After six quiet weeks the U.S. yesterday again fired a drone on alleged "militants" in Pakistan.
This will have serious consequences in Pakistan. As former Reuters South Asia correspondent Myra MacDonald opines:
Perhaps the most accurate definition of the drone war which has been fought over the tribal areas of Pakistan would be this – making the same mistake over and over and expecting a different outcome.
The outcome is higher anti-American sentiment in Pakistan which will necessitate that both the government and the military will have to take stronger anti-American positions even if some within them might have agreed to the drone strike as, two days ago, a piece in the Express Tribune let one assume.
The drone attack comes at a moment where the Pakistani government, the military and the Supreme Court are at each others throat.
Two conflicts have build up over the memogate and corruption amnesty cases. In a interview with the Chinese People's Daily Prime Minister Gilani accused the head of the army Kayani and the head of its spy service ISI Pascha of illegal behavior. Both had given testimony to the Supreme Court without the approval of the government. Kayani was in China when Gilani gave the interview to the Chinese press.
Through its public relation arm the ISI rejected the accusations and warned the government of "very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the Country".
In a tit for tat reaction the Gilani government fired the defense secretary, a position different than the defense minister, because of "misconduct" in the memogate case. The defense secretary was a retired General and represented the voice of the military in the government. The government now gave his position to the a female civilian secretary of the cabinet Nargis Sethi.
Now the army chief convened the corps commanders for an emergency meeting. While the military earlier rejected any talk of a coup against the government the meeting may well end with a decision to remove the government. Kayani also changed the commander of the 111 Infantry Brigade, which has been used in previous coups.
On top of this comes a pending Supreme Court decision about a contempt of court case against the prime minister who does not want to follow a court order to reopen corruption cases against president Zardari and others. The court is threatening to remove him over the issue.
As the editors of Dawn remark:
Any of the three institutions the government, the superior judiciary and the army being on the warpath does not bode well for national stability.
All three are now on the warpath against each other and adding the renewal of drone strikes at such a precarious moment for the Pakistani state is not only highly irresponsible but may well create serious blowback.
It opens the convenient possibility that whatever happens in Pakistan now, coup or not, can be used by either side to plausibly blame, at least for average Pakistanis, the Americans and their drone attacks.