Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 8, 2011
Preparing For War On Syria

Arab nations condemn Syria as crackdown mounts

Arab nations joined the international chorus of condemnation against President Bashar Assad's regime Monday, with Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia pulling out their ambassadors as a besieged Syrian city came under fresh artillery fire.

Now this is of course a joke because those bastions of human rights Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait just put down a civil uprising in Bahrain with just the same methods Assad is using in Syria.

The difference is that, while the protests in Bahrain included rioting, the people involved were not armed. There is ample evidence by now that the protest in Syria are much more violent and some of the people involved are significantly armed.

And forget the half sentence about "fresh artillery fire". There is no evidence of all that the Syrian army is using artillery. None of the available videos has shown mortars or artillery or damage that could have been caused by them. The armies adversaries so far have used automatic weapons and sniper rifles.  That makes it somewhat difficult for the army to take the towns back under control. But that would certainly not be a reason to apply highly destructive artillery into build up areas and to destroy the roads the army needs to move on. 

Back to the Gulf states. The U.S. must have pushed them to do take this laughable step. Within the propaganda tale the "west" can now feel "invited" to take measures further. It is a sure sign that it the U.S. is planing to escalate the issue.

There was a discussion on the German TV yesterday about intervention in Syria. While the result was correct, that any intervention would be bad for everyone involved and lead to total chaos, the information given was extremely one sided. Assad was called a purposeful murderer of his people as if he wants to kill people for just for the fun of it and as if he had started the whole thing. There was no mentioning at all of the 400+ soldiers and policemen the "peaceful protesters" have killed so far or about the weapons coming in from the Salafis in Jordan, from Tripoli and Iraq.

The typical "western" propaganda machine is now in full assault mode. The people behind it will do everything to keep the protests in Syria alive and to get them more arms. Some "event" will be found, likely as false as CNN's story about Syrian baby dying in incubators, to press Russia and China to change their mind.

That mind change is unlikely to come. There might then be another NATO coalition of the willing that may press and support the Sunni Turkey government to go all in and attack Syria. I hope the Turks understand that this would rip also their country apart.

Comments

The key now is Iran’s support for Syria. How determined and assured will the support be. Too soft and Syria will be attacked. Tough times ahead for all. Luckily the Iranians are not spur of the moment politicians. What would happen if Turkey (NATO) attacked Syria, Iran defence pact with Syria will come into play.

Posted by: hans | Aug 8 2011 17:51 utc | 1

things seem to be falling apart in israel… we got to wonder if aumann’s game theory has failed so badly that common sense might prevail.
naw… not a chance in hell.. because common sense dictates the end of the jewish state and the establishment of an jewish/arab state based on justice.
israel seems to have self-selected for nutballs, and syria is one of the main stumbling blocks blocking israel’s intent to establish itself as the rotterdam of the middle east.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 18:07 utc | 2

i guess what you got to do is look at google maps of rotterdam and haifa, and then you got to marvel at the lunacy of the power of positive thinking…
or maybe you could marvel at the idiocy of being such a powerful empire that you can “create your own reality”, presumably including the capability of haifa, in an era of rising sea level, to become the oil export center of the middle east.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 18:15 utc | 3

“I hope the Turks understand that this would rip also their country apart.”
Not likely based on M.K Bhadrakumar’s article today. He says that Turkey has been quietly pressing NATO to back up a Turkish intervention but that so far European countries are resisting due to distrust over Turkey’s motives and campaigns already in Libya, Af/Pak, and Iraq.
Also tomorrow Turkey’s foreign minister Davutoglu (also referred to in the West as the “Turkish Henry Kissinger”, plus architect of neo-ottoman foreign policy) arrives in Syria for a meeting thought to be to deliver a threat for Assad to reform/stand down or else. Also the article mentions that Turkey is “confident” of Saudi financing for any conflict in Syria.
Erodogan’s calculated Syria affront: Asia Times – http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH09Ak01.html

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Aug 8 2011 18:28 utc | 4

M.K Bhadrakumar is an indian… guess who’s he’s speaking for.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 18:30 utc | 5

i wonder if good ol’ M.K Bhadrakumar has addressed israel’s cozy relationship with kurds.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 18:33 utc | 6

sorry, but the battle lines are being drawn, and they’re getting to obvious to ignore.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 18:38 utc | 7

That is a silly rumour, what would Turkey get out of that, there is nothing to gain. Their current government successfully toned down religious and ethnic conflict, and just finally tamed the army generals, a war would open all the old wounds.
There is keen competition for Middle East influence between Gulf States, Turkey and Iran. So much of this is for show. As Assad is on speaking terms with Ban Ki Moon again, I guess the situation in Syria is under control now.
So this is PR war.

Posted by: somebody | Aug 8 2011 18:52 utc | 8

by the way, what is going on here:
http://www.hudson-ny.org/2323/icc-libyan-war-crimes
it is not so much the what, it is the who

Posted by: somebody | Aug 8 2011 19:14 utc | 9

@9,
Couldn’t you find a more Zionist site?

Posted by: Biklett | Aug 8 2011 20:00 utc | 10

Head of French Company Is Killed in Libyan City
BENGHAZI, Libya — The president of a French private security company who had scheduled a meeting on Thursday to discuss business opportunities with opponents of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi died in a hospital here on Wednesday, apparently after he was shot in the stomach, the French Foreign Ministry and rebel officials here in Benghazi said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/world/africa/13benghazi.html?_r=1

Posted by: ghe | Aug 8 2011 20:06 utc | 11

@groundresonance
Yeah I know that M.K Bhadrakumar is an Indian, he’s a former diplomat and ambassador. I don’t see why that would make him have any conflict of interest in respect to Syria and Turkey. In fact he writes alot on India and Pakistan as well, that is balanced and generally sharp.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Aug 8 2011 20:56 utc | 12

how many wars can US’s first black presidential dictator juggle?!

Posted by: brian | Aug 8 2011 21:42 utc | 13

colin, it’s just that it looks to me like the indians are partners in the PNAC project, so mr Bhadrakumar’s “balance and sharpness” should be taken with a grain of salt.
here’s the map, again… i’m waiting for someone to defeat the logic and facts of the situation.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 22:42 utc | 14

no 10 I know, I think the word is neocon, that is why I find it interesting

Posted by: somebody | Aug 8 2011 22:51 utc | 15

sorry for misspelling your name in my previous post, colm…
it looks like the indans are willing to pay the extra freight for the extra five or six thousand miles as oil and gas are routed out of the persian gulf/central asia, through turkey and israel, and finally to india, instead of the direct route –persian gulf or central asia, through iran, afghanistan and pakistan to india.
google: turkey israel pipeline india
then there’s the phony dispute about india paying its energy bills to iran… just more harassment of iran.
google: india iran energy payments

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 8 2011 23:19 utc | 16

@ groundresonance
Interesting map I’ll have to look at the details on it closely, lot of info there. On the whole I guess my view is that while certainly allied closely with the US I don’t think India would sign onto any of the neo-con plans to lock down the Middle East. India seems to me anyway like a nation that is good at hedging it bets and staying on the fence. They are close to the US but also part of the SCO, they might side with the US on some things but I think the Indians wouldn’t want to risk pissing off a rising China. The Indian intelligance agency is smart I think between a choice of siding with an economically weak US-EU or a strong China and a recovering Russia they would side with Russia/China.
I also read about the India payment problems with Iran but that seems part of the bigger problem of economic sanctions hampering payments. China also recently agreed to pay back Iran for gas using a barter system to get around the sanctions. I’ve heard the Indians are going to make the payment in Euros routed through a Turkish bank.
In short everyone in Asia with any knowledge of geo-politics knows that the US is a collapsing empire and that soon China will be king. All the PNAC and Neo-Con plans will be impossible to achieve and if India is half as smart as I think they are they will back the winner (China) when the moment of choice comes.
I see on that map you linked to that there are alot of military bases in Afghanistan but soon the US will be defeated and out of there. ICOS a European think tank a few years ago created a few maps of Taliban progress from 2007-2009 based on studies on the ground. There maps are linked below:
Afghanistan 2007 – http://www.icosmaps.net/taliban_presence/043_map/iframe_3#top
Afghanistan 2008 – http://www.icosmaps.net/taliban_presence/044_map/iframe_3#top
Afghanistan 2009 – http://www.icosmaps.net/taliban_presence/050_map/iframe_3#top
I would say those PNAC plans for cutting Russia-China off from the Middle East have all failed already. NATO can’t even succeed in getting Gaddaffi out, is retreating in Afghanistan, and will probably be down to 10,000 troops in Iraq by the end of the year.

Posted by: Colm O’ Toole | Aug 9 2011 2:20 utc | 17

if indians are so amart, how come they’re tromping all over their dicks when it comes to access to energy?

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 9 2011 2:27 utc | 18

if indians are so smart, how come they’re tromping on their dicks when it comes to access to energy?
that is not a rhetorical question… indians are smart enough to become a satellite of losers… is that what you’re trying to say?
is that evidence of intelligence, or evidence of something else?

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 9 2011 2:43 utc | 19

be a good idea if you guys quit using those irish names.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 9 2011 3:11 utc | 20

Speaking as an Indian, we probably caved in. Mani Shankar Aiyar was trying hard to diversify the petro sources from Kazakhastan to Sakhalin Islands. Was doing it well too, from a geo political context, Russians, dictators, the works
And the US got him replaced.
http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/wikileaks-on-mani-shankar-storms-parliament-91832
And Aiyar was remarkably quiet of his removal; he just kept mum and moved on.
The die has been cast, a long time ago.

Posted by: shanks | Aug 9 2011 3:18 utc | 21

I’m not sure what (or if) MKB was thinking when he wrote his ‘affront’ article. I have strong doubts that Turkey will intervene in Syria.
MKB claims that half of the Syrian refugees have returned home (over a period of 4 weeks or so), so the refugee ‘crisis’ motivation is all but dead in the water.
More importantly, Erdogan’s re-shaping of the military to bring it under civilian control is only in its infancy. Locking up a few dozen high-ranking military ideologues won’t change its established “protector of last resort” culture overnight. I would argue that every recruit for the past 20 years joined because of this culture – not in spite of it.
If Erdogan mobilises the ‘demoralised and humiliated’ army at this sensitive stage in the transition from military to civilian rule, for a half-baked reason, it will be tantamount to facilitating his own overthrow.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 9 2011 4:39 utc | 22

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21053.html
“The Pentagon sponsored a first-of-its-kind war game last month focused not on bullets and bombs — but on how hostile nations might seek to cripple the U.S. economy, a scenario made all the more real by the global financial crisis.”
“In the end, there was sobering news for the United States – the savviest economic warrior proved to be China, a growing economic power that strengthened its position the most over the course of the war-game.
The United States remained the world’s largest economy but significantly degraded its standing in a series of financial skirmishes with Russia, participants said.”
That applies to all skirmishes in the new multipolar world. Skirmishes degrade your standing significantly.

Posted by: somebody | Aug 9 2011 4:47 utc | 23

israeli pandering to kurds has nothing to do with the situation in turkey.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 9 2011 4:49 utc | 24

you get this loopy goddamned idea… and it doesnt make any difference whether or not it’s a good idea… nope, the only thing that matters is if you can sell the son of a bitch.
too bad the turks arent buying.

Posted by: groundresonance | Aug 9 2011 4:56 utc | 25

Syrian President Bashar Assad target of war crimes investigation

A fact-finding mission funded by at least one Western government is said to be gathering evidence to be used to indict Bashar Assad over his brutal crackdown on Syria’s democracy movement.

They would need a UNSC resolution to get the ICC involved. Not gonna happen.

Posted by: b | Aug 10 2011 9:01 utc | 26

BBC, now CNN reporting US saying Assad “must step down.”

The United States is moving toward issuing an explicit call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, U.S. government sources told CNN Tuesday.
The move is expected to be announced in coming days after U.S. officials consult with the United Nations Security Council, the sources said.
The question of whether to call for al-Assad to step down has been under discussion over the past few weeks, the sources said.
Officials described the White House as being more eager to make the announcement while the State Department is being more cautious about the ramifications should al-Assad not heed the call.
Snip
“Treasury is preparing to announce additional sanctions this week targeting major elements of Syria’s financial and commercial infrastructure that are providing critical support to the regime,” the official said. (My emphasis)

This is usually a step preceding some kind of assault or invasion.
Maybe Obama will do such a thing. And then use the expense to demand more cuts to SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid, and other social safety net programs.
Damn, he’s really trying to out-Republican the Republicans….

Posted by: jawbone | Aug 10 2011 13:36 utc | 27

This story on Saudi sponsored arms smuggling into Syria (signaled at the always useful Boiling Frogs site) reminds us that arms trafficking has not stopped since Victor Bout has been on ice. Has it even diminished?

Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | Aug 13 2011 13:18 utc | 28