The Shalit Deal – Why Now?

October 12, 2011

Israel has finally agreed to let 1,000 Palestinians out of jail in a deal to get the captured IDF soldier Shalit released by Hamas.

The deal has been negotiated over for years and offers looking quite similar to the current deal were rejected by the Netanyahoo government several times.

I wonder why Netanyahoo agreed to this deal right at this point in time. Why not earlier? Why not later? Why does he think that this is the right moment?

Any ideas?

Posted by b on October 12, 2011 at 17:44 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Well one thing to remember is that Egypt on July 3rd began acting as the mediator in the talks between Hamas and Israel. The Egyptian revolution opened up alot of free access for Hamas officials to travel around Egypt helping the negotiation process.
On the “why now” part. Syrian blogger Maysaloon summed it up well: “Shalit has been released because Hamas are unhappy with Mahmoud Abbas’ attempt to push for UN recognition of a Palestinian state, and this is an attempt to boost Hamas’ popularity and relevance. Israel, similarly unhappy with Abbas, isn’t really troubled with the release of over a thousand Palestinians.”
Source: http://www.maysaloon.org/2011/10/gilad-shalit-deal-something-stinks.html?spref=tw
Also Netanyahu probably wants to earn some goodwill with the Israeli public after the heavy protests last month. He has been on an epic losing streak with Egypt, Turkey, UN Statehood Vote, Economic Protests. So probably needed a win somewhere.
On the deal itself things to look out for.
– Marwan Barghouthi (The Palestinian Nelson Mandela) and Ahmad Sa’dat (Military Commander of PFLP) are two of the biggest names. Previously Hamas refused to release Shalit without them included but Israel refused to release them. Rumors that neither will be freed.
– Israel had a demand that all one thousand prisoners will be released into Gaza but are forbidden from entering the West Bank again. So while the prisoners are free alot of them will not be able to visit their families in the West Bank and will be stuck in Gaza.
– Hamas had a demand that all Palestinian women and children in custody be on that list. (Around 260 children under 16 are in prison, unknown number of females). So this will probably one of the demands Israel meets.
– Full Prisoner list should be published tomorrow by Shin Bet. So everyone will no more then.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Oct 12 2011 19:00 utc | 1

Nancy Reagan put him in touch with her astrologer?

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Oct 12 2011 19:28 utc | 2

a creeping doubt: maybe the “Us-Saudi counter-revolution” is perhaps, after all, more Saudi than Us? could we be witnessing the formation of a new axis: Saudi Arabia – Israel – Egypt (see recent events) that behaves towards the Us like Israel has done in all these years, that is, through “faits accomplis” and great autonomy (greater than the Us would like, I mean)?
This Hamas (Egyptian and Saudi protege) deal, then, could represent the “signature” of this new pact.
The rationale for such an alliance seems obvious, given the unpredictable and contradictory Us policy.
And in general, I think Saudi Arabia is showing increasing autonomy from the Us (see for example its relationship with Pakistan)

Posted by: claudio | Oct 12 2011 20:29 utc | 3

‘One million Arabs are not worth a Jewish fingernail.”‘
age of deflation: we finally learn the going rate: 1000 arabs = i jew.

Posted by: brian | Oct 12 2011 21:00 utc | 4

‘One million Arabs are not worth a Jewish fingernail.”‘
age of deflation: we finally learn the going rate: 1000 arabs = i jew.

Posted by: brian | Oct 12 2011 21:00 utc | 5

This deal was designed to fail, imo.
The fine print says
– Bargouthi (a future contender for HAMAS leadership) isn’t part of the deal.
– 200 of the prisoners won’t be allowed to return to W Bank.
– The deal is subject to approval of the Jewish ‘flock’ and Bibi is ramping up the ter’rist paranoia to make sure it doesn’t happen.
That will enable Bibi to transform Shalit into a sacrificial lamb because the Pals won’t go along with a deal revised to please Israel’s gullibles and it will give them something else to whine about. Hatred motivated by self-pity is the Jewish religion. Take that away and life wouldn’t be worth living.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 13 2011 1:06 utc | 6

may be clear the way for another attack on gaza or lebanon, take your pick. Plus, local elections?

Posted by: shanks | Oct 13 2011 2:58 utc | 7

Did US (or European) pressure have anything to do with this?

Posted by: Bill | Oct 13 2011 14:44 utc | 8

“Bomb, bomb, bomb/Bomb, bomb Iran…
See the post at Tikhum Olim

Posted by: John Shreffler | Oct 13 2011 17:35 utc | 9

Here’s a long list of articles related, at the top, to the Shalit swap and its unsubtle flaws, then meandering via Palestinian deprivation and Jewish cupidity to OccupyWallStreet.
http://mondoweiss.net/2011/10/the-us-media-reports-gilad-shalit-swapped-for-1000-non-people-per-blumenthal.html

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 19 2011 3:58 utc | 10

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