Peter Lee aka China Hand has a good piece with a lot of background on the Chen Guangcheng drama at ATOL. The local rabble rouser Chen had a good deal. He left from the U.S. embassy with a promise that he would be able to study at a place away from the local security apparatus that was bothering him and his family. He then suddenly changed his mind and asked for asylum for himself and his family in the United States.

At his blog Lee adds:

Looking at today’s shenanigans, and Chen’s metamorphosis from brave legal activist to handwringing exile in waiting, I have the distinct impression that people invested in the current freedom fighter vs. tyrant polarity prevailed on Chen to blow this deal up.

It wasn't the confused and frightened man's idea to change course. That definitely came from the outside.

The involvement and of China Aid, which is an evangelical ministry in Texas run by one Bob Fu, and the Chinese lawyer and member of the Chinese Christian Rights Defence Association Teng Biao point to the deep involvement of the right-wing evangelical anti-abortion movement in the United States. The movement has certainly no interest in calming the case down. It would rather burn Chen than miss this opportunity to hit against China as well as this administrations policies.

It was this Teng Biao who in a phone call convinced Chen Guangcheng to change his mind after he left the U.S. embassy and to then suddenly ask for asylum in the United States:

Teng Biao: Oh, it's Guangcheng! How are you? I haven't seen you in a few years now!
…
TB: Many netizens are out there at the hospital to meet you, but they must all have been blocked. If I were in Beijing, I'd probably be blocked from visiting you to. I'll try to find some way of meeting you. I heard you're going back to school to study, where will that be?

CGC: Yes, but I haven't decided where.

TB: Guangcheng, you absolutely must not do this. It's going to be very dangerous for you to stay on in China. Seriously.

CGC: [Silence]

TB: I heard one of the guards watching over you was detained, the one that helped you escape. Is this true?

CGC: Nobody helped me escape. I escaped by myself.
…
TB: I suggest you get back to the embassy ASAP.

CGC: That's not possible now.

TB: Is the embassy not allowing you back? Or is the Chinese government not allowing you back?

CGC: I…

TB: Guangcheng, even if you told the embassy you won't ever go back, there's still time for you to change your mind, and it would be totally understandable. Please reconsider this whole thing. You know — Kegui, Chen Hua and everyone at home is in a very dangerous situation. Pearl's been taken away. Even if you're not considering this for yourself, then at least for your family and for those that tried to help you, you should try to get back to the embassy and make your way to the US. If this thing hangs in the balance, it's going to be very dangerous for everyone. We understand that you don't want to leave that you want to stay behind and try to do something. But you need to understand that if you stay behind, there'll be nothing you can do. Even if you don't work on any sensitive case, life will be bad enough if you're trying to do your own thing, you'll meet obstacles everywhere. Some of our friends have faced harrassment even trying to run their own little business. You've done way too much for human rights in CHina, you've made too many sacrifices. We don't want you to sacrifice or give more of yourself. Please reconsider.

CGC: I understand.

To me this call is a manipulation of one rather naive mind by someone who has an interest in steering up more conflict.

There was a congressional meeting yesterday which was obviously planned to push the case:

The Capitol Hill hearing was set up by a commission formed to monitor China's human rights record. The Congressional-Executive Commission on China is led by two Republicans, Christopher Smith of New Jersey and Frank Wolf of Virginia.
…
Also testifying was Bob Fu, a Chinese-American pastor and rights activist who was in touch with Mr. Chen during his flight last week from his home.

Does the "in touch during his flight" and Teng Boao's mentioning of a bribed guard mean that the whole "flight" was organized by China Aid?

Christopher Smith of New Jersey is a radical anti-abortion legislator as is Frank Wolf. Chen's original cause was to fight against forced abortions in China which are in some cases still used by local administrations to implement China's one-child policy. (Is ist somewhat tronically that Chen has two children?)

At the congressional hearing China Aid boss Bob Fu phoned up Chen in his Beijing hospital at some 3:00 am local Beijing time. The phone was then held to a microphone so the whole committee could hear him:

In his telephone testimony to Washington, Chen wasn’t asked his opinion of American authorities’ actions. But he did say that he’d like to meet U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is in Beijing for a previously scheduled high-level meeting on a variety of issues, and “thank her face to face.”

Apart from those evangelical folks who turned Chen's plans around to embarras the Obama administration the Chinese state will also like the current situation. To have the Obama administration under pressure during the current U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be helpful. China can now show a friendly public face by offering Chen to study abroad while quietly asking the Obama administration to pay a price to end the affair. "Do you really want to sell those F-16 fighters to Taiwan?"