How much is the "Green Movement" in Iran a product of covert U.S. activities?
Cyrus Safdari at Iran Affairs made an interesting find which may help to answer that question.
A document by the Democracy Council (a U.S. government cover operation?) marked "FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY: NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION" was leaked on Scribt but soon removed. A copy is here: CONCEPT NOTE – TAASH COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK [TCN]: VIRTUAL SANCTUARY FOR IRANIAN CIVIL SOCIETY (pdf).
The ten page paper describes a "secure" internet system which could be used as a central hub for all media activities of the Iranian opposition.
Taash Communications Network (TCN), developed by the Democracy Council (the Council) in collaboration with the leading representatives from the Green Movement, will help to meet this demand by providing the first robust, multilevel (internet, web, mobile, and satellite broadcast) communications channel for regionally produced progressive (uncensored) content and communications. TCN will operate as branded technological distribution portal platform) made available to independent content and communications produced by and for progressive and reform – minded Iranians.
The system would be "owned" by a European cover entity and would be "secure" versus the Iranian government. But all traffic going through it would of course be monitored by the "Democracy Council".
The "Democracy Council" is already running similar activities. On page 9 of the paper it proudly boosts:
The Council has implemented programming to support online social networking in Iran and currently maintains a strong network of internal activists, including the Green Movement, whose leaders have requested direct support from DC to develop its communications strategy and online capabilities. DC project staff includes the producers and hosts of VOA Persian News Network Technology shows with a focus on digital activism, and internet & mobile access. Their Facebook page attracts 500,000 hits per month inside Iran. In collaboration with VOA PNN, DC staff developed a Persian iPhone and Android application.
As Cyrus analyzes:
All this goes to show two things, frankly: Iran affairs is in the hand of amateurs, and the Green Movement apparently DOES have foreign backing. In my humble opinion, these sorts of information warfare campaigns directed against Iran are silly and mostly just self-serving. If they have any persuasive effect, it is in the US rather than in Iran, and even there it is largely negative because it creates a sort of dogma about the Green Movement that may be favored by certain exiles and their wishful thinking, but has no real relationship to Iranians inside Iran. See, the people of Iran don't lack for information. They have had years of this sort of media campaigns directed towards them. They're not fooled. But the "blowback" (deliberate?) of these sorts of campaigns creates a certain narrative and conventional wisdom that (is meant to) box policymakers in the US when dealing with Iran. Afterall, that's why you see so many articles which doth protest too much that the Green Movement is alive and the "Jasmin Revolutions" sweeping across Arab countries not only do not work in Iran's favor but will ultimately topple the Islamic Republic etc. Rubbish.
Feel free to sleuth through the paper. There are several names of opposition figures as well as "Democracy Council" helpers in there which deserve some further googleing.