Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 29, 2011
U.S. Closing Down Its Logistics Through Pakistan

After the U.S. November 26 attack on a Pakistani border post that killed 26 Pakistani soldiers the logistic line from Karachi into Afghanistan was shut down by Pakistani authorities.

It was expected that the line would be reopened after a few weeks. But as the U.S. is not forthcoming with the apology Pakistan demands and even partly blames Pakistan for the incident despite the fact that all the miscommunication that led to it happened on the U.S. site, the chances to reopen the line have dwindled.

Consequently the U.S. is now pulling out the equipment and wares currently stuck on the transport route in Pakistan:

“It has been a month since the Nato attack which resulted in the port and border closures with no resolution in sight, the US government intends to have all import unit cargo that is currently staged at different Container Holding Yards (CHYs) moved back to Karachi port or the nearest CHY to the port. Once we receive approval, all unit cargo will be exported out of Pakistan,” wrote Anita Rice, Chief of the OCCA SWA (595th Trans Brigade, NSA Bahrain) in an email to all ‘concerned’ persons.

According to sources, US cargo, stranded in Pakistan, is worth millions of dollars and US authorities have serious concerns over the safety of the cargo as it includes hammer [sic] vehicles, dumpers, anti-aircraft guns, special carriers of anti-aircraft guns, vehicles specially built to jam communications, cranes and sophisticated weapons.

“We will compile information for submission to Pakistan customs for amendment for cargo export,” Rice said in her email, providing US Lieutenant Colonel Jerome Heath’s contact number for further assistance.

It will take several months to get all the stuff stuck in Pakistan back on ships and even longer to reroute it through the Northern Distribution Network into Afghanistan.

It will also cost a lot of money. Flying equipment into Afghanistan costs about $14,000 per (short) ton. A 20″ container coming through the NDN through Russia and Uzbekistan costs about $12,000, double the amount it costs for the same container to be routed through Pakistan.

Additionally there is concern about the ability of the rail network in Uzbekistan, recently hit by a mysterious explosion, to carry the additional load of what so far has come through Pakistan as well as corruption and the U.S. denial of the abysmal human rights record of the Karimov regime.

Aside from that current NDN agreements do not allow for the transport of weapons and ammunition through the NDN and it is, so far, a one way route that can not be used for the ongoing retreat from Afghanistan.

Obama’s decision to not apologizing for the border incident incident, taken out of fear of attacks from the domestic political right, will turn out to be very expensive and will hinder future U.S. operations in Afghanistan for quite some time.

But the political impact of completely closing down the logistic line through Pakistan might even be bigger. It removes another point of common interest the U.S. and Pakistan have had.


If the U.S. is, as it seems now possible, trying to get into direct negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar that exclude Pakistani interest from the future of Afghanistan the war there is unlikely to end anytime soon.

Comments

If the U.S. is, as it seems now possible, trying to get into direct negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar

Seems evrything moves via Qatar these days, wonder what it’s Wahhabi big brother Saudi thinks about this?

Posted by: hans | Dec 29 2011 13:33 utc | 1

hans,
Big bro KSA dont like it at all! But they cannot do anything about it so just put up with it and play along as a rival, in Egypt, Libya, vis-a-vis Iran etc.

Posted by: Irshad | Dec 29 2011 13:50 utc | 2

“Obama’s decision to not apologizing for the border incident incident, taken out of fear of attacks from the domestic political right, will turn out to be very expensive…”
I doubt it, its not a problem when you have unlimited tax payer money to do with as you please.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Dec 29 2011 13:54 utc | 3

Talking directly to the terrorists? What a hypocrisy!

Posted by: trevrepeht | Dec 29 2011 14:47 utc | 4

I would suggest that it’s a bit premature to conclude that the US has decided to give up on the Pakistan route. This may be a ploy to strengthen their hand in the coming negotiations on using this route (which the Pakistanis have indicated they intend to have).

Posted by: FB Ali | Dec 29 2011 15:44 utc | 5

Oh goody, the U.S. now has a vital war supply line controlled by Russia, not exactly a close ally, with the U.S. and Russia having major differences on ballistic missiles, Georgia, human rights, bogus elections, etc. In Afghanistan, of all places, which was once a U.S. trap for USSR! You can’t make this stuff up.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 29 2011 16:38 utc | 6

Looks like the US is really hitting a string of bad luck in Central Asia. Just as they announce this Northern Route being ramped up come this news:

Where is war most likely to break out in 2012? Between Georgia and Russia? Armenia and Azerbaijan? Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (or Tajikistan and itself)? News is thin this week between (non-Orthodox) Christmas and New Year’s, so analysts and pundits are coming out with their predictions for 2012, and a lot of them touch on the possibility for conflict in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Uzbek authorities has drawn up military hardware, mostly tanks, to the Tajik border on the Istaravshan direction.” “Local residents are seriously concerned over the situation, especially against the backcloth of current relations with Uzbekistan,”

Source: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64765
The whole NATO Northern Distribution Network sits on some very unstable ‘stan states. Tajikistan is ruled by Secular former soviets despite the fact that 95% of the country is Muslim and militancy has been exploding in the rural areas, with national unemployment at 60% and an 850 mile long border with Afghanistan, many young men can get paid to fight in Afghanistan and return home with military training and a jihadi outlook.
Uzbekistan faces a similar situation with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan one of largest groups of the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan after the Haqqani network. Uzbekistans President (since 1990) Islam Karimov, is notorious for imprisoning Islamists and boiling them alive in cauldrons. To make matters worse both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are on the verge of war with each other over water rights and sectarian issues with Foreign Policy Magazine and EurAsia.net both listing a war with Uzbek-Tajikistan as a likely flashpoint for the coming year.
In Kyrgyzstan the new President is close to Russia and has listed the US airbase there as one of the biggest threats calling it “a danger to the country.”
All in all for the Northern Distribution Network to operate it requires all 3 of these states (as well as Russia) to agree to move NATO supplies through its territory. Two face Islamic insurgencies, two are on the verge of war with each other and another one is solidly Anti-American.
If the NDN was shut down either by Russia or by war in the Stans the US would only have one more country bordering Afghanistan left to turn to. Iran.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Dec 29 2011 17:16 utc | 7

Turn to Iran for logistical support? Never happen. Ooooops —
news report, Dec 27, 2011:
Iran plans to export one million tons of oil products annually to Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported, citing an agreement between the two countries. The products include gas oil, jet fuel and gasoline, the official news agency said, citing the accord signed yesterday by the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Co. and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Commerce. //
So much for ‘crippling sanctions,’ and guess which country’s taxpayers will pay Iran for the fuel.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 29 2011 17:55 utc | 8

@FB Ali This may be a ploy to strengthen their hand in the coming negotiations on using this route
I had that thought too.
But it will be very difficult, and over time become even more so, for the Pakistani military to agree to re-opening the line without a U.S. apology as well as for Obama issuing one. It is now about loosing face.
Also the Pakistani government said that the parliament will have to vote on reopening the line. In light of the unpopularity to do so plus the role of Imran Khan in the next election, the PPP as well as the PML-N will have difficulties to come up with a “yes” majority.
It may well be a ploy but we have no evidence at all for that and I suspect that even if it is one it will be unsuccessful.

Posted by: b | Dec 29 2011 18:43 utc | 9

The US appears to have made a strategic decision to ally with India and hang Pakistan out to dry. India has large investments in Afghanistan, as well as aid, and has built a road from Afghanistan to the Gulf of Oman. The Zaranj – Delaram road, built by India’s Border Roads Organization, is part of a larger Indo-Iranian project that will connect Kandahar and Herat to Iran’s Chahbahar Port on the Persian Gulf, a new Indian-financed port in Iran.
The financing and engineering assistance from India is not limited to the port. India, wishing to bypass Pakistan, besides the Zaranj – Delaram road leading from the port into Afghanistan there is a planned railroad to Afghanistan. Iranian officials state that they wish to have Bandar Abbas remain as the port for Russian and European trade and have Chabahar become the port for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.
This would be the “Silk Road” that the U.S. is promoting. It wouldn’t involve Pakistan, but how to involve Iran? If the U.S. only had some troops in Southeast Iran to keep things ‘stabilized.’ Maybe there’s a way. Perhaps a new crisis could be invented?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 29 2011 21:57 utc | 10

With logistics and drones out of Pakistan, has the word AfPak been obsoleted?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 30 2011 1:06 utc | 11

Isn’t that why US is supporting Baloch separatists in Iran?

Posted by: nikon | Dec 30 2011 1:14 utc | 12

Balochistan — yes — it has become the center of the AFPak universe and I expect big things to happen there. It is the keystone of the U.S. New Silk Road strategy. According to the recent senate (Kerry) report we have a new acronym — NSR, which essentially is the NDN.
The “safe havens” justification for AfPak is tired, overused and trite. On to NSR! There’s money to be made, so send your sons and daughters for IED-fodder.
Cheez, the more I read artherdecco the more I sound like him.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 30 2011 6:24 utc | 13

Thats heard bad US is going to close logistics from Pakistam. Such kind of matter are resolvable. Try to find out its solution rather than closing the things. It not a matter of countries its matter of people who want to be connected with their relatives and friends who lived in both countries.

Posted by: next day delivery | Dec 30 2011 11:47 utc | 14