The incident shows Turkey won't allow any Syrian aircraft to approach closer than 4 miles to Turkish border, creating de facto buffer zone.
Yesterdays Syrian "action group" meeting in Geneva ended with Russia winning. None of the points Clinton would have liked in the closing document survived the negotiations. Russia again made it clear that it will not push for Assad to leave as this would likely lead to a destruction of the Syrian state as well as other severe consequences. Without Russia the UN and even NATO will not take further steps and Assad will now have lots of time to fight the insurgency down.
The one person that possibly could, and maybe still wants, to escalate is Erdogan. He certainly could provoke another incident like the jet shoot down and then declare war on Syria. But NATO is not with him and the leak by the U.S. government to the Wall Street Journal and earlier to the NYT about the correct location of the shoot down destroys Erdogan's credibility and thereby his ability to get foreign backup for further steps. The Russians added to that by offering radar data that would make Erdogan's position even more uncomfortable:
Russia possesses “objective observation data” concerning the downing of a Turkish jet off the Syrian coast one week ago and is prepared to present it, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference in Geneva on Saturday.
“We have our objective observation data and we are prepared to present it,” Lavrov said.
That was certainly meant as a Russian threat towards Erdogan and it can be added to the dicey issue of Turkish energy security which depends on natural gas delivery from Iran and Russia. Meanwhile Erdogan's political opposition is slowly waking up and infighting in Turkey about the current policies towards Syria has started.
The four mile buffer zone does matter much at the current state of the conflict in Syria. It will be again of interest once the insurgency is driven back to only hold that zone.
By then further pressure will have build up against Erdogan. His stance is already opposed by the Turkish public. His political opposition woke up. The U.S., which wants Assad weakened but not out, as well as Russia will continue their threats to uncover his claims about the jet downing as lies. As time passes his buffer zone threat will diminish.
It is always difficult to predict what Erdogan might do next. He seems to react rather spontaneously to events and then to hyperventilate over the issue. That could lead to this or that boarder clash with Syria. But for now I do not expect him, or anyone else, to launch a full blown external war.
Syria is now safe from external military intervention. If it sustains the capability to win the difficult fight against the foreign sponsored insurgency, which I think is likely, a few month from now this crisis will be over.
