If the Americans have any sense, they’ll do nothing more than covertly providing weapons. Stingers would be nice, or whatever has succeeded them. Though I doubt they would supply anything that might knock down a US plane, or might be transferred on, out of US control. Actually old soviet weaponry would be fine to fight the Gaddafi mercenaries – the latter are not very efficient as far as I can see.

Posted by: alexno | Mar 3 2011 21:01 utc | 3

seamus milne

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Mar 3 2011 21:15 utc | 5

Why no revolution in Iran?

In short, like France, Russia, and China, Iran has constructed a highly centralized and flexible state apparatus which enables it to better handle domestic uprisings. In addition, like these other states, Iran has emerged out of its revolutionary crisis with a higher standing on the international scale. That is to say, Tehran is no longer at a transnational disadvantage, and thus the transnational conditions for a successful uprising in Iran no longer exist to begin with

The comments are interesting.

Posted by: slothrop | Mar 3 2011 23:20 utc | 7

The Milne article you linked from the Guardian hits it right on the head, R’Giap. Hopefully the USA will rush into armed involvement in Libya with the same speed and precision it has finalized a national budget for the current year. (In other words, never!)

Posted by: Maxcrat | Mar 4 2011 1:12 utc | 9

The Marvelous Mug might as well throw in the towel now. This is the straw that broke the camel jockey’s back. Beyonce and Carey have now turned their back on Libya’s gorgeous, charismatic leader.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/03/us-beyonce-gaddafi-idUSTRE72243Q20110303

Singers Beyonce and Mariah Carey have sought to distance themselves from the tainted Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, for whose entourage they both performed at glitzy New Year’s eve parties.
They joined Canadian artist Nelly Furtado, who used her Twitter account on Monday to declare she would give away the $1 million she received to perform a 45-minute set in Italy for Gaddafi’s family in 2007.
Pop stars’ association with Gaddafi and his sons has caused considerable embarrassment this week as the Libyan ruler orders a brutal crackdown on an uprising against his rule.
The music press has highlighted how artists including Beyonce and Carey have earned large paydays for sometimes brief appearances at lavish parties hosted by Gaddafi family members, including his son Muatassim. The stars have faced calls from fans and the public to give back the money they made.

Posted by: Morocco Bama | Mar 4 2011 14:15 utc | 11

Libya is not helped by this prism of propaganda

Media talk of tank battles and swooping bombers is inflating an already serious situation – with dangerous consequences

@r’giap what’s your feeling then b on the effect of the revolutionary situation in libya affecting the other continuing arab revolts
Not much. The eastern rebellion in Libya does not look convincing or even promising to me. It might evolve into a split of the country, but I doubt that so far. Unless of course the U.S. intervenes and makes everything, inevitably, worse.

Posted by: b | Mar 4 2011 17:13 utc | 13

A split is what seems more likely at this point, with no external influence, because neither side has the capability to mount the kind of campaign required to traverse 1000 km through a desert road with just a few scattered towns on the way.
I have been looking on Google Maps the road from Brega (which was attacked yesterday) all the way up to Sirte and beyond. It’s a very long way just to get to Sirte with a few small towns. Incredible long supply line for a rag tag militia or even regular Gaddafi forces without backing in the region. And it’s not just getting into Sirte or bypassing it, on the road linking up to Misrata there is a city called Al Qaddahiyah so it’s easy to guess who controls the whole region. Basically Gaddafi forces, if they really still have internal support (and capturing three dutch soldiers at Sirte prove they have full control there), have the capability of cutting the west and east without much problems.
Today the anti-Gaddafi faction seems to have taken the next town after Brega, Ras Lanuf, who was previously on their control (but with no real force protecting it). Those two towns control the access to oil and gas ports so they will be likely the future front line. From there to Ajdabiyah and from there to Benghazi there is a sustainable supply line and there is currently a flow of anti-Gaddafi fighters (likely the more aggressive bunch, not the ones waiting and asking for the a foreign air force to bomb their way up to Tripoli).
On the west unless Gaddafi forces are weaker than we know, or there are further desertions or change of sides from tribes/units, they have much more resources, time and weapons to be taking one by one all the cities and town that are in control of anti-Gaddafi forces. They control the roads and can concentrate forces on one after the other while the anti-Gaddafi faction don’t seem to have the capability to link with each other.
On long term it will depend if the East is recognized as a separated entity and becomes supplied with weapons (financed by oil if they are able to control part of it) or not. If they remain as today the Gaddafi side will have the time and resources to take it over by buying up their old pals there that have deserted him now or sending a full military campaign. But obviously external influence won’t let that to happen.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 4 2011 19:09 utc | 15

The eastern rebellion in Libya does not look convincing or even promising to me. It might evolve into a split of the country, but I doubt that so far. Unless of course the U.S. intervenes and makes everything, inevitably, worse.
Well at least we agree on one thing, b: without outside help, it’s unlikely the rebels will win.

Posted by: Night Owl | Mar 4 2011 19:42 utc | 17

Night Owl, I don’t support the US/UK/NATO getting involved on this. There is no such thing as a NFZ without ground bombing and only someone very naive could believe they would stop just at ‘air defense’ or airport roadways. I have read reports about supposed anti-Gaddafi representatives in Benghazi asking for ‘air support’. That’s not just a NFZ. Of course a lot of what is being written in the media may be propaganda from one side or other.
The other thing is that I don’t really see the very limited, and from some reports ineffective, use up to this point of air force by the pro-Gaddafi faction as very threatening for the anti-Gaddafi side in the East. Of course the pro-Gaddafi faction could be just avoiding more western criticism or whatever but from the facts in the ground the media, or some media, has given excessive importance to the supposed and unproven dangers of the Gaddafi’s air force capabilities. They are killing a lot of more people in the west cities and towns with ‘simple’ machine guns and pickup trucks.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 4 2011 21:13 utc | 19

brussels tribunal – iraq’s days of rage

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Mar 5 2011 0:47 utc | 21

In the speech I saw today, Obama is laying down a rationale for US intervention; and looking at CNN today, turning to saturation persuasion techniques, sheer spectacle, it looks like the joints and sinews of the empire are working toward the dreadful decision to get involved , militarily.
What they are perhaps looking at, is some version of palace coup, in the end. Nothing, in short, that benefits the Libyan people.

Posted by: Copeland | Mar 5 2011 5:21 utc | 23

Critical battle in Az Zawiya right now. With his recent losses at the in the east at Brega and apparently now at Ras Lanuf, Q needs to hang on to this last major oil and gas terminal so he can keep raising cash to pay his mercenaries and resupply.
If Q’s forces are repelled at Az Zawiya, expect to hear a lot more from Chavez about his ‘mediation’ plan.
good map here

Posted by: Night Owl | Mar 5 2011 16:06 utc | 25

I see that one or two here support the empire getting involved in Libya. Is there any place on the planet Earth that you think is “none of the business of the USA”? And another question would be, “do you really think USA involvement would help the people?”

Posted by: Joseph | Mar 5 2011 20:13 utc | 27

And not forgetting that now in Benghazi a second government claims to represent Libya.

Posted by: ThePaper | Mar 5 2011 20:49 utc | 29

well, this is embarrassing..MoD silent over report of SAS men captured in Libya

Posted by: dan of steele | Mar 6 2011 9:09 utc | 31

Did you know?
The anti-Khadafi forces were armed from almost the very beginning of the uprising and included elements of the military. Unlike the opponents of Egypt’s President Mubarak, we know very little about who these rebel Libyans are — except that they have been getting lots of material help from the Americans and the French and other Europeans. It is also becoming clearer by the day that a vicious, racist pogrom is raging against the 1.5 million sub-Saharan Black African migrant workers who do the hard jobs in Libya, work that is rejected by the relatively prosperous Libyans. Hundreds of Black migrant workers have already been killed by anti-Khadafi forces — yet the U.S. corporate media express absolutely no concern for their safety. One Western report noted that large numbers of Black Africans were seized in Benghazi and were assumed to have been hanged. That is a war crime, whether these men were soldiers or migrant workers, but the Western correspondent seemed unconcerned. One suspects there are many atrocities occurring in the rebel-held areas of Libya, especially against people that are not members of the locally dominant tribe. Benghazi is not Tahrir Square in Cairo.
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2011/ford030311.html

Posted by: brian | Mar 6 2011 22:17 utc | 33

r’giap 21. i have heard nothing of this. nothing. amazing link. thank you.

Posted by: annie | Mar 7 2011 6:19 utc | 35

the future of Libya?
‘ The anti-Khadafi forces were armed from almost the very beginning of the uprising and included elements of the military. Unlike the opponents of Egypt’s President Mubarak, we know very little about who these rebel Libyans are — except that they have been getting lots of material help from the Americans and the French and other Europeans. It is also becoming clearer by the day that a vicious, racist pogrom is raging against the 1.5 million sub-Saharan Black African migrant workers who do the hard jobs in Libya, work that is rejected by the relatively prosperous Libyans. Hundreds of Black migrant workers have already been killed by anti-Khadafi forces — yet the U.S. corporate media express absolutely no concern for their safety. One Western report noted that large numbers of Black Africans were seized in Benghazi and were assumed to have been hanged. That is a war crime, whether these men were soldiers or migrant workers, but the Western correspondent seemed unconcerned. One suspects there are many atrocities occurring in the rebel-held areas of Libya, especially against people that are not members of the locally dominant tribe. Benghazi is not Tahrir Square in Cairo.
http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2011/ford030311.html

Posted by: brian | Mar 7 2011 11:03 utc | 37

No more heroes Brian, the wannabe supreme ruler of Africa is a joke all over the continent http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6wI_BqaX8
One time he aspired to lead the Arab world, next he reinvented himself as a champion for Africa, like someone who’s been barred from a club trying to get down with the homies in the local sheebeens. Perhaps you see him as some kind of visionary, but he is not viewed in that light in ‘his own world’.

Posted by: Shebr shebr | Mar 7 2011 11:48 utc | 39

The following video, supporting the Libyan version of the following story, was found on You Tube and rebroadcasted here by Axis of Logic. It was shown on Libyan television and the voices and music are in Arabic. But the video alone tells the story.
The on-screen caption as shown on Libyan television states:
“According to the [Saudi-backed] broadcaster al-Arabiya, this helicopter was sent to rescue people, but we can see something else here.
“The helicopter flew into Libyan airspace and landed in Sirte without any permission from the authorities and this is in violation of international law.”
The BBC adds:
“Assault rifles, dollar notes, notebooks, pistols, mobile phones, bullets and ammunition, military-fatigue body armour, inflatable life jackets and a Sony digital camera are also shown off in the video.”
http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_62451.shtml
==================
no shebr, the only joke is the foolish people who have once againt been sucked in by the media propaganda offensive.
he neve renvented himself as an african champion…thats been his claom for ages.
who said hes the supreme ruler of africa?
But at least the fact that all you can do is ridicule his supposed pretensions shows thats all you can criticis him for…

Posted by: brian | Mar 7 2011 12:21 utc | 41