A while ago I wrote about the tribal insurrection in Libya and some readers took issue especially with this sentences:
With "western" intervention the situation on the ground would quickly deteriorate. This would cost a lot more lives than any situation in which the Libyan people fight this out by and for themselves.
The military situation is currently a stalemate and on the humanitarian side the situation is bad and getting worse:
In launching the appeal, U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Libya, Panos Moumtzis, says his main concern is for the western part of Libya where 80 percent of the population lives. “Our concern for the west is that the situation in the west due to the sanctions, with the low availability of medical supplies, of food supplies, the fuel embargo, the cash flow shortages-it is really like a time bomb ticking where the longer the crisis lasts, the more grave the humanitarian situation is,” said Moumtzis.
With the country under blockade by the "western" militaries, there are now gasoline shortages which make the supply of food, medicines and everything else difficult. 750.000 people fled the country including some 60% of the mostly foreign health staff.
Intervention by sanctions and/or by military means inevitably makes a conflict situation worse for the majority of the people on the ground. There are countless examples for this and I am not aware of even one situation where international sanctions or military intervention led to less a conflict. The outcome here was really obvious.
I do not wonder about Cameron's, Sarkozy's or Obama's motivation, that's oil and power. But why some commentators at MoA had the idea that an intervention by "western" might in Libya, be it through sanctions or no fly zones or anything else, would be somewhat "humanitarian" and called for it is something I don't get.