An Odd Airstrike In Yemen – Moon of Alabama

October 2, 2011

An Odd Airstrike In Yemen

This incident which happened yesterday evening seems quite odd: Yemeni jet mistakenly bombs army post, kills 30.

It is neither clear who really bombed those troops nor if it was indeed "mistakenly".

The attack happened near Zinjibar in the south of Yemen. There has been fighting around Zinjibar for several month and there is complex mix of groups and interests involved.

Since late May Zinjibar, a town with some 20,000 inhabitants, has been in the hand of rebels which are said to include militant Islamists and "al-Qaida in the Arab peninsula (AQAP)" fighters. Yemens military has fought bloody battles with those militants since then and several hundred fighters died on both sides. There is some suspicion that the take-over of the town was secretly supported by President Saleh to raise the specter of "al-Qaida" and to demonstrate to the U.S. that only his continued rule can deny its rise.

During June and July the barracks of the Yemeni 25th Mechanised Brigade near the city were surrounded and cut off by the rebels for over a month until the brigade was relieved through heavy tanks, aerial bombing, naval rocket strikes and tribal fighters who had earlier supported the rebels and are otherwise also anti-Saleh. Their tribal leader explained that there were now too many unwanted foreigners, mostly Saudis, with the Islamists and they did want these in their area.

In late July an air strike, allegedly by the Yemen air force, killed 15 to 25 of the tribesmen supporting the military offensive. The tribesmen claimed that they had given their own position coordinates to the government and accused it of intent. Another similar "friendly fire" incident happened shortly thereafter. Throughout June and July the U.S. was also involved in air attacks on the militants in Zinjibar with fixed wing aircraft as well as drones.

Another brigade in the area, the 119th Artillery Brigade defected to the opposition which is demanding for President Saleh to step down. The brigade did not join the Islamist rebels but just stepped aside. But in August the brigade was suddenly back on the side of the government and helped to fight the rebels. It is thought to have received significant support from the U.S. military.

The town was reported to be back in government hands on September 10 but that turned out to be premature as fighting has continued since then.

Today's bombing hit a position of soldiers of the 119th Brigade.

It is possible that this was an unintended "friendly fire" strike by the Yemeni air force. It is also possible that this was an intended strike as the 119th brigade is still thought to be anti-Saleh. It might have been a strike by U.S. planes which was probably given the coordinates to hit by Saleh's government. Saleh has used such a trick last year when he gave coordinates of a rival army commander's headquarter to the Saudis claiming they were for Houthi positions the Saudi troops were then fighting and bombing.

The story makes clear that the issues in Yemen are very, very complex.

But what is somewhat unexplainable in the whole Zinjibar story is that several brigades of the Yemeni military have not been able to free the town for over three month even with tribal help and U.S. support and against militants who have no obvious support or supply lines from outside. This makes the rumors of Saleh's secret support for these Islamists quite believable.

Saleh's strategy towards the U.S. is to present himself as the only man who can keep AQAP down and the country together. While the U.S. had earlier called for Salh to step down as president it recently allowed him to leave Saudi Arabia, where he had been for medical care after an assassination attempt, and to come back into the country.

It seems that Saleh's strategy has so far worked quite well for him and yesterday's air strike may have been just another of his tricks to keep the AQAP problem alive and himself at the top.

Posted by b on October 2, 2011 at 17:21 UTC | Permalink

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This weeks Swoop:

[The administration] is further delighted at the successful assassination of Anwar al-Awlaki, the Al-Qaeda leader in the Arabian Peninsular. Behind the scenes, some officials at the National Security Council are beginning to worry that the US approach to the “Arab Spring” is starting to veer back to the traditional US priority for stability over reform. One official cautioned privately: “To set up the right circumstances which permitted the Awlaki killing, we had to make a number of concession to the Yemeni government, involving the return of President Saleh. There are inconsistent with our reform agenda. We are most concerned that the Egyptian military is receiving the wrong message and will try to delay democratic elections and crack down on participants.”

Posted by: b | Oct 3 2011 5:44 utc | 1

This is also odd. Yesterdays AP piece linked at the top says:

SANAA, Yemen (AP) — A government warplane bombed an army position in southern Yemen, killing at least 30 soldiers involved in months of intense battles against al-Qaida members, officials said Sunday.
The strike appeared to be a mistake, but the soldiers hit were from a unit that had defected to side with protesters seeking the president’s ouster in Yemen’s chapter of the Arab Spring, raising questions about whether the bombing might have been intentional.

But today’s NYT has nothing about that.

In Zinjibar, a city captured last May by Islamic militants linked with Al Qaeda, about 25 militants and 20 soldiers have been killed in fighting over two days, local security officials said.
Dozens of other militants were killed by airstrikes elsewhere in Abyan Province, the officials said, including one that hit a school in the city of Jaar that was being used by the militants as a base.

The soldiers of the 119th brigade seem to be just “militants” in the NYT’s view …
And look how the NYT can tell from watching videos who is AQ and who is not:

In the south, where large portions of the population remain disgruntled with the central government, it is not always clear who is a member of Al Qaeda and who is just a young man with a gun. However, local reports and video from Zinjibar suggest the presence of at least some Qaeda members among the armed militants fighting the government there, some of whom are foreign citizens. Other militants appear to have come from provinces across Yemen.

Posted by: b | Oct 3 2011 6:04 utc | 2

Yemen Post: Saleh to Use Terror File to Stay in Power; World Must not be Tricked

The Yemen government is now seeking to intensify its fight against al-Qaeda to shift the international pressure from regime change in Yemen. It is forgetting the fact that its forces were the reason why Islamic militants in the southern Abyan province were able to control the entire province in a matter of one day.
The Saleh government evacuated more than 10,000 troops from province and left it for the extremists.
The tactic of evacuating more than 120,000 innocent civilians from the province has resulted in the damage of more than 4000 homes and death of more than 370 civilians this year in the province. All this only to trick the west that he is a strong ally against al-Qaeda and if he leaves power, the country will be taken over by them.
Leading analysts within Yemen’s largest opposition, the Islah party, claim that Mr Saleh has very strong links with al-Qaeda and is willing to sacrifice a number of their leaderships to please the United States.
Ali Jaradi, an editor at Ahale newspaper and a political analyst said that Mr Saleh is expecting more US cooperation in exchange for Awlaqi and will use the US support to stop any UN plans to send his criminal file to the security council.
“It’s a game between Saleh and the United States. Both help each other while the Yemeni people continue to die and suffer,” said Jaradi.

Posted by: b | Oct 3 2011 11:48 utc | 3

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