It seems obvious now that the U.S. and its NATO appendix lost the war in Afghanistan:
Over the past two years, the farming districts of Zhari, Panjway and Maiwand northwest of Kandahar city—the cradle of the Taliban movement—were the key battlefield of the U.S.-led military campaign in southern Afghanistan. The U.S. has held up its successes in routing the Taliban there as proof that it is winning the war.
Pushed out of these rural districts by the surge, the Taliban last year concentrated on Kandahar city, ramping up their campaign of assassinating government officials. This fighting season, however, they appear to have trickled back to their old home turf.
Enemy activity in the three farming districts has risen by 31% this fighting season, said U.S. Army Maj. Gen. James Huggins, the commander of coalition forces in southern Afghanistan. This upsurge contrasts with a sharp decline in attacks inside Kandahar city and in the neighboring southern provinces of Uruzgan and Zabul.
"The good news is we have been able to provide the major population center a tremendous amount of security. But it has pushed the insurgency into Zhari, Panjway and Maiwand," Gen. Huggins explained in an interview.
The U.S. surge troops squeezed the water filled balloon in the rural areas and the Taliban evaded the squeeze and fought in the city. Two years later the surge troops retreat from the rural area and press the balloon in the city. The Taliban flow back into the rural areas.
The U.S. military claims, of course, a double victory. First it won in the countryside and now it has won in the city. In fact nothing has changed at all. Two years on the surge had zero effect on the overall situation.
With limited resources and time the U.S. and NATO are losing the war.
Another example: This morning the ISAF Twitter account @ISAFmedia tweeted:
IJC morning op update: 10 day op in Farah province completed with multiple ins. detained and weapons confiscated. http://ow.ly/aY0ar
The link goes to the usual morning update which said:
[A] combined Afghan and coalition security force detained multiple suspected insurgents during a 10-day operation that ended Sunday in Khake Safayd district, Farah province. During the operation, the combined force searched a suspicious location and detained the suspected insurgents without incident. The force also recovered 21 IEDs, four rocket-propelled grenades, one mortar, seven AK-47 rifles, one machine gun, more than 8 pounds (4 kilograms) of opium and 30 motorbikes during a subsequent search of the area. The suspected insurgents were taken in for questioning and the weapons cache was destroyed.
But just a few minutes after that hit the wires reality caught up with such success phantasies:
At least 11 people died on Thursday after Taliban insurgents attacked a provincial governor’s office, but were beaten back by security forces, Afghan officials said.
The 10 a.m. attack was apparently an attempt to assassinate the governor of western Farah Province, Mohammad Akram Khapalwak, who was in his office at the time, and the insurgents once again resorted to the ruse of disguising themselves as Afghan police officers, according to the police security chief for the province, Mohammad Ghaus Malyaar.
A ten day operation in Farah province manages to find a few guns and to steals 30 motorbikes. But at the same time the Taliban, laughing at such diversion, successfully attack the province governors office and kill nearly all his bodyguards. It is obvious that the propaganda does not match the facts on the ground.
It is no wonder the U.S. and NATO are, rather silently, Beating A Retreat.
Like in the two scenes above the marketeers of upcoming NATO summit will have difficulties to patch over the obvious rush to the exit from this lost war.
