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June 7, 2011
More Thoughts On Syria

Syria claims that 120 security forces where killed yesterday in a fight around the town Jisr al-Shughour.

Tony Karon, with whom I usually agree, believes that this, be it true or not, will be a justification for further state action. But he does not think that there will be any "western" intervention.

I am sure of the first part. What else can a state do when faced with an armed rebellion? On the second point I am pretty sure that there is already foreign intervention in Syria, mostly with money from the Gulf, but also through the various "western" clandestine services who support this or that dissident.

There is one point though where I believe Karon lost the ball. He writes:

[T]here have been growing signs in recent weeks that the violence unleashed by the armed forces to suppress civil disobedience has called forth a violent response from some opposition supporters, just as it did in Libya.

The violence by the rebels did not start in "recent weeks". It was there from the very start. Whatever there may have been of legitimate peaceful protests was immediately taken over by groups with no qualms about killing security personal or anyone else.

As Joshua Landis reported on April 11:

The Syrian revolution struck home yesterday. My wife, Manar Qash`ur [Kachour], burst into tears last night as she read the Facebook page that has kept her updated on events in her hometown, Latakia. Lt. Colonel Yasir Qash`ur, who was Manar’s cousin and 40 years old, was shot in Banyas on Sunday. He was one of two Lt. Colonels and 10 military personnel killed – more were wounded. Yasir’s funeral was held in the village this morning – Monday. My brother-in-law, Firas, and father-in-law, Shaaban, both attended.

"Western" media, quoting "Syrian activists" from Sweden, Spain and Washington DC, to report of peaceful protests that are met by brutal state forces while ignoring the rebels weapons are just spewing propaganda.

Landis also provides a report of outside forces behind the rebels. The 80-year-old veteran Syrian human rights lawyer Haytham al-Maleh was released from prison on March 8. He is certainly not a friend of the regime. He was interviewed by Alix Van Buren, a veteran reporter for la Repubblica, Italy’s leading newspaper, in Damascus. Van Buren writes:

Haytham al-Maleh was the most explicit in pointing to the meddling of Khaddam people in and around Banias. He also mentioned the “loose dogs” loyal to Rifa’t al-Assad. According to him they are active particularly along the coast between Tartous and Latakya.

Van Burens full interview with al-Maleh in Italian and in English as computer translation.

I continue to stick to my earlier analysis:

Unlike in Egypt there is no sign that the army will abandon the ruling government. [..] There is no sign that a majority or even significant minority of Syrians has any interest in violent regime change.

My current assessment is therefor that the regime will now put up a bit of a fight and, if it can stomach to do that harshly enough, it will win this fight.

Posted by b on June 7, 2011 at 14:40 UTC | Permalink
Comments

There may not be “western” intervention, but you can be sure that the Saudis’ lap dog Hariri has been active from the outset. Those involved in the March 14 alliance are eager to repay Syria for its 30 year occupation of Lebanon and for supporting the March 8 alliance, including Hezbollah.
And then let’s not forget Israel, which would love nothing better than to punish Syria for supporting Hezbollah and forcing them end their 20 year occupation of Southern Lebanon. And if Israel is covertly involved, it’s clear that their lap dog Obama has given his support.

Posted by: JohnH | Jun 7 2011 15:07 utc | 1

b’s thoughts concerning a possible Israeli attack on Lebanon only make sense in the context of a liaison with Syrian rebels; otherwise, it would be a recipe for disaster, as many commentators pointed out;
if Israel is fueling the revolt, of which I’m not sure, then it’s playing with fire, and neither am I sure that it would have the support of Obama; but parts of the Us establishment may well be behind it; Us foreign policy isn’t under a coherent political control, and there are many actors, factions and lobbies ready to act autonomously, especially since only covert actions are involved; they push their agenda till there’s a fait accompli and then the administration inevitably follows (see for example the military coup in Honduras)
but the worst scenario is where an Israel out of control (because of exasperation arising from the fundamental failure of the Zionist project to ethnically cleanse the region) plays with fire without the involvement of the Us administration; this might soon mean nukes on Syria, or Iran, or somebody, as soon as their actions will backfire
of course, these are (as always) thoughts, feelings; we can only guess at the real moves and motives of power; but this doesn’t mean we can’t discern patterns and judge the effects

Posted by: claudio | Jun 7 2011 17:32 utc | 2

The level propaganda and real war on Syria was stepped a more few notches up.
See:
Syria’s ambassador to Frace resigns (gets broadcasted as top news)
Or perhaps not
With Sarkozy’s France trying to make a Lybia on Syria at the UNSC.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jun 7 2011 19:05 utc | 3

“Win this fight” yes quite possibly, but, I have trouble believing that the Syrian regime can stabilize itself again and manage long term. The problem is that “real-existing-Baathism”, much like the former Eastern European dictatorships, is rotten to the core.
The Baathists are irredeemably awful and pathetic and, worst of all, they know it. Brutal enough to hang on, but too tired and weak to evolve. Something will give. Dapper young Assad had surely not planned on dying a violent death.

Posted by: Guthman Bey | Jun 8 2011 0:19 utc | 4

I really don’t believe a word the Syrian government tells me. I don’t know how many security people were killed or why. 120 killed in an ambush by local fighters with small arms is simply not credible. That is not to say the opposition is entirely peaceful or truthful. They will exaggerate or invent claims of brutality to serve their purpose. They will use disinformation such as allegations of desertion. And yes, I’m sure the protest movement has been infiltrated by bad elements (Khaddam, Rif’at Al Assad.)
But Supporting the Assad government/crime family is impossible for me. This is not Iran 2009, where one side made demonstrably false claims of fraud in an open election where multiple candidates had an opportunity to debate and campaign. Here there have been no elections. Ever. And there never will be.
I understand the impulse to Support the Syrian government because of its willingness to stand up to the US and Israel and support Hizbullah. But such policies will not change in any future future government. Syria needs Hizb to have any chance of regaining the Golan Heights. And no new government can afford to give up claims to the Golan.
I suspect Assad has more support than Mubarak did. I doubt he has anything like majority support. Certainly he will never submit to an election to prove me wrong. Outside of Syria, whatever popularity he once had is gone. At least, not many Egyptians will speak up in his defense.
That said, UNSC sanctions and threats of intervention are a serious risk and are designed to destroy Syria, not to save it. Russia has promised to veto any UNSC resolution and I hope they follow through. Syria has been a Russian ally for 5 decades and they will not feed it to the NATO wolves.

Posted by: Lysander | Jun 8 2011 2:55 utc | 5

the whole fucking chessboard makes me sick.

Posted by: lizard | Jun 8 2011 4:52 utc | 6

Russia has promised to veto any UNSC resolution and I hope they follow through. Syria has been a Russian ally for 5 decades and they will not feed it to the NATO wolves.

Russia under Putin it might be true, not under the crypto Zionist Mededev. Russia has no allies except itself!

Posted by: hans | Jun 8 2011 6:46 utc | 7

I am beginning to think the plan is to explode the whole region
http://blog.dailyalert.org/2011/04/01/redrawing-borders-in-the-middle-east/ to weaken it.
And yes, Sarajevo is the model, going a century back. Let’s see who is involved: France, Britain, Italy, Turkey, Russia, the US, China ….
Germany, keep out of there! Guido Westerwelle is a hero!

Posted by: somebody | Jun 8 2011 7:18 utc | 8

@somebody – the “redrawing of borders” is an old temptation, but I don’t know if it’s effectively a driving force in current events in the Arab world; but the link you provided is worth a closer look:

The fundamental problem characterizing Middle Eastern states is that they have no legitimacy in the eyes of their citizenry because their borders were marked by European colonial interests. Included within these borders were ethnic, religious, denominational and tribal groups who, throughout history, were often unable to live together in peace. Every one of the Arab states, except the Gulf Emirates, is a conglomeration of these traditional groups.
If the world wishes to bring stability to the Middle East, there is no choice but to let the modern Arab countries – whose boundaries were set by colonialism – collapse and break up into small states, each based on one homogeneous group. It is time to re-think colonialism and the problematic legacy it bequeathed the Arab world.

Well, starting from the same premises, an opposite conclusion is possibe, as proposed by (the great, for me) Shahid Alam: let them unite!

Posted by: claudio | Jun 8 2011 13:30 utc | 9

correct link to Shahid Alam

Posted by: claudio | Jun 8 2011 14:19 utc | 10

I agree, Claudio, it would be the only intelligent way out for the people concerned. they must feel really burnt by nationalism in Ex-Yougoslavia, stuck in semi-recognized unviable mini-states with the prospect to reunite in the EU, if they behave.

Posted by: somebody | Jun 8 2011 14:50 utc | 11

That gay american-syrian blogger allegedly taken down by state-security is fake:

The reported disappearance of a Syrian-American lesbian blogger is taking a mysterious turn as a London woman claims photos plastered across the Internet and newspapers are of her, not of the blogger.
The blogger, Amina Abdallah Araf, was last seen Monday in Damascus being bundled into a car by three men in civilian clothes, according to her cousin, Rania Ismail, as reported by the Associated Press. Ms. Araf, which chronicles her life in “A Gay Girl in Damascus,” included descriptions of her participation in antiregime demonstrations and has seen its public profile rise since the conflict broke out.
Media reports of Ms. Araf’s detention have spurred widespread coverage, accompanied by a photo of a young woman with dark hair and a mole above her left eyebrow. A Facebook page devoted to her plight has drawn a growing number of supporters.
A London publicist said Wednesday that the photos circulating on the Web and in the media show someone else entirely. The photos are of Jelena Lecic, who lives in London, according to publicist, Julius Just. A press release he distributed includes a photo of a woman who he says is Ms. Lecic, who appears to be the same woman in the photos accompanying stories about Ms. Araf. Mr. Just said Ms. Lecic’s ex-husband contacted him when he saw that the photos circulating of Ms. Araf were in fact of his ex-wife.
Ms. Araf’s story has drawn skeptics. NPR’s Andy Carvin and the New York Times’ Lede blog and raised questions over Ms. Araf’s circumstances, as nobody has been able to verify that they have in fact met Ms. Araf in person and that she is in fact behind the blog “A Gay Girl in Damascus.”
…There is certainly more fake news about Syria around …

Posted by: b | Jun 9 2011 4:30 utc | 12

Secret air strikes on ‘Al Qaeda’ in Yemen? Or secret air strikes in old assets that have become liabilities?

Posted by: ThePaper | Jun 9 2011 6:44 utc | 13

The decline of this blog into boldfaced apologetics for weird fascistic paleo-dictatorships is sort of interesting. Bataille and Althusser and a bunch of other euro-assholes used to write florid defenses for Stalin, so b is just respecting the tradition.

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 9 2011 18:20 utc | 14

slothrop, I was so missing you. What would come of this blog without its resident troll?
Anyway I will bit and say that discussing reality and apologizing for a regime are two different concepts. Or do you mean that any means (and hidden purposes) are fine as long as ‘fascist paleo-dictatorship’ (just by chance not so friendly with our democratically peace loving western governments) are overthrow? Like for example promoting radical sectarian groups, some being actually armed militias/terrorists, spreading blatting false dumb propaganda around and bombing (and as a ‘collateral’) killing hundreds or thousands people (soldiers and/or supporters of a regime/government are still people)?

Posted by: ThePaper | Jun 9 2011 18:50 utc | 15

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