Missing in most current “western” news accounts of “Osama’s is dead” is that a helicopter was shut down and crashed during the operation (or was this a diversion?) and that the place of the event is only a short walk away from the Pakistani Military Academy in Abbottabad. And what about Umar Patek, “an al-Qaida-linked Indonesian militant,” who was captured in Abbottabad in late January? Also missing is analysis how this event relates to the botched attempt to assassinate Gaddafi a day earlier. Keep in mind that both operations were ordered by the same man in the White House.
One might believes that Osama Bin Laden was killed yesterday or, as I do, that he died years ago. One might believe that the U.S. killed him or the Pakistanis as Xinhua claims. The information we have is incomplete. It all does not really matter because most people on all sides will believe what the PTB and media are telling them. We need to keep that in mind if we want to understand the likely reactions to this event.
Shortly before the announcement the U.S. put its people in Afghanistan into unprecedented lock-down mode:
The ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) has taken an unusual step by issuing a warning to all internationals, alerting of coordinated “spectacular attacks”, kidnapping of internationals, suicide bombings, and all manner of general mayhem to kick off Sunday, 1 May. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time ISAF has ever distributed a written warning to internationals at large, it’s also the first time ISAF has used social media to reach out to the general public.
The UN has sent all their internationals scurrying to seek shelter in local PRT’s and declared “WHITE CITY” countrywide. This means emergency road movements only. Afghan security forces (ANSF) are out in force all over the country. Our local workers are now clearly spooked, but oddly none of them seem to know of any specific threat.
It is there that the U.S. expects an immediate response but it as several other governments also issued a general terror and travel warning.
But any immediate response is most likely to come in Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban are in revenge mode:
“Now Pakistani rulers, President Zardari and the army will be our first targets. America will be our second target,” Ehsanullah Ehsan, a spokesman for Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Taliban Movement of Pakistan, told Reuters by telephone from an undisclosed location.
Asia Times Online contacts in the North Waziristan tribal area […] all confirmed an immediate and fierce retaliation against Pakistan and the breaking up of all ceasefire agreements with the Pakistan military.
The recent events will be perceived as another loss of Pakistani sovereignty and incite more anti-American feelings there and more hate for the Pakistani government cooperation with the United States.
A significant Pakistani Taliban campaign against its government can easily bring the country to the brink and keep it there for a while until saner powers in its military manage to pull it back. Any interference from outside, especially a continuation of the drone campaign, will make the situation worse and should be avoided. Unfortunately the U.S. is unlikely to be patient and will try to do something when it perceives a destabilizing and untrustworthy Pakistan. The result may be a war on Pakistan form the inside as well as the outside.
Attacks against fuel tankers supplying U.S. forces in Afghanistan through Pakistan will again be news even when, as the last three days provide, those attacks never really stopped.
It is unlikely that there will be a significant change of the situation in Afghanistan. “Al-Qaida” hasn’t played any role there for a quite long time. This summer Obama will remove a few thousand troops as planned but he will otherwise continue the campaign without much change of pace. If he would try to pull back from Afghanistan without more political cover the Republicans would immediately again call him “weak on defense issues.” The Afghan Taliban will also continue their attrition campaign as planned though events in Pakistan may make the northern NATO supply lines an even more juicy strategic target.
Other countries and the “al-Qaida affiliates” there are currently absorbed with local issues. The compromise solution in Yemen with Saleh stepping down failed and makes a civil war there more likely. AQ in the Mediterranean is busy fighting against Gaddafi and the Moroccan king. As the U.S. moves out AQ in Iraq will be looking for a fresh fight with the government there and may also get busy with Syria.
The “west” is therefore unlikely to feel an immediate backlash from Osama’s (perceived) death. The blow-back that will come will be indirect as the consequence of a further destabilizing Pakistan.