Before the war on Libya, France and Britain planned a military exercise against an assumed north African country. That maneuver turned into the war on Libya. Currently the U.S. air force is training with the Turkish air force how to defeat other countries' air defenses. Syria has a capable air defense and there is intensifying planing for a war against it.
We can conclude that the current maneuver is part of a bigger plan, like the British and French one was, and that it will probably turn into a war on Syria.
In June 2011 I wrote about Libya: Military Exercises As War Deception. Here is the first part of that post:
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In November 2010 Britain and France signed a new defense cooperation pact. Under the umbrella of the agreement a week long common air force exercise was announced in January 2011:
The French Air Force has organized a large-scale, weeklong exercise with the British Royal Air Force – which is expected to send over Tornado fighters, aerial tankers and AWACS aircraft – as part of the enhanced cooperation agreed between the two countries, an Air Force spokesman here said Jan. 13.
The exercise, dubbed Southern Mistral, will be held March 21-25 in France, the spokesman, Maj. Eric Trihoreau, said.
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On March 20 the U.K., France and the U.S. started to bomb Libya. Southern Mistral was superseded by a real war:
Due to the current international events, exercise Southern Mistral has been suspended.
There is a long history of announced military exercises as cover for starting a shooting war.
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So far the excerpt from my June 2011 post. Now we read this: U.S. pilots plant SEAD with Turkish counterparts
SEAD is the acronym for "Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses". From the piece:
3/9/2012 – KONYA, Turkey (AFNS) — The Turkish and U.S. air forces continue to combine their air assets and share tactics in large-force employments during Exercise Anatolian Falcon 2012 here March 5-16.
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SEAD, the 480th FS's specialty, is any action taken to deter enemy surface-to-air missiles or anti-aircraft artillery. The objective is not the destruction of the ground-based threats but to subdue those threats until an air mission is complete.
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For Anatolian Falcon 2012, each air mission has an objective such as the destruction of a plotted target or the defeat of enemy aircraft. Mission planners assign groups of aircraft-specific tasks, either offensive counter air, SEAD or ground attack.Both nations employ the F-16 Fighting Falcon, a multi-faceted fighter aircraft that can combat threats in the air or on the ground.
While this warm up exercise happens the Washington Post today reports about intensifying administration planing for attacking Syria:
The Obama administration and its allies and international partners have begun serious discussions about potential military involvement in Syria, even as they continue to press for nonviolent solutions to the carnage there.
With little progress made in the two weeks since 70 countries and international institutions pledged in Tunis to concentrate their efforts on humanitarian and diplomatic fronts, there is a growing willingness to consider additional options.
Possibilities include directly arming opposition forces, sending troops to guard a humanitarian corridor or “safe zone” for the rebels, or an air assault on Syrian air defenses, according to officials from the United States and other nations opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Are we seeing the same plan that was executed in Libya now being executed against Syria?
- Incite demonstrations against the foreign government
- Have special operations snippers shoot at the demonstrators to turn them towards violence
- Have a trained rebel force of extremists come in from the outside and supply money, weapons and communication equipment to anyone who wants to fight
- Implement paralysing economic sanctions against the foreign government
- Embed western media with the armed rebels to run an information campaign against the foreign government as "killing its own civilians"
- Make exiles form an alternative government that can be recognized as legitimate
- Prepare your air forces to fight against the foreign government troops
- Spread rumors of air-attacks against the rebels to justify a "no-fly zone"
- Should the rebels not be able to win on their own reinforce them with "no-fly zone" air attacks and more weapons
These steps were followed in Libya and we seem them being followed in Syria. It now seems obvious that the rebellion in Libya as well as current ongoings in Syria are each part of larger long range plans concocted and executed by the U.S. and its allies.