Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 23, 2011
Open Thread – Dec 23

Your news and views …

Comments

I have been working as an atmospheric scientist’s associate for the last 21 years. The methane factor has been on my radar for most of that time but only cursorily. It has been a known unknown factor with potentially huge significance to the global climate change scenario but without solid science and data to substantiate any predictions. This appears to be changing and the picture is bleak.
There is a group of scientists that have been studying methane for some time and have recently formed the “Arctic Methane Emergency Group
On the left side of this linked page is a menu and I suggest you explore it. It is quite comprehensive and will bring you up to speed on the methane situation as it is presently understood.
The group’s chairman recently penned and published the following (in part) “Letter to World Leaders”.

December 2011
Arctic Methane Emergency Group
Emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane is today a matter of our survival

The substance of our concerns – and the basis for these media reports – is outlined in the attached 16-page document entitled Arctic Methane Alert. To summarise:
• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and increased warming of the Arctic seas threaten methane hydrate instability and a massive catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, as noted in IPCC AR4.
• Research published by N. Shakhova* shows that methane is already venting into the atmosphere from seabed methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic shelf, or ESAS (the world’s largest continental shelf), which, if allowed to escalate, would likely lead to abrupt and catastrophic global warming.
• The latest research expedition to the region (September/October 2011), according to Professor I. Semiletov, witnessed methane plumes on a “fantastic scale,” “some one kilometer in diameter,” “far greater” than previous observations, which were officially reported in 2010 to equal methane emissions from all the other oceans put together.
• The loss of Arctic summer sea ice and subsequent increased Arctic surface warming will inevitably increase the rate of methane emissions already being released from Arctic wetlands and thawing permafrost.
• The latest available data indicates there is a 5-10% possibility of the Arctic being ice free in September by 2013, more likely 2015, and with 95% confidence by 2018. This, according to the recognised world authorities on Arctic sea ice, Prof. Wadhams and Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski, is the point of no return for summer sea ice. Once past this point, it could prove impossible to reverse the retreat by any kind of intervention. The data indicate the Arctic could be ice free for six months of the year by 2020 (PIOMAS 2011).
It is on the basis of this latest and best information that we are calling for urgent and immediate action to arrest the escalating decline of Arctic sea ice.

The Arctic sea ice and methane emissions emergency situation must go straight to the top of the global climate change agenda. According to the WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION, Geneva, 29 November 2011

Posted by: juannie | Dec 23 2011 12:35 utc | 1

Its amazing to me that there are so many experts on global warming in our non-scientist population. Why, by golly, just ask any astute Fox News fan, and they will fill us poor uninformed lay folks like myself in on the facts about why global warming is just a liberal plot, designed to justify massive governmental intrusion into our daily lives, and to turn little boys into homosexual Islamic radicals.
I have conducted my own careful experimentation, and have arrived at an informed opinion; Taking a lengthy toke on a chunk of fine Lebanese hashish, I exhaled into a vintage Coca Cola bottle, then placed my thumb over the bottle’s opening. Upon careful examination, I noted that the bottle did indeed fill up with smoke. I repeated the process, using different and various gaseous components. Its of particular note that although somewhat difficult to accomplish, if you fart in the bottle, upon completion of the experiment, you can in fact detect an odor coming out of the bottle.
I have concluded that if you release gaseous substances into a bubble, and they cannot escape, then, in fact, the bubble fills up with gaseous substances.
As soon as I get into town, I intend to buy a thermometer, (to place within the Coke bottle), an enema bag, and a funnel. I have in mind an experiment that more closely emulates mankind’s contributions to Earth’s environment. I’ll let you know how my experiment goes.

Posted by: PissedOffAmerican | Dec 23 2011 14:29 utc | 2

Global warming is just a liberal plot, just like the Muppets are.
Season’s Greetings from Fox…an annual tradition of using snowstorms and cold temperatures to mock global warming:
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201112210005
And the Muppets do Marx:
Bolling Doubles Down On Attack On The Muppets: “How Much More Demonizing Can You Be To Capitalism? It’s Terrible”
http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201112050025
Fox Business’ Follow The Money Unmasks The Muppets’ Liberal Agenda: “Brainwashing” Your Kids!
http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/201112020036
Looking forward to hearing how your experiment goes, POA. Reminds me of past experimentations (smoke through a bottle), different variation and not as elaborate as yours, yet with pleasing results.
And thanks to juannie for your work as an atmospheric scientist’s associate, and the post and links, although it will not reach those “astute Fox News fans.”

Posted by: DakotabornKansan | Dec 23 2011 15:31 utc | 3

As methane bubbles up from the ocean floor, more smoke and mirrors, the disastrous “Durban package” accelerates onset of climate catastrophe
From Friends of the Earth International, “The UN climate talks in Durban were a failure and take the world a significant step back by further undermining an already flawed, inadequate multilateral system that is supposed to address the climate crisis.”
http://www.foei.org/en/media/archive/2011/climate-disastrous-durban-package-accelerates-onset-of-climate-catastrophe

Posted by: DakotabornKansan | Dec 23 2011 16:15 utc | 4

Very worrying concerning the Methane release. Methane is 30 times more potent than Carbon Dioxide in trapping heat and have read before that a big concern is the huge Siberian territory melting. The chances of it causing amplifying feedback or “runaway Climate Change” seems to be both huge and disasterous.
A Journalist I read fairly regularly, Gwynne Dyer, had a good article on Durban and the effects of a 2 degree rise.

“Three years ago, while I was interviewing the director of a think tank in New Delhi, she suddenly dropped a bomb into the conversation. Her institute had been asked by the World Bank to figure out how much food production India would lose when the average global temperature was two degrees Celsius higher, she said—and the answer was 25 percent.
This study, like similar ones that the bank commissioned in other major countries, has never been published, presumably because the governments of those countries put huge pressure on the bank to keep the numbers secret. But the Indian government undoubtedly knows the truth.
A 25 percent loss of food production would be an almost measureless calamity for India. It now produces just enough food to feed its 1.1 billion people. If the population rises by the forecast quarter-billion in the next 20 years, and meanwhile its food production falls by 25 percent due to global warming, half a billion Indians will starve.”

Source: http://www.straight.com/article-562791/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-durban-climatechange-conference-was-almost-total-failure

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Dec 23 2011 17:22 utc | 5

Juanie, You do know that the Greenland was Green right? I believe this was in the last 1000 years. I’m not dismissive of “climate change,” but I am an honest observer. We don’t know squat, nor can we establish much in the way of controls, there is no way to repeat experiments on climate change nor do we have a comprehensive, or frankly a cursory understanding of all the variables and their relative effects. So, I find the term “science” funny. I look for the scientific method in science, but that’s just me.
Anyway, I want to discuss economics briefly. If someone can rebut my point, please do, I’m seeking the truth, even if it means I have egg on my face–though I can’t resist being provocative. So, I believe that far higher top marginal tax rates would stimulate the economy. As a self employed person, I know that if I were facing big taxes on profits, if I were put-off or offended by the taxes, I would buy a new truck, buy new equipment, advertise more, give my workers raises or bonuses, hire, expand, buy an office, max my retirement, seek deductible investments. All those stimulate the economy, grow GDP, and all are untaxed benefits to me. High top marginal tax rates should discourage high executive salaries, and force firms to re-invest in themselves.
Studies have shown that top effective tax rates have stayed historically fairly constant, at around 20%, from Ike to Reagan. So, we know the money didn’t go to the gov’t, we must ask, “where did it go?” Clearly, it fled into deductible avenues. The most obvious deductible avenues are legit expenses of business, and expanding, investing in that business. The stubbornness of the effective tax rate destroys the argument/complaint that we can’t bleed our firms with taxes. The 94% tax rate of Ike goes a long way toward satisfying the reduce-to-the-absurd challenge, and, those were pretty flush times economically.
But, economics, like climate change can’t be repeated, studied in a vacuum, all the variables can’t be controlled for, aren’t and can’t be known. It’s not science, but I find it all interesting. So, anyone want to argue the point, that high taxes encourage GDP expansion and investment? Or, the corollary that low taxes encourages high executive pay, liquidation of corporate assets, pensions and investment?

Posted by: scottindallas | Dec 23 2011 17:31 utc | 6

Looks like the profit motive has finally got around to strangling the world. If there was money to be made in cleaning up the mess it would surely proceed more quickly.

Posted by: ruralito | Dec 23 2011 17:34 utc | 7

scottindallas:
Greenland got it’s name because nobody would move to New Iceland. It’s always been a marginal place to live–even their cows were dwarfed by the environment there. (Jared Diamond’s Collapse is a great book on this.)
While the US was much more prosperous when the top tier tax rates were higher, resource limits weren’t much of a problem back then. The US even had silver coins! The following graph of retail gasoline deliveries shows what I mean.
The US refined more gasoline in 1983!

Posted by: no6ody | Dec 23 2011 18:43 utc | 8

juannie, excellent link. One quick note: the left side menu is scroll bar, and you have to scroll down to the methane links. I like the NASA one, especially the pic of the methane hydrate burning while somebody is holding it.

Posted by: no6ody | Dec 23 2011 18:53 utc | 9

Crock of the week, “I’m not dismissive of “climate change,” but I am an honest observer.”
Scotty looks for the scientific method in science and finds none in climate science.
The debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.
The science that formed the groundwork for the theory of climate change has been well established for over 50 years. Climate science is based on some of the most fundamental and agreed-upon scientific truths in history.
The take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you’re likely to believe in global warming and humankind’s contribution to it.
Which obviously excludes Scotty.

Posted by: DakotabornKansan | Dec 23 2011 19:29 utc | 10

@b, A housekeeping request and suggestion… full RSS feeds. Getting back into following MoA after the break, but often from low bandwidtth connection, and so via RSS… Could we have a full feed option? This would also greatly unload your server. PD

Posted by: PeeDee | Dec 23 2011 19:47 utc | 11

Maybe Ron Paul is bigoted against blacks, as some are now claiming he is, but at least he’s not bigoted against Muslims like all of the other Republican presidential candidates are, including Barack Obama. There is really no other way to explain why all of them continue to support our long and brutal wars of aggression against the Muslim world, most of which are aimed at killing innocent Muslims.
Some of this can be explained by all of these presidential candidates being in the back pockets of the oil industry, the weapons industry, and last but not least, the Israel lobby. But most of this can be explained by their blatant bigotry against Muslims, especially Muslims that share the same region of the world with Israel.
Believe me, I’m no fan of Ron Paul for a number of reasons, a number which is too numerous to count, but I think he deserves an enormous amount of credit for having the guts to go up against our corrupt imperialist warmongers, who are second only to our corrupt imperialist banksters, when it comes destroying our country and our economy from the inside out.

Posted by: Cynthia | Dec 23 2011 20:04 utc | 12

b
just to say that before i or the year should fall, i want to thank you for being here
it has both a special & profound signification, for me
i know i am not alone

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 23 2011 20:07 utc | 13

fun in German – eoterism – Feng Shui – in German universities
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/esoterik-an-deutschen-hochschulen-lasst-die-nymphen-tanzen-1.1240704
some journalists do work
actually it is a scandal …

Posted by: somebody | Dec 23 2011 20:20 utc | 14

I second your sentiment re b r’giap, and no, you are not alone…
and I know I am not alone.
And a warm Season’s greetings to all you who make this watering hole so refreshing!!!

Posted by: juannie | Dec 23 2011 22:31 utc | 15

I also want to pass along my Season’s Greetings to everyone who makes MOA such a great place.
We are not alone. Happy trails to everyone here. Also best wishes for Peace, Love, and Solidarity to increase in the New Year.

Posted by: Copeland | Dec 23 2011 23:24 utc | 16

Merry Christmas, everyone @ MOA! ..Because it IS Christmas,isn’t it?

Posted by: arthurdecco | Dec 24 2011 4:03 utc | 17

DakotabornKansan Re:10
You can be an insufferable boor, can’t you?
Prove you’re not a boor by providing FACTS to back up your hyperbole.
…or forever hold your tongue.

Posted by: arthurdecco | Dec 24 2011 4:22 utc | 18

Yes, everyone have a wonderful and safe holiday.
With regards to the climate change, no matter where your opinions fall on the issue, to assume 7 billion humans, and their activities, have no impact on the planet, is the height of naivete. If I were a wealthy man with a vested interest in the status quo, I could hire a number of folks to convince some of the people, that water, is in fact, not wet.

Posted by: ben | Dec 24 2011 5:40 utc | 19

hey, merry holidays all

Posted by: annie | Dec 24 2011 16:23 utc | 20

Dakota, you can dismiss my sensitivity to the climate issue, but I am an organic gardener by trade. I am a natural skeptic and I certainly do understand science. Climate science, like medicine and social sciences, isn’t science. There is great doubt about the principle drivers of climate change, those who don’t doubt it, are nothing but the Amen corner. Again, I have chosen, by trade to improve the environment, and not for cynical reasons.
You are mistaken about Greenland. For 300 of the last 2000 years, Greenland shows fossil evidence of lush growth and cover. The hottest/driest days of record for TX precede our being here. The hottest days in your part of the Great Plains and Northwards dates back to the 30’s. There is much we don’t know. There is much you evidently don’t know about science. We wont be able to “see” climate change in the evidence. Likely, it will be something that builds inertia before the evidence is shown, or, put another way, once we can measure the effects, it will be far too late. But, you ignore the outlying evidence I’ve indicated. You ignore that we don’t really know much about the Solar Cycle, the Earth’s own releases, how much heat is lost to the atmosphere. Hell, we don’t know what cloud cover means–it can indicate cooling or the greenhouse effect. There is so much we don’t understand, so much that we cant quantify, so much that we understand so poorly. You say we’ve been studying this for 50 years, but we haven’t had the same conclusions since then. How do you explain the Earth’s failure to warm over the last 5 years? Science is slow to suggest they know, your impetuous judgment is not grounded in science.

Posted by: scottindallas | Dec 24 2011 17:21 utc | 21

sorry trying to post if they arrive in too vast a number edit them b

Posted by: remembererringgiap | Dec 24 2011 17:44 utc | 22

ALL RIGHT!!!! At last, we have someone thats gotta know WTF he’s talkin’ about!
To set us all on the path to enlightenment, an “organic gardener” has weighed in, and given us the unvarnished facts about the unknown unknowns surrounding global warming. Just imagine the hefty scientific background that must be amassed to finally be able to declare yourself an “organic gardener by trade”!!!
Well, we’re lucky to have ‘im, thats for damned sure!
As for me, I have completed my latest experiment, and have had my theory proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. The Coke bottle, did, in fact, fill up with shit when I filled it up with shit, exactly as I expected it would. And the thermometer indicated a rise of twenty degrees. And that was while I could still read it! No telling how high it went after it disappeared from sight. I also added a component unmentioned in the scientific essay that I offered in comment #2. Prior to filling the bottle with shit, I deposited a live Blue-Bellied Lizard within. Upon careful observation, I noted that filling the bottle with shit did in fact kill the lizard.
I think the conclusions that can be reached by my careful and scientific experimentation are clearly evident, even though I lack a degree in the esteemed field of Proffessional Organic Gardening.

Posted by: PissedOffAmerican | Dec 24 2011 23:11 utc | 23

Oh, and by the way, I’m a Finish Carpenter by trade.
That should alleviate any doubts some of you may be harboring about my qualifications to comment knowlewdgably about environmental issues.

Posted by: PissedOffAmerican | Dec 24 2011 23:29 utc | 24

once we can measure the effects, it will be far too late.
i agree scott

Posted by: annie | Dec 25 2011 5:02 utc | 25

Greenland was call Greenland to entice the chumps, ala Athens, Georgia and Rome, NY. It’s climate change, not global warming that’s the issue.

Posted by: Biklett | Dec 25 2011 5:23 utc | 26

so the chinese are calling amerikkan ambassador gary locke *wolf in sheep’s skin*
[having lots of problem posting in wapo these days]
but locke is just a hapless patsy
the anglos/gringos use lots of patsies to take the rap these days., while they chortle in the shadow siping champagn, so we’ve faces like obama, rice, yoo, locke etc ,
who’s the real wolf in sheep’s skin
forchrissake, do gringos really believe in their own shit ?

Posted by: denk | Dec 25 2011 6:19 utc | 27

b, there is definitively a problem with the comment system. I just (20 minutes ago) posted a comment (one line of text, with a link), filled in the captcha correctly, saw very briefly the comment posted message (with link to post another one) and then the comment vanished.
the text of that comment was: This Doonesbury strip summarises the situation quite well. Still no roses.
with a link to todays Doonesbury strip (20111225)

Posted by: Philippe | Dec 25 2011 7:28 utc | 28

me too

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 25 2011 21:01 utc | 29

Just my two cents: It is a matter of fact that species from the Mediterranean Sea area have moved to the north, crossed the Alps and settled in southern Germany. They wouldn’t have done so if there hadn’t been any change. So, warming in this area also seems to be a matter of fact because this wouldn’t have happened over the last ten years or so.
Secondly, Earth is no stable, homogeneous system but a very heterogeneous one. There might be spots that are warmer than expected, and there might be times of lower temperatures in certain areas. However, insurance companies are paying more and more for damage done by extreme weather conditions. These seem to occur more often than in the last fifty years.
I am not sure if man-made climate change is a topic but there can be no denying the fact that something is happening.

Posted by: k_w | Dec 25 2011 21:05 utc | 30

Another step towards a multi-polar currency world: China and Japan plan direct currency exchange agreement.

Posted by: Philippe | Dec 26 2011 9:18 utc | 31

Let’s take a moment during this somber season to remember our overlords and appreciate them as they feel they deserve.

Posted by: Monolycus | Dec 26 2011 14:27 utc | 32

How about Rolling Stone requiring you to log in with Facebook to comment to that article linked at in @32. Screw you, Rolling Stone. You need to be thrown out with the rest of the trash if and when the time comes, you CIA scum.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Dec 26 2011 20:07 utc | 33

kw, regarding the payouts of insurance companies, these payouts will always increase, so long as we have inflation, increasing development in hazardous areas among other factors. We have seen a warming trend over the last 30 years. I don’t know, nor does anyone else what part of that is attributable to man, it doesn’t matter. We should push ourselves to be more efficient, conserve more and plan and prepare for extreme weather and other foreseeable factors. Though, we must focus on what is economically most rational first. The first three quarters of efficiency can likely be achieved fairly easily, where the last bits are of decreasing returns. We need a sound and sober dialog as to where and how we should proceed. But, whether warranted or not, alarmism is not constructive. It invites us to green-washing and wasteful efforts. Take ethanol and windmills. Ethanol is more polluting, steals food for fuel, and is not energy efficient; ethanol INCREASES our fuel consumption. Windmills operate less than 12% of the time. For the amount of money we’ve invested in windmills in Texas, we could have replaced our coal plants with new Natural Gas. But, we went “green,” are facing black/brownouts this Summer and still need to old coal plants for fuel. HOV lanes are an inefficient use of road space, exacerbating traffic, mileage, pollution for the 98% in the regular lanes while a few moms with babies on board, and Lexus speed along.
I included that I am an organic gardener by trade not to offer some ad hominem support for my argument, but to provide background that I am not careless about caring for our planet. I’m an avid outdoorsman, and would like to see wild area protected and the rest used responsibly, leaving this place better than we found it.

Posted by: scottindallas | Dec 26 2011 21:18 utc | 34

Glad to see you’re still here scott, especially after all the flack you received although some of it well deserved in my mind.
I happen to be an organic farmer/gardener myself (in my retirement) and share your desire to see our planet treated in a responsible manner to leave something better for our progeny.
To start off, I agree with you on several points. Examples, “We cannot establish much in the way of controls”. “Ethanol is more polluting.” “We should push to be more efficient [with energy]” and in my interpretation of your comments, there is too much bullshit green-washing by wanna’ feel good liberals. However as a twenty year veteran of being on the front line of climate research and “science” I have a lot to disagree with you on.
I am not going to offer you a plethora of links and graphs to make my points but am only going to state them and leave it up to you to be an honest and open explorer of my claims.
First, I find it very sophomoric for you to state that “climate science… isn’t science” and that “we don’t know squat”. There are many (globally thousands) highly trained and highly intelligent individuals participating in the field of climate and weather research. I personally have met and got to know a few and I was employed by one of them for over twenty-one years. (Incidentally one of the very few active scientists that did not work for any government agency, educational establishment or private corporate entity. In essence, a totally independent research scientist who’s contributions were always significant enough to receive funding from agencies exploring the field.) I would ask you to be more prudent and judicious in making such claims especially on this blog. They are really uninformed opinions.
That Greenland was green, actually during what is known as the Medieval Warm Period or Medieval Climate Optimum (approx. 950 to 1100 ce. followed by the Little Ice Age approx. 1550 to 1850 ce.) is not in any way an argument to dispute the claim that the planet is in a warming trend that exceeds anything for the past several million years. Costal Greenland is green today as it was when the Scandinavians first settled there and attempted to practice an agricultural existence for a short while before the warming period ended. Anything beyond the costal areas is and has been for the last several million years under up to over two miles of solid ice. Today, if you look into it you will discover that the ice is melting at an unprecedented rate. And incidentally some of the “non-scientific” knowledge of past climates comes from ice cores recovered from deep in the Greenland ice.
That we “don’t know squat” is belied by the fact that we know enough about the underlying physics of and behavior of the global climate and weather systems that large and complex computer simulations are grinding out our global weather forecasts on a daily basis with a high degree of and constantly improving accuracy. The accuracy is measured on a quantitative basis and available is you choose to look for it.
We don’t know everything about weather and climate. They are highly nonlinear and complex dynamical systems and as such defy extreme accuracy in prediction or understanding. But enough is known about their general behavior and underlying physical properties that we can get pretty damn close, especially on a short term (hours/days) basis. Right now 24 to 48 hour forecasts are for all intents and purposes right on most of the time. They are accurate enough that potential recipients of hurricane devastation can be forewarned up to a week in advance with remarkable confidence. Not always. We don’t understand quite enough to have predicted the local catastrophic flooding that Vermont was subjected to by Irene even though we knew she would hit us hard. We’re still in the process of recovery. But we are getting better and improvements are happening yearly.
The most difficult problem that the layman has in understanding anthropogenic climate effects is the disinformation that is being constantly churned out by “experts” that almost with our exception have no or very little actual climatic research backgrounds and are funded by corporate sponsored “think tanks” that are the handmaidens of vested interests in the status quo, most especially the fossil energy industries. The tobacco lobby that so successfully thwarted a plethora of evidence condemning tobacco as a health hazzard for so many years developed the “scientific” PR practices that have so successfully been used again to deny the consensus of literally thousands of climate researchers from all over the globe, of all persuasions of race, nationality and ideologies. The few so called experts who deny the evidence accumulated by up to 99 % of the working and respected and peer reviewed researchers are and have been exposed as complete shams. My one link in this screed links to a book that was written by a skeptical but honest PR executive who set out to discover the truth and was proven wrong in his skepticism, and then wrote a book about his findings. The link is to his blog and you will find his book “Climate Cover-Up” (by James Hansen).
Scott, if you get your information or form your opinions from the mainstream media, you are getting lied to and scammed. Look beyond any of these sources and delve into the works of integrity of the true working “scientists” in the field. I’ll leave it up to you to do the research to find them if indeed you are truly an “honest observer”.
And above all, keep up the good work in the organic fields. Diversity and real food are becoming more and more important to our survival especially after the methane feedbacks kick in and exacerbate an already untenable climate situation.

Posted by: juannie | Dec 27 2011 2:34 utc | 35

“Look beyond any of these sources and delve into the works of integrity of the true working “scientists” in the field”
Yes, and personal experimentation is invaluable to arriving at concrete and undeniable conclusions. Why, just today I purchased a slightly used Ken doll, and a propane torch, and plan to difinitively answer the age old question about whether or not excessive tanning is bad for your health.

Posted by: PissedOffAmerican | Dec 27 2011 3:15 utc | 36

Newt Gringich, was a load of shit!

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Dec 27 2011 14:45 utc | 37

grinch is trying to put us to sleep cloned poster..

Posted by: annie | Dec 27 2011 15:41 utc | 38

Global warming (I don’t like ‘climate change’) and many of its effects are factual. One can argue about the causes, feedback loops, interactions, etc.
All that set aside, it is a good example of lobbying, meddling, accusations, counter-claims, disparagement, etc. affecting public opinion strongly. Polls show that in the past few years, belief in and concern about global warming have waned. (Perhaps in part be because concern about other rubrics, like the economy, have amplified.)
The whole story represents a slipping away from Science, and tossing ‘facts’ in to the ‘opinion’ bin, and thus the ‘fashionable meme’ category. One year, it leads to alarm and subsidies for wind farms and ethanol, another year it is a negligible blip, past its sell date, not relevant or ‘real’ and fracking is essential for economic growth.
Quite different, for ex., from refusing a new cosmology (a historical example that is often brought up), or denying the Theory of Evolution, because the Earth simply continues its now well known path, and antibiotics continue to be produced, mutations go on occurring (etc.), in short, the denial does not much affect what really goes on in the world, except for the fact that nay-sayers may keep or acquire adherents who contribute allegiance, adulation, cash…
Global warming is directly linked to Earth-human interaction, it is a different kettle of fish. No doubt that explains the vicious, and effective, back-lash against the Science.

Posted by: Noirette | Dec 27 2011 16:24 utc | 39

Global warming (I don’t like ‘climate change’) and many of its effects are factual. One can argue about the causes, feedback loops, interactions, etc.
All that set aside, it is a good example of lobbying, meddling, accusations, counter claims, disparagement, etc. affecting public opinion strongly. Polls show that in the past few years, belief in and concern about global warming have waned. (Perhaps in part be because concern about other rubrics, like the economy, have amplified.)
The whole story represents a slipping away from Science, and tossing ‘facts’ in to the ‘opinion’ bin, and thus the ‘fashionable meme’ category. One year, it leads to alarm and subsidies for wind farms and ethanol, another year it is a negligible blip, past its sell date, not relevant or ‘real’ and fracking is essential for economic survival or growth.
Quite different, for ex., from refusing a new cosmology (a historical example that is often brought up), or denying the Theory of Evolution, because the Earth simply continues its now well known path, and antibiotics continue to be produced, mutations go on occurring (etc.), in short, the denial does not much affect what really goes on in the world, except for the fact that nay-sayers may keep or acquire adherents who contribute allegiance, adulation, cash…
Global warming is directly linked to Earth-human interaction, it is a different kettle of fish. No doubt that explains the vicious, and effective, back-lash against the Science.

Posted by: Noirette | Dec 27 2011 16:27 utc | 40

Juannie, you stated that we can’t predict with our models the future of the climate. In fact, you overstate the accuracy of the modelling. That alone is proof that we don’t have the “science” behind us yet. I’m not dismissive of the inquiry, but we still can’t predict the changes–namely, nothing explains the fact that the Earth has cooled over the last 5 years. There are many variables that we don’t understand. I’m not saying it’s fruitless, I’m saying we all need to cool our jets. I’d make the same argument to a denier and an activist.
I do have a good understanding of the philosophy of science–a discipline I studied in school. History shows that few sciences have much real evidence till 150 years of inquiry have passed. We’ve been at this for maybe 50. Many of our assumptions are turned on their heads, mitigating factors dismissed for the agenda of whomever reports. In such complex and vast systems, the scientific challenges multiply.
Finally, I don’t get much of my news from the main stream media. I get it from fact-based reporters and others who are at least earnest (this site and others that I think many of us visit qualify on that) On energy, I’d commend Rob’t Bryce to everyone. He’s as good as Glenn Greenwald, Justin Raimondo, and the Cockburns.

Posted by: scottindallas | Dec 28 2011 16:00 utc | 41

Take this link on the history of Somali-Ethiopian conflicts as a homage to b real‘s illuminating contributions to MOA. The content is probably well know to him and other experts, but was enlightening for me.

Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | Dec 29 2011 15:37 utc | 42

nothing explains the fact that the Earth has cooled over the last 5 years.

To set the record straight the last 6 years fell into the category of the warmest ten years on record. The table that follows shows the temperature anomalies for the years 2005 through 2010 (as reported by NOAA):
(I don’t know how the formatting will show up for the chart at the end but it should be readable anyway.)

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for November 2011 was the 12th warmest on record at 13.35°C (55.81°F), which is 0.45°C (0.81°F) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.0°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.07°C (0.13°F).
For 2010, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record, at 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). 1998 is the third warmest year-to-date on record, at 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average.
Anomaly
Year °C °F – Ranking as warmest on record
2005 0.62 1.11 — 1
2006 0.56 1.01 — 6
2007 0.55 0.99 — 7
2008 0.48 0.86 — 10
2009 0.56 1.01 — 5
2010 0.62 1.12 — 1 (tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record.)

If you choose to respond I would like to know the source of your information on this. It doesn’t correspond at all with the above report or anything else I have seen. For the past twenty some years the global temperature has been undergoing an upswing in the face of naturally occurring factors that sould be cooling the global temperatures if it weren’t for yearly increasing concentration of the greenhouse gasses.
When in doubt about the climate debate be sure to check out what Exxon Mobil and the Koch Industries have to offer. How? Check into what the writers for their funded think tanks, like Robert Bryce of the Manhattan Institute and the Institute for Energy Research are saying.
It turns out that almost without exception the climate deniers can be shown to be funded by the energy industries that have the most at stake in keeping the public in the dark about the realities of a warming global climate. A hand full of climate “experts” who have no real credentials in climate science have been overwhelming the message of literally thousands of climate scientists worldwide who do the difficult and complex work of honest day to day climate research. That’s because they have the funding of the vested interests and the “Amen corner” of the corporately owned and controlled MSM.
Alarmism is warranted when it is imperative to sound the alarm. I have that ethical responsibility to my and your progeny.
This blog is mainly focused on international affairs but international tensions are only going to be exacerbated by the pressure of changing global climate with the dislocation of millions of people and the strains of failing infrastructure on all nations.

Posted by: juannie | Dec 29 2011 17:00 utc | 43

b, what happened to the monthly archives? that new box on the front page doesn’t work for me. i love the archives here.

Posted by: annie | Dec 29 2011 21:10 utc | 44

Excellent rebuttals, Juannie.

Posted by: PissedOffAmerican | Dec 30 2011 2:04 utc | 45

Just came in from saying goodnight, and goodby, to three old friends of my wife and mine who won’t be here in their physical form tomorrow at this time. Old friends? Approximately seven months old. Squeeky, Gruntly, and Hogwood. Three heirloom pigs, half Red Waddle and half Black Spotted Glouster.
Neither my wife or I eat pork. We are not vegetarians but have declined from eating pork for our own reasons. Actually, that’s not quite accurate. I have eaten pork occasionally as something like bacon bits on a salad or such. But not as a regular habit. She, we, got them because they root. And we have a lot of fallow land growing a multitude of wild plants that we would like to turn into land for growing our food. We prefer not to use rototillers etc. and have usually only turned small areas of this land into productive crop land by hand spading whatever we thought we could handle for the year.
Tomorrow, Gruntly, Squeekly, and Hogwood will be “harvested”. They will be shot in the head, throats cut to bleed out, halved down their spine and taken away to be gutted and hung and eventually cut into whatever meat cuts their kind is cut into for human consumption.
But they have become our friends. Especially my wife’s. She has cared for and fed them since we got them back in May. She has fed them the most organic and succulent food she could buy or find, the local co-op’s compost (some of which was so good and fresh that the piggies didn’t get them because they ended up on our table), organic goat milk whey, and non saleable vegetables from our local organic vegetable farm. She has petted and in fact actually massaged them on a daily basis and they would fall down at her feet to be so cared for some more. I have found them to be exceptionally personable and friendly and fun to be around. They have run and played and been a most joyous delight to have been around and watch grow up into over 300 pound creatures.
I am very sad. I have many mixed emotions. I have related to all the killing that goes on in the world in the name of whatever rationalization is necessary to be able to perpetrate it. I have thought about my need to eat and accordingly kill to do so. I have thought about the unconscious slaughter and unconscionable conditions of factory farms and large scale confinement operations and how these three beings have had such a splendid existence compared to their kin in such conditions. And I have thought about my own rationalizations for the fact that I will consciously participate in their demise tomorrow. And I have thought about how none of my thoughts will quell my emotions about the deed.
By the time most here have read this it will be a done deed. It will be over and I will be on my way to leaving it all behind me. Just after we got these piggies, I thought and vocalized that I would probably never eat pork again. But tonight I think the greatest honor I could offer these three special beings is to partake in transmuting their flesh into feeding my activity of growth as a conscious being into something of a higher or more evolved consciousness.
I don’t know. I do know the deep emotions I am presently feeling.

Posted by: juannie | Jan 8 2012 0:52 utc | 46

juannie,
As an animal lover and raising many animals, your story saddens me also.
I detest the ways animals are raised/confined in factory farms and it is not even healthy for humans. At least your animals had a good life, if short.
Is it too expensive now to keep them? Is it a problem of needing more room? Are they now too dangerous as they are getting so large? I have never raised pigs so excuse these questions if they seem naive. Not to sound like detective Columbo, but just one more question. Why do you object to using machinery to till the soil?

Posted by: Rick Happ | Jan 8 2012 1:51 utc | 47

Microsoft Patents ‘Avoid Ghetto’ Feature For GPS Devices
If the main guts of the article doesn’t bother you, this additional feature may:

One section of the patent mentioned that advertisers can use the technology to navigate a user through a newly set up ad campaign.


I am thinking of the first widespread “text based” adventure game. For old time computer geeks, the phrase “twisty little maze” should come to mind.

Posted by: Rick Happ | Jan 8 2012 2:07 utc | 48

To the initiated, John Robb, publishes a website called “Global Guerrillas”.
In a not totally dissimilar manner that b has pointed to Leverett’s site “Race to Iran”, I present for your late night intellectual pleasure a Global Guerillas trilogy of posts. However, with this referral, I offer no platitudes for this man nor any pleas to donate to his website. I make no final judgment here on his soul, but at first glance, the words of r’giap describing Slothrop’s posts comes to mind “the people are always missing”. My plea is simply for Whiskey Bar readers to delve into at least these three of his posts which, when considered together, opens a window to observe a possible future nightmare.
Modern Darknets
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2011/12/the-proliferation-of-darknets.html
The Future of Drone Warfare
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2011/12/drone-bonjwas.html
The Digital Roll-Out of Resilient Communities
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2011/12/why-a-focus-on-digital-change.html
As I cautioned that Leverett was plugged, Robb appears to be plugged directly into multiple 14.4KV high power circuits. While Robb may not appear to be working as hard to prevent any U.S. conflict with Iran or any other foreign or domestic entity, he definitely has ideas on what future conflicts (and peace) will look like.
Please don’t assume I’ve been drinking Kool-aid from the Darkside. It’s only imported Whiskey that I drink.

Posted by: Rick Happ | Jan 8 2012 6:10 utc | 49

I post here a response to a post by DakotabornKansan on another thread

“Don Bacon’s cogent arguments in favor can be read in the comments section”

those comments are disappointing; Rumsfeld was an arrogant and criminal failure; also from a purely strategical point of view, the invasion seemed successful at first, and Rumsfeld was there everyday on the MSM glowing in satisfaction and taking all the credit; then a sandstorm halted the advance towards Baghdad for about a week, and a better organized Iraqi military could have destroyed those overextended, blinded and stranded divisions; for a brief moment (that everyone seems to have forgotten), that kind of invasion didn’t seem a good idea anymore, and unexpectedly that irresponsible coward stated that it wasn’t his plan, it was the generals’ plan; then the advance resumed, Iraq was happily destroyed, and that gross strategic mistake was forgotten;
and there’s still someone who misses that creepy creature …

Posted by: claudio | Jan 8 2012 11:55 utc | 50

It’s done. Squeeky, Gruntly and Hogwood now only coexist as souls departed from earthly existence and as edible flesh for human consumption. Separated but not; or so all the sages and perennial philosophies say.
Me? I don’t feel good but what is that in comparison to what these three magnificent beings experienced as their lives were so violently torn from them. Of course we were reassured that they didn’t suffer and experienced nothing as they squealed and thrashed after the first bullet didn’t just “drop” them as we were told would happen. I don’t feel good but I am trying to just experience what I am feeling and not be attached. Always wonderful advice from the masters of spiritual teachings. Arragh! Arragh! Arragh! It doesn’t help. All these gentle and so enlightened soundings words. Arragh! Arragh!
I hung around. So did my wife until after the last, Gruntly, thrashed and retreated into her hut to finally rest silently and motionless. I stayed on to “help” where needed. My good friend Alden came over with his tractor to be able to lift them as they bled out and were gutted and skinned; a life time Vermont farmer who has experienced such since he can remember but with a gruff outward demeanor and a sensitive heart that bleeds silently as he participates in the necessary process. I followed him home in his tractor with my flashers going to warn others on the short highway trip and then we drank a couple beers and talked about the weather as it used to be when we were both young and winters were for real for the whole winter. Plus 31 degrees today which made the cleaning process quite comfortable for the “harvesters”. They did their job, quickly, efficiently and well. I am appreciative. One is an old time friend. I am grateful and appreciative.
Life goes on. I hope my night tonight is less stressful than last night. But then again maybe not. Maybe I just need to wallow in a little more of my karmic consciousness. I’m a little inebriated. I’ll feel better tomorrow. Time heals. At least for we still here in this plane of existence.
Rick, I appreciate your sensitive response and will try to answer your questions maybe later tonight or tomorrow. Your third link in #49 seemed to be pertinent to the positive aspect of this process.

Posted by: juannie | Jan 8 2012 19:11 utc | 51

@juannie – I know that feeling.
When I was a kid my family always had two pigs (and a huge garden). Each year that is. We kids played with them a lot – at least until they were bigger than we were. After playing we pretty much looked the same way they did 🙂
My sister always hated the inevitable big slaughter day. Somehow it never bothered me that much. I liked to help making the sausages and whatever cuts were needed to be done. The days thereafter I was always sad, but then imagined them being reborn.
And indeed a few weeks later there were new piggies to be fed and played with. They had a good live with us. Good food, good care, though the playground for them could have been bigger.
And as a carnivore I have to admit that they tasted very well.

Posted by: b | Jan 8 2012 20:11 utc | 52

I suspect a lot more people would find meat less tasty if they were to participate in the “harvesting” of it. the vast majority of us know that meat comes in little Styrofoam packages.
as a youngster I chopped the heads off chickens, plucked their feathers, killed hogs and scraped their hair off with a big knife after they were dipped in a big barrel of hot water, and gutted and skinned cattle. the worst part for me is the smell of the guts and seeing the lifeless eyes in the severed heads.
I eat meat because my wife likes it a lot but could probably do without it. I find that I can’t think about it too much. seeing a truckload of lambs going to slaughter makes me kinda sad when I hear their soft bleating.
dunno what you can do about it. I left the farm. it is hard to eat something that you have grown fond of.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jan 8 2012 20:55 utc | 53

I have never been a vegetarian per se but I often go for long periods without eating any flesh products. I don’t feel at a loss without it but I usually enjoy it when I partake, especially good grass fed beef. I don’t think meat is necessary in my diet and this corresponds with the eat-for-your-blood-type theory which claims type A’s don’t need meat for optimum health. My wife is type O and she seems to require meat occasionally. She was a vegetarian and found some health problems went away after she introduced meat into her diet. This again conforms with the eat-for-your-blood-type theory.
Thought provoking questions Rick. This is our first time raising pigs and it is primarily my wife’s project although it was impossible for me to not get involved both because she often benefits from my help and because I enjoy getting involved and being around animals. We are by no means experts on the subject of rasing pigs. They do grow exceptionally fast and eventually get so big that they can become a hazard to be around. Although personable and friendly they can get pushy especially around food. At over three hundred pounds each when we would walk in with them to feed them and they would crowed around pushing and shoving to get to the food, I wasn’t particularly comfortable. I am sure, and have been told that if you would get knocked over and are in the way of their food they wouldn’t pay you much heed. Not a nice thought of six hundreds pounds trampling over me and I have heard it does occasionally happen. Of course as they get bigger and eat more it can get expensive to keep feeding them. In our circumstances space wasn’t much of a consideration. We live on 3.5 acres about half of which is growing “weeds” so fencing in 10000 square feet and turning them into it isn’t much of a problem. In fact it is a benefit as they clear and rout the ground, including small “weed” trees so we can turn it into more garden space. A single strand of electric fence on movable steel rods is adequate. My wife is a bee keeper and will be planting a lot of bee forage on the spots they inhabited while here. Another factor is they become much more difficult to care for in the winter and they cannot root in the hard frozen ground.
On the question of machinery, I don’t have a really good answer. Probably mostly our own biases. Working with hand tools reduces our carbon imprint although that’s just a feel good aspect and I’m holding no illusions about reducing global warming by doing so. Hand tools give us exercise and at my age all I can get is beneficial. Saves money from spending it in exercise spas. The most benefit we get is probably form all the manure they leave on the ground. I discovered that rotor tilling kills many earthworms and disturbs soil fauna and flora which are the real builders of soil health and fertility. So then what about the disturbance of their routing? I don’t know. They love worms and mycelium but turn it all back into good compost that would supposedly enhance both.
Their remains are staying on the land and composting so that part of them will also be turned back to the soil.
All said and done, I’m beginning to feel it was worth it. Their not so instant death will bother me for some time. One positive aspect we feel good about is that their lives were probably better than they would have been otherwise and certainly much better than the majority of pigs feeding our kind. It’s a done deal so we’ll move on and try to learn from whatever mistakes we can identify.
Thanks all for the interest and feedback. It is reassuring to know I can communicate these deep feelings here and know they will be honored.

Posted by: juannie | Jan 9 2012 18:49 utc | 54