Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 17, 2011
March 17 Update On The Fukushima Reactors

There is no even less information coming from the operator of the Fokushima Daiichi plant, Tepco, as well as of the government authorities. They are no reporting any of the all important details and are spinning every issue in a ridiculous positive view.  The IAEA, under a Japanese secretary general, isn't much better with even its webserver going down for half a day yesterday and any information on the Japan situation hard to find on it even when it is up.

Action on the ground seems to be chaotic and is missing leadership and decisive will. Japan is a major industrial nation with a big machinery and shipping industry but seems to be organizational incapable to timely provide for mobile generators, high pressure pumps and knowledgeable personal to help in the nuclear emergency.

The U.S. government is calling the radiation levels "extremely high" and advised its nationals to stay away at least 80 kilometer (50 miles) from the damaged plant.

Recent developments:

Recent measurements taken during helicopter overflights 300 m above the ground (240 m above the reactor roof) showed radiation of 4,130 microSievert per hour, in 100 m height above ground they showed  87,700 microSievert per hour (natural background depending on location is below 0.1). The measurments are consistent with large amounts of uncovered and exposed nuclear material. 

Japanese Self Defense Force helicopters tried four times to drop 7.5 tons of seawater each onto the unit no. 3 spent fuel pond (full capacity 2,000 tons of water). Video from the operation shows the water mostly missing its target as the helicopter are flying much too fast and too high to be able to hit the appropriate spot. A rather ridiculous operation.

There are plans to use riot police water cannons to spray the reactors and to fill the fuel ponds. As these are some 30+ meters above ground it is unlikely that the pumps in the truck will have enough power and capacity for this to be effective.

A new land line is getting laid to provide electricity to the site.

Status information on the reactor units (unfortunately most of it is over half a day old):


There are six reactor units at the Daiichi plant, three of them are loaded with fuel and were active when the quake hit. Each plant has a spent fuel pond above the reactor core and outside of the primary containment. Once used, nuclear fuel continues to produce heat due to decay and requires continued water cooling.

Unit no. 1 – Water level inside the reactor core was measured at 1.8 meters below the top of the fuel rods. The fuel rods the core are thereby only half covered by water. Partial fuel meltdown. Spent fuel pond exposed after hydrogen explosion.

Unit no. 2 – Water level inside the reactor core was measured at 1.4 meters below the top of the fuel rods. Partial fuel meltdown. Primary containment likely to have been breached. Pressure measurement for the reactor core/primary containment disabled due to lack of battery power.

Unit no. 3 – The water level inside the reactor core was measured at 1.9 meters below the top of the fuel rods. Partial fuel meltdown. Primary containment probably breached. Spent fuel pond exposed after hydrogen explosion. White smoke (steam) is still emitting from this block but much less than yesterday.

Unit no. 4 – According to U.S. authorities the spent fuel pond has run dry. It contains at least 548 fuel assemblies that were in use at the reactor until last November and are thereby still very hot. The fuel is likely to have melted and may penetrate through the metal and concrete basin. Spent fuel pond exposed after hydrogen explosion and fire. The operating company Tepco spokesperson said there is "no particular problem" at the pond as flybys by military helicopters are claimed to have observed water in that pond. I seriously doubt this to be correct.

Unit no. 5 and no. 6 – Temperature in the spent fuel storage pool increased from 60.4 °C to 62.7 °C and 58.5 °C to 60.0 °C within the last 24 hours (100.0 °C = boiling temperature, normal status below 25.0 °C). The water levels decreased but the fuel is still covered.

Two people are missing and two were "suddenly taken ill" at the reactor emergency operation in Fukoshima

I have read some reports/comments which claim that northern Japan will become inhabitable etc. Such is utter nonsense. Japan's main island, Honshu, alone is bigger than Great Britain. The current 20km range evacuation zone and the effected area is a rather tiny spot of the land mass.

About a half million people have been evacuated because of quake and tsunami damage as well as for probable radiation problems in the Fukoshima area. There are food and fuel shortages in the disaster area.

Temperatures overnight were in the slightly freezing range and there was some snow fall. Emergency shelters have heating problems. The wind is currently blowing towards southeast blowing any fallout out to the Pacific but is expected to turn south later on Friday.

The Yen is now at a record high – something the Japanese export economy currently doesn't need.

What is needed now is a serious massive operation to drop hundreds of tons of sand and borsilicate onto the spend fuel ponds and the reactor cores. This could stop further massive radiation being open to the environment. Plans will have to be made to put the reactors 1 to 4 into Chernobyl like sarcophaguses.

Additional resources:
AllThingsNuclear Union of Concerned Scientists
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Digital Globe Sat Pictures
IAEA Newscenter
NISA Japanese Nuclear Regulator
Japan Atomic Industry Forum (regular updates)
Japanese government press releases in English
Kyodo News Agency
Asahi Shimbun leading Japanese newspaper in English
NHK World TV via Ustream

In German language – Status report for the German Federal Government by the Gesellschaft für Reaktorsicherheit

Comments

This page has a couple of links that you might find useful.
[The geiger measurement in Tokyo are on row 13 (東京都(新宿区))]

Posted by: Philippe | Mar 17 2011 7:26 utc | 1

No news is good news? Or a news blackout? It’s the first morning I wake up and the situation isn’t worse than the day before.
Now it seems there are even 45 people affected by the accident, 20 with some kind of radiology poisoning. And the most weird bit: two people disappeared. What else are they hiding?

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 9:22 utc | 2

A commentator for Asahi Shimbun is calling for sacrifice: Time for decisive action at Fukushima

However, the cooling of the reactor core has to be continued by all means. If the core continues to be damaged, it could lead to the emission of large amounts of radioactive materials.
When a criticality accident occurred in 1999 at a facility in Tokai, Ibaraki Prefecture, of JCO Co., a nuclear fuel reprocessing company, work was required under high radiation levels in order to prevent nuclear fuel from reaching a critical state.
The work was carried out by teams of two people. Each group only had about three minutes to run to where the accident occurred, do their work and return. The work was completed by nine groups.
The maximum level of radiation exposure incurred by an individual at that time was 103 millisieverts, which exceeded the 100-millisievert upper limit for workers in emergency situations.
The maximum exposure figure is equivalent to 70 years of the Japanese average for natural radiation exposure, but that was incurred in only three minutes.
Nuclear power is a technology which inevitably requires such dangerous work. Large radioactive contamination could make the land uninhabitable.
During the Chernobyl accident in 1986, sand was poured from the air by helicopter over the exposed reactor core. On the ground, many people worked at close range to the crippled reactor. However, the massive discharge of radioactive materials was stopped in one week.
Without that death-defying effort, the world would have been contaminated to a greater degree.

Fitting – some memories by someone who was there: On Chernobyl

Posted by: b | Mar 17 2011 9:31 utc | 3

Weird culture: A Nuclear Reactor Explained by Poop and Farts: Nuclear Reactor Boy’s Tummy Ache – amine video

Posted by: b | Mar 17 2011 9:38 utc | 4

My limited knowledge of the Japanese government and bureaucracy may be misleading but I’m not sure they have the capacity to react to this kind of incident on a timely and effective way. Japan is barely what we understand as a ‘democracy’ here in the EU or US. The current Prime Minister (which comes from a party that reached power recently after the same basically party ruling Japan since WW2, and this one in itself it’s just a split of that older party) likely has more limited effective power than we think it has. Japan is controlled by a big old fossilized bureaucracy (and as corrupted or corruptible as anywhere else) and big industrial and economic corporations. The Emperor is a pseudo-religious figure with no power. By culture and existing organization he could be both incapable or in willing to implement the action required to solve this. And I don’t know what it’s the real influence or power of the Japanese Self Defense Force on daily stuff.
For use looking from outside this clearly requires emergency time rules and actions. The kind that require sacrifice and a military dictatorship in Russia could effectively implement. But I’m quite worried there is none in Japan capable of giving that kind of orders until it becomes too late. In fact if they had reacted much more proactively since day one or two, or at least when the first reactor blowed off, even emergency action may had not required as much sacrifice. Now even flying above with helicopters seems to be too dangerous.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 11:09 utc | 5

The Paper – Agreed – the decision making process is opaque and very slow. The regulation agency is actually part of the economy ministry and its job is more propagandizing nuclear reactors than to regulate them.

After the for-show helicopter water drop this morning the military tried to spray water onto the unit no.3 by firetrucks. It stopped after one hour as all the little water it could pump simply vaporized.
An attempt to reach unit no.4 with firetrucks was aborted because of high radiation.

Posted by: b | Mar 17 2011 11:57 utc | 6

The excellent Adam Curtis plugs one of his earlier documentaries (Pandoras Box – A is for Atom):

The film shows that from very early on – as early as 1964 – US government officials knew that there were serious potential dangers with the design of the type of reactor that was used to build the Fukushima Daiichi plant. But that their warnings were repeatedly ignored.[…]And in 1971 the Atomic Energy Commission did a series of tests of Emergency Core Cooling systems. Accidents were simulated. In each case the emergency systems worked – but the water failed to fill the core. Often being forced out under pressure.
As one of the AEC scientists says in the film:
“We discovered that our theoretical calculations didn’t have a strong correlation with reality. But we just couldn’t admit to the public that all these safety systems we told you about might not do any good”

Haven’t seen that one, but several others made by Curtis which were outstanding. Video available on the linked page.

Posted by: Lex | Mar 17 2011 12:11 utc | 7

The Paper @ 2, that sounds familiar. Say, like, the Philadelphia Experiment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChjyCR8V2Bg

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Mar 17 2011 12:51 utc | 8

It is already evening/night in Japan and the only thing they managed to do today seems to have been the drop of some 20 tons of water next to the no.3 reactor and, using five military airport crash tender, hosing some 30 tons of water somewhere onto no.3.
The riot police water cannon was, as I had expected, not able to reach high enough to be useful.
Now if they would use those airport crash tenders in a serious way, with changing crews and continuous operation those could probably even do something good. At least at no.3. But they did not do this. One run each for each machine and it was over.
On TV they say the radiation limit for soldiers in emergencies is 100 millisievert. (Funny – for Tepco workers it is now 250.) How long do they think they stick to that with three reactors and at least two fuel pools in meltdown? Do they believe these thingies will heal themselves? It will not – the problem will get bigger by the hour. Why don’t they get it?

Posted by: b | Mar 17 2011 13:15 utc | 9

Why don’t they get it?
I could get all conspiratorial and say they are letting it melt purposely as part of a population reduction plan.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Mar 17 2011 14:01 utc | 10

Who knows, perhaps with the facts they don’t seem to be able to explain to the world they think or it’s really not that serious. But four destroyed or burned down reactors (at least on the surface), high radiation levels on site, statements about some of the cores core being fused and wasted fuel being exposed, the worse nuclear accident on record since Chernobyl, don’t give that impression to the rest of the world. There is a clear dissonance between Japanese statements and actions and the fears of the rest of the world.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 14:23 utc | 11

b@3..The Chernobyl link is an eye-opener, As a West coaster, I’m starting to believe they haven’t a clue about solving anything.
Nero fiddles, while Rome burns. Thanks all for the links.

Posted by: Ben | Mar 17 2011 14:26 utc | 12

The Paper @5
what you say throws some light on the most important and least examined aspect of this crisis management: it seems no one is ready to take responsibility
in today’s societies, legal aspects are overwhelming; fear of subsequent legal reprisal by victims’ relatives must be chilling; after Chernobyl, the soviet government distributed some money to the families, medals, and that was it
but compensations aside, how can you manage a crisis of such entity, without a clear call for action and sacrifice?
there’s also an ominous parallel with the crisis in the Gulf of Mexico a few months ago: a sovereign government setting up a command and response center, then politely asking for, and waiting for, precise up-to-date information from the very private entity responsible for the disaster; unthinkable, 20 or 30 years ago
in western democracies, political power’s status, role and sense of dignity has sunk beyond the imaginable – it can’t be all the corporations’ fault, there’s something wrong more in depth

Posted by: claudio | Mar 17 2011 14:31 utc | 13

Tepco now says that the providing electricity to the plant by a new powerline, which was to happen earlier today, was delayed because of the one hour fire truck hosing operation and will only be finished sometime tomorrow. It also said that it is “evaluating” the fire truck operation. I’ll bet that will take them a day or two.
These guys are crazy. Can’t they work in parallel?
When the powerline will be installed, I am sure they will only then come up with idea of checking the pumps of the secondary circulation system they will need and will find that those do not work anymore. That will have to “evaluated” too. The circulation pumps then might eventually get repaired, start and will die after half an hour because the are not able to cope with the seawater that was filled into the reactors over the last days through the fire extinguisher lines.
Eventually they will watch TV and see a stream of corium lava running into the sea creating a steam explosion. After serious evaluations will recognize that there might be a slight chance that they had a total meltdown.
Then it will be time to apologize to the public for having a problem and to fire a secondary engineer.

Posted by: b | Mar 17 2011 14:57 utc | 14

A very sad moment for Japan. First the earth quake and Tsunami created a lot of problems for the people of Japan now this reactor is causing a huge damage. Lets hope that this problem is soon sorted by the government before it creates more problem.

Posted by: Leads | Mar 17 2011 15:06 utc | 15

Video of the reactors from an helicopter

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 15:24 utc | 16

I can just understand a bit of what they are saying (years of watching anime) but seems to be mostly obvious observations like the amount of destruction and ‘white smoke’ (shiroi kemuri) coming out of reactors three and four. The footage comes from a JAT? (Japanese Self Defense Force) helicopter. Could try to make a better effort of a translation but I doubt it pays off …

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 15:30 utc | 17

WTF. From Kyodo.

— Reactor No. 4 – Under maintenance when quake struck, fire Tuesday possibly caused by hydrogen explosion at pool holding spent fuel rods, abnormal temperature rise in spent-fuel storage pool, fire observed Wednesday at building housing reactor, pool water level feared receding, renewed nuclear chain reaction feared.

No wonder people is freaking out. And in the Guardian live blog initially quoting microSv as miliSv. This is a fucking (dis)information mess. Whatever the truth the explosions, the external destruction, the smoke, the uncertainty make the fear and horror level to run very high. It’s completely surreal.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 16:09 utc | 18

@16 – Thanks for the video – the Japanese NHK showed only short parts of it.
No 3 and 4 look trashed – I doubt that any pump or valve or gauge in there is still working as it should.
But wait, officially we only know of a 1 1/2 hour fire in no.4 form some “oil at a pump” and two holes in the wall of 26 square feet …
Looks actually different to me, but I am not a Tepco president, so who knows.

The stopped the airport fire trucks now “because it was getting dark”. No one ever thought of bringing in some emergency lighting? Even the small voluntary fire services in my country do have several kilowatts of emergency lights. Tepco obviously hasn’t …

@18 – a real possibility, the fuel was removed for maintenance from no.4 and at least 2/3 of that was supposed to go back in. If all the fuel in the pond melts and accumulates at one place at the bottom there will likely be a critical mass the will heat itself up pretty fast. Then we can be sure to see some corium lava …

Posted by: b | Mar 17 2011 17:21 utc | 19

Is just a like a radiography?
I’m starting to get really scared even if it’s just because I don’t understand what, how and why is happening.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 17 2011 17:50 utc | 20

There’s recently been some color added to the otherwise drab German political landscape…
Guenther Oettinger, the European Union’s energy chief, said back in November that global oil availability has already peaked. Now he is calling for “stress tests” to be done on all nuclear plants throughout Europe.
Then early this week, the German Secretary of State Guido Westerwelle used the term “apocalypse” to describe what is happening in Japan, triggering a substantial sell-off on Wall Street.
By Wednesday, Geiger counters were all sold out across German.
And finally today, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Germany will gradually wean itself off of nuclear power.
Either the Germans are hysterical and overreaching on this or they have access to very sensitive intel from Japan. Germany was and is a close ally of Japan. There are very strong historical ties between the two nations on a diplomatic and political level that the US will never be able to establish.
Putting this all together, hysteria is too painful to handle without being Comfortably Numb:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wtiNzci1Wc

Posted by: Cynthia | Mar 17 2011 20:54 utc | 21

Today’s NYT story on biz execs fleeing Tokyo indicates an awareness that toxic radiation can cross class lines.
Other than Chernobyl, which provided an opportunity to embarrass the Soviet system, I don’t recall the MSM ever acknowledging that the release of radiation from an accident at a nuclear plant could present a serious hazard.
Given the realities of ‘regulatory capture’ and pay-to-play policy making, perhaps the establishment will conclude that, if nuclear energy has a future at all, it must be restricted to the governmental or not-for-profit sectors.

Posted by: Watson | Mar 17 2011 21:56 utc | 22

Let’s face facts: the employees of TEPCO don’t want to die. They are not ready to go in, and settle the problem. At Chernobyl, they went in and they died. The Japanese are not ready to do that.
The water bombing of the reactors was a good sign. Useless.
It may be that intervention from a safe distance will succeed. But could be useless.
Now we hear that the electricity supply is being reconnected; why didn’t the happen before?

Posted by: alexno | Mar 17 2011 22:31 utc | 23

@claudio #13:
The deference of government officials to BP in the Gulf disaster is likely a byproduct of NAFTA. Now, the corporation is the sovereign party, and may take legal action if a government action impinges on the corporation’s right to make a profit. The PTB in this f***ed-up country were warned that this would be a problem, but I think they could only see as far as maybe being sued for implementing import tariffs on tennis shoes…not being sued for forcing compliance with safety regulations designed to protect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people.

Posted by: Dr. Wellington Yueh | Mar 17 2011 23:50 utc | 24

alexno @23 and WY @24
I think these aspects are related; people won’t sacrifice themselves at the call of a private entity defending its business;
what’s needed in times of crisis is a strong political power, capable of providing direction and a sense of common purpose to the people; and I’m not thinking only of Japan’s current nuclear crisis;
legal obstacles to political action are an aspect of this privatization tendency; but I think that they are more an excuse for the sloth of our weak politicians than a real impediment
so in Japan we are witnessing a slow descent into chaos, where the potentially immense social reaction is funneled through Tepco’ sense of expedience, legal responsibilities, calculations on costs and refunds, self-image, etc

Posted by: claudio | Mar 18 2011 0:13 utc | 25

Some guy on CNN just said that when the radioactive particles from Japan get here, they will be “less radiational.” After we survive the fallout, who will save us from our news media?
Hell, who will survive our education system? I remember many years ago now, Billmon talking about the movie, Idiocracy, but the sad truth is, it’s worse…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Mar 18 2011 1:31 utc | 26

While one would/should expect the place to be crawling with high tech robots and video cameras everywhere, alas this is the utility company and we are talking about 70’s technology.
The press conferences by Tepco (mid management and staff) are actually getting very informative. Senior management are nowhere to be seen, and they are expected to be hiding and hoped to be not anywhere near the action.
The cabinet secretary is doing a very decent job of giving only objective verifiable information.
All in all considering the scope of the problem of six nuclear reactors (insane decision to have them in the same place) in various stages of precariousness it would appear that they are in fact coping well. The reason that there is no general stampede (except for those given scary instructions from their respective homelands) is not because of misinformation. Unless one counts speculation about unknown situations as truth. In any case a generalized stampede will be more lethal than the invisible radioactive stuff that may blow through.
The contrast between native observers and the western press on both the tsunami aftermath and the nuke business is quite alarmingly different. I tend to believe those that are local than blow-in’s looking for drama.

Posted by: YY | Mar 18 2011 3:46 utc | 27

One more easy reference source. This site seems to be following the developments at Fukushima, as they become available, as well as anyone. Seems to understand the industry pretty well and explains for the lay public. He is certainly not an alarmist, but not entirely uncritical either. Reports the present aim with electricity cables is to hook up electricity to #2 first. Finds it unlikely that #3 cooling system, in particular, is intact. Some simple pix, charts and sketches included.
atomic power review

Posted by: smoke | Mar 18 2011 5:13 utc | 28