Richard Silverstein at Tikun Olam recently wrote an odd story on an allegedly successful plot by the Israeli Army Intelligence against Hizbullah. The Israelis, according to Richard's story, let a bobbytrapped drone drop into south Lebanon where Hizbullah then took it to a big arms cache. The Israelis, days later, then blew up that drone and a huge explosion followed. His piece was widely cited in the Israeli media.
I believe that the story, which was provided to Richard by an unnamed Israeli source, is not true but either simply a gone-wild phantasy or an Israeli information operation probably to let the IDF intelligence shine in a good light and Hizbullah in a bad one.
Let's trace down the story which was actually two stories before Richard's secret source put them together into one.
On Saturday November 19 the Wall Street Journal reported:
On a recent Saturday afternoon, a radar operated by French United Nations peacekeepers picked up a pilotless Israeli reconnaissance drone crossing into south Lebanon. It was given no more attention than any of the dozens of other surveillance missions flown by the Israelis in Lebanese airspace each month.
But when the drone passed above Wadi Hojeir, a yawning valley with steep, brush-covered slopes, it abruptly vanished from the radar screen. The startled peacekeepers contacted the Lebanese army, and a search of the rugged valley was conducted in the early-evening gloom. Nothing was found.
The drone vanished from the radar screen. There are several possible explanations for this. The drone might have come down but there also could have been electronic countermeasures against radar observation, a malfunction of the radar or whatever one may think of. The search found no debris and no sign of a crash.
The Israelis have said nothing. Neither has Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and arch foe of Israel. The peacekeeping force is now abuzz with speculation that Hezbollah may have found a way of electronically disabling drones.
A drone vanished form the radar for unexplained reasons and now there are speculations within the UNIFIL forces of why that might have happened. There are no facts other than that a drone vanished for radar and no drone was found, just pure speculations.
Notice that the Saturday report from the WSJ sets the timeframe of the incident as "on a recent Saturday afternoon" which means that it happened at least a week, if not longer ago, before the WSJ piece came out.
On Wednesday the 23rd an explosion happened in south Lebanon. The first report about it is from the Lebanese Daily Star:
SIDDIQIN, Lebanon: An explosion shook a Hezbollah stronghold near Siddiqin in the Tyre region of south Lebanon overnight, a security source told The Daily Star Wednesday.
The Lebanese Army released a statement Wednesday afternoon saying that the explosion was likely the result of a landmine or a cluster bomb left over from the July-August war between Lebanon and Israel in 2006.
Earlier Wednesday, the security source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the cause of the blast, which was heard shortly before midnight, could not be determined due to a heavy security blanket by Hezbollah that followed the explosion.
In its statement Wednesday, the army said it had searched the area but found no trace of the explosion as it “left no visible effects.”
Early in the day, local media said the explosion likely took place at a Hezbollah arms cache.
In a statement later in the day, Hezbollah denied that the explosion in south Lebanon was a result of an explosion at an arms depot.
Here we have an unidentified "security source" claiming that the explosion happened in some "Hizbollah stronghold" and that there was a "heavy security blanket" by Hizbollah so that the site could not be viewed.
But the Lebanese Army says just the opposite. It could search the area and found nothing. Local media rumor about an "arms depot" but Hizbullah says there is none.
Further into the Daily Star story:
Four Israeli warplanes were spotted flying over Siddiqin at around 10.00 a.m. and patrols by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon were active in the area. A UNIFIL helicopter could also be seen flying over the village.
A spokesman for the U.N. peacekeeping force said UNIFIL had heard about the explosion on the news.
"We have no information at the moment. We are checking this report," Andrea Tenenti told The Daily Star by telephone.
Israeli warplanes flying over south Lebanon, despite that being in breach of several UN resolutions, is unfortunately nothing unusually. It happens daily. What is of interest here is that patrols of UNIFIL were in the area and they had seen, and heard, nothing at all.
Now comes Richard's secret source, with a tale that somehow pulls the two above stories together which lets Richard write an: Exclusive: Israeli Military Intelligence Caused Massive Explosion in Hezbollah South Lebanon Arms Cache:
Now comes an exclusive report from an authoritative Israeli source with considerable military experience, that IDF military intelligence (Aman) has out foxed Hezbollah by deliberately crash-landing a booby-trapped Trojan Horse drone in southern Lebanon.
…
For over a year, Hezbollah has been attempting to discover how to jam the ground signals commanding the drone so as to disable them in flight. When it discovered the downed craft, its operatives must’ve crowed that they’d finally discovered the key to success. This bit of hubris is how Aman drew Hezbollah into its net. Its soldiers dutifully collected the imagined intelligence trophy and brought it to a large weapons depot it controlled in the area. Once inside the arms cache, Aman detonated the drone causing a massive explosion.
Hmm … – notice that the two incidents that Richard's source puts together here have happened at least 10 days, if not longer, apart. Would Hizbullah really take a somehow obtained Israeli drone into a "large weapons depot" in south Lebanon with UNIFIL patrols in the area and leave it there for ten plus days? Would it not rather immediately truck it into the much more secure Bekaa valley or into Syria for further evaluation in a specialized weapon lab?
Richard continues the story with pure speculation:
Given that Hezbollah is reputed to have many more missiles and more advanced models than it had before the 2006 Lebanon War, we can only imagine how serious this blow will be to the group’s war fighting capability. Hezbollah is known to possess some of the most advanced Iranian rockets (the Zelzal) in anticipation of possible use should Israel attack Iran. Given the size of the explosion, we should expect that a good deal of its weapons cache in the south has been destroyed.
The Daily Star headline is about a "huge blast" but the story itself only says "an explosion" and "the blast". There is nothing like "huge" in the story. From that and his source Richard somehow comes to an allegedly given "size of the explosion" that indicates to him that "a good deal of [Hizbullah's] weapons cache in the south" has been destroyed.
Where did he get that from? And does he really believe that Hizbullah would keep Zelzal missiles, which have a range of up to 400 kilometers, just a few miles from the Israeli border? For what? To attack Port Said in Egypt? Zelzal's could reach Tel Aviv even from Lebanon's norther border. Hizbullah keeping them in the south would be lunacy.
There is this video from the Israeli website infolive.tv uploaded on November 23 which quotes Richard's story and shows pictures from a quite big smoke column coming up behind of what looks like a telecommunication building. But the video put to the story does not show the relevant explosion. The video material is simply stolen from this video which was uploaded to youtube on November 2nd by MENA and is supposed to show an explosion that happened in Beirut on April 8 2007.
So where did Mr. Silverstein and his source get that "huge explosion" that alleged destroyed a weapon cache from? From hot air?
Yesterday the Daily Star brought a follow up story of the issue:
“At 9:45 p.m. Tuesday an explosion was heard in a forested area on the outskirts of Siddiqin,” the [Lebanese Army] statement said. “After the explosion a unit from the Lebanese Army visited the area and undertook a search operation all night long until Wednesday noon.
“However, the army did not find any remnants and the explosion did not cause any visible damage. Probably, what happened was a result of a mine or cluster bomb possibly dropped by Israel [in 2006] exploding.”
The Daily Star sent a reporter into the area and here is what he found:
Calm returned Wednesday to the village, situated near the southern coastal city of Tyre, even as gossip on the blast was rife.
Most residents testified that they hadn’t heard an explosion but a local man, Hajj Ali Fakih, said he had heard a “huge” blast come from a patch of woodland known locally as Al-Jabal al-Kabir, or Big Mountain.
Hezbollah operatives carrying high-tech communications equipment spread throughout the village and accosted The Daily Star, asking why its reporter was making inquiries related to the blast.
The army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon sent patrols to Siddiqin, although the peacekeeping organization said that it had received no official word on the explosion.
“Following today’s media reports, we were in close contact with the Lebanese Army and until now we have not information to confirm that there was an explosion,” UNIFIL deputy spokesperson Andrea Tenenti told The Daily Star.
“We have 350 patrols a day and this is part of our area of operations so we do have troops there on the ground. We have no investigation at the moment.”
Nothing there we know of says UNIFIL, the Lebanese Army said someone heard an explosion, Hizbullah and most residents in the area said nothing relevant happened. Some explosion happened says an anonymous "security source" to the Daily Star and one lone man from the village.
A complicate Israeli intelligence plot destroyed a "large weapons depot" by purposefully letting a drone intentionally fall into Hizbullah's hands which then, at least ten days later, somehow ended up in said "large weapons depot" and gets exploded by IDF intelligence destroying the Hizbullah arms cache so that "a good deal of its weapons cache in the south has been destroyed" says Richard Silverstein based on his secret source.
Aheem. No Richard. I don't buy that. And I am quite sure that most other thinking people will not buy that B-movie plot either.
(BTW – could the "security source" the Daily Star cites be the same one that is talking to Richard?)
In the comments to his piece several of his readers doubt the story. One Johnboy especially takes it apart and receives, undeserved, some personal wrath from Richard who even calls him "rude".
Richard writes (November 24, 2011 at 12:36 AM):
For me, the report is about my source, whose reliability & accuracy is superb.
But how does he know that his source is right on this issue?
He adds (November 24, 2011 at 12:28 AM):
I wrote what I wrote based on the impeccable record of my source who knows what happened far better than reporters who weren’t eyewitnesses, came after the event, & never had access to the site where it took place.
But how would that "impeccable source" know that? Is Richard suggesting that his source was there at the event when it took place? If not why is that source more believable than a reporter on the ground? And how long is a source, any source, really "impeccable"?
Later I join in (November 24, 2011 at 1:09 AM):
Just to notice that this is the SECOND time a “secret source” is telling Richard that the Mossad was behind an explosion in an “enemy” country.
The first one was the recent explosion during a missile test in Iran.
It at least smells as if Richard is used here to launch such “information” that can then be quoted in the Israeli media.
Shortly thereafter I received an email from Richard, without a subject line and sign off, in which he calls that an "acid comment". Oh well …
But what happened really here? I offered my theory of what happened in another comment at Richard's site (November 24, 2011 at 4:39 AM):
This is the second time I point out that something here (this and your assertions about the Iranian missile test explosion) smells of an information operation because it is the second time you make such claims. Both based solely on the claims of your “source” which is contradicted by official statements from other sides.
Any “source” that wants to manipulate will of course first feed some real stuff into an information distribution channel before inserting false stuff into it. That is just normal operation procedure for any information operation.
If that is the case here, you would not even know that you are used.
Israel's secret services are known for launching, often false, stories in foreign media. Such "foreign" stories then can be quoted by the Israeli media. These are usually stories that are somewhat military relevant and would otherwise not pass the military censors who sit in every Israeli news room. Despite being launched in foreign media such stories are made up and put out for the domestic Israeli public for self serving and/or political reasons.
It seems to me that Richard was in this case (ab-)used by someone for such a purpose.
But Richard does not like that theory. He rather sticks to his "impeccable source" and its quite implausible story, including the "huge explosion" which no one else has noticed. In another email he lets me know that he "would rather [have] you abuse me at your own site than at my own" and that my opinion on this "frankly […] isn't worth a damn."
I'll let my readers decide on that last point.