It seems that a decision has been made to invade Libya. It possibly was the plan all along. The troops to do so are getting lined up as I write and, even more important, the propaganda case for "humanitarian intervention" is getting build.
The plan is to attack Gaddafi's troops in Misurata and thereby cut Libya and the main coastal road in half. Gaddafi will probably be allowed to keep the western part with the capitol Tripoli but he will have to give up all of the eastern parts including the important oil cities Brega and Ras Lanuf. Currently Gaddafi loyals hold these cities but with the supply route cut by an invasion force they would have to surrender soon.
The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan went on "surge" deployment at the end of March from Norfolk. It is likely to be accompanied by the usual cruiser, a submarine and a support ship. The ship carries a marine detachment of some 1900 troops. The British amphibious assault ship HMS Albion left Plymouth on April 7 heading to the Mediterranean along with the frigate HMS Sutherland, soldiers from 40 Commando Royal Marines and a supply ship. The British marines often work together with the Dutch marines. Since 1973 there is a UK/NL Landing Forces within NATO. So I wonder where the Hr.Ms. Johan de Witt and its marine battalion currently is. The French also have good assault capabilities and are likely to join in.
Together those troops make up more than a full mechanized brigade with all the support they could ever need. Having air superiority that is enough to handle any force Gaddafi could put up should he suddenly behave dumb and decide to fight them in the open.
Unlike Gaddafi the rebels rejected the ceasefire the African Union was negotiating. A British and a U.S. envoy were standing next to the rebel leaders when that announcement was made.
The propaganda case gets build around the city of Misurata, which is still partly held by rebels under assault from Gaddafi loyalists. Human Rights Watch, always on the right side, is whining:
Gaddafi loyalists have also targeted a medical clinic in the besieged town, with even women, children and the elderly being murdered.
..
HRW quoted Dr. Muhammad el-Fortia, who is employed at Misrata Hospital, who stated that 257 people have been killed and 949 wounded and hospitalized since February 19 in the city. The wounded included 22 women and eight children.
The numbers actually show the opposite of what HRW wants to imply in the first sentences. If only 3% of the wounded are women and children it is certain that there are no intentional attacks on civilians. Out of 1.400 killed in Israel's 2008 war on Gaza at least 300, 20%, were children. That is was indiscriminate killing and attacks on clinics result in. Gaddafi's forces seem to be far more disciplined and are obviously fighting mostly male rebels.
France and Britain claim that NATO is "not doing enough". Well, NATO is doing what the UNSC resolution allows and even a bit more than that. But these insults are just to build pressure on other NATO countries.
The European Union is pressing the United Nations to allow an EUFOR Libya military support mission for "humanitarian aid" to Misurata. So far the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affair rejected such a mission saying there is no need for it.
That is certainly right. Three days ago a Red Cross ship docked in Misurata with medical supplies and earlier a Turkish ship evacuated hundreds of wounded. This was done without military escorts and without problems.
But with some more NGO "reports" and alarming anonymous phone calls to Aljazeerah, Gaddafi's assault on rebels will be propagandized into being an all out war against the population. The UN will get pressed to allow intervention and the first few soldiers will be put on the ground to protect a "humanitarian mission".
Those soldiers will be shot at immediately, it will not matter by whom, and that will require a "rescue mission" which then comes from the amphibious assault ships and their marines battalions. Misurata will get occupied and the coastal road cut. With the help from the CIA and various special operation forces the rebels will then renew their attacks from the eastern city Benghazi towards Brega and Ras Lanuf. With Gaddafi loyals there cut off from resupply the rebels chances to take those cities will be easier than in their first failed attempts.
After that the next step can be taken. The institution of a "western" occupying force under a different label.