Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 19, 2012
The U.S. Can Not “Grant Rights” To Iran

This administration spin piece in the New York Times on the upcoming negotiations with Iran has some revealing language:

For President Obama, the stakes are huge. A successful meeting could prolong the diplomatic dance with Tehran, delaying any possible military confrontation over the nuclear program until after the presidential election. It could also keep a lid on oil prices, which fell again this week in part because of the decrease in tensions. Lower gasoline prices would aid the economic recovery in the United States, and Mr. Obama’s electoral prospects.

Normal people would assume that successful negotiations would be those that lead to a peaceful solution of the issue. But the people talking to the NYT stenographer see success only in moving the day when the bombs start to fall. And as the oil issue lines explain the current negotiations are not at all about Iran's nuclear program but all about Obama's reelection. As soon as that is achieved new attempts for regime change in Iran, likely by force, will be back on top of the Obama agenda.

Then there is this:

Iranian officials have declared that the West has effectively endorsed Iran’s right to enrich uranium, a step they portrayed as a major strategic coup. American officials insist the United States has not done that and has been deliberately ambiguous about whether it would ever grant Iran the right to enrichment.

Which gods gave the U.S. the prerogative to "grant Iran" a right? Iran is a sovereign county. It does not need any rights "granted". As a member of the nonproliferation treaty its "inalienable right" to "to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination" have already been acknowledged by the other NPT members which includes the United States.

Megalomaniac language like this shows that absurdity has taken over U.S. foreign policy.

Comments

Just saw an RT report on TV that said much the same thing. It was covering the Obama-Hollande meeting at the G-8 and made a good point. Obama is in a bind it said. He needs to take a hardline on Iran talks for electoral reasons. But he also knows that if Europe goes ahead with the oil boycott in June-July it will cause a rise in oil price that would harm the US economy months before the election.
The RT report was suggesting the goal of the next talks between Iran and the P5 in Baghdad… will be to agree to more talks in the future. Thus allowing Europe the room to backpedal on the oil boycott (while talks are ongoing) and getting Obama past Nov 4th with the status quo in place.
Personally don’t know if this would be good for Iran or bad. On the plus side it would delay the full EU boycott another 6 months or so. It also gives them time to perfect the institutional knowledge of 20% enrichment and maybe build their stocks up more. But then again the US could be waiting Iran out. The sanctions are biting and hurting but not bringing down the country. Maybe the US wants to wait till Nov-Dec to see if the economic pain can destabilize the regime.
Lets not forget the US has more options than just military to practice regime change (as Syria knows well). Maybe the US is deciding Economic Warfare has a better chance of bringing down the Ayatollahs or at least softening it up before the big strike. A 6 month delay is also 6 months more of sanctions and the US has now got India onboard.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | May 19 2012 13:28 utc | 1

“Iran is a sovereign county.” Or rather, Iran insists on acting as a sovereign nation, which is the crux of the problem.
Rather than being US lap dogs, like Britain, France, Germany and Japan, Iran has this perverse desire to act in its own nation interest.
At least that’s how the megalomaniacs in Washington see it.

Posted by: JohnH | May 19 2012 14:06 utc | 2

This will help throw some light on what’s going on with Iran, who’s responsible and what to listen out for. It’s a link to MJ Rosenberg’s anti-AIPAC blog
http://mjayrosenberg.com/
To cut to the chase, scroll down to May 17
List of 74 Senate co-sponsors of AIPAC’s ‘Bomb Iran’ Bill that passed House today
When you’ve seen enough, scroll down to May 16 – it’s a list of the 401 House members who voted for AIPAC’s Bill and the 11 who voted against it. (Come back later to read the illuminating transcript of a long phone conversation between AIPAC big wigs).
Scroll down to May 15
Why you won’t read about AIPAC-authored House Iran Resolution except here.
Scroll down to May 14
AIPAC ‘Bomb Iran’ Resolution on House floor today
While you’re reading try not to forget that Israel and AIPAC are America’s (Congree Criitters’) be$t friend.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 19 2012 14:18 utc | 3

I don’t quite know why all this rhetoric is in use… it could be an attempt to make the world belief that there was a real possibility of an invasion of Iran…. (which I don’t think is possible unless the US can get its troops out of Afghanistan first…) But then again it could be a diversion… for some other issue e.g. to distract the world from Fukushima that needs noting more than a weak earthquake/ one small missile, in order to melt-down, spreading 9 times the radioactive materials Chernobyl spread, this would of course destroy Japan (economically) and increase the cancer rate in US…

Posted by: simon | May 19 2012 14:20 utc | 4

@ 4.
Anything’s possible but keeping in mind that AIPAC are the folks behind the Bomb Iran meme AND the folks who’d rather people talked about Iran than about Jews killing Palestinians and stealing their land, it’s probably more about that than Fukushima – which I’m confident AIPAC doesn’t give a Fuke about, so to speak.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 19 2012 14:55 utc | 5

@ Colm O’ Toole
In fact far from “biting and hurting” the sanctions have been completely ineffective. Iran has plenty of places to sell oil, and there is no sign that Saudi Arabia or anyone else can make up the deficiency. Iranian economy is still growing, non oil exports are growing, trade is increasing, etc. In addition, the sanctions will give Iran an additional incentive to promote a further increase in domestic manufacturing, which will both cut down on imports and allow non oil exports to increase further. The US will not be able to “wait Iran out.”

Posted by: Jim Steel | May 19 2012 14:57 utc | 6

Under Obama US hegemony (by a certain class which does not include the 99%) has taken leaps and bounds forward. Because it is not only Iran, but Yemen and Pakistan, parts of Africa, etc. Absolutely anything goes, and nobody protests (minus some commentators and some orgs. involved in civil rights.) There is no resistance by anyone, any institutional body, that counts. International law and treaties are de facto defunct, and US diplomacy is not diplomacy any longer, it is coercion, trouble-making, arm-twisting, threat.
Everybody seems to pretend this is not so. Obama is a great president, he is a wonderful person, the terrorist threat is real, Osama bin deaded, etc. etc.
Vestiges of opposition in Russia and China. Today, Syria. Iran of course. Cuba. Etc. We all know this.
I don’t agree with Jim above. Although the oil issue is complicated, that maybe does not matter too much for Iran itself at present. But sanctions are hitting Iranians hard in the shape of inflation, rising prices, and growing impossibility of doing business of any kind (banking sanctions.)

Posted by: Noirette | May 19 2012 15:06 utc | 7

The same gods who said;Whom the gods destroy,they first make crazy.
Amateurs,posers and idoits.(idoit;those who can’t recognize their idiocy)
I wanna vote for the alleged nutjob who is against all this real nuttery,Dr.Ron Paul.
Please Allah,give US the option to do so.

Posted by: dahoit | May 19 2012 15:36 utc | 8

NYT stenographer
Good one that, b.
@ Noirette
Yes, the arm-twisting is formidable. Pakistan has resisted for a while, but seems to be caving in now. However, below the state-level, at the people-level, the resistance goes on, and is much more difficult to deal with. Witness the outcome in Afghanistan. That is the obvious limitation in US state power — it can cow down almost any government but it cannot beat a people determined to resist; it can destroy them but it cannot defeat them.

Posted by: FB Ali | May 19 2012 15:56 utc | 9

fb ali, yes, but there will be so much death, so much pain, and the victors are no really in doubt.

Posted by: Noirette | May 19 2012 16:49 utc | 10

It is very difficult to know what is going on, but here is my take.
The US is not going to attack Iran. We have already decided to let Iran enrich fuel for their reactors. Iran may or may not give up enrichment to 20% — I suspect they will trade that right for some concession or another with the US and its lackeys.
All of this belligerent talk is just noise. First Israel will try to sabotage the negotiations and her allies are trying to poison the atmosphere with rumors. Ambassador Shapiro’s hawkish statements in Israel a few days back is part of that move — do note, Panetta quickly disavowed his words. Obama for his re-election purposes must project strength and not appear to be weak in the face of the Iranian “threat”. That talk is just political theater and is not statements of policy.
The fact is that the US military, intelligence and some sensible career people at state have concluded that the price of an attack on Iran are just too high. I am convinced that they have won Obama’s backing.

Posted by: ToivoS | May 19 2012 18:08 utc | 11

however Fukushima shows us all the danger of nuclear power

Posted by: brian | May 19 2012 18:54 utc | 12

If not for AIPAC money, Obama could project strength by dismissing to bow for zionist pressure. After the election, he isn’t so bound by that connection, and we are going to see a different take on foreign policy, towards Iran at least.

Posted by: Alexander | May 19 2012 19:23 utc | 13

If you believe Richard Silverstein, Israel wants to attack before the US election.
What is said in the States is likely election talk, not to be taken too seriously. What is said in Israel is part of a political game. Netanyahu’s main aim is to divert attention from the seizure of land in the West Bank. If he does actually carry out the attack, it will be to cover an expulsion of the Palestinians. Netanyahu is not actually bothered about Iran, as many have said.
Under the circumstances, the way the US expresses its views doesn’t matter too much. Any bellicose language will do.

Posted by: alexno | May 19 2012 19:26 utc | 14

shapiro’s statements toivos references are all the rage in the press, when i checked this morning only the nyt wasn’t all systems go on the shapiro quotes. there were over a thousand little papers all across thUS carrying that headline, why? and here’s wapo, actually AP mimicking netanyahu Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu: skeptical Iran will commit to end nuclear program..as if he was the leader of the universe wrt what would fly in the p5 baghdad negotiations.

He repeated Israeli demands to be met for the negotiations to be successful: all uranium enrichment inside Iran has to be frozen, its current stockpile of enriched uranium has to be shipped out of the country and an underground enrichment facility near the city of Qom has to be dismantled.

here’s what i think is going on. the big iran news this week is, as horsewhisper mentioned, the bill for congress aipac wrote that everyone fell in line to sign intended to force the US into war. but i don’t think obama or the state department or the military is enthusiastic for war. nor a lot of other actors (RAND CORP: “diplomacy and economic sanctions are better suited than military action”). but aipac has congress by the balls and the new legislation was designed to force war if iran had nuclear ‘capabilities’. now, enter the amendment to the bill offered by Representatives John Conyers (D-MI), Keith Ellison (D-MN), Walter Jones (R-NC) and Ron Paul (R-TX), to “clarify that nothing in the bill shall be construed as authorizing the use of force against Iran.”
most americans no nothing of either the aipac legislation or the last minute amendment. so the big headlines blathering shapiro’s statement ‘US ready to strike! is all about staying on message and the nyt is the ‘compromise’ article. that’s how i read it anyway. by compromise meaning one step away from the devil.

Posted by: annie | May 19 2012 19:32 utc | 15

just to press my point, if you google news for israel, by far the most stories go to:

Search Results
Israel becomes lab for electric car network

msnbc.com – 3 hours ago
Israeli entrepreneur Shai Agassi has begun rolling out the world’s first nationwide electric car network. Now, will the drivers come?
World’s first nationwide electric car network gets its first roll-out in Israel‎ Washington Post
Israel tests electric car network‎ SBS
all 306 news articles »
Syrian opposition: Israel is Assad’s biggest ally

Ynetnews – 4 hours ago
News, Mideast News: Syrian National Council head Burhan Ghalioun tells Saudi paper that Syrian opposition has no intention to normalize …
Israel’s turn against the Assad regime‎ MENAFN.COM
Israel Changes Stance on Syria, Now Favors Toppling Assad‎ Al-Monitor
all 608 news articles »
Robert Fulford: Israel is a nation of survivors

National Post – 8 hours ago
A nation of survivors and the descendants of survivors, Israel has now survived for 64 difficult years. By this point it would seem to have staked …
Palestinians see settlements thwarting state‎ Yahoo! News UK
all 63 news articles »
Al-Arabiya
Tantalising Tel Aviv, Israel

The Australian – 5 hours ago
OUR guide Igal explains that in Tel Aviv people never stay at home.
AFP
Top Israel court tightens enforcement of equal pay

Sacramento Bee – 10 hours ago
Israeli feminists on Friday welcomed a Supreme Court ruling they say will help enforce equal pay laws for men and women.
US envoy to Israel: US ready to strike Iran

Faribault County Register – 14 hours ago
JERUSALEM (AP) — The U.S. has plans in place to attack Iran if necessary to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons, Washington’s …
In-Depth: US Envoy to Israel Says Nation Is Ready on Iran‎ Pittsburgh Post Gazette
Blog: US Envoy to Israel: Military Option for Iran ‘Ready’ if Necessary‎ Voice of America (blog)
Israel attack strategy coming together‎ WND.com
Chicago Tribune – The Jewish Journal of Greater L.A.
all 1764 news articles »

1764 news articles on shapiro’s assertions. now why would that be?

Posted by: annie | May 19 2012 19:40 utc | 16

oh, the lobby/israel is trying their damndest to torpedo the talks. that’s why.

Posted by: annie | May 19 2012 19:44 utc | 17

those sanctions supposed to start 1st of July – they are a huge own goal – as they sanction not only Iranian firms but any global firms continuing to cooperate with Iranian firms. So guess who is going to trade with whom
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-07/iran-russia-replace-dollar-with-rial-ruble-in-trade-fars-says.html
Turkish gold sales to Iran soar as sanctions bite
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-gold-turkey-iran-idUSBRE84G0QR20120517
http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/pakistan-negotiates-for-indian-and-iranian-power-1.1025096
and so on and so on …
as to the military option – the US needs a lot of good will if they ever want to withdraw from Afghanistan, or want to keep those supply lines …
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/world-politics/hands-off-syria-and-iran-russia/story-fn9hkofv-1226360612995
Expect a solution before 1st of July …

Posted by: somebody | May 19 2012 19:49 utc | 18

re somebody 18
There’s evidence that Iranian enterprises are active and increasingly so, never mind the sanctions.
Where I was in Turkmenistan in April, it was an Iranian company that was building the new railway line. The local route was flooded with Iranian 40-ton trucks, with exports.
I would say we are heading for a new Iranian economic expansion, much like Turkey.

Posted by: alexno | May 19 2012 20:12 utc | 19

Being cut off from the international economy, Iran might dodge completely the recession most others are afflicted with, and might in the long run gain from the restructuring imposed by the sanctions.

Posted by: Alexander | May 19 2012 20:20 utc | 20

Alexander, cut of from international economy – are you joking?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
somehow over here the world still seems flat :-))

Posted by: somebody | May 19 2012 22:06 utc | 21

Well, somewhat restricted in the western direction at least.

Posted by: Alexander | May 19 2012 23:20 utc | 22

:-))
thanks alexno, researching railways is fun, Iran actually seems not just to build it in Turkmenistan but also to finance it
“Iran’s part of Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway to wrap up by October …The Islamic Development Bank is financing Turkmenistan’s part of the road, and over 30 percent (over 250 kilometers) of 700 kilometers have already been completed.
Iranian “Pars Energy” company is responsible for the construction of this part of the railway.”
http://www.payvand.com/news/12/apr/1275.html
and there is this on the “New Silk Road”
“All Silk Roads Lead to Tehran
Sanctions aren’t the answer. If Washington is serious about building a new economic and security architecture across South and Central Asia, it can’t avoid working with Iran.,,,
New Delhi, Tehran, and Kabul have planned a railway line along the entire route to facilitate trade — particularly of Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion in minerals — to and from Central Asia. New Delhi — like Ankara and others — is coming up with “creative” ways to engage with Iran while insulating itself from punitive action by the United States, including building new, independent corporate entities that do not participate in Western markets.

Posted by: somebody | May 19 2012 23:50 utc | 23

I’m always a bit fuzzy when it comes to Economics but it certainly seems clear that the Iran sanctions are biting. The question is how much is it biting?
1) Iran’s parliment on Friday approved this years budget. It showed that Iranian government is spending 9% less than the previous year (around 462 Billion in US Dollars).
Source: http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/iran-s-parliament-approves-462-bn-budget_776072.html
2) Irans currency: The Rial has fallen in value against the US Dollar around 40% since Jan 2012 when the sanctions hit. It fell rapidly at first but recovered in the last few months but is now down again. Of course their is the silver lining that a currency fall makes exports cheaper helping local businesses.
3) Oil: Is harder to tell. The Iranian Oil Ministry says its exports haven’t been reduced. But a good few EU countries have already stopped buying, as well as India cutting supplies from 18 Million Tonnes to 11 Million Tonnes and Japan announcing a 10% cut. But oil is hard to track and no way of proving that these cuts have taken place, especially with Iran shipping with GPS trackers turned off.
Source: http://www.payvand.com/news/12/may/1172.html
All this is really to say I think the sanctions are having an effect (maybe dragging the economy down 5-10%). But I doubt it will be enough to cause Iranians to plead for mercy or topple the government. After all Iran survived much worse in the 1980’s when the Iran-Iraq war crippled the economy and SCUD missiles where falling on Tehran daily. It was also much worse off in the 1990’s when the hangover off the war meant the country was heavily in debt and needed huge repairs for infastructure. I don’t see them backing down and you can’t just cut-off the world’s 2nd larger oil supplier.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | May 20 2012 0:01 utc | 24

All the Iran Talk, and other diversionary (from Palestine) bluster from ‘Israel’ isn’t improving the SLC’s image; in fact quite the reverse.
Gilad Atzmon sums up the results of a 2011/12 BBC global unpopularity poll (22 countries, 24,000 participants) which suggests that ‘Israel’ has finally managed to make itself as welcome and popular as a fart in a phone booth.
http://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/israel-as-popular-as-north-korea-according-to-bbc-poll.html#entry16312517

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 20 2012 4:09 utc | 25

The outcome of any successful deal is predetermined.
a) The Iranians will agree to freeze further 20% enrichment and to mothball Fordo (but not dismantle it)
b) The P5+1 agree in return to “allow” Iran to keep that current stockpile and use it to fuel the Tehran Research Reactor for the next five years
c) The P5+1 agrees that when that stockpile is exhausted then Iran can buy more 20% uranium on the open market.
d) Iran reserves the right to reopen Fordo IF the west reneges on point (c)
e) The P5+1 agrees that Iran has a right to do (d) IF the west reneges on (c)
That is a good deal, because it is a win for BOTH sides i.e.
1) Iran saves face, it does not have to dismantle an existing facility, it gets assurances regarding the TRR **and** it retains an insurance policy against the west reneging on those assurances.
2) The P5+1 gets the Iranians to agree to freeze the program – and the facility – that it says most worries it **and** it has an assured mechanism for keeping them frozen (i.e. so long as Iran can buy that 20% stuff then it won’t make any more of the stuff).
Win/Win and nobody dies.
What’s not to like?

Posted by: Johnboy | May 20 2012 5:15 utc | 26

What’s not to like?
Promises of friendly co-operation with Uncle Sam are a 24 carat guarantee of duplicity and attempted annihilation in the near future.
Saddam?
Gaddafi?
Assad?
People who think Iranians are insane haven’t compared them with Americans or Israelis…

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 20 2012 6:05 utc | 27

On the question of impact of international trade sanctions, here’s something dated 9 Feb 2012:

Turkey’s ambassador to the EU, Selim Yenel, said that while the trade sanctions against Syria may have some economic impact they had little chance of toppling Assad’s government and were more likely to strengthen the government’s popular support. “The Syrian middle class is still supporting Assad. They are afraid of what comes after him…. We don’t believe in sanctions. They never work. That’s why we are against them in Iran,” he said. “In Syria they will hurt people. Whether in the long term they will turn them into more vocal opposition, I don’t know. We have never seen that happen before.” In Iran, Yenel said there was evidence of sanctions strengthening support for the government, rather than convincing the Iranian leadership to negotiate over its nuclear program, as is the stated aim of the West’s sanctions. “Everyone in Iran is for the nuclear program. So sanctions are not the answer,” he said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/us-turkey-syria-iran-idUSTRE8181DE20120209

When citizens feel adversely affected by international trade sanctions and they look around at where the adverse effect is coming from, they find it’s coming from the foreigners and not from their government. The record in Iran over the last decade is that when trade sanctions and other ploys of foreign governments are directed against Iran the Iranians for the most part rally in support of their country and their government. The same is and will be true in Syria.
Despite the destructiveness and futility of trade sanctions, the Western powers will continue to get political support from their electorates to use them on the grounds that the target countries or their governments are bad, and bad countries deserve to be punished. The people in the target countries don’t see their government as bad, so they see the trade sanctions as unjustified. Especially since the unjustified sanctions primarily affect the country’s economy and people as a whole, and not the government as such.

Posted by: Parviziyi | May 20 2012 7:39 utc | 28

The Iranians are never going to give up their right to mine and process uranium on their own. They make quite some money exporting electricty, and are going to keep their position as a net energy exporter n the future. Guaranteed. And they are not likely to shut down their underground facilities, rather safeguard more of their centrifuges.

Posted by: Alexander | May 20 2012 7:50 utc | 29

parviziyi 28:
‘In Iran, Yenel said there was evidence of sanctions strengthening support for the government’
isnt this antidemocratic and against international law(provoking a coup)? foreign politicians seeking to remove a govt of another country…isnt it up to the people of that country to decide what they want? does noone see this? the media dont

Posted by: brian | May 20 2012 8:24 utc | 30

‘the Western powers will continue to get political support from their electorates to use them on the grounds that the target countries or their governments are bad, a’
really? since when are the electorates consulted on foreign policy? noone ever asked me about sanctions

Posted by: brian | May 20 2012 8:25 utc | 31

The point that Obama (Bush, others, ..) support supposed pro-Israel policies such as a potential attack on Iran because of AIPAC money and other donations from such quarters with a view to winning elections is way overrated. (Came up at the top of this thread.)
If Ron Paul is so popular, it is for a large part because of his isolationist, anti-war stance. That might not be first for many of his supporters, but they all accept it. And he is not spending big money on any campaign.
Dems who worship Obama as some kind of Supreme Leader or Image of My Class, in an atmosphere of quasi-religious cult, ignoring his actions as if only his face, clothes and wife counted, will vote for him no matter what, he could decide to attack Mars, send dissidents to camps for re-education, build Buddhist temples across America, ban poodles or scissors.
Disappointed, soured Democrats, and independents, not to mention a bunch of Centrist Republicans, hold, in a majority, or damn close to, an anti-war – re. Iraq, Afgh., potentially Iran – opinion.
A candidate such as an incumbent like Obama who espoused anti-war policies, with the proper speeches, and all else being calibrated to ‘acceptable’ would easily gain more than 60% of the vote. Without any big outlay in cash.
Of course, that is what the PTB seek to prevent. TV ads are horrendously expensive, they don’t actually serve to promote a candidate, but to focus on wedge issues, image, meaningless crap, to dumb down US citizens, and to focus on a competition that can only be won by those who bow down to take money to win, thereby becoming servants to donors, while the Media grabs their rake. That this state of affairs is not necessary is what many are trying to hide. Obama is not pandering for election money, that is a false excuse or reading.
Btw:
An amendment that would legalize the use of propaganda on American audiences is being inserted into the latest defense authorization bill, BuzzFeed has learned.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mhastings/congressmen-seek-to-lift-propaganda-ban

Posted by: Noirette | May 20 2012 14:17 utc | 32

Yeah,the alleged peace candidate,alleged Muslim,and alleged socialist was elected with a sizable majority.And he turned out to be a Tel Avivan candidate.
What a scam.

Posted by: dahoit | May 20 2012 16:25 utc | 33

@27 Hoarsewhisperer. The point I would make is that under the proposal as I suggested then the Iranians are covered against duplicity by the P5+1 i.e. if five years down the track “the west” refuses to sell Iran any fuel for the TRR then that refusal will invoke the clause in the agreement that says:
**IF** such a thing happens
**THEN** Iran can kick-start Fordo again.
It puts both sides on notice that hanky-panky and changes-of-mind are not going to work.
What’s not to like about that?

Posted by: Johnboy | May 21 2012 0:31 utc | 34

I highly doubt the Iranians are going to submit to a scheme making them dependent on foreign supply of uranium fuel, and putting their extensive underground centrifuge facilities out of use. They are completely selfsufficient in nuclear fuel once all facilities are up and running, and I see no reason why they would let that change.

Posted by: Alexander | May 21 2012 8:52 utc | 35

“I highly doubt the Iranians are going to submit to a scheme making them dependent on foreign supply of uranium fuel, and putting their extensive underground centrifuge facilities out of use.”
Agreed.
But they already have a five-year stockpile of 20% uranium that can be turned into fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor, so they can afford to agree to a five-year moratorium on further enrichment to 20%; such an agreement costs them nothing.
But what they have to resist are calls to DISMANTLE Fordo, because that will leave them wide open to being dudded by “the West” in five years time.
So they will offer to mothball Fordo, but they will insist upon a clause that says that
IF the west refuses to sell 20% uranium for the Tehran Research Reactor
THEN the Iranians can invoke their right to restart Fordo and restock their stockpile.
That’s a good deal, because it provides a DISincentive for either side to “dud” the other.

Posted by: Johnboy | May 22 2012 1:18 utc | 36