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Saudis To Join Yemen's Cauldron?

Yemens's president Saleh survived the assassination attempt against him and after some time in a Saudi hospital he is now back on the political scene. Despite continuing protests against him Saleh still wants to stay in office. As Gregory Johnson wrote a few days ago:

Salih's strategy is working. He is dragging the hoped for transition out, and the creaky alliance of anti-Salih actors is starting to break-down. This is particularly true when it comes to the north-south division.

This is both sad and predictable. Salih has been doing this for the past 33 years, and while the alliance held for several months, it now looks, at least from the outside, as if there are serious fissures that Salih can easily exploit, even from medical exile in Saudi Arabia.

Yesterday Saleh again tried to avoid signing the GCC negotiated resignation and to thereby hand off power:

Amidst president Saleh’s declarations that he gave vice-president Hadi a mandate to negotiate with the Opposition the country’s transfer of power on the base of a modified GCC proposal, his armed forces were conducting military airstrikes against Arhab tribesmen this Tuesday.

According to medical officials, 7 civilians were killed in the bombing and a few hundreds injured.

Arhab which is situated a few kilometers North of Sana’a, is home to tribes loyal to the revolution. For months, the tribes which are under the direct leadership of Sheikh Sadeeq al-Ahmar, the all powerful tribal leader of the Hasheed confederation and Sheikh al-Zindani, an influential cleric and senior member of al-Islah party, have sworn to defend the roads leading to the capital, preventing government troops to route their reinforcements through their territories.

As a result, the area has been heavily bombarded for months, forcing villagers to find refuge in the mountain caves.

The government is now claiming that the tribesmen are all al-Qaeda militants, adding that Arhab is a well known terrorist hub.
...
[A]s people were dying in Arhab, hundreds of thousands were demonstrating against the regime’s new claims to negotiate, voicing their anger and frustrations onto the streets of the capital, Sana’a. The move was echoed across the country, as other towns and villages join them in their demands.

Protesters were heard chanting: “No deal, no maneuvering, the president should leave.” Because if Saleh is allowing Hadi to dialogue with his political opponents, he reserved himself the right to refute the proposal.

Today Saleh's forces used live fire (video from Taiz) against protests in what seems to be a new intend to put an end to the demonstrations. Attacks also hit fighters of the tribal federation that somewhat supports the protesters:

Mohammad al-Qadhi, a former managing editor of Yemen Times, told Al Jazeera that clashes had taken place between fighters supporting Sadiq [Al-Ahmer], the leader of the most powerful tribal federation, and troops loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Al-Ahmar is among the tribal leaders calling for the departure of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Two of his fighters were wounded in the shelling, the source said.

This protests and clashes between Saleh forces and major tribes just add to the mayhem with other fights occurring in the south-west of Yemen where Islamist fighters have taken over some areas and are clashing with the military while being bombed by U.S. planes. But as things can always get worse, the Saudis now seem to also want a place in the cauldron:

According to military sources, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would have dispatched a convoy of armored vehicles, amongst which were war tanks, and other military equipment to Yemen in order for its regime to quell the rising popular movement against president Saleh.

After having attempted for months to bring a political solution to Yemen’s popular uprising, it seems that the Kingdom has exhausted its diplomatic avenues, preferring to refer to oppressive methods to re-establish tranquility.

In late 2009 the Saudis fought a border war with Zaydi (a Shia sect) smugglers from the Houthi tribes in north west Yemen.

It did not end well. Despite massive use of fighter planes, Apache attack helicopters and tanks against a rag tag tribal militia the Saudis took quite some casualties with about 100 dead and 400 wounded and the situation ended with a stalemate.

The Saudis were able to put down peaceful protests after they invaded Bahrain but the situation in Yemen is different. The tribes which support the protests are quite large, have lots of weapons and are experienced fighters. Additionally parts of the military earlier defected and has joint their cause.

If the Saudis really try to reestablish Saleh by military force they are likely in for some bloody surprises.

Additional resources: Yemen, wall map (jpg)

Posted by b on September 15, 2011 at 14:12 UTC | Permalink

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