It is amazing how ridiculous the new Israel induced "western" sanctions on Iran are evolving now:
The United States, its European allies and key Arab states are intensifying talks on how to maintain stability in the global energy markets in case of a formal embargo on Iran’s oil exports and its central bank, The Wall Street Journal reported late Sunday.
…
US and European officials have indicated they are seeking assurances from major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, to increase exports to the European Union and Asian nations if tighter sanctions on Tehran’s energy exports and central bank are enforced in the coming months, the Journal report said.
There is unlikely to be enough oil available to replace Iranian output. The Saudi's November production was an all time record 10 million barrels per day. It is doubtful that they and others can produce more than they currently do.
But it is also unlikely that Iran will not be able to find customers to buy its oil. Despite sanctions against Iran the total produced amount of oil will therefore stay the same, but the customers will change and that can well lead to a widening of the conflict.
Iran will of course continue to sell oil to China, India and whoever else will ignore under the U.S. diktat to not buy Iranian oil. Those buyers will have a good negotiation position and will get their oil cheaper. It will also make them more dependent on Iran which may well mean that they will be more hostile to any attempt to further squeeze Iran at the UN or elsewhere.
Those "western" countries that will move away from Iranian oil will have to pay higher prices as the possible sources for their purchase will be reduced. This will put more pressure on their economies none of which are in good shape. With less flexibility will also come a higher risk should some event, like an explosion at Saudi facilities, reduce the production available to them.
In total the markets will be more nervous and the risk premium included in oil prices will go up. Iran and the other Persian Gulf countries will make more money. Everyone else will have to pay more for oil with the price increase for the "west" likely much higher than for the "east". This while the "west" is in economic trouble and the "east" is still expanding.
It will be the most stupid self inflicted wound world policy has seen for a while. All this because a tiny racist west-Asian country that wants to stay at the top in its wider area demands, through its U.S. lobby, that a twelve times bigger country a thousand miles away from it must be hindered in its further economic and technological development.
