Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 28, 2011
More Change In The Middle East

Congratulation to Hamas and Fatah for their unity deal. Until the Egyptian revolution the Egyptian head of intelligence, Omar Suleiman, had monopolized and sabotaged the unity negotiations on orders from the United States.

With Suleiman and Mubarak gone, the deal was rather easy to make. Fatah and Hamas will create a unity government and will, in eight month, hold new parliament and presidential elections.

The U.S. and Israel will do their best to sabotage the deal. The first by withholding money (and thereby making itself more irrelevant) and the second likely by some kind of force. Currently the Israelis say that they will not negotiate with any government that includes Hamas. So what. They did not negotiate with a Palestinian government that did not included Hamas so the threat is actually in keeping the status quo.

The Egyptian revolution may not have brought much new yet for the Egyptian people, but the already visible foreign policy changes, topmost the exchange of ambassadors with Iran, are huge. The “western” media talked down how much the general anti-Israel feeling was part of Tahrir Square. Now it is coming into full view. There were demonstrations against the Israeli embassy in Cairo yesterday and the pipeline that carries cheap Egyptian gas to Israel was blown up for a second time. The guy who sold the gas to Israel for a much too low price is now in jail. My bet is that Israel will have to get used to live without that energy source.

Despite the Saudi-U.S. counter-revolution efforts, more changes will come to the Middle East.

Today a bomb blew up in a tourist restaurant in Marrakesh. After protests in February and March the Moroccan king has pledged some constitutional reforms and released some political prisoners. But the people are not yet convinced that real reforms will come. There were more protests, peaceful ones so far, over the last few days. Today’s explosion is likely a provocation (I have no idea from which side though) to attempt a change of the current peaceful contest. Morocco may be the next domino to fall.

Comments

more changes will come to the Middle East.
Well, well. What a difference a week makes, eh b?
Anyhow, bold prediction. Like predicting that a pornographic film will include naked people.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 28 2011 17:34 utc | 1

@ Posted by: slothrop
If you have nothing constructive to add to the debate, why do you bother?
PFO

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Apr 28 2011 19:12 utc | 2

Well, last week b insisted that the “Arab Spring” was basically over — in like a lion, out like a lamb. But this week, changes changes changes; except for the fake revolutions in Syria and Libya.
I really don’t understand the vacillation. As long as he sticks to the master fukUS narrative, then the analysis is really simple.
b digs dictators. That’s pretty courageous, when you think about it. I just wish he was a little more consistent.

Posted by: slothrop | Apr 28 2011 19:33 utc | 3

It was a good coup by the Palestinians. Netanyahu was left without response, other than to say that Ramallah can negotiate with Israel, or with Gaza. Pointless, as he is offering nothing to Ramallah, and everyone knows it.
Mahmoud Abbas feels that he is at the end of his mandate, so he tells the truth. Netanyahu should have already organised a pliable successor. I think he was taken by surprise.

Posted by: alexno | Apr 28 2011 19:37 utc | 4

Watching the Israeli (and American) fury over the announcement is stunning. They clearly never expected their poodle to bite them in the ass. I was skeptical that this deal would hold even through the signing ceremony, but Israel’s clumsy reaction convinces me they think it is deadly serious.

Posted by: Bill | Apr 28 2011 19:47 utc | 5

On your previous post, b, on Syria, in general I agree with you. It is highly questionable whether the majority will go with the rebels or with the state. Among the Syrians that I know, it is much in doubt. In spite of the deaths, some don’t want change, at least one is in rebellion because of the deaths of his relatives in Der’a.
Very mixed.

Posted by: alexno | Apr 28 2011 20:29 utc | 6

Without a change of language in the Hamas Charter, I don’t see much hope for change. Even with a change, Israel will continue to drag their feet since the US, their biggest benefactor, will NEVER put real pressure on them to agree to statehood. Maybe there is some hope the UN will act on the issue, but I doubt it. There can never be peace in the region without statehood and a return to the ’67 borders. Given the amount of settlements built since ’67, I guess I’d have to believe there will never be real peace in my lifetime.

Posted by: ben | Apr 28 2011 21:38 utc | 7

haaretz Egypt FM: Gaza border crossing to be permanently opened
!!!!!!!!

Posted by: annie | Apr 29 2011 3:15 utc | 8

annie @ 8: Some good news. Thanks for the link.

Posted by: ben | Apr 29 2011 3:50 utc | 9

re morocco – not sure if this fits into the escalating threat to the united states’ oldest ally (monarchy) in the region — and beyond — but there’s an article i do not have access to in thursday’s african intelligence newsletter, the teaser for which reads: US Air Force invades Guelmim

The U.S. military seems to have moved into the far southern part of Morocco. For the past two months, dozens of US Air Force (USAF) officers in uniform have turned up at the small airport of Guelmim which is mainly used by the Moroccan armed forces.

curious as to what the remaining 145 words in that report state as a context for the activity over “the past two months” – is it tied to the war on libya? keeping a lid on the spring in morocco? or something else?
guelmim is slightly north of tan tan (zoom out on the linked map), which has long been a focus for AFRICOM basing in that part of the continent. the airport at guelmim may be small, but not as small as the airfield at tan tan. no parked aircraft at either show up on the current google satellite views.

Posted by: b real | Apr 29 2011 4:15 utc | 10

swan song: http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/04/201142610292566910.html

Posted by: somebody | Apr 29 2011 4:47 utc | 11

Fatah will eventually find them standing on shifting sands or be forced into civil war. This time the war will be fought in the cities of the west bank. Not Gaza.

Posted by: Atlanta Roofing | Apr 29 2011 5:40 utc | 12

ben, “peace in the region” is not part of the strategy. So long as the spice is valued dearly, peace will be verboten. If, and when, the spice no longer holds any value, peace will once again return to this beautifully barren landscape.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Apr 29 2011 11:23 utc | 13

Wow, if I didn’t know better, I’d say Israel is being set up. Of course, my theory is that Israel was always a set up, but we are now approaching a phase in which the set up must be seriously challenged. It may, and most probably will, be nasty for all sides, but the writing is on the wall.
Will nukes fly? That’s the question mark for me. I believe they will…..and that will be the end of Israel and Palestine.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Apr 29 2011 11:29 utc | 14

MB @ 13: Would tend to agree that the “spice” is a large factor, but, so is statehood and borders. I think THAT problem will continue, no matter what. You cannot occupy a people’s homeland without problems “spice” or no “spice.”

Posted by: ben | Apr 29 2011 15:13 utc | 15

somebody @11 — Nice find.

War is a train that once boarded is very difficult to get off at the station you prefer, and which is headed to a new and unknown destination.

Oh, how bloody true.

Posted by: jawbone | Apr 29 2011 18:08 utc | 16

@ben – Without a change of language in the Hamas Charter, I don’t see much hope for change.
Let me correct that for you.
“Without a change of language in the Likud Charter, I don’t see much hope for change.”

The following are excerpts from the ‘Peace & Security’ chapter of the Likud Party platform.

Declaration of a State
A unilateral Palestinian declaration of the establishment of a Palestinian state will constitute a fundamental and substantive violation of the agreements with the State of Israel and the scuttling of the Oslo and Wye accords. The government will adopt immediate stringent measures in the event of such a declaration.
Settlements
The Jewish communities in Judea, Samaria and Gaza are the realization of Zionist values. Settlement of the land is a clear expression of the unassailable right of the Jewish people to the Land of Israel and constitutes an important asset in the defense of the vital interests of the State of Israel. The Likud will continue to strengthen and develop these communities and will prevent their uprooting.

Self-Rule
The Government of Israel flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan river.
The Palestinians can run their lives freely in the framework of self-rule, but not as an independent and sovereign state. Thus, for example, in matters of foreign affairs, security, immigration and ecology, their activity shall be limited in accordance with imperatives of Israel’s existence, security and national needs.

Hamas has offered a ten year truce to Israel, to be prolonged indefinitely, in the framework of the Saudi 2002 initiative. That is sufficient for now.

Posted by: b | Apr 29 2011 18:54 utc | 17