The U.S. has pressed the Pakistani army to attack the Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. The Pakistanis have made clear that they do not want to do so. Now the U.S. seems to go for it alone. But is it the right target?
The Pakistani resistance against attacking its own people and to further incite domestic terrorism in their own country has led Obama adviser Bruce Riedel to calls for A New Pakistan Policy: Containment. The U.S. believes that the Haqqani network, which it says is responsible for the recent attack on its embassy in Kabul, is residing in North Waziristan. Right wing authors have for some time called for invading it.
But are the Haqqanis really in North Waziristan?
During the war against the Soviets the tribal Pakistani area most often used for attacks towards Kabul was the Kurram agency where the border points to Kabul like a beak. It provides the shortest route to Kabul.
For some time the Taliban were fighting with the significant local Shia population there and could not use the province as their jump-off base into Afghanistan. But recently it emerged that peace deals have been signed between those groups and the way through Kurram into Afghanistan is again open.
Bahukutumbi Raman, former head of the counterterrorism division of India's secret service RAW, believes that the Haqqani network has moved there:
My assessment is that the Haqqani network no longer operates from North Waziristan. It now operates from Pakistan’s Kurram Agency. The cadres and the training camps are in Kurram, but the leaders, who are high-value targets for U.S. drone attacks, are spread out across the country to avoid airborne attacks. The cadres carry out hit-and-withdraw raids into Afghanistan.
But the U.S. insists on doing North Waziristan and, as the Pakistanis ain't doing, it now seems to want to do it on its own:
The United States shifted hundreds of its troops to the Afghan area bordering North Waziristan on Sunday along with heavy arms and gunship helicopters and sealed the Pak-Afghan border for all types of movement.
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Pakistani security officials and tribal sources in Ghulam Khan area said US forces had arrived there during the night between Saturday and Sunday and occupied nearby hilltops and established observation posts. Sources said US forces had set up a huge military base across the border and shifted gunship helicopters, heavy tanks, long-range artillery guns and other heavy weapons to the border area. The villagers in Ghulam Khan said Nato warplanes were also seen flying over the border region several times during the day.
It is not yet clear if the U.S. is a just putting up a blocking position or if this the build-up for a large raid across the border. Just putting troops there is, like violating Pakistani airspace in Baluchistan, a threat on its own. The troops will draw fire and with that long range artillery the response might well land in Pakistan.
There it could expect resistance:
Tribesmen in North Waziristan were concerned about the arrival of US forces at their doors, but vowed to render every sacrifice for the defence of their homeland in case foreign troops crossed over into Pakistan.
However, they said they did not expect US forces to cross the border to enter Pakistani territory. “It will be a blunder on their part if the Americans enter North Waziristan,” said a noted tribal chieftain, Malik Mamoor Khan, in Miramshah. Another tribal elder, Malik Nasrullah Khan, said Waziristan was the land of brave and peace-loving tribespeople and they would never allow any outside power to invade it.
Whatever may happen with the new U.S. build up, blocking all border movement, artillery duels or an invasion into North Waziristan, it may all be in vain. If B. Raman is right the Haqqanis are not there anymore and will not care.